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Gonzo in dynasty (1 Viewer)

FUBAR

Footballguy
What has been the value of Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues? He is probably the prime example of short term value with no long term value, but he is easily a top 4 TE for 2013.

Gotta figure he's worth a 2nd round pick at worst.

 

donkshow

Footballguy
Personally, I'd go down with the ship. You'll never get the value in a trade that he will bring you this season in your line-up.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Personally, I'd go down with the ship. You'll never get the value in a trade that he will bring you this season in your line-up.
Yeah, he's probably worth an early/mid-2nd in terms of expected VBD, but you won't get that back unless a contending team needs a title push in the later part of the season (which is probably the best time to try and move him IMO).

If you're a contending team you pretty much just have to ride him into the sunset.

 

Donsmith753

Footballguy
I think Gonzo disappoints a bit this year for some reason. I don't see him as the definite TE4 and wouldn't be surprised to see him closer to 10 than 4 in terms of total points.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
If I had a hazier short term TE situation I'd go get him, this year > future years and most owners are guilty of looking too far in the future. Just need to ensure a good young guy or two as well. With Witten in one and Vernon in the other I'm going to hope the Tony owner doesn't take me down this year.

 

buck naked

Footballguy
I think Gonzo disappoints a bit this year for some reason. I don't see him as the definite TE4 and wouldn't be surprised to see him closer to 10 than 4 in terms of total points.
I've been saying the same thing for about 5 years, and every year I'm wrong. The manner in which Atlanta uses him suggests not alot will change either.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I'm not at all convinced that Gonzo's strong production is a fait accompli. Yes, he was great last year, but Father Time remains undefeated. I think Gonzo is a riskier bet than most are assuming.

If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.

 
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MAC_32

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
Say you're right. Say Finley gives one good season in 2013 and then falls completely off the cliff. How is this any different than the expectations for Tony Gonzalez? If I can get Finley or Gonzalez for the same price, and both have similar outlooks for 2013, while Finley has a poor outlook for 2014+ and Gonzo has absolutely no outlook at all for 2014+, doesn't that still make Finley the better buy?

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
Say you're right. Say Finley gives one good season in 2013 and then falls completely off the cliff. How is this any different than the expectations for Tony Gonzalez? If I can get Finley or Gonzalez for the same price, and both have similar outlooks for 2013, while Finley has a poor outlook for 2014+ and Gonzo has absolutely no outlook at all for 2014+, doesn't that still make Finley the better buy?
If they're the same price, sure. But Finley's significantly more expensive in my experience -- everyone knows that Gonzo is a one year rental. Finley's similar to Vernon Davis in that people are valuing them both way higher than their production to date would seem to dictate -- but Davis actually is the freak physical specimen that Finley is perceived to be. I think the "unsexy" type TEs (Olsen, Pitta types) are the guys to buy -- they'll likely provide very similar production without having to pay for the phantom upside.
 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.
Well, one of the owners I tried to get him from has two good TEs. One is Rudolph and I cant remember the other offhand, maybe Vernon Davis I think. And he still isn't selling.

In theory thats what SHOULD happen, but it isnt in my leagues.

 

Ernol

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
I think your right on most of this, but youve mentioned offering Stevie Johnson on a few occasions in a way where you obviously think he has significant value, this time as support for how valued or overvalued Gonzo may be. I think you view Stevie as being much more valuable than he really is. I'd much rather have a 1 year Tony G. straight up for Stevie (especially if you are talking 1.5 PPR TE) and you wanted a 2nd thrown in.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.
Well, one of the owners I tried to get him from has two good TEs. One is Rudolph and I cant remember the other offhand, maybe Vernon Davis I think. And he still isn't selling.

In theory thats what SHOULD happen, but it isnt in my leagues.
That owner is being illogical. The likelihood that the difference between Gonz and Davis/Rudolph means championship or no championship is incredibly small. Move Gonz for upgrades elsewhere, ride the youth wave. Some owners just aren't smart, can't do anything about that.

