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Ghost Cities of China (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
People are buying up property there and building homes/condos/apartments like crazy.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
Fensalk
Footballguy
This is an argument for why China will never overtake the US as a superpower. A powerful government bureaucracy is far too inefficient at allocating resources. A housing bubble bust will hurt them far more than it ever hurt the US. Sure, they may hold an advantage at the moment, but they are unlikely to adapt well to future changes. A free market's strength is in how it does the best job of allocating resources and thus is relatively resilient in the face of change.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Getting a strong North Korean vibe here.
But doesn't their restrictive government allow them to keep the bubble from bursting? All they have to do is keep people from moving to those areas. A house in a city in the middle of a desert that no one can occupy has no effect on the price of a home in another city.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
First thing I thought of was the dark cities on the peninsula.So, thirty years from now:
[*]China
[*]India
[*]Brazil
[*]USA
Still a top 5 in a field of 200. I can live with in that.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Though North Korea is a bit more extreme. They created "cities" with the intention of no one ever living there; such as the city Kijŏng-dong which contains large buildings/apartments that have electricity but don't have interior rooms or windows.
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Fensalk
Footballguy
They are pouring billions of dollars into these things. Without constant maintenance, they will be unusable in a little more than a decade and will have to be condemned. Its a misallocation of resources that could be used to help China weather whatever crisis it may face in the future. Its also a huge red flag that they are probably wasting an enormous amount of money in other foolish ventures as well. Like an uneducated blue collar worker who hit the lottery, they spend their fortune in dumb ways and eventually will wind up broke again.
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I'm not arguing that it's not a misallocation of assets. I'm questioning the premise that these particular cities will cause a housing bubble burst.
Fensalk
Footballguy
Well they probably built these things with a plan in mind to recover the costs by having people move in to them and pay rent and taxes. Not having anyone move into them prevents a bubble bust I guess, but it has the same effect as a housing bubble bust because empty cities are a pure drain on capital with no benefit.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The craziest one may be the university city that they built with the anticipation of 1.3 million students attending!
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Why?Time Kibitzer said:Mr. Pickles said:Though North Korea is a bit more extreme. They created "cities" with the intention of no one ever living there; such as the city Kijŏng-dong which contains large buildings/apartments that have electricity but don't have interior rooms or windows.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Because it is the darkest spot on earth.It's North Korea and you're asking for a logical reason? They have a crazy #### running the place.Why?Time Kibitzer said:Mr. Pickles said:
Because it is the darkest spot on earth.It's North Korea and you're asking for a logical reason? They have a crazy #### running the place.Why?Time Kibitzer said:Mr. Pickles said:Though North Korea is a bit more extreme. They created "cities" with the intention of no one ever living there; such as the city Kijŏng-dong which contains large buildings/apartments that have electricity but don't have interior rooms or windows.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Very impressive; just kind of hovers over Seoul, blots out the sun.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Never asked for a logical reason, just simply why. (and there is an actual answer in your link)Because it is the darkest spot on earth.It's North Korea and you're asking for a logical reason? They have a crazy #### running the place.Why?Time Kibitzer said:Mr. Pickles said:Though North Korea is a bit more extreme. They created "cities" with the intention of no one ever living there; such as the city Kijŏng-dong which contains large buildings/apartments that have electricity but don't have interior rooms or windows.
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![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
johnnycakes
Footballguy
This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
This is an interesting urban planning, particularly if the manufacturing is to follow. Very often I look at the inefficencies of American or really any western city crafted and concieved pre-war, and thats typically restricted to water based manufacturing or trade. They are designs built on expansion and the continual tacking on.
To attempt to design and THEN to instill the economic engine, well, I don't know if that makes sense but it is fascinating.
To attempt to design and THEN to instill the economic engine, well, I don't know if that makes sense but it is fascinating.
Fensalk
Footballguy
If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
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You've been reading Tom Friedman too much.
hooter311
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
You mean Godzirra.
