Given 2009's crazy QB numbers (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

2009 saw some crazy fantasy QB production. Here is the breakdown in the salary cap era in terms of how many QBs scored 300 fantasy points and 250 fantasy points:

2009 10 18

2008 7 13

2007 8 14

2006 6 9

2005 2 13

2004 7 14

2003 4 13

2002 9 14

2001 8 13

2000 6 11

1999 4 8

1998 3 11

1997 4 10

1996 6 6

1995 6 11

1994 4 10

Given that histroy suggests that there will be a dip in scoring in 2010, what is your QB draft strategy this year and is that different in other seasons?

IMO, since there seemingly are a lot more high scoring options than there used to be, I personally would be inclined to take the last of the first tier or second tier guys and would avoid getting into a QBBC. In prior years, I would have advocated taking one of the elite guys early and if not I would have been happy to wait and mix and match later on as there was not that much difference between those options and the guys in the 5-10 range.

My concern this year in waiting until all the top guys are gone is that there could be a ton of points from the pack vs. the QBBC leftovers when in prior years the scoring differential was marginal.

I do think there will not be as many guys with 4000/25 , but I do think that passing totals overall will remain high. I also think that the flag football rules instituted to protect QBs played a role in the inflated numbers.

What are the rest of you doing at the QB spot this season?

 

[finito]

I almost always wait at QB, and this year will be no exception. I'm usually the last to draft a QB, and it's backfired on me a couple of times, where someone drafted their backup QB before I had my starting one and I was forced into taking a Garrard/Flacco type as my #1. This year I'll be tempting fate again, as I prefer to load up at RB/WR and wait on QB/TEs, as I feel there are a lot of options there.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think this is an interesting question, and I too agree that the numbers from last year will probably regress. I think you can count on at least a couple quarterbacks putting up well over 4000 yards and at least 25 touchdowns. I think that Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, and Romo are ahead of the other guys and I figure it's worth it to just take the last one of those guys left. I figure that the top scoring QB is probably going to score a large number of points, and it would be prudent to try and stay somewhat close to that. I've thought QBBC was the way to go before, but I have a feeling that the difference between the top and middle of the pack might be too big a statistical disadvantage this year. Not to mention the fact that high round QB picks are generally safer and offer week to week consistency in point production.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Ask yourself this. Is the difference between the end of the top tier and a Flacco / Big Ben combo large enough to justify a 5 round gap? It's closer than you'd think.

 

[radballs]

Best ball leagues: Might wait even a bit longer than normal.

Start Em leagues: Unsure at this point but may pull the trigger a little earlier than normal depending on how my first five to six picks roll off the board. In ppr or super-ppr leagues at TE, I still have trouble envisioning taking a QB before TE1, RB1, and WR1,2, and 3.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I don't think it's worth taking QB 1 or 2, I'm looking to take Qb's 5 or 6, guys at the end of that tier. IF that someone doesn't work out, I'd look to go QBBC with C. Henne and look for a QB that's not a bye and has decent passing matchups during the weeks the Dolphins play the Jets as I don't plan on starting any QB's against the Jets this year and that includes Tom Brady.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

The only problem that I have with waiting on the last of the tier is the risk of missing it altogether. You can count on 2 going in the first round, another 2 in the 2nd round, a pause, maybe a late 3rd, and then you might be sweating bullets to get the last of the tier before the end of the 4th. You take your chances that this strategy doesn't backfire and you are forced into a David Garrard/Cutler like committee.

I probably overvalue, but the top tier won't be lasting to the 4th round anymore in my leagues, and I will be jumping on one to secure that type of production. I prefer the piece of mind.

 

[ookook]

I am a big QBBC owner and your numbers just reinforce how well it probably worked for many of us last year.

I will wait until 10 or 12 are off the board and start looking for 3 of: Eli, Favre, McNabb, Henne, Leinart, Big Ben, Moore.

Probably start looking round 9 or so.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

With McNabb moving to Washington, Kolb is added as another potentially elite option. Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, VY, and Henne should all take steps forward. Eli, Cutler, and Palmer are set up to be better than last year. Favre and Big Ben are values because of age and a suspension. All of these QBs can be had outside of the top 7, and that doesnt even include guys like Cassel, Campbell, Sanchez, and Freeman who could surprise.

I think this year more than ever it pays to wait on QB and spend multiple picks in the 7th-12th round range. RB is also deeper, so that RB you eschew for taking a QB in the 3rd or 4th is better than usual.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think you have to use the conventional reaction in your favor. Last year was a season when so many people waited on a QB and got elite production, that they're going to look at this as a secular change in the way the NFL works (people ALWAYS focus on what happened year much more than longer term trends/norms), and assume that waiting makes sense yet again. I think the shark move, as a result, is to target one of the elite options who have shown they can put up dynamic QB1-5 numbers even in a more normalized environment.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ask yourself this. Is the difference between the end of the top tier and a Flacco / Big Ben combo large enough to justify a 5 round gap? It's closer than you'd think.

