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Generic 2013 Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

ZWK

Footballguy
Using historical data, here are some generic dynasty rookie rankings for this year's draft class, based only on position and draft pick (last year's version here). That means that Tavon Austin is evaluated only as "WR who was taken with the 8th overall pick" and EJ Manuel is just "QB taken #16 overall."

Standard Scoring:

8 WR Tavon Austin St. Louis Rams

27 WR DeAndre Hopkins Houston Texans
21 TE Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals
29 WR Cordarrelle Patterson Minnesota Vikings
37 RB Giovani Bernard Cincinnati Bengals
16 QB E. J. Manuel Buffalo Bills
34 WR Justin Hunter Tennessee Titans

48 RB Le'Veon Bell Pittsburgh Steelers
58 RB Montee Ball Denver Broncos
61 RB Eddie Lacy Green Bay Packers
62 RB Christine Michael Seattle Seahawks
41 WR Robert Woods Buffalo Bills
35 TE Zach Ertz Philadelphia Eagles

59 WR Aaron Dobson New England Patriots
74 WR Terrance Williams Dallas Cowboys
76 WR Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers
78 WR Marquise Goodwin Buffalo Bills
79 WR Markus Wheaton Pittsburgh Steelers
39 QB Geno Smith New York Jets
96 RB Knile Davis Kansas City Chiefs
47 TE Gavin Escobar Dallas Cowboys
92 WR Stedman Bailey St. Louis Rams

55 TE Vance McDonald San Francisco 49ers
63 TE Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs
101 WR Ace Sanders Jacksonville Jaguars
102 WR Josh Boyce New England Patriots
85 TE Jordan Reed Washington Redskins

106 TE Dion Sims Miami Dolphins
125 RB Johnathan Franklin Green Bay Packers
123 WR Chris Harper Seattle Seahawks
131 RB Marcus Lattimore San Francisco 49ers
128 WR Quinton Patton San Francisco 49ers
135 WR Denard Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars
140 RB Stepfan Taylor Arizona Cardinals
73 QB Mike Glennon Tampa Bay Buccaneers
98 QB Matt Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
110 QB Ryan Nassib New York Giants
112 QB Tyler Wilson Oakland Raiders
115 QB Landry Jones Pittsburgh Steelers

Rankings are based on historical data for career VBD, in a league with no PPR starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. Basically, for each position I looked at the career VBD of every player drafted 1993-2003 and plotted a best-fit curve based on draft pick. That means that within position, players just go by draft order, but the data give a sense of the relative values of the positions and where the big dropoffs are.

Because TE has become much more of a receiving position, at TE I'm using the average of the historical numbers for TEs and WRs (Eifert would be between Manuel & Hunter with the historical TE data, or ahead of Hopkins if you treat him as a WR).

PPR:

8 WR Tavon Austin St. Louis Rams

27 WR DeAndre Hopkins Houston Texans
21 TE Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals
29 WR Cordarrelle Patterson Minnesota Vikings

34 WR Justin Hunter Tennessee Titans
37 RB Giovani Bernard Cincinnati Bengals

41 WR Robert Woods Buffalo Bills
35 TE Zach Ertz Philadelphia Eagles
16 QB E. J. Manuel Buffalo Bills
48 RB Le'Veon Bell Pittsburgh Steelers
58 RB Montee Ball Denver Broncos
61 RB Eddie Lacy Green Bay Packers
62 RB Christine Michael Seattle Seahawks
59 WR Aaron Dobson New England Patriots

74 WR Terrance Williams Dallas Cowboys
76 WR Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers
78 WR Marquise Goodwin Buffalo Bills
79 WR Markus Wheaton Pittsburgh Steelers

47 TE Gavin Escobar Dallas Cowboys
92 WR Stedman Bailey St. Louis Rams
96 RB Knile Davis Kansas City Chiefs
55 TE Vance McDonald San Francisco 49ers
63 TE Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs
101 WR Ace Sanders Jacksonville Jaguars
102 WR Josh Boyce New England Patriots
39 QB Geno Smith New York Jets
85 TE Jordan Reed Washington Redskins

