General Dynasty question here... (1 Viewer)

[FunkyPlutos]

Ok, this is a hypothetical because I don't have any of the top three picks in any of my rookie drafts, but just got to thinking about this one.

Let's say you have pick #2. You need RB help, but you don't really care for Lynch that much and you are in LOVE with CJ. Do you take the player you feel is far and away a sure bet, or do you go with the player that you aren't sure about but feel you should because he is a RB??

What are peoples' thoughts on this?

 

[phthalatemagic]

In this case Johnson warrants 1.02, but not usually. I depends on the scoring system and starting reqs as well.

 

[dirtyhalos]

<<---guilty

16 team idp, deep rosters start 1rb and 3wr with a flex potential of rb/te...i would be looking at starting vernon davis at the flex as we have a te premium scoring

rbs/wrs currently rostered

* Moss, Tyrone CLE RB - 7 FA

* Russell, Gary FA RB - - FA

* Young, Selvin DEN RB - 6 5.16

Bell, Tatum DET RB - 6 FA

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB ® - 9 5.09

Duckett, T.J. DET RB - 6 FA

Hall, Andre DEN RB - 6 FA

Harrison, Jerome CLE RB - 7 FA

Henry, Chris TEN RB ® - 4 2.02

Peterson, Adrian CHI RB - 9 FA

Turner, Michael SDC RB - 7 FA

Wright, Dwayne BUF RB ® - 6 3.14

Wright, Jason CLE RB - 7 FA

Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 8 FA

Burleson, Nate SEA WR - 8 FA

Hixon, Domenik DEN WR - 6 FA

Johnson, Calvin DET WR ® - 6 1.01

Moss, Santana WAS WR - 4 FA

Robinson, Koren GBP WR - 7 FA

Robinson, Ryne CAR WR ® - 7 FA

Stanley, Derek STL WR ® - 9 FA

Webb, Jeff KCC WR - 8 FA

Williams, Roy DET WR - 6 FA

Wilson, Travis CLE WR - 7 FA

sitting on 1.01r i took calvin johnson over adrian peterson....i am just in love with calvins game and am ever so slightly nervous about ap's knicked up past and upright running style.

i ended up trading up to grab henry at pick 18 just to help my odds at finding a usable starter, because currently, im in a world of hurt at that position.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Ok, this is a hypothetical because I don't have any of the top three picks in any of my rookie drafts, but just got to thinking about this one. Let's say you have pick #2. You need RB help, but you don't really care for Lynch that much and you are in LOVE with CJ. Do you take the player you feel is far and away a sure bet, or do you go with the player that you aren't sure about but feel you should because he is a RB??What are peoples' thoughts on this?

I always feel better taking a player I actually believe in than taking a player I doubt. My ranking of Calvin over Lynch has no qualifications based on scoring systems or lineups. The only way I would take Lynch over Calvin is if I knew the team sitting at #3 really coveted Lynch over Calvin - then you could probably chisel something extra out of them in a trade of Lynch for the #3. The point is, if you're sitting at #2, Calvin should end up on your team.

 

[Donnybrook]

Ok, this is a hypothetical because I don't have any of the top three picks in any of my rookie drafts, but just got to thinking about this one.

Let's say you have pick #2. You need RB help, but you don't really care for Lynch that much and you are in LOVE with CJ. Do you take the player you feel is far and away a sure bet, or do you go with the player that you aren't sure about but feel you should because he is a RB??

What are peoples' thoughts on this?

This is not a hypothetical situation for me. I had the #2 picked and needed a RB more than WR but still took CJ.

 

[EBF]

It all depends on league setup. In a RB-heavy league like Misfits or Zealots, RBs are literally worth twice as much as WRs. I think it would be a major mistake to take Johnson over Lynch in these leagues.

But in a PPR league with flexible starting requirements, Johnson is a viable option with the top pick.

 

[lions327]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

 

[EBF]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

Format is extremely important. In many leagues, a mediocre RB is worth more than an elite WR. For example, in my Misfits league the top RB (LT) scored twice as much as the top WR (Harrison). The top 12 RBs all averaged more PPG than Harrison. The top 30 RBs all averaged more PPG than Anquan Boldin. The PPG difference between RB1 and RB28 was almost 17 points.The PPG difference between WR1 and WR28 was only 4.5 points.You have to factor these things into your decisions.