Kinda not really related, there are some pissed off owners in one of my leagues because I got Roethisburger for a couple of fliers - Dwayne Harris and AJ Jenkins. Problem is the Roethlisberger owner also has Peyton (the now) and Tannehill (the future). His WR depth has been massacred over the last two years. I have absolutely no one behind RG3 and am very deep at WR - Nicks, Fitz, Wayne, Gordon, V Brown, couple of more fliers. No one else in the league is offering much of anything for Roethlisberger because they already have backups. I was his only market. Yeah, I think I got a very good deal, but it isn't like he got a bad one - it's the only deal he could get for a player he doesn't need.

Sounds like your case with Gonz is similar. That owner has a pigeon holed value, instead of getting something now he will get nothing later for a marginal if any difference. Makes no sense.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I've got Gonzo with Pitta and Jordan Reed behind him. Hoping to ride him into the sunset and start him 15 times this year. Unless I had Gronk, Graham, Hernandez or Witten, I'd hold him.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
He's worth an early second. A buy if you're competing, a sell if you're rebuilding.
I wouldn't give an early second for him if I was in the window. Heck I should offer it as I only have Gronkowski right now. But no way would I pay a Justin Hunter or Robert Woods for him at this point.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
He's worth an early second. A buy if you're competing, a sell if you're rebuilding.
I wouldn't give an early second for him if I was in the window. Heck I should offer it as I only have Gronkowski right now. But no way would I pay a Justin Hunter or Robert Woods for him at this point.
You're the Gronk owner, you should not pitch for Gonz right now. You should push for a Cook type though. If your plan B does not come to fruition and Gronk has continued issues into the season, Gonz becomes an interesting trade target at that time - not now.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
He's worth an early second. A buy if you're competing, a sell if you're rebuilding.
I wouldn't give an early second for him if I was in the window. Heck I should offer it as I only have Gronkowski right now. But no way would I pay a Justin Hunter or Robert Woods for him at this point.
You're the Gronk owner, you should not pitch for Gonz right now. You should push for a Cook type though. If your plan B does not come to fruition and Gronk has continued issues into the season, Gonz becomes an interesting trade target at that time - not now.
It's a 10 team, start 2qb with 24 man rosters. I have Gronk, Eifert, Kelce, and Ertz. Only Eifert got drafted so I found room for Kelce and Ertz to corner the market a bit. May or may not work. What the heck though, its a strategy.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Are upside plays like Allen, Cameron, and Housler even rostered.
I'd have to look to be 100% sure about Cameron, but those three are rostered in every league I'm in. Those guys aren't even particularly marginal.

ETA: here are the rostered TEs from a league I picked at random...

Allen, Dwayne IND TEBallard, Jake NEP TE (Q)Bennett, Martellus CHI TECameron, Jordan CLE TE (P)Celek, Brent PHI TECook, Jared STL TECumberland, Jeff NYJ TEDaniels, Owen HOU TEDavis, Fred WAS TE (P)Davis, Vernon SFO TEEifert, Tyler CIN TE ®Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ®Finley, Jermichael GBP TEFleener, Coby IND TEGates, Antonio SDC TEGonzalez, Tony ATL TEGragg, Chris BUF TE ®Graham, Jimmy NOS TE (P)Green, Ladarius SDC TEGresham, Jermaine CIN TEGronkowski, Rob NEP TE (Q)Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE (Q)Housler, Robert ARI TEKelce, Travis KCC TE ®Keller, Dustin MIA TELewis, Marcedes JAC TEMcDonald, Vance SFO TE ®Miller, Heath PIT TE (Q)Myers, Brandon NYG TEOlsen, Greg CAR TEPettigrew, Brandon DET TEPitta, Dennis BAL TEReed, Jordan WAS TE ® (P)Rivera, Mychal OAK TE ®Rudolph, Kyle MIN TEThompson, Deonte BAL WRWillson, Luke SEA TE ®Witten, Jason DAL TE