106 TE Dion Sims Miami Dolphins
123 WR Chris Harper Seattle Seahawks
128 WR Quinton Patton San Francisco 49ers
125 RB Johnathan Franklin Green Bay Packers
135 WR Denard Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars
131 RB Marcus Lattimore San Francisco 49ers
140 RB Stepfan Taylor Arizona Cardinals
133 TE Levine Toilolo Atlanta Falcons
144 WR Kenny Stills New Orleans Saints
73 QB Mike Glennon Tampa Bay Buccaneers
98 QB Matt Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
110 QB Ryan Nassib New York Giants
112 QB Tyler Wilson Oakland Raiders
115 QB Landry Jones Pittsburgh Steelers

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Awesome stuff, as usual. Any chance I could convince you to add the projected career VBD values to the list, too? For example, next to Austin put the projected career VBD of a WR taken with the 8th overall pick? As you mentioned last year, a straight career VBD comparison overrates players with longer careers (300 VBD in 2 years is more valuable than 310 VBD over 12 years), and access to the raw projected totals would let me apply custom weights by position to bring the positions back in line a little bit. It would also be useful when ranking these rookies against their veteran counterparts.

Either way, thanks again. Keep up the quality work.

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Last number is the expected career VBD.

Standard Scoring

8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR 15727 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR 10321 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert TE 10329 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR 9837 Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard RB 9416 Buffalo Bills E. J. Manuel QB 9034 Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter WR 8448 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell RB 7558 Denver Broncos Montee Ball RB 7261 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy RB 7162 Seattle Seahawks Christine Michael RB 7041 Buffalo Bills Robert Woods WR 6935 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz TE 6359 New England Patriots Aaron Dobson WR 5774 Dallas Cowboys Terrance Williams WR 5176 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen WR 5078 Buffalo Bills Marquise Goodwin WR 4979 Pittsburgh Steelers Markus Wheaton WR 4939 New York Jets Geno Smith QB 4796 Kansas City Chiefs Knile Davis RB 4747 Dallas Cowboys Gavin Escobar TE 4392 St. Louis Rams Stedman Bailey WR 4255 San Francisco 49ers Vance McDonald TE 3863 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce TE 35101 Jacksonville Jaguars Ace Sanders WR 34102 New England Patriots Josh Boyce WR 3385 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed TE 29106 Miami Dolphins Dion Sims TE 19125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18123 Seattle Seahawks Chris Harper WR 18131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16128 San Francisco 49ers Quinton Patton WR 16135 Jacksonville Jaguars Denard Robinson WR 13140 Arizona Cardinals Stepfan Taylor RB 1273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon QB 1198 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley QB 11110 New York Giants Ryan Nassib QB 11112 Oakland Raiders Tyler Wilson QB 11115 Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones QB 11133 Atlanta Falcons Levine Toilolo TE 9144 New Orleans Saints Kenny Stills WR 9151 Dallas Cowboys Joseph Randle RB 8154 Washington Redskins Chris Thompson RB 8160 St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy RB 8164 Miami Dolphins Mike Gillislee RB 8181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray RB 8182 Carolina Panthers Kenjon Barner RB 8187 Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington RB 8189 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike James RB 8190 Cincinnati Bengals Rex Burkhead RB 8194 Seattle Seahawks Spencer Ware RB 8199 Baltimore Ravens Theo Riddick RB 8

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Last number is the expected career VBD.