 

[MelKiperJr]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

Format is extremely important. In many leagues, a mediocre RB is worth more than an elite WR. For example, in my Misfits league the top RB (LT) scored twice as much as the top WR (Harrison). The top 12 RBs all averaged more PPG than Harrison. The top 30 RBs all averaged more PPG than Anquan Boldin. The PPG difference between RB1 and RB28 was almost 17 points.The PPG difference between WR1 and WR28 was only 4.5 points.You have to factor these things into your decisions.

Exactly. It's all supply/demand.

 

[lions327]

I still would take Calvin. Comparing WR's to RB's is apples and oranges. The differences within the positions is what matters most. And I think Calvin is a sure fire future top 5 WR, while I just have too many concerns about Lynch.

 

[phthalatemagic]

I still would take Calvin. Comparing WR's to RB's is apples and oranges. The differences within the positions is what matters most. And I think Calvin is a sure fire future top 5 WR, while I just have too many concerns about Lynch.

What about a start 0 WR league?

 

[lions327]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

Format is extremely important. In many leagues, a mediocre RB is worth more than an elite WR. For example, in my Misfits league the top RB (LT) scored twice as much as the top WR (Harrison). The top 12 RBs all averaged more PPG than Harrison. The top 30 RBs all averaged more PPG than Anquan Boldin.

The PPG difference between RB1 and RB28 was almost 17 points.

The PPG difference between WR1 and WR28 was only 4.5 points.

You have to factor these things into your decisions.

What was the difference beginning with RB's NOT named LT? He had a career monster year with over 30 TD's. He has zero to do with the 28th ranked RB. The above is misleading because of the magnitude of LT's year.

 

[lions327]

I still would take Calvin. Comparing WR's to RB's is apples and oranges. The differences within the positions is what matters most. And I think Calvin is a sure fire future top 5 WR, while I just have too many concerns about Lynch.

What about a start 0 WR league?

 

[-OZ-]

Ok, this is a hypothetical because I don't have any of the top three picks in any of my rookie drafts, but just got to thinking about this one.

Let's say you have pick #2. You need RB help, but you don't really care for Lynch that much and you are in LOVE with CJ. Do you take the player you feel is far and away a sure bet, or do you go with the player that you aren't sure about but feel you should because he is a RB??

What are peoples' thoughts on this?

This is not a hypothetical situation for me. I had the #2 picked and needed a RB more than WR but still took CJ.

It's real for me and I'll probably take CJ. Partly because I'm a Lions fan, mostly because CJ should be a top 5 WR, Lynch an above average RB.

 

[EBF]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

Format is extremely important. In many leagues, a mediocre RB is worth more than an elite WR. For example, in my Misfits league the top RB (LT) scored twice as much as the top WR (Harrison). The top 12 RBs all averaged more PPG than Harrison. The top 30 RBs all averaged more PPG than Anquan Boldin.

The PPG difference between RB1 and RB28 was almost 17 points.

The PPG difference between WR1 and WR28 was only 4.5 points.

You have to factor these things into your decisions.

What was the difference beginning with RB's NOT named LT? He had a career monster year with over 30 TD's. He has zero to do with the 28th ranked RB. The above is misleading because of the magnitude of LT's year.

You only have to start 1 WR and 1 RB in these leagues. The other three starting skill spots are flex. As for your question, Larry Johnson (RB2) scored 7.5 more points per game than Marvin Harrison (WR1). The difference in PPG between Larry Johnson and the WR1 (Harrison) is greater than the difference in PPG between the WR1 and the WR46 (DJ Hackett).

Taking a great WR prospect over a good RB prospect is a huge mathematical mistake in these leagues. In fact, you could make a pretty decent case that Calvin shouldn't be a top 5-6 pick.