 
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FUBAR

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd. I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders. I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year. Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close. he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread. As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.
Well, one of the owners I tried to get him from has two good TEs. One is Rudolph and I cant remember the other offhand, maybe Vernon Davis I think. And he still isn't selling. In theory thats what SHOULD happen, but it isnt in my leagues.
That owner is being illogical. The likelihood that the difference between Gonz and Davis/Rudolph means championship or no championship is incredibly small. Move Gonz for upgrades elsewhere, ride the youth wave. Some owners just aren't smart, can't do anything about that. Kinda not really related, there are some pissed off owners in one of my leagues because I got Roethisburger for a couple of fliers - Dwayne Harris and AJ Jenkins. Problem is the Roethlisberger owner also has Peyton (the now) and Tannehill (the future). His WR depth has been massacred over the last two years. I have absolutely no one behind RG3 and am very deep at WR - Nicks, Fitz, Wayne, Gordon, V Brown, couple of more fliers. No one else in the league is offering much of anything for Roethlisberger because they already have backups. I was his only market. Yeah, I think I got a very good deal, but it isn't like he got a bad one - it's the only deal he could get for a player he doesn't need. Sounds like your case with Gonz is similar. That owner has a pigeon holed value, instead of getting something now he will get nothing later for a marginal if any difference. Makes no sense.
in most leagues, mid career QBs outside of the elite are not worth much.
 

Don Quixote

Footballguy
I just took over a dynasty team that is a rebuild project (team had one win all of last year). I put him on the table during the rookie draft, but got no interest. Offered him for a late first, but did not even get a counter.

I think I'll just hold onto him and hope I find a desperate owner during the season.

 

Rockchild

Footballguy
I traded for him during our rookie draft-traded the 2.11 for him even though my team is not a strong contender(probably an outside chance for a playoff spot if things go right) but I liked the value at the time. And it's the off season, once camps start firing up people will get the itch to trade and I might be able to flip him for something of value.

 

Ernol

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.
Well, one of the owners I tried to get him from has two good TEs. One is Rudolph and I cant remember the other offhand, maybe Vernon Davis I think. And he still isn't selling.

In theory thats what SHOULD happen, but it isnt in my leagues.
That owner is being illogical. The likelihood that the difference between Gonz and Davis/Rudolph means championship or no championship is incredibly small. Move Gonz for upgrades elsewhere, ride the youth wave. Some owners just aren't smart, can't do anything about that.

Kinda not really related, there are some pissed off owners in one of my leagues because I got Roethisburger for a couple of fliers - Dwayne Harris and AJ Jenkins. Problem is the Roethlisberger owner also has Peyton (the now) and Tannehill (the future). His WR depth has been massacred over the last two years. I have absolutely no one behind RG3 and am very deep at WR - Nicks, Fitz, Wayne, Gordon, V Brown, couple of more fliers. No one else in the league is offering much of anything for Roethlisberger because they already have backups. I was his only market. Yeah, I think I got a very good deal, but it isn't like he got a bad one - it's the only deal he could get for a player he doesn't need.

Sounds like your case with Gonz is similar. That owner has a pigeon holed value, instead of getting something now he will get nothing later for a marginal if any difference. Makes no sense.
I am not seeing anything about that owner's refusal to sell at that price inherently illogical. What if that owner believes Gonzo is worth more and could fetch more later in the summer or to a contender during the season? What if that owner thinks the value is in trading Vernon for a nicer piece? Lots of factors to consider which could make such a move (or non-move) logical.

 
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ghostguy123

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
If the Gonzo owner also has quality younger TE's he will be interested in selling, maybe not for a 2 but closer to that than a 1. if he has a hodgepodge of mediocrity he correctly prefers to hold unless someone blows him away with an offer, which won't happen right now, but could happen in-season. If his season is going down the tubes then he can feel more comfortable lowering the pricetag and taking the 2 from a contender as well.
Well, one of the owners I tried to get him from has two good TEs. One is Rudolph and I cant remember the other offhand, maybe Vernon Davis I think. And he still isn't selling.

In theory thats what SHOULD happen, but it isnt in my leagues.
That owner is being illogical. The likelihood that the difference between Gonz and Davis/Rudolph means championship or no championship is incredibly small. Move Gonz for upgrades elsewhere, ride the youth wave. Some owners just aren't smart, can't do anything about that.