Standard Scoring

8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR 15727 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR 10321 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert TE 10329 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR 9837 Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard RB 9416 Buffalo Bills E. J. Manuel QB 9034 Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter WR 8448 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell RB 7558 Denver Broncos Montee Ball RB 7261 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy RB 7162 Seattle Seahawks Christine Michael RB 7041 Buffalo Bills Robert Woods WR 6935 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz TE 6359 New England Patriots Aaron Dobson WR 5774 Dallas Cowboys Terrance Williams WR 5176 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen WR 5078 Buffalo Bills Marquise Goodwin WR 4979 Pittsburgh Steelers Markus Wheaton WR 4939 New York Jets Geno Smith QB 4796 Kansas City Chiefs Knile Davis RB 4747 Dallas Cowboys Gavin Escobar TE 4392 St. Louis Rams Stedman Bailey WR 4255 San Francisco 49ers Vance McDonald TE 3863 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce TE 35101 Jacksonville Jaguars Ace Sanders WR 34102 New England Patriots Josh Boyce WR 3385 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed TE 29106 Miami Dolphins Dion Sims TE 19125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18123 Seattle Seahawks Chris Harper WR 18131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16128 San Francisco 49ers Quinton Patton WR 16135 Jacksonville Jaguars Denard Robinson WR 13140 Arizona Cardinals Stepfan Taylor RB 1273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon QB 1198 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley QB 11110 New York Giants Ryan Nassib QB 11112 Oakland Raiders Tyler Wilson QB 11115 Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones QB 11133 Atlanta Falcons Levine Toilolo TE 9144 New Orleans Saints Kenny Stills WR 9151 Dallas Cowboys Joseph Randle RB 8154 Washington Redskins Chris Thompson RB 8160 St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy RB 8164 Miami Dolphins Mike Gillislee RB 8181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray RB 8182 Carolina Panthers Kenjon Barner RB 8187 Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington RB 8189 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike James RB 8190 Cincinnati Bengals Rex Burkhead RB 8194 Seattle Seahawks Spencer Ware RB 8199 Baltimore Ravens Theo Riddick RB 8
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Interesting stuff as usual!

I have been coming around more to this being a weaker class than perhaps usual because of this draft class being the 3rd in a row to have such high numbers of juniors declare. This has depleted the depth of experienced talent in the college ranks to some degree resulting in a weaker draft class this season, although I do think the talent at safety and corner was better than usual this season, as well as at DT.

What I would like to do is look at the average number of players taken by position over the last 10 draft classes, then adjust the draft position in 2013 based off of those averages.

It is of historic significance that this is the 1st draft since 63 to not have a RB taken in the 1st round, the WR were mostly passed over also because there was so much depth available teams chose more position scarce players in the 1st round. I kind of think there may be an upward bump something like 3 spots for the skill players in a less talent rich draft at these other positions.

I worry somewhat that the 2014 class may be even weaker than this one if there is a drop in juniors declaring.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Interesting stuff as usual!

I have been coming around more to this being a weaker class than perhaps usual because of this draft class being the 3rd in a row to have such high numbers of juniors declare. This has depleted the depth of experienced talent in the college ranks to some degree resulting in a weaker draft class this season, although I do think the talent at safety and corner was better than usual this season, as well as at DT.

What I would like to do is look at the average number of players taken by position over the last 10 draft classes, then adjust the draft position in 2013 based off of those averages.

It is of historic significance that this is the 1st draft since 63 to not have a RB taken in the 1st round, the WR were mostly passed over also because there was so much depth available teams chose more position scarce players in the 1st round. I kind of think there may be an upward bump something like 3 spots for the skill players in a less talent rich draft at these other positions.

I worry somewhat that the 2014 class may be even weaker than this one if there is a drop in juniors declaring.
This wasn't really a weak draft class, though. It was a brutal draft for the skill positions, and the very top of the draft couldn't compete with last year or next year's. It was a strong class along the lines and on defense, though. This was a great year to have picks if you needed offensive or defensive linemen. There was also pretty solid receiver depth, just no sure-fire studs (except for possibly Austin, who isn't exactly a prototypical receiver).

Looking at it logically, a lot of juniors declaring will weaken next year's class, and a lot of redshirt sophomores declaring will weaken the next two years. At the same time, all those players declaring should strengthen the current draft class. If a bunch of players declaring early was going to weaken a draft, you'd think it would have affected last year's class, too... but last year's class was phenomenal, from a fantasy standpoint. That's why I think it's hard to say that early declarers are weakening the drafts. I think it's more likely that it's just a cyclical trend, and a few years from now we're going to start seeing some ludicrous RB classes again. I hope so, at least, because the talent pool at RB in the NFL is getting awfully thin...

