The_Man
Footballguy
Here was the interesting part to me:
The first stat we looked at: yards per pass attempt, or YPA, which measures both accuracy and the ability to go deep. When we looked at the senior-season YPAs for these players, we saw that there was little to distinguish future stars from NFL also-rans. Mr. Leaf, for example, had better numbers than Mr. Manning (9.68 YPA vs. 8.01), and the best single-season YPA (10.14) belonged to Mr. Smith from Oregon.
BEWARE THE BLIP
While a stellar senior year is a big bonus for a college QB's agent, it isn't necessarily a good omen for the team that drafts him. Of the QBs since 1998 who have seen their yards-per-attempt stats increase by 1.6 yards or more from their underclass years to their final season, three have been huge busts and none have developed into stars.
But when we looked at the numbers a bit more deeply, an interesting thing happened. It turns out that many of the highly touted quarterbacks that failed to make it in the pros had made a great leap forward in YPA during their senior seasons. Those performances may have inflated their value. To quantify this leap, we calculated Senior Blip -- a QB's final-season YPA minus his underclass YPA. This turned out to be a very reliable yardstick.
Of the five QBs whose yards per attempt improved by 1.6 or more in their senior year, three turned out to be duds in the pros (Mr. Leaf, Mr. Smith and Cade McNown), one has been a modest success (Brian Griese) and one can be graded as incomplete at best (Philip Rivers).
Contrast these with Mr. Manning's college numbers. His Senior Blip? Just 0.24. He threw for almost eight yards a pop as a freshman -- a trait he shared with such stars-to-be as Ben Roethlisberger (1.22 Senior Blip) and Donovan McNabb (-.59 SB).
The other number that tracked well with pro success was a college QB's touchdown-to-interception ratio. Of the 11 quarterbacks whose TD/Int ratio was 3.2 or better in their senior seasons, seven have become stars (Peyton Manning, Mr. McNabb and Mr. Roethlisberger, plus Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Daunte Culpepper and Chad Pennington.) Note that this stat singles out two Super Bowl-winning QBs who didn't go as early as expected on Draft Day: Mr. Brady, a sixth-round pick in 2000 (3.3), and Mr. Roethlisberger (3.7), the third QB taken in 2004's first round.
How do this year's QB hopefuls size up? Mr. Leinart has an impeccable statistical pedigree. His Senior Blip is a low 0.36, and even more telling, both his senior year (8.82) and underclass (8.46) YPA numbers are lofty. And his stellar 3.86 TD/Int ratio for last season was actually the lowest of his college career.
The numbers aren't so encouraging for Mr. Young. GMs should worry less about his unusual throwing motion and more about his hefty Senior Blip of 1.69. And his 2.6 TD/Int ratio is worse than that of Kyle Boller, who has struggled with the Baltimore Ravens.
Mr. Cutler is a statistical mixed bag. His senior-year YPA numbers (6.65) were below his underclass stats (7.21). That's actually not a bad omen -- Mr. McNabb and Marc Bulger of St. Louis are among the star QBs who backslid a little during their senior years. But his 2.3 TD/Int. ratio isn't too encouraging.
So while there's little consensus about these three QBs, GMs with a mind toward self-preservation should note that our two indexes suggest that Mr. Leinart is tomorrow afternoon's smart pick.
The first stat we looked at: yards per pass attempt, or YPA, which measures both accuracy and the ability to go deep. When we looked at the senior-season YPAs for these players, we saw that there was little to distinguish future stars from NFL also-rans. Mr. Leaf, for example, had better numbers than Mr. Manning (9.68 YPA vs. 8.01), and the best single-season YPA (10.14) belonged to Mr. Smith from Oregon.
BEWARE THE BLIP
While a stellar senior year is a big bonus for a college QB's agent, it isn't necessarily a good omen for the team that drafts him. Of the QBs since 1998 who have seen their yards-per-attempt stats increase by 1.6 yards or more from their underclass years to their final season, three have been huge busts and none have developed into stars.
But when we looked at the numbers a bit more deeply, an interesting thing happened. It turns out that many of the highly touted quarterbacks that failed to make it in the pros had made a great leap forward in YPA during their senior seasons. Those performances may have inflated their value. To quantify this leap, we calculated Senior Blip -- a QB's final-season YPA minus his underclass YPA. This turned out to be a very reliable yardstick.
Of the five QBs whose yards per attempt improved by 1.6 or more in their senior year, three turned out to be duds in the pros (Mr