Kinda not really related, there are some pissed off owners in one of my leagues because I got Roethisburger for a couple of fliers - Dwayne Harris and AJ Jenkins. Problem is the Roethlisberger owner also has Peyton (the now) and Tannehill (the future). His WR depth has been massacred over the last two years. I have absolutely no one behind RG3 and am very deep at WR - Nicks, Fitz, Wayne, Gordon, V Brown, couple of more fliers. No one else in the league is offering much of anything for Roethlisberger because they already have backups. I was his only market. Yeah, I think I got a very good deal, but it isn't like he got a bad one - it's the only deal he could get for a player he doesn't need.

Sounds like your case with Gonz is similar. That owner has a pigeon holed value, instead of getting something now he will get nothing later for a marginal if any difference. Makes no sense.
He may also just not want to make my team a lot stronger this year, who knows.

 

thriftyrocker

Footballguy
Are upside plays like Allen, Cameron, and Housler even rostered.
I'd have to look to be 100% sure about Cameron, but those three are rostered in every league I'm in. Those guys aren't even particularly marginal.

ETA: here are the rostered TEs from a league I picked at random...
Sorry I meant the 10x24 superflex directly above my post. I have a 10x23 and pre-rookie/FA-draft, all 3 of the ones listed are available as well as Cook and Myers.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
I think your right on most of this, but youve mentioned offering Stevie Johnson on a few occasions in a way where you obviously think he has significant value, this time as support for how valued or overvalued Gonzo may be. I think you view Stevie as being much more valuable than he really is. I'd much rather have a 1 year Tony G. straight up for Stevie (especially if you are talking 1.5 PPR TE) and you wanted a 2nd thrown in.
Why? I think everyone would agree Gonzo has a higher chance of scoring more than Johnson this year, but I would think top 20 a few years in a row and not even being all that old would count for something. He actually told me afterwards he didnt want to do Johnson for Gonzo straight up.

Also as for Stevie, I have seen a lot of deals on him this year for straight up draft picks, and never less than a 1st rounder or a 1st rounder and more.

I dont view Stevie as being some superstar at all, but in a vacuum I would guess the majority of people would take him over Gonzo.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
Say you're right. Say Finley gives one good season in 2013 and then falls completely off the cliff. How is this any different than the expectations for Tony Gonzalez? If I can get Finley or Gonzalez for the same price, and both have similar outlooks for 2013, while Finley has a poor outlook for 2014+ and Gonzo has absolutely no outlook at all for 2014+, doesn't that still make Finley the better buy?
If they're the same price, sure. But Finley's significantly more expensive in my experience -- everyone knows that Gonzo is a one year rental. Finley's similar to Vernon Davis in that people are valuing them both way higher than their production to date would seem to dictate -- but Davis actually is the freak physical specimen that Finley is perceived to be. I think the "unsexy" type TEs (Olsen, Pitta types) are the guys to buy -- they'll likely provide very similar production without having to pay for the phantom upside.
Your experience is different than mine. In my experience, guys like Orton and Pitta are commanding a premium, while Finley has gone from sexy pick to afterthought in the course of a single season.

Obviously startups are not existing leagues, and mocks are not reality, but in the May DLF mocks, Gonzo has an ADP of TE8, while Finley has an ADP of TE14, (Pitta is TE7 and Olsen is TE11). In April, Gonzo was TE9 and Finley was TE14 again. Then, in March, Finley was TE8 and Gonzo was TE15. It's really just going to depend on your league and whoever happens to own Finley and Gonzo.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
Say you're right. Say Finley gives one good season in 2013 and then falls completely off the cliff. How is this any different than the expectations for Tony Gonzalez? If I can get Finley or Gonzalez for the same price, and both have similar outlooks for 2013, while Finley has a poor outlook for 2014+ and Gonzo has absolutely no outlook at all for 2014+, doesn't that still make Finley the better buy?
If they're the same price, sure. But Finley's significantly more expensive in my experience -- everyone knows that Gonzo is a one year rental. Finley's similar to Vernon Davis in that people are valuing them both way higher than their production to date would seem to dictate -- but Davis actually is the freak physical specimen that Finley is perceived to be. I think the "unsexy" type TEs (Olsen, Pitta types) are the guys to buy -- they'll likely provide very similar production without having to pay for the phantom upside.
Your experience is different than mine. In my experience, guys like Orton and Pitta are commanding a premium, while Finley has gone from sexy pick to afterthought in the course of a single season.