Sure, but let's remember that in the vast majority of leagues, owners still have to set a lineup and pick one QB each week. When you factor in the complexity (and variability) of trying to figure out whether to start Flacco or Big Ben (in your example) over someone like Peyton Manning each and every (non bye) week, the differential can be much wider.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think you have to use the conventional reaction in your favor. Last year was a season when so many people waited on a QB and got elite production, that they're going to look at this as a secular change in the way the NFL works (people ALWAYS focus on what happened year much more than longer term trends/norms), and assume that waiting makes sense yet again. I think the shark move, as a result, is to target one of the elite options who have shown they can put up dynamic QB1-5 numbers even in a more normalized environment.

I have to agree with Jason. I waited on quarterback last year, and it definitely paid off for me. I just think that this season's numbers are going to look different from last year. If you combine that with what looks to be a lot of talent in the wide receiver pool this season, I think that going after one of the top tier quarterbacks can really work out in your favor.

 

[ookook]

I play in about 8 leagues a year.

For the most part, QBs are taken pretty early compared to when I think it makes sense to. So not sure many owners will shift their strategies Jason. I think they feel rewarded for spending early picks and will again.

Even people who know VBD well seem to think QBis an exception.

 

[Jason Wood]

I play in about 8 leagues a year.For the most part, QBs are taken pretty early compared to when I think it makes sense to. So not sure many owners will shift their strategies Jason. I think they feel rewarded for spending early picks and will again.Even people who know VBD well seem to think QBis an exception.

It's definitely important to know your individual league tendencies. If you have a league that always overvalues QB, then a QBBC is likely the smart move. But in terms of trend analysis, this year portends going back to stud QB.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I play in about 8 leagues a year.For the most part, QBs are taken pretty early compared to when I think it makes sense to. So not sure many owners will shift their strategies Jason. I think they feel rewarded for spending early picks and will again.Even people who know VBD well seem to think QBis an exception.

Well, you bring up the good point that it really comes down to what happens on draft day for your specific league. I'm just projecting that we're not going to see 9 different 4200 yard passers this year, and trying to figure out the best way to take advantage of owners who think that might be the case.

 

[rizzler]

I will definitely be targeting one of the Elite QB1s within the first 3 rounds of the draft... If im trending on the latter part of our 12 man draft, say picks 9-12, I would consider an Aaron Rodgers.

I would much rather prefer to grab a matt schaub or tony romo in the 3rd (if they even last that long), but I have to get my hands on a top tier QB....

My league tends to draft the elite QBs early... so I have to make a choice... wait it out til the 3rd or risk having those guys gone and having to try and nab a Kolb, Manning, Flacco in rounds 5-8.

I see myself having to go Elite in the first 2 rounds, which some people may find a poor strategy, but I find my best teams are always lead by a TD throwing machine at QB and great value picks in the mid rounds.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think that another thing to keep in mind is that some players may wish to avoid risk at the top of the draft. I would imagine that a 3rd round QB is probably a safer investment than a 3rd round RB.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I think you have to use the conventional reaction in your favor. Last year was a season when so many people waited on a QB and got elite production, that they're going to look at this as a secular change in the way the NFL works (people ALWAYS focus on what happened year much more than longer term trends/norms), and assume that waiting makes sense yet again. I think the shark move, as a result, is to target one of the elite options who have shown they can put up dynamic QB1-5 numbers even in a more normalized environment.

IMO, there are eight QBs with a legitimate shot to be within the top five at year's end. These are:RodgersBrees-----Tier here----ManningSchaubRomoBradyRiversFavreHowever, due to uncertainty over Favre's conditioning/age factors, I consider him more risky than the others in this list. So there are seven guys who I would be comfortable calling a "fire-and-forget" QB starter this year, a guy you can plug in each week and get top-tier production more often than not.Rodgers and Brees will battle it out for #1, IMO, and are 20-35 fantasy points ahead of the next tier in my book (~1-2 FP a week on average)Manning, Schaub, Romo, Brady, Rivers and Favre all have the ability/situation/supporting cast to land at #3 among QBs, IMO (~9 fantasy points seperate Manning from Rivers on my initial board, with another ~10 point drop down to Favre - one solid "boom" game would erase that sort of margin so they are all essentially in the same tier for me, with a slight negative to Favre as noted earlier). After the top seven, there are a lot of guys with upside potential (Ryan, E. Manning), but I think you'll see more variability in their games from week to week below the top two tiers. I'm aiming to draft one of the top seven QBs on my list this year, depending on league scoring rules, draft position and dynamics in any given draft - I may go QB as early as round one (when I draft in the lower 3-4 picks) or as late as early-mid third round.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

For me this year in particular, a reason why I may go QB in rounds 1-3 is because I think the top end WRs are fairly uncertain. After Andre Johnson, I don't think anyone can say with confidence that a particular player will finish the year as #2. Fitz, Austin, DJax, VJax, Colston, Jennings, Wayne, Crabtree, SSmith, SSmith, Rice, Roddy, Randy Moss, Marshall, Ochocinco, Boldin. It's incredibly difficult for me to try to rank these guys this year, and as such I don't think it would be a bad strategy to grab a top 6 QB by rounds 1-3 and take whichever WRs fall to rounds 3-5.