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
I've been trying to figure out this draft from a fantasy perspective so thanks for the post, good job.

No fantasy studs like last year so we have to dig-down a little bit to find fantasy value.

These are the guys who, right-now, have started to interest me.

Last number is the expected career VBD.
Standard Scoring

8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR 157

- Tavon will not only be used in the slot, they will utilize him many ways. Add I'm not high on any of the other Ram wideouts and they made an aggressive move-up for him so they have a plan to use him. The big issue with Austin is that he will never be a 'true' #1 WR but the bottom line is he's going to get more touches than a normal rookie WR.

27 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR 103

- Path is clear for this rookie to start opposite of Andre Johnson and his long-term future looks bright to eventually become the Texans #1 WR.

21 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert TE 103

- Ugh. I love Eifert but not the situation where TE Gresham is already in place. They will split him wide like a WR and he will be used but he could have landed in a far better situation than one where Jermaine Gresham was already a solid starting fantasy TE. This move hurts both Gresham and Eifert.

29 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR 98

- Could make an early splash but he could also have trouble seeing much action early on. The big question is his long-term potential of being a legit #1 WR or...?

37 Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard RB 94

- Just speaking of the situation. BJGE was a thousand yard RB last year but drafting Giovani is clear writing on the wall that this kid has shot to become the Bengals leading RB.

16 Buffalo Bills E. J. Manuel QB 90

- He'll get his shot early. Who knows what he's capable of? I don't but he will get a shot and a chance to start has fantasy value.

34 Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter WR 84

- Not sure of the situation but they seem to want to replace Britt.

48 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell RB 75

- Path is clear for this kid to become the lead back.

58 Denver Broncos Montee Ball RB 72

- John Fox has a history of not starting rookies but I don't see much standing in the way of this kid to take over the starting job.

61 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy RB 71

- FINALLY! The Pack finally addressed the RB issue in a big-way but adding Franklin later muddies the water as to finding one lead back.

62 Seattle Seahawks Christine Michael RB 70

- Talent but litte opportunity for awhile.

41 Buffalo Bills Robert Woods WR 69

- The #2 WR is wide open so Woods could be a good fantasy player early-on.

35 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz TE 63

- Chip Kelly is the reason this kid could make an early impact.

59 New England Patriots Aaron Dobson WR 57

- Never know who might emerge in New England.

74 Dallas Cowboys Terrance Williams WR 51

- See above.

76 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen WR 50
- Some competition but Allen has a shot to make noise.

79 Pittsburgh Steelers Markus Wheaton WR 49

- I've soured on Emmanuel Sanders so I think this kid has a shot at becoming a starter by the end of this season.

39 New York Jets Geno Smith QB 47
- No competition IMHO so he'll get a shot to be the starter.

63 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce TE 35
- Love this kid but it will take time. Talent but situation isn't the best right now.

125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18
- Its possible that either Lacey or Franklin separate due to talent or circumstance and its too early to call.

131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16
- Long term potential, long-term hold. Niners took an injured RB in the third round a few years ago and it turned out pretty well for them.

73 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon QB 11

- Probably not for a year or two but interesting talent.

98 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley QB 11

- Chip Kelly is the reason this pick is interesting. Chip hasn't had a QB with this sort of talent, ofcourse the same can be said of both Vick and Foles too but Mike is on a one-year contract and is at the end of his career. I think Foles is limited. Barkley may not be highly talented but his overall game is ok. Barkley has potential to be a decent backup but has upside obviously down the line.

 

cstu

Footballguy
125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18

- Its possible that either Lacey or Franklin separate due to talent or circumstance and its too early to call.

131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16

- Long term potential, long-term hold. Niners took an injured RB in the third round a few years ago and it turned out pretty well for them.
Franklin went just 6 spots higher than Lattimore despite not having a shredded knee.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
good way to approach rokie value. especially good for those who don't watch or evaluate college players.