Obviously startups are not existing leagues, and mocks are not reality, but in the May DLF mocks, Gonzo has an ADP of TE8, while Finley has an ADP of TE14, (Pitta is TE7 and Olsen is TE11). In April, Gonzo was TE9 and Finley was TE14 again. Then, in March, Finley was TE8 and Gonzo was TE15. It's really just going to depend on your league and whoever happens to own Finley and Gonzo.
Yep. Some people are not willing to blow their chance at a title this year for a 2nd round pick. You not only weaken your team trading Gonzo, but you strengthen someone else.

However come midseason, I think Gonzo will be the most traded player in fantasy, and the deals will be all over the place. He will go for a future 3rd in one league, and a future 1st in another. Supply/demand is gonna end up playing a huge part. That and how the first half of the season goes for his stats. Let's assume he is on pace to be maybe the 4th-5th scoring TE. I can see someone paying a 2014 1st. I can also see the projected playoff teams already all being strong at TE and not really much of a trade market, where he goes for a 3rd or projected late 2014 2nd.

 

cstu

Footballguy
If I was going to trade for a TE, I'd target Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley, first. I think either would often be available as cheaply as Gonzales, and I don't think their short-term outlook is much worse than Gonzo's. Otherwise, I might try to buy Antonio Gates for significantly less than Gonzo. If both of those failed and I really needed a TE, I'd send my 2nd round pick for him if I had a strong contender, under the assumption that worst case scenario is it's a late 2nd, anyway.
Gotta disagree on Finley as a dynasty buy. I think he's a fine target in redraft, but that's based on his situation. IMO Finley's talent level is wildly over-rated by the fantasy community -- the perception that he's some type of physical freak is pretty strongly entrenched despite not having much basis in reality. He has value only because he plays in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he's in the final year of his contract. Considering how much he's likely to get on the open market (he's currently making way more than he's worth) I think it's pretty likely he's playing for a different team in 2014 -- which would kill his value.Re: Gonzo, I've also tried to get him in one league where I'm strong everywhere but TE. His owner said he'd only move him as part of a package for one of my core players. Anyone with even a small chance at the playoffs this year is probably holding tight. For now...
Say you're right. Say Finley gives one good season in 2013 and then falls completely off the cliff. How is this any different than the expectations for Tony Gonzalez? If I can get Finley or Gonzalez for the same price, and both have similar outlooks for 2013, while Finley has a poor outlook for 2014+ and Gonzo has absolutely no outlook at all for 2014+, doesn't that still make Finley the better buy?
If they're the same price, sure. But Finley's significantly more expensive in my experience -- everyone knows that Gonzo is a one year rental. Finley's similar to Vernon Davis in that people are valuing them both way higher than their production to date would seem to dictate -- but Davis actually is the freak physical specimen that Finley is perceived to be. I think the "unsexy" type TEs (Olsen, Pitta types) are the guys to buy -- they'll likely provide very similar production without having to pay for the phantom upside.
Your experience is different than mine. In my experience, guys like Orton and Pitta are commanding a premium, while Finley has gone from sexy pick to afterthought in the course of a single season.

Obviously startups are not existing leagues, and mocks are not reality, but in the May DLF mocks, Gonzo has an ADP of TE8, while Finley has an ADP of TE14, (Pitta is TE7 and Olsen is TE11). In April, Gonzo was TE9 and Finley was TE14 again. Then, in March, Finley was TE8 and Gonzo was TE15. It's really just going to depend on your league and whoever happens to own Finley and Gonzo.
Finley seems like a huge value this offseason. He's still a risk but if I could trade Gonzo for Finley I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

Ernol

Footballguy
Well, if you own him you want a good 1st for him. If you don't, you are willing to maybe give a mid 2nd or future 2nd.