 

[Superdbs]

For me this year in particular, a reason why I may go QB in rounds 1-3 is because I think the top end WRs are fairly uncertain. After Andre Johnson, I don't think anyone can say with confidence that a particular player will finish the year as #2. Fitz, Austin, DJax, VJax, Colston, Jennings, Wayne, Crabtree, SSmith, SSmith, Rice, Roddy, Randy Moss, Marshall, Ochocinco, Boldin. It's incredibly difficult for me to try to rank these guys this year, and as such I don't think it would be a bad strategy to grab a top 6 QB by rounds 1-3 and take whichever WRs fall to rounds 3-5.

:( I'm struggling with this in my main league, and I think I change my mind almost daily. Don't usually take QBs early, but the lower-tier guys this season seem sketchier than usual to me, and not a lot of upside. If Johnson is off the board by my 1st pick, I'd be happy getting Brees or Manning, plug him in for the year, and not have to worry about it. Then, just try to make solid WR picks in the mid-rounds, because there's no real seperation between the 2-15 wideouts right now.

 

[degenerate]

i'm seeing conflicting opinions in regards to qb's this year. some say you have to grab a top 3 early since wr's are evenly spread through top 15, but i also see some say there are roughly 8 qb's that could end up in the top 5 at year's end, so you should wait and grab one later.

im trying to figure out which way to go in a nonppr auction league. im leaning towards romo instead of spending a lot on the top 3

 

[Go deep]

I always take a QB late. How late depends on how much i like a certain QB that i think i can get late. Last year i loved Schaub, so i just made sure i took him in round 6-7, probably a round higher than his ADP. Right now i dont really see a QB i like as much, but its still early. I keep seeing people refer to the "top 3", which makes me think if i were drafting now i would be drafting Phillip Rivers, as i think he is part of the "top 4". If i was sure Big Ben would slide i would bank on him, but if i missed on him i would be in deep poop, so i might not be the last guy to draft a QB this year.

 

[gandalas]

In my only new dynasty startup I am joining this year, we can start up to THREE QBs. I landed the 1.9 draft position in a 10-team league, so I traded my 1.9 away and got an extra 2nd and 3rd.

For QBs in this crazy league, I landed Romo at 2.6 (6th QB off the board), and Cutler at 3.5 (8th QB off the board). I then waited until 13.9 to take Garrard as my 3rd QB (31st QB off the board).

I think Romo can definitely outperform his QB6 position, as I expect him to hit the top-5, and I think that Cutler at QB8 is about relative to what I expect from him. Picking up Garrard as the QB31 was a nice find.

Still, this is the only league where up to 3QBs can be started I have ever heard of, so I figured that I needed to get 2 of the top-10 right off the bat.

 

[mggoilers]

This all depends on the league and settings

My keeper league - you can win with a top 10 QB, good balance wins.

My 2nd keeper league - 2 QB league, you need 2 very nice QBs

Redraft League - I've played in this league for 3 years. Year 1 drafted a QB in the 6th round(finished 10th). .Last 2 years drafted a QB in the 1st round, finished 1st and 2nd and missed a championship by 2 points.

That redraft requires you draft a top QB early.

Know your league and settings

 

[Go deep]

This all depends on the league and settings

My keeper league - you can win with a top 10 QB, good balance wins.

My 2nd keeper league - 2 QB league, you need 2 very nice QBs

Redraft League - I've played in this league for 3 years. Year 1 drafted a QB in the 6th round(finished 10th). .Last 2 years drafted a QB in the 1st round, finished 1st and 2nd and missed a championship by 2 points.

That redraft requires you draft a top QB early.

Know your league and settings

fixed

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Ask yourself this. Is the difference between the end of the top tier and a Flacco / Big Ben combo large enough to justify a 5 round gap? It's closer than you'd think.

Sure, but let's remember that in the vast majority of leagues, owners still have to set a lineup and pick one QB each week. When you factor in the complexity (and variability) of trying to figure out whether to start Flacco or Big Ben (in your example) over someone like Peyton Manning each and every (non bye) week, the differential can be much wider.

Your argument can be used for any position. For instance, the player you mention (Manning) carries a second round slot. At that slot you can grab an elite tier WR and pencil him in "each and every week". Breaking it down a bit more shows that the QB's I mention will be drafted after the 8th round. An 8th round WR will not be in your starting line up without question. Would you rather Manning and a wr like Britt or Big Ben and Autin Miles come playoff time? It all boils down to position scarcity and ADP. My strategy allows for much more value and flexability.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I am curious what people think about leagues that reward td passes with 6 points? That's when things start to change in my eyes.

 

[two_dollars]

I am targeting Manning because of what Big Mike said. I am looking to grab a top qb, a top rb, a wr 1, a top te, then spending the next 6 rounds on middle rb's and wr's.