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16

- Long term potential, long-term hold. Niners took an injured RB in the third round a few years ago and it turned out pretty well for them.
Franklin went just 6 spots higher than Lattimore despite not having a shredded knee.
The pick of Lattimore is unique for obvious reasons but here is one more angle to the pick in terms of the 49ers.

They had soo-many picks this year that we know that later picks wouldn't have a shot to make the team so they had to do something to maximize those picks and not blow them by taking soo many rookies that they would not get reps and would get lost in the shuffle where they'd emerge on other rosters.

So taking an injured but talented RB who they could, and probably will, stash on IR for a year means they effectively traded this pick for a talented RB next year.

It makes much-more sense for a Super Bowl team with a loaded roster to take a shot at Lattimore with the intention to stash hm for a year and thus not blow one of the suplus of draft picks that they held.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Interesting stuff as usual!

I have been coming around more to this being a weaker class than perhaps usual because of this draft class being the 3rd in a row to have such high numbers of juniors declare. This has depleted the depth of experienced talent in the college ranks to some degree resulting in a weaker draft class this season, although I do think the talent at safety and corner was better than usual this season, as well as at DT.

What I would like to do is look at the average number of players taken by position over the last 10 draft classes, then adjust the draft position in 2013 based off of those averages.

It is of historic significance that this is the 1st draft since 63 to not have a RB taken in the 1st round, the WR were mostly passed over also because there was so much depth available teams chose more position scarce players in the 1st round. I kind of think there may be an upward bump something like 3 spots for the skill players in a less talent rich draft at these other positions.

I worry somewhat that the 2014 class may be even weaker than this one if there is a drop in juniors declaring.
This wasn't really a weak draft class, though. It was a brutal draft for the skill positions, and the very top of the draft couldn't compete with last year or next year's. It was a strong class along the lines and on defense, though. This was a great year to have picks if you needed offensive or defensive linemen. There was also pretty solid receiver depth, just no sure-fire studs (except for possibly Austin, who isn't exactly a prototypical receiver).

Looking at it logically, a lot of juniors declaring will weaken next year's class, and a lot of redshirt sophomores declaring will weaken the next two years. At the same time, all those players declaring should strengthen the current draft class. If a bunch of players declaring early was going to weaken a draft, you'd think it would have affected last year's class, too... but last year's class was phenomenal, from a fantasy standpoint. That's why I think it's hard to say that early declarers are weakening the drafts. I think it's more likely that it's just a cyclical trend, and a few years from now we're going to start seeing some ludicrous RB classes again. I hope so, at least, because the talent pool at RB in the NFL is getting awfully thin...
Yes I know that this draft class was weak at the top in terms of skill position players, while also being stronger than normal at defensive back and along both lines.

That is why I suggested looking at the last 10 drafts and perhaps adjusting for there being more early picks at other positions than an average draft class. After looking at those results adjust the skill players according to that and compare them again.

I think the fact that no RB was drafted in the 1st round is in line with the talent offered at the position in this draft class. The WR however I think are a slightly different story. The Rams and the Vikings were willing to trade up for the WR who also offered kick return ability, otherwise teams were content to let WR fall into the 2nd and 3rd round because of the quality and quantity of the talent available.

So my guess is the draft position at WR perhaps should be considered to be adjusted a few spots higher than their actual draft position to compensate for that, but to leave the RB and QB alone. They earned their draft position. I just think that teams liked enough WR for thier purposes to let them drop further than they might if there were fewer of them to choose from. So that may be worth adjusting them up a few spots. I kind of was thinking this pre Nfl draft also but I would not apply it to the QB or RB now.

Bottom line is I think the WR talent is slightly better than their draft position might indicate.

I also see people overlooking that Stedmon is going to get a lot of Amendola targets too.

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!
I can make that into numbers. In this class, the top 200 picks combined have 2043 expected career VBD. Last year, it was 3005 expected career VBD. Continuing:

2013 20432012 30052011 27002010 25572009 28892008 31632007 3052

Ooof.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
ZWK said:
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!
I can make that into numbers. In this class, the top 200 picks combined have 2043 expected career VBD. Last year, it was 3005 expected career VBD. Continuing:

2013 20432012 30052011 27002010 25572009 28892008 31632007 3052

Ooof.
No amount of turd polishing is going to change this.