Fensalk
Footballguy
I just think its a bad business decision. No savvy businessman is going to outlay this much in resources before its needed, because its an unnecessary risk. If this is an example of what China thinks is good business then this line of thinking will come back to haunt them and sooner rather than later.johnnycakes said:Again, I think we're seeing only part of the picture. This is China... billions of people. They do not want sudden, massive influxes of peasants from the countryside into existing cities. And it's not like any company - western or Chinese - can just decide to buy up a piece of property and build a plant like we do here. Everything needs government approval. How do you know there aren't numerous manufacturers who have signed deals to build manufacturing plants in these cities, once the infrastructure is in place? It's just not like the Chinese to build up these massive cities, spending tons of money, for no reason at all. They are extraordinarily frugal. Again, I'm just guessing, but I suspect within the next 5 years, we're going to see substantial industry in what are now "ghost cities", and not by luck or happenstance, but by design.If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Some of these may not be bad ideas. China is seeing a second shift of industry/people moving inland as the coastal regions where most industry is now is seeing inflation and higher wages compared to the inland areas. There has been some massive projects to use inland waterways to help support that shift.
johnnycakes
Footballguy
Okaaay.... maybe so. we'll see. I can tell you, though, I was just recently hired to negotiate a contract to delivery 10,000 metric tons minimum of environmentally-friendly snow melt material from the U.S. to Shanghai. The deal is still in process, but that's an awful lot of snow-melt... the contract would run to April. They're specifically looking for potassium acetate or sodium acetate, or some combination of these. No chlorides.I just think its a bad business decision. No savvy businessman is going to outlay this much in resources before its needed, because its an unnecessary risk. If this is an example of what China thinks is good business then this line of thinking will come back to haunt them and sooner rather than later.johnnycakes said:Again, I think we're seeing only part of the picture. This is China... billions of people. They do not want sudden, massive influxes of peasants from the countryside into existing cities. And it's not like any company - western or Chinese - can just decide to buy up a piece of property and build a plant like we do here. Everything needs government approval. How do you know there aren't numerous manufacturers who have signed deals to build manufacturing plants in these cities, once the infrastructure is in place? It's just not like the Chinese to build up these massive cities, spending tons of money, for no reason at all. They are extraordinarily frugal. Again, I'm just guessing, but I suspect within the next 5 years, we're going to see substantial industry in what are now "ghost cities", and not by luck or happenstance, but by design.If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
Where do you suppose all this is going? Northern China, where temps can go -20C to -30C. And they are absolutely hell-bent on keeping these roads open under heavy snow and freezing cold temps... and that's where a lot of these ghost cities are located.
And my cut? $1 per ton.
Need to make this work!
ODoyleRules
Footballguy
It's my limited impression that the Chinese are not great planners, but are excellent adapters. They'll be all right.
hxperson
Footballguy
This buildout is likely funded by the govt, not private corporations. No private business would ever take on this kind of risk, which is why the govt has to fund it. The govt is likely doing this because they have specific plans with regard to urban migration trends and resource deployment...but only they know the full reasons for them.A housing bubble burst would absolutly not hurt the Chinese population as much as it hurt Americans in2008/2009. They have much lower household debt % and the house makes up a much smaller proportion of their overall wealth. Also, the Chinese govt wants housing prices to fall - they want to improve housing affordability for all the rural migrants and young college grads that currently do not have have homes in the city.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
That's a heck of a long term plan. At least one of the ghost cities pictured is over a decade old. Which means that things are probably already starting to fall into disrepair. IMO, so far these ghost cities are just a good example of why communism fails on a large level. Mis-allocation of resources.johnnycakes said:Again, I think we're seeing only part of the picture. This is China... billions of people. They do not want sudden, massive influxes of peasants from the countryside into existing cities. And it's not like any company - western or Chinese - can just decide to buy up a piece of property and build a plant like we do here. Everything needs government approval. How do you know there aren't numerous manufacturers who have signed deals to build manufacturing plants in these cities, once the infrastructure is in place? It's just not like the Chinese to build up these massive cities, spending tons of money, for no reason at all. They are extraordinarily frugal. Again, I'm just guessing, but I suspect within the next 5 years, we're going to see substantial industry in what are now "ghost cities", and not by luck or happenstance, but by design.If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
snitwitch
Footballguy
I can't stand him, but simple demographics dictate that China will be the world's #1 economic power before too long.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
TIME also did a spooky photo essay on the ghost city of Ordos a while ago. This region is not well known in the US but its per capita income is ranked between Shanghai and Beijing.
