Gold/Silver. Good time to buy? (1 Viewer)

[ren hoek]

Guess I'm at the point in life where I watch boomers talk about gold/silver.  But I think this talk pretty well explained the dramatic rise in silver the past couple months:

https://youtu.be/9EOPKizJ_Y4 (yes, there is some bizarre stuff on that channel but I think Hemke is making sense here)

Basically JP Morgan built out a vault and accumulated a massive stockpile of 150 million ounces of silver, have raked in massive profits shorting against it and are now in a position where they are forced to stop shorting.  Turd Ferguson Metals Report

 

[ren hoek]

Yeah--- I think the "real" economy and small business is in huge trouble. For many years now--our government and politicians made a decision to sacrifice the working class in favor of the investing and large business class.   They've kept working wages down while the cost of living continues to go up--and the fed running the printing presses day and night since the economic bubble through multiple phases of quantitative easing, keeping the dollar cheap through dropping interest rates are all taking us down a path to a point where the dollar is losing more and more credibility and value every day.   For decades we were lucky that other countres respected the dollar enough to where we could just print some up and send it to them in exchange for goods and services.   Now that they see that we arbitrarily print it when we want to no end--it only takes one country to question if the US dollar really should be the reserve currency for the world.    That's why I've really been on the gold and silver train for a while.   I probably have the greatest percentage of my investments portfolio's value in gold and silver versus anybody else in the forum--but by no means would I consider myself "big time". Lol.  25-30% of the value of my portfolio is probably the equivalent of 2% of the portofolio values of a lot of the members here. Lol 

You’re right about the dollar losing credibility and reserve status.  What I didn’t anticipate was that the US govt would catalyze the process so dramatically.  

First they print 40% of the total money supply in just the past few years for “”“covid relief”””, do nothing about the debt, then basically force Russia and other countries to abandon the dollar.  Our genius rulers didn’t think there was enough economic pain in the world, so they tried to sanction the #### out of Russia over Ukraine.  What they did in reality was to sanction ourselves and the West at large out of eastern markets and away from dollar dominance.  

Russia is forcing countries now to pay for resources like LNG/wheat in rubles. They had a plan in place for when Washington would decide to financially cripple them, and now the whole world sees what a liability and freakshow the United States is.  Saudis and China are talking about pricing oil in yuan over USD, Russia has reportedly talked about linking the ruble to a flat gold price.  China’s version of the SWIFT financial system seems to be picking up ground too, after the West’s work jerking ‘unfriendly countries’ around.  The BRICS countries appear to be orchestrating a new financial order in real time.  Russia and China have been stockpiling gold for a long time now btw.  We’re witnessing a global realignment unlike anything we’ve ever seen.  

That’s the thing about being a country that produces nothing except war, defaults on its debts, consumes everything, and lives in total avarice- eventually the world gets tired of dealing with it.  I think you and I knew this was coming.  I just didn’t think it would happen so fast.  

 

[ren hoek]

https://youtu.be/GmPcnHod3Xs

 

[General Malaise]

I'm all in on Uranium per @General Malaise advise

Uranium spot price $62.50 now.  Probably not too late to buy some uranium related equities IF you think this movement is sustainable, and I do.  I like UUUU for its uranium AND rare earths profile.  
 

 

[Andrew74]

I’ve been holding a broad basket commodities fund for about 18 months now.  Going to keep holding but thinking about adding a dedicated gold ETF.  I think it can be a good hedge if either the economy powers ahead and inflation stays high or we have a recession. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

You’re right about the dollar losing credibility and reserve status.  What I didn’t anticipate was that the US govt would catalyze the process so dramatically.  

First they print 40% of the total money supply in just the past few years for “”“covid relief”””, do nothing about the debt, then basically force Russia and other countries to abandon the dollar.  Our genius rulers didn’t think there was enough economic pain in the world, so they tried to sanction the #### out of Russia over Ukraine.  What they did in reality was to sanction ourselves and the West at large out of eastern markets and away from dollar dominance.  