Could 2014 be even worse? :confused:

 

cstu

Footballguy
ZWK said:
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!
I can make that into numbers. In this class, the top 200 picks combined have 2043 expected career VBD. Last year, it was 3005 expected career VBD. Continuing:

2013 20432012 30052011 27002010 25572009 28892008 31632007 3052

Ooof.
No amount of turd polishing is going to change this.

Could 2014 be even worse? :confused:
Unpossible.

This is the first draft where it was difficult for me to find someone to draft starting in the 3rd.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
cstu said:
Biabreakable said:
ZWK said:
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!
I can make that into numbers. In this class, the top 200 picks combined have 2043 expected career VBD. Last year, it was 3005 expected career VBD. Continuing:

2013 20432012 30052011 27002010 25572009 28892008 31632007 3052

Ooof.
No amount of turd polishing is going to change this.

Could 2014 be even worse? :confused:
Unpossible.

This is the first draft where it was difficult for me to find someone to draft starting in the 3rd.
Yeah. Those second round WRs really save this class from complete and total reality-warping levels of suckitude (actually, it creates a nice oasis toward the end of the rookie 1st / beginning of the rookie 2nd where the talent is about what you'd expect in a normal draft), but holy woof this is a bad class. And ZWK's generic projections don't even take into account the number of players who landed in bad situations (such as Lacy/Franklin, or Eifert landing with Gresham), or the fact that the class's one premier player is a 5'8" WR.

I think it's going to be a long, long time before we see a fantasy class this bad again. It's really nice to see some objective data telling confirming our subjective impressions. Anyone who traded 2013 firsts for 2014 firsts looks to have made off like a bandit.

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
I think it's going to be a long, long time before we see a fantasy class this bad again. It's really nice to see some objective data telling confirming our subjective impressions. Anyone who traded 2013 firsts for 2014 firsts looks to have made off like a bandit.
Why? Is 2014 expected to be that good - or is 2013 just that horrid?

 

cstu

Footballguy
I think it's going to be a long, long time before we see a fantasy class this bad again. It's really nice to see some objective data telling confirming our subjective impressions. Anyone who traded 2013 firsts for 2014 firsts looks to have made off like a bandit.
Why? Is 2014 expected to be that good - or is 2013 just that horrid?
It was that horrid. Next year there is already a QB (Bridgewater), 2 WR's (Lee and Watkins), a RB (Seastrunk) and a TE (ASJ) better than what what we had this year. It's too early to really comment on the depth but I have a hard time seeing it be worse.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
2008 3163 100%2007 3052 96%2012 3005 95%2009 2889 91%2011 2700 85%2010 2557 81%2013 2043 65%Each year, indexed to 2008's total.
2013 is horrible.

 

GridironMenace

Footballguy
Last number is the expected career VBD.