 

[-OZ-]

You only have to start 1 WR and 1 RB in these leagues. The other three starting skill spots are flex. As for your question, Larry Johnson (RB2) scored 7.5 more points per game than Marvin Harrison (WR1). The difference in PPG between Larry Johnson and the WR1 (Harrison) is greater than the difference in PPG between the WR1 and the WR46 (DJ Hackett). Taking a great WR prospect over a good RB prospect is a huge mathematical mistake in these leagues. In fact, you could make a pretty decent case that Calvin shouldn't be a top 5-6 pick.

In that format, you might be right. However, I'd need to see the difference between the #13 RB and #13 WR. From what I've seen, the elite RBs outperform everyone, but after you get into the RB2 vs. WR2 range, WRs tend to win out. Maybe not in your league. So, sure, if Lynch becomes a top 5 RB, he'll be worth more than CJ, even if CJ is the next Randy Moss. But, what if (as is more likely IMO) Lynch becomes a #13-20 RB? Where would CJ have to rank for him to be "more valuable" or score more points?

 

[EBF]

You only have to start 1 WR and 1 RB in these leagues. The other three starting skill spots are flex. As for your question, Larry Johnson (RB2) scored 7.5 more points per game than Marvin Harrison (WR1). The difference in PPG between Larry Johnson and the WR1 (Harrison) is greater than the difference in PPG between the WR1 and the WR46 (DJ Hackett). Taking a great WR prospect over a good RB prospect is a huge mathematical mistake in these leagues. In fact, you could make a pretty decent case that Calvin shouldn't be a top 5-6 pick.

In that format, you might be right. However, I'd need to see the difference between the #13 RB and #13 WR. From what I've seen, the elite RBs outperform everyone, but after you get into the RB2 vs. WR2 range, WRs tend to win out. Maybe not in your league. So, sure, if Lynch becomes a top 5 RB, he'll be worth more than CJ, even if CJ is the next Randy Moss. But, what if (as is more likely IMO) Lynch becomes a #13-20 RB? Where would CJ have to rank for him to be "more valuable" or score more points?

RB13 - Ahman Green - 12.85 PPGWR13 - Roy Williams - 10.8 PPGNot as big of a difference, but it's still very significant. The CJ love is a little blind. I think he's the best prospect in the draft, but that doesn't make him the best FF pick. Larry Fitz only averaged 10 PPG in this league last year. Marion Barber, Warrick Dunn, and Corey Dillon averaged more than that.

 

[Donnybrook]

There is no format I can think of that would make me take Lynch over Calvin.

Format is extremely important. In many leagues, a mediocre RB is worth more than an elite WR. For example, in my Misfits league the top RB (LT) scored twice as much as the top WR (Harrison). The top 12 RBs all averaged more PPG than Harrison. The top 30 RBs all averaged more PPG than Anquan Boldin. The PPG difference between RB1 and RB28 was almost 17 points.The PPG difference between WR1 and WR28 was only 4.5 points.You have to factor these things into your decisions.

The key factor for me was longevity. RB scoring other than LT seems so volitile from year to year. I like the consistency you get from players like Harrison and Holt over the short term gains you get from RBs. Maybe I am looking too far down the road.

 

[lions327]

Even after reading all of the above, I would still take Calvin. I am just not convinced Lynch will amount to a top RB. If I liked him more I may think different.

 

[Couch Potato]

Ok, this is a hypothetical because I don't have any of the top three picks in any of my rookie drafts, but just got to thinking about this one. Let's say you have pick #2. You need RB help, but you don't really care for Lynch that much and you are in LOVE with CJ. Do you take the player you feel is far and away a sure bet, or do you go with the player that you aren't sure about but feel you should because he is a RB??What are peoples' thoughts on this?

There's also the trade alternative to consider. Needing a RB and not liking Lynch doesn't necessarily mean having to own him anyway. Assuming Lynch is in the 20-25 range in dynasty RB rankings, you could draft and deal Lynch for an established RB in that range. Or, if you think others in your league will value CJ more highly, you could draft and deal CJ (or just deal the pick) for an established RB that hopefully would be higher than that range. Determine as best you can where the greater trade value lies (Lynch or CJ) based on your league scoring, lineup requirements, and owner personalities, and maximize value rather than settling for need. You can always trade for need and have value left over.