LINK
Talk about a government stimulation package! It was part of an infrastructure project to boost China's GPD. Many of the houses and apartments were purchased by speculators, but they remained empty because prices were too high for people who live in the old city nearby.
Actually, I was little surprised that the government didn't make people relocate. When I visited China a few years earlier a tour guide told me that the government could order people to move whether they like it or not. In Beijing for example, some families had to give up their properties in the city and move 1-2 hrs away to the suburbs because where they lived was being re-zoned for businesses. Supposedly they were "compensated" with more living space, but it was like exchanging your Fifth Avenue apartment in NYC for a larger house in New Jersey. At the time, I also read in the local newspaper that the government was relocating some factories a few hundred miles away to reduce pollution, and all the workers had to move too if they wanted to keep their jobs.
LINK
Talk about a government stimulation package! It was part of an infrastructure project to boost China's GPD. Many of the houses and apartments were purchased by speculators, but they remained empty because prices were too high for people who live in the old city nearby.
Actually, I was little surprised that the government didn't make people relocate. When I visited China a few years earlier a tour guide told me that the government could order people to move whether they like it or not. In Beijing for example, some families had to give up their properties in the city and move 1-2 hrs away to the suburbs because where they lived was being re-zoned for businesses. Supposedly they were "compensated" with more living space, but it was like exchanging your Fifth Avenue apartment in NYC for a larger house in New Jersey. At the time, I also read in the local newspaper that the government was relocating some factories a few hundred miles away to reduce pollution, and all the workers had to move too if they wanted to keep their jobs.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
And democratic governments don't mis-allocate resources?That's a heck of a long term plan. At least one of the ghost cities pictured is over a decade old. Which means that things are probably already starting to fall into disrepair. IMO, so far these ghost cities are just a good example of why communism fails on a large level. Mis-allocation of resources.johnnycakes said:Again, I think we're seeing only part of the picture. This is China... billions of people. They do not want sudden, massive influxes of peasants from the countryside into existing cities. And it's not like any company - western or Chinese - can just decide to buy up a piece of property and build a plant like we do here. Everything needs government approval. How do you know there aren't numerous manufacturers who have signed deals to build manufacturing plants in these cities, once the infrastructure is in place? It's just not like the Chinese to build up these massive cities, spending tons of money, for no reason at all. They are extraordinarily frugal. Again, I'm just guessing, but I suspect within the next 5 years, we're going to see substantial industry in what are now "ghost cities", and not by luck or happenstance, but by design.If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
johnnycakes
Footballguy
Fixed.Okaaay.... maybe so. we'll see.
I can tell you, though, I was just recently hired to negotiate a contract to delivery 10,000 metric tons minimum per day of environmentally-friendly snow melt material from the U.S. to Shanghai. The deal is still in process, but that's an awful lot of snow-melt... the contract would run to April. They're specifically looking for potassium acetate or sodium acetate, or some combination of these. No chlorides.
Where do you suppose all this is going? Northern China, where temps can go -20C to -30C. And they are absolutely hell-bent on keeping these roads open under heavy snow and freezing cold temps... and that's where a lot of these ghost cities are located.
And my cut? $1 per ton.Need to make this work!
TylerRoseFan
Footballguy
I wonder if we could get in on some of that action. I wonder how much some of that real estate is.
Masked Vigilante
Footballguy
I'll split a duplex with you Snake.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think you mean capitalist economies since that would be the apples to apples comparison. And capitalist economies definitely allocate resources improperly, but rarely on this big of a scale and when those mistakes are made, they're quickly fixed.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
In communist China, the city moves to you. Or something like that.This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.BobbyLayne said:Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
Jayrod
Footballguy
Fixed.Okaaay.... maybe so. we'll see.