Standard Scoring

8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR 15727 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR 10321 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert TE 10329 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR 9837 Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard RB 9416 Buffalo Bills E. J. Manuel QB 9034 Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter WR 8448 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell RB 7558 Denver Broncos Montee Ball RB 7261 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy RB 7162 Seattle Seahawks Christine Michael RB 7041 Buffalo Bills Robert Woods WR 6935 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz TE 6359 New England Patriots Aaron Dobson WR 5774 Dallas Cowboys Terrance Williams WR 5176 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen WR 5078 Buffalo Bills Marquise Goodwin WR 4979 Pittsburgh Steelers Markus Wheaton WR 4939 New York Jets Geno Smith QB 4796 Kansas City Chiefs Knile Davis RB 4747 Dallas Cowboys Gavin Escobar TE 4392 St. Louis Rams Stedman Bailey WR 4255 San Francisco 49ers Vance McDonald TE 3863 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce TE 35101 Jacksonville Jaguars Ace Sanders WR 34102 New England Patriots Josh Boyce WR 3385 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed TE 29106 Miami Dolphins Dion Sims TE 19125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18123 Seattle Seahawks Chris Harper WR 18131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16128 San Francisco 49ers Quinton Patton WR 16135 Jacksonville Jaguars Denard Robinson WR 13140 Arizona Cardinals Stepfan Taylor RB 1273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon QB 1198 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley QB 11110 New York Giants Ryan Nassib QB 11112 Oakland Raiders Tyler Wilson QB 11115 Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones QB 11133 Atlanta Falcons Levine Toilolo TE 9144 New Orleans Saints Kenny Stills WR 9151 Dallas Cowboys Joseph Randle RB 8154 Washington Redskins Chris Thompson RB 8160 St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy RB 8164 Miami Dolphins Mike Gillislee RB 8181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray RB 8182 Carolina Panthers Kenjon Barner RB 8187 Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington RB 8189 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike James RB 8190 Cincinnati Bengals Rex Burkhead RB 8194 Seattle Seahawks Spencer Ware RB 8199 Baltimore Ravens Theo Riddick RB 8
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class.

Thanks, ZWK!
This year was an anomoly because of all of the OLine and DLine elite studs that were taken in the first round. Add the fact that WR's and HB's were a pretty darn deep class, the rule of supply and demand forced those skill position guys to fall. While I appreciate the work put into this, it is pretty pointless.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Respectfully disagree. Virtually everyone that pays attention has been saying this was a weak class for skill position players for months now (including many NFL execs). This just quantifies it.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I think it's going to be a long, long time before we see a fantasy class this bad again. It's really nice to see some objective data telling confirming our subjective impressions. Anyone who traded 2013 firsts for 2014 firsts looks to have made off like a bandit.
Why? Is 2014 expected to be that good - or is 2013 just that horrid?
It was that horrid. Next year there is already a QB (Bridgewater), 2 WR's (Lee and Watkins), a RB (Seastrunk) and a TE (ASJ) better than what what we had this year. It's too early to really comment on the depth but I have a hard time seeing it be worse.
Don't forget Boyd at QB, plus whatever other players emerge during the season. Usually you get a couple of guys who come from way off the radar and become 1st round picks (like Griffin or Doug Martin). This year didn't have any other than Austin, which is a huge aberration, and a big reason why this year's class is even worse than expected.
Last number is the expected career VBD. Standard Scoring 8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR 15727 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR 10321 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert TE 10329 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR 9837 Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard RB 9416 Buffalo Bills E. J. Manuel QB 9034 Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter WR 8448 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell RB 7558 Denver Broncos Montee Ball RB 7261 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy RB 7162 Seattle Seahawks Christine Michael RB 7041 Buffalo Bills Robert Woods WR 6935 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz TE 6359 New England Patriots Aaron Dobson WR 5774 Dallas Cowboys Terrance Williams WR 5176 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen WR 5078 Buffalo Bills Marquise Goodwin WR 4979 Pittsburgh Steelers Markus Wheaton WR 4939 New York Jets Geno Smith QB 4796 Kansas City Chiefs Knile Davis RB 4747 Dallas Cowboys Gavin Escobar TE 4392 St. Louis Rams Stedman Bailey WR 4255 San Francisco 49ers Vance McDonald TE 3863 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce TE 35101 Jacksonville Jaguars Ace Sanders WR 34102 New England Patriots Josh Boyce WR 3385 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed TE 29106 Miami Dolphins Dion Sims TE 19125 Green Bay Packers Johnathan Franklin RB 18123 Seattle Seahawks Chris Harper WR 18131 San Francisco 49ers Marcus Lattimore RB 16128 San Francisco 49ers Quinton Patton WR 16135 Jacksonville Jaguars Denard Robinson WR 13140 Arizona Cardinals Stepfan Taylor RB 1273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Glennon QB 1198 Philadelphia Eagles Matt Barkley QB 11110 New York Giants Ryan Nassib QB 11112 Oakland Raiders Tyler Wilson QB 11115 Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones QB 11133 Atlanta Falcons Levine Toilolo TE 9144 New Orleans Saints Kenny Stills WR 9151 Dallas Cowboys Joseph Randle RB 8154 Washington Redskins Chris Thompson RB 8160 St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy RB 8164 Miami Dolphins Mike Gillislee RB 8181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray RB 8182 Carolina Panthers Kenjon Barner RB 8187 Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington RB 8189 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike James RB 8190 Cincinnati Bengals Rex Burkhead RB 8194 Seattle Seahawks Spencer Ware RB 8199 Baltimore Ravens Theo Riddick RB 8
Woof. This really is a weak fantasy draft class. Thanks, ZWK!
This year was an anomoly because of all of the OLine and DLine elite studs that were taken in the first round. Add the fact that WR's and HB's were a pretty darn deep class, the rule of supply and demand forced those skill position guys to fall. While I appreciate the work put into this, it is pretty pointless.
You know, it was a pretty strong draft down through the first, but it was still pretty weak at the top (evidenced by how cheaply teams were trading down). 2011 and 2012 were much stronger at the top, and both drafts still saw plenty of skill players work their way into the mix. The top guys this year were closer to what you would typically find in the middle of the first. The guys at the bottom of the first were closer to what you'd typically find in the middle of the first, too, but as this draft demonstrated, a large dose of solid prospects can't make up for a complete absence of studs. Tavon Austin has a similar profile to Justin Blackmon last year. If anything, Blackmon might have been a stronger prospect. This year, Austin is the clear #1. Last year, Blackmon was often the 5th or 6th player off the board. If Austin's not the #1 this year, then it's Gio, and prospects with a similar profile to Bernard (not just draft position, but entire profile) are typically going in the latter half of the first in rookie drafts. If you traded the #6 last year for the #1 this year, you lost value.
Respectfully disagree. Virtually everyone that pays attention has been saying this was a weak class for skill position players for months now (including many NFL execs). This just quantifies it.
I've been hearing for a year and a half that 2013 was going to be weak. There was some hope for an off-the-radar player to break out, but when none did, it cemented this class's fate.
 

