Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
GMen/Cowboy owners, beware of weather Sunday! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Da Gildz
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
another weather thread
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
ZOMG!!! snow? 30 degree weather? 20 MPH winds!! Benching Romo, Dez, Cruz, and cutting my Dallas kicker. Thanks OP!
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
Snow and rain are not significant when it comes to betting lines. Wind is. So, if it is windy why would you not want to be aware of it and decide accordingly?
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
This is the kind of talk that got Josh Gordon owners in trouble last week.
Anything can happen, and bad weather affects cornerbacks and safeties too, so I don't see much of a reason to change who you are going to start unless it was already a close call between players.
Anything can happen, and bad weather affects cornerbacks and safeties too, so I don't see much of a reason to change who you are going to start unless it was already a close call between players.
False Start
Footballguy
They will just delay the game in the middle of it if it becomes an issue.
GregR
Footballguy
Bad weather affects the footing of safeties and corners too, sure.
But corners and safeties don't throw passes, while offenses do. Since bad weather, especially wind, affects passes, there is an edge to the defense. It also can shift the run-pass ratio towards runs a little more, which is worth knowing for FF.
I don't think they will. The delay last week wasn't because of cold, snow, or wind. It was because of the potential for dangerous thunderstorms and tornadoes, if I'm not mistaken. The precedent to play football in cold, snow, wind, rain, etc are all there-only when they feel the lives/health of spectators might be at risk to they consider delaying.
While this is true, it's not very logical to worry about this over 48 hours in advance. the weather can change very much between now and then. When I check the weather on Sunday, it's calling for cold temps, no snow, and winds UP TO 20 MPH. That doesn't mean constant winds at 20+, it means gusts could get up to 20. If you're choosing between 2 equal players, I can see going with another guy, but as Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and Josh Gordon showed last week, weather shouldn't cause you to sit a guy who is clearly better than your alternatives.
False Start
Footballguy
25-30 mph winds now being projected. Hey, meadowlands winds are like no other. Add in the snow probability and lack of visibility that goes along with that, you're crazy if u don't think this will impact both passing games. Any owners of these players better hope the weather forecast changes.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I can't wait for the Super Bowl.
Where are you seeing this?
All I can find is 14-21 mph winds, dying down in the afternoon/evening, when the game is being played.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
BENCH ALL STUDS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
Judge Smails
Footballguy
25-30 mph winds may actually help Eli's accuracy. Start him with confidence.
dangerman77
Footballguy
Starting Coughin's frostbite face with confidence.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Great, another excuse for Romo to ignore Dez all night.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Here in northern NJ, just outside of East Rutherford, it has been sunny and 50ish on SB sunday for each of the past few seasons.quality golf weather for these parts. ths isnt Minnesota or Buffalo..we're in the middle of bad drought, said to continue throughout the '14 summer..so snow is unlikely. something weird happens every year , it's unseasonable warm end of Jan first week of Feb..I've had softball practices in late January, with weather comfortably in the high 50's..
as for sunday, nj.com/weather says 34 flurries partly cloudy. in fact, cable ch 61 weather makes no mention of winds on sunday. just that it'll be 26 overnight saturday..Both offenses should flourish..I wouldnt sit any star player.
Super King
Footballguy
dangerman77 said:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
After all the crap we were worried about last week, I am starting my studs unless the world is ending that week and it starts in that city
Dizzy
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
agent orange
Footballguy
Go go, Andre Brown! Perfect weather and opponent for a strong running game. 
Last edited by a moderator:
False Start
Footballguy
From weather.gov and weather.com. Snow not looking likely but...
SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Tomorrow
31°
Partly Cloudy / Wind
Mostly sunny skies with gusty winds. High 31F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
Sent from my iPhone
SundayMostly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Tomorrow
31°
Partly Cloudy / Wind
Mostly sunny skies with gusty winds. High 31F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
Sent from my iPhone
As long as he still puts up numbers he can choke as much as he wants lol
Squintz82
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Andre Brown called and asked me to "Like This."
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I don't know why people only bring this up with kickers it seems but cold, precipitation, wind is an issue every year in places like any of GB, CLE, PHI, PIT, NY, NE, KC, BUF, SEA, DEN at any given time. Nobody ever says they'd rather have some dome/sunbelt QB or WR instead of say Rodgers or Welker because of late season sleet.
Meadowlands:
Cold but not windy in GB:
This week in CLE:
Boston/Foxborough/Mansfield:
http://nflweather.com/game/2013/week-12/broncos-at-patriots
Last edited by a moderator:
lod01
Footballguy
This should help Gomer. His passes will now veer off course and into the hands of his WRs. Starting Gomer with confidence.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The Ohio State game in Columbus sure looks cold and white on the ground.
G
General Tso
Guest
Heard the same thing last week about the Pittsburgh game. How did Roethlisberger make out in that one?
Weather is extremely overrated in fantasy football.
Weather is extremely overrated in fantasy football.
G
General Tso
Guest
That right there is enough reason to watch the game.dangerman77 said:
The Pitts game last week dealt more with rain than wind. Rain by itself is no big deal.
LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
People saying weather's not gonna be a problem? You're gonna be in for a treat if the gust is strong tomorrow.
Rain and snow doesn't really matter as long as it's not windy.
If there are 40 mph gusts, it's gonna affect the passing and the kicking game for sure.
We might need to keep a close eye this before the game starts.
Rain and snow doesn't really matter as long as it's not windy.
If there are 40 mph gusts, it's gonna affect the passing and the kicking game for sure.
We might need to keep a close eye this before the game starts.
G
General Tso
Guest
The forecast going into the game was wind and rain. Trust me, almost every time they warn about the weather it turns into a high scoring game. It's like a weird reverse lock or something.
G
General Tso
Guest
Oh, and by the way, when there is high wind in a game, like Buffalo last week, how did EJ Manuel do? 20-28 with 245 yards and 2 touchdowns.
fatness
Footballguy
0% chance of precipitation right now according to Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=New%20York%20City,%20New%20York
We're just talking about wind, in a stadium that's always windy.
We're just talking about wind, in a stadium that's always windy.
GregR
Footballguy
We expect a range of results that are possible, whether we're in rain, snow, sleet, a gale force wind, or playing in a dome. Pointing out a single result, whether it is that EJ Manuel went 20-28 for 245 and 2 touchdowns on a windy day or pointing out that Geno Smith went 8-28 for 103 and 0 TDs and 3 INTs in the same exact windy game, doesn't prove anything one way or another. Both of those are outcomes that are possible in most any weather condition so we can't draw a lot of conclusion from just 2 samples on a windy day.
If we want to know whether and/or how weather affects an NFL game, we have to look at it over a large sample where other factors can be expected to average out. Here is a great article on it that does exactly this.
TL;DR? Then just look at this chart. It shows you that on average, for home teams adjusted yards per pass attempt drops from around 6.4 with no wind to 5.6 with 20 yard sustained wind speeds, a change of about 12%, while visiting teams who are normally less efficient anyway due to home field, it drops from about 6.1 to about 5.4, again about the same size drop off.
The other effect to take into account is change in run/pass ratio. Again, for the TL;DR folks, check out this chart. There definitely is a shift in ratio, though it doesn't get significant until about 15 miles per hour. Again, his study that's sustained wind speed, not gust speed. The amount also should matter to us. For high wind games (20-25 mph) then teams are changing on average about 2-3 plays from passes to runs per game.
Is that significant? Well it depends. People are saying "you shouldn't bench a Calvin Johnson for that". I seriously hope no one was considering they needed to anyway. But what we can see from this is that we might expect a full 10% drop in passing stats. Now if Calvin were playing in that game, a 10% drop is not going to put Donnie Avery ahead of him. Obviously. But it would be enough this week to drop him from WR1 to WR4. For a player who is in a bigger cluster of similar players, like Anquan Boldin, it might be enough to drop him 10 spots in rankings that had not taken weather into account.
It doesn't mean each player is going to have a bad day or a good day, and if he has a good day that no more disproves the effect of wind than having a bad day proves it. All that we can say is we should expect him to have a little bit worse day than we did before, and now we can quantify it as being somewhere around 10%
If we want to know whether and/or how weather affects an NFL game, we have to look at it over a large sample where other factors can be expected to average out. Here is a great article on it that does exactly this.
TL;DR? Then just look at this chart. It shows you that on average, for home teams adjusted yards per pass attempt drops from around 6.4 with no wind to 5.6 with 20 yard sustained wind speeds, a change of about 12%, while visiting teams who are normally less efficient anyway due to home field, it drops from about 6.1 to about 5.4, again about the same size drop off.
The other effect to take into account is change in run/pass ratio. Again, for the TL;DR folks, check out this chart. There definitely is a shift in ratio, though it doesn't get significant until about 15 miles per hour. Again, his study that's sustained wind speed, not gust speed. The amount also should matter to us. For high wind games (20-25 mph) then teams are changing on average about 2-3 plays from passes to runs per game.
Is that significant? Well it depends. People are saying "you shouldn't bench a Calvin Johnson for that". I seriously hope no one was considering they needed to anyway. But what we can see from this is that we might expect a full 10% drop in passing stats. Now if Calvin were playing in that game, a 10% drop is not going to put Donnie Avery ahead of him. Obviously. But it would be enough this week to drop him from WR1 to WR4. For a player who is in a bigger cluster of similar players, like Anquan Boldin, it might be enough to drop him 10 spots in rankings that had not taken weather into account.
It doesn't mean each player is going to have a bad day or a good day, and if he has a good day that no more disproves the effect of wind than having a bad day proves it. All that we can say is we should expect him to have a little bit worse day than we did before, and now we can quantify it as being somewhere around 10%
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
PFT:
Could also be said of games played in high humidity, fog, overcast, partly cloudy, 70 degrees and sunny, climate-controlled domes, etc.
Last edited by a moderator:
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
IIRC, Tony Romo has one of the highest winning percentages of any QB in the history of the NFL in the month of November.