I can tell you, though, I was just recently hired to negotiate a contract to delivery 10,000 metric tons minimum per day of environmentally-friendly snow melt material from the U.S. to Shanghai. The deal is still in process, but that's an awful lot of snow-melt... the contract would run to April. They're specifically looking for potassium acetate or sodium acetate, or some combination of these. No chlorides.
Where do you suppose all this is going? Northern China, where temps can go -20C to -30C. And they are absolutely hell-bent on keeping these roads open under heavy snow and freezing cold temps... and that's where a lot of these ghost cities are located.
And my cut? $1 per ton.Need to make this work!
Most of the suppliers of this stuff are located in China.link
johnnycakes
Footballguy
Yeah, I know. And I also know price is going to be a huge factor in the decision, and we are absolutely NOT low... not only that, we aren't even close. But I don't know about the quality of what is available in China, either. This isn't quite like dumping down road salt... the potassium acetate comes in liquid form and needs to be put down before a storm; the sodium acetete can be put down afterwards. What I was telling them was I wasn't just selling them bulk chemical, but chemical refined, processed, and shaped especially for de-icing. It's probably not going to go through, though... I know about where the Chinese suppliers are coming in price-wise, and unless they have money to burn (and they may), I doubt I'll get the contract.Fixed.Okaaay.... maybe so. we'll see.
I can tell you, though, I was just recently hired to negotiate a contract to delivery 10,000 metric tons minimum per day of environmentally-friendly snow melt material from the U.S. to Shanghai. The deal is still in process, but that's an awful lot of snow-melt... the contract would run to April. They're specifically looking for potassium acetate or sodium acetate, or some combination of these. No chlorides.
Where do you suppose all this is going? Northern China, where temps can go -20C to -30C. And they are absolutely hell-bent on keeping these roads open under heavy snow and freezing cold temps... and that's where a lot of these ghost cities are located.
And my cut? $1 per ton.
The Ref
Footballguy
If you belive what Jim Chanos says (he called Enron and the US housing bubble and made billions), China is in the middle of the bigest bubble in the history of man. At the hight of the US housing boom construction was 15% of GDP. Right now in China 60% of GDP is related to construciton. Thats the reason why they are building ghost cities - to keep everyone employed.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/08/j...e_n_416714.html
Jim Chanos, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager: China Is Headed For A Crash
SHANGHAI -- James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/08/j...e_n_416714.html
Jim Chanos, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager: China Is Headed For A Crash
SHANGHAI -- James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
Dexter
Footballguy
What you don't understand is there is no risk. If China wants to move a population there they can and will. If they want to move factories there again they will. It's not like here were the people have rights.I just think its a bad business decision. No savvy businessman is going to outlay this much in resources before its needed, because its an unnecessary risk. If this is an example of what China thinks is good business then this line of thinking will come back to haunt them and sooner rather than later.johnnycakes said:Again, I think we're seeing only part of the picture. This is China... billions of people. They do not want sudden, massive influxes of peasants from the countryside into existing cities. And it's not like any company - western or Chinese - can just decide to buy up a piece of property and build a plant like we do here. Everything needs government approval. How do you know there aren't numerous manufacturers who have signed deals to build manufacturing plants in these cities, once the infrastructure is in place? It's just not like the Chinese to build up these massive cities, spending tons of money, for no reason at all. They are extraordinarily frugal. Again, I'm just guessing, but I suspect within the next 5 years, we're going to see substantial industry in what are now "ghost cities", and not by luck or happenstance, but by design.If a corporation built several campuses and left them sitting unused for years, would you think they were planning on going on a massive hiring spree and telling their workers to relocate to these campuses? Or would you think they are taking wild and foolish risks with their venture capital?This is China. Build it, they will be told to come. Especially if some big manufacturers start building manufacturing plants nearby. My guess is these are cities in the making... we're only seeing part of the picture, without knowing what the long-term plan is.Build it, they will come
OK, wait for it...wait...wait...
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