EBF

Footballguy
Here's part of the problem:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2010

Lattimore, Dyer, and Seastrunk are arguably the three best draft-eligible RB prospects from their class. All three could conceivably have been first round picks this year, but they all hit speed bumps that either killed their stock or kept them out of the draft. Lattimore is still in the mix, but he's damaged goods at this point. Dyer and Seastrunk will most likely be in play next year.

On that note, it's pretty impressive that these recruiting sites are able to do a decent job of identifying talent when these kids are 17-18. Check out the list of the top 2009 RBs. There are some familiar names on there:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2009

 

Ramblin Wreck

Footballguy
On that note, it's pretty impressive that these recruiting sites are able to do a decent job of identifying talent when these kids are 17-18. Check out the list of the top 2009 RBs. There are some familiar names on there:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2009
Those sites gives stars based on who offers them. So when Mack Brown, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and gang offer kids they become 4 and 5 star players. Those sites aren't scouting thousands of kids and ranking them in order.

 

EBF

Footballguy
On that note, it's pretty impressive that these recruiting sites are able to do a decent job of identifying talent when these kids are 17-18. Check out the list of the top 2009 RBs. There are some familiar names on there:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2009
Those sites gives stars based on who offers them. So when Mack Brown, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and gang offer kids they become 4 and 5 star players. Those sites aren't scouting thousands of kids and ranking them in order.
Yea, I know. The system is still pretty good at picking the right players.

 

Xue

Footballguy
On that note, it's pretty impressive that these recruiting sites are able to do a decent job of identifying talent when these kids are 17-18. Check out the list of the top 2009 RBs. There are some familiar names on there:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2009
Those sites gives stars based on who offers them. So when Mack Brown, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and gang offer kids they become 4 and 5 star players. Those sites aren't scouting thousands of kids and ranking them in order.
Yea, I know. The system is still pretty good at picking the right players.
2011 not looking too good for top 5:

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=4&pid=11&yr=2011

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-rivalsrb/2011

 

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