Russia is forcing countries now to pay for resources like LNG/wheat in rubles. They had a plan in place for when Washington would decide to financially cripple them, and now the whole world sees what a liability and freakshow the United States is.  Saudis and China are talking about pricing oil in yuan over USD, Russia has reportedly talked about linking the ruble to a flat gold price.  China’s version of the SWIFT financial system seems to be picking up ground too, after the West’s work jerking ‘unfriendly countries’ around.  The BRICS countries appear to be orchestrating a new financial order in real time.  Russia and China have been stockpiling gold for a long time now btw.  We’re witnessing a global realignment unlike anything we’ve ever seen.  

That’s the thing about being a country that produces nothing except war, defaults on its debts, consumes everything, and lives in total avarice- eventually the world gets tired of dealing with it.  I think you and I knew this was coming.  I just didn’t think it would happen so fast.  

Thank you for the shoutout brother. I agree with you.   I thought the dollar was bound to lose moderate to significant value in the short to medium term, and was going to lose credibility somewhere between the medium to long term.  It looks like both of these dynamics are happening at a higher rate than even I expected.  The reality of the situation is that other global entities have no choice but to question the long term merit of the US dollar when our own citizens here have lost faith in it.  When they see super wealthy Americans and American businesses and institutions doing what they can to not be too exposed to the US dollar—they too become skeptical and look for ways to hedge their exposure to having too many dollars. The Chinese owning gold is a perfect hedge.  We owe them lots of money—they know that we are incentivized to reduce the value of our currency to pay off that debt as cheaply as possible—so they buy gold—which happens to be priced in US dollars. That way if the dollar falls (or is purposely manipulated to lose value)—gold should counterbalance by going up. You also have crypto entering the equation.  We basically have a world where the dollar is not the biggest and most preferred avenue to conduct global commerce.  There are more acceptable options now.  Things are changing. 

Edit. We should probably give @fantasycurse42 a shout out too—as I know he called a lot of this too. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Seeing more people bullish on silver (like 10-20x in 5 years from now bullish) the last few weeks
Any FBG precious metal experts have an opinion.

 

[General Malaise]

Seeing more people bullish on silver (like 10-20x in 5 years from now bullish) the last few weeks
Any FBG precious metal experts have an opinion.

NOT an expert. I wouldn't touch silver with a ten foot pole. People have been bullish on silver for a long time and I'm not sure why now is the time to load up. What's the catalyst? What's the upside? Can it break and hold over $25? Or even $20? Are you buying physical? ETFs? Miners?

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Seeing more people bullish on silver (like 10-20x in 5 years from now bullish) the last few weeks
Any FBG precious metal experts have an opinion.

NOT an expert. I wouldn't touch silver with a ten foot pole. People have been bullish on silver for a long time and I'm not sure why now is the time to load up. What's the catalyst? What's the upside? Can it break and hold over $25? Or even $20? Are you buying physical? ETFs? Miners?

I own a fair amount of both silver and gold. The argument for silver is the utilitarian use for it particularly in solar panels and EVs.

As GM stated, both have been dogs. Gold should be through the roof with inflation, right? I wouldn't add any more unless I'm in trouble with my lady.

My cost basis for silver is around $7 an ounce so I won't be adding more. I bought it many years ago when I was fairly ignorant to investing and the days of $50 an ounce was sparking the gray matter.

FWIW

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like gold as a hedge against an economic disaster/dollar collapse nothing more. Silver meh. Premiums are through the roof and i think it’s seen as more of an industrial metal now. No interest.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Not sure what the catalyst is, have just seen the noise on social media seemingly on the increase in the last few weeks, which is what prompted me to ask here. I figured some of you guys might follow more closely than I do. Maybe all nothing, but one thing I found just doing a quick search:

Investment demand to lift India's silver imports to record high

India's silver imports are set to triple in 2022 from a year ago to record highs after a dip in prices to 2-year lows spurred investors to bet that the metal was primed for a rebound and could outperform gold in the coming years.

www.reuters.com

 

[tommyGunZ]

Yeah--- I think the "real" economy and small business is in huge trouble. For many years now--our government and politicians made a decision to sacrifice the working class in favor of the investing and large business class. They've kept working wages down while the cost of living continues to go up--and the fed running the printing presses day and night since the economic bubble through multiple phases of quantitative easing, keeping the dollar cheap through dropping interest rates are all taking us down a path to a point where the dollar is losing more and more credibility and value every day. For decades we were lucky that other countres respected the dollar enough to where we could just print some up and send it to them in exchange for goods and services. Now that they see that we arbitrarily print it when we want to no end--it only takes one country to question if the US dollar really should be the reserve currency for the world. That's why I've really been on the gold and silver train for a while. I probably have the greatest percentage of my investments portfolio's value in gold and silver versus anybody else in the forum--but by no means would I consider myself "big time". Lol. 25-30% of the value of my portfolio is probably the equivalent of 2% of the portofolio values of a lot of the members here. Lol

You’re right about the dollar losing credibility and reserve status. What I didn’t anticipate was that the US govt would catalyze the process so dramatically.