I don't think we are gonna see many Gonzo deals until during the season when the teams who are struggling happen to own Gonzo and deal him to contenders.

I have tried to deal for Gonzo in 4 leagues with not even the slightest bit of luck. I even offered Steve Johnson for Gonzo and a 2014 2nd and was turned down. I thought I was crazy for offering it, and he was crazy for rejecting it. I am glad he rejected it though with Blackmon and Gordon being benched for the start of the year.

Last night in a different league I asked a guy and he said an early 2nd wasn't close.

he is more valuable to the teams that own him, so like I said, we prolly wont see many gonzo deals. I havent seen many (if any???) on the trade thread.

As far as stats go though, I expect Gonzo to have a nice year. Maybe not as good as last year, but not too far off.
I think your right on most of this, but youve mentioned offering Stevie Johnson on a few occasions in a way where you obviously think he has significant value, this time as support for how valued or overvalued Gonzo may be. I think you view Stevie as being much more valuable than he really is. I'd much rather have a 1 year Tony G. straight up for Stevie (especially if you are talking 1.5 PPR TE) and you wanted a 2nd thrown in.
Why? I think everyone would agree Gonzo has a higher chance of scoring more than Johnson this year, but I would think top 20 a few years in a row and not even being all that old would count for something. He actually told me afterwards he didnt want to do Johnson for Gonzo straight up.

Also as for Stevie, I have seen a lot of deals on him this year for straight up draft picks, and never less than a 1st rounder or a 1st rounder and more.

I dont view Stevie as being some superstar at all, but in a vacuum I would guess the majority of people would take him over Gonzo.
Perhaps, but Stevie Johnson in no way strikes me as the kind of guy that would make anyone think another owner is crazy for rejecting a trade.

As I mentioned, I agree with that other owner and would rather have Gonzo over Stevie straight up.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
240 roster spots. Start 2 QB league. I hold three TE's right now (Gronkowski, Eifert, and Kelce). 20 TEs are rostered.

Top TE free agents right now include Heath Miller, Martellus Bennett, Dustin Keller, Dwayne Allen, Fred Davis, Zac Ertz, Housler, and Cameron.

 

Deadman31

Footballguy
I had Tony G, in my 16 team dynasty league the last couple of years. He was an RFA this offseason(it would take a first round pick in rookie draft to sign him) I wasnt expecting anyone to give up a 1st rd and was just going to give him a 1 year deal and ride him into the sunset, but somebody bid on him and I let him go for the pick which I packaged with my other first rd(12 and 16 respectively) to move up to #7 and grab Corderelle Patterson when he started falling during the draft(was really expecting him to go top 3 or 5 but for some reason there was a run of IDP at the top of the draft)

I already had Gronkowski,, Jordan Cameron and signed Delanie Walker.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
240 roster spots. Start 2 QB league. I hold three TE's right now (Gronkowski, Eifert, and Kelce). 20 TEs are rostered.

Top TE free agents right now include Heath Miller, Martellus Bennett, Dustin Keller, Dwayne Allen, Fred Davis, Zac Ertz, Housler, and Cameron.
In a league where you can pick up Allen, I would take Gonzo and not even think about next year.

 

pghrob

Hail to the Chief
Personally, I'd go down with the ship. You'll never get the value in a trade that he will bring you this season in your line-up.
This.

Who would have thought he could be this good that long a time. I traded him away during a rookie draft 2 or 3 years ago thinking he was at the end of the road for a 3rd round rookie pick that I used either on Taiwan Jones or Dion Lewis. The guy with Gonzalez won that trade by a wide wide margin.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I acquired Gonzo for Jonathan Stewart last year after he announced he was finished after the year. I thought 8 weeks of Gonzo is worth more than 3 more years of the Stewart fiasco.

 

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