First they print 40% of the total money supply in just the past few years for “”“covid relief”””, do nothing about the debt, then basically force Russia and other countries to abandon the dollar. Our genius rulers didn’t think there was enough economic pain in the world, so they tried to sanction the #### out of Russia over Ukraine. What they did in reality was to sanction ourselves and the West at large out of eastern markets and away from dollar dominance.

Russia is forcing countries now to pay for resources like LNG/wheat in rubles. They had a plan in place for when Washington would decide to financially cripple them, and now the whole world sees what a liability and freakshow the United States is. Saudis and China are talking about pricing oil in yuan over USD, Russia has reportedly talked about linking the ruble to a flat gold price. China’s version of the SWIFT financial system seems to be picking up ground too, after the West’s work jerking ‘unfriendly countries’ around. The BRICS countries appear to be orchestrating a new financial order in real time. Russia and China have been stockpiling gold for a long time now btw. We’re witnessing a global realignment unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

That’s the thing about being a country that produces nothing except war, defaults on its debts, consumes everything, and lives in total avarice- eventually the world gets tired of dealing with it. I think you and I knew this was coming. I just didn’t think it would happen so fast.

The US doesn’t produce anything but war? That’s demonstrably false. Why would you make that claim Ron?

 

[General Malaise]

Hope you held off on buying gold and silver. Just getting crushed.

 

[ren hoek]

The US doesn’t produce anything but war? That’s demonstrably false. Why would you make that claim Ron?

It's our biggest expenditure. And I would hazard a guess it's the most profitable line of manufacturing that actually happens in the U.S.

Unless you're being pedantic about it not being literally 100% true that war is the only thing we produce.

Either way. This economy, our standard of living, is propped up by empire and dollar hegemony. This framework is crumbling away and the whole world knows it.

 

[fruity pebbles]

The US doesn’t produce anything but war? That’s demonstrably false. Why would you make that claim Ron?

It's our biggest expenditure. And I would hazard a guess it's the most profitable line of manufacturing that actually happens in the U.S.

Unless you're being pedantic about it not being literally 100% true that war is the only thing we produce.

Either way. This economy, our standard of living, is propped up by empire and dollar hegemony. This framework is crumbling away and the whole world knows it.

Thing is, at least right now, there's no real alternative to the dollar.

 

[ren hoek]

The US doesn’t produce anything but war? That’s demonstrably false. Why would you make that claim Ron?

It's our biggest expenditure. And I would hazard a guess it's the most profitable line of manufacturing that actually happens in the U.S.

Unless you're being pedantic about it not being literally 100% true that war is the only thing we produce.

Either way. This economy, our standard of living, is propped up by empire and dollar hegemony. This framework is crumbling away and the whole world knows it.

Thing is, at least right now, there's no real alternative to the dollar.

Maybe not right this second. But it's already happening. Saudi is considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales. Russia has basically abandoned the dollar, and has moved to accept rubles for its energy production. I believe it was reported that the BRICS countries were working on SWIFT-like cross border payment mechanisms that would operate independently of the Western banking system.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

www.wsj.com

https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/can-brics-dedollarize-the-global-financial-system/0AEF98D2F232072409E9556620AE09B0

That's the thing about the war posturing with Russia and China. These countries, in addition to many others, have assessed correctly that the US is a source of instability to world peace- and that they can no longer live at the mercy of the western empire's financial system. It is unsustainable. We thought we were isolating them, but we were really only isolating ourselves.

These countries have also been stockpiling gold reserves. I think people acting like gold is useless shiny rocks will look like clown shoes once these developments start hitting critical mass. To me it's a matter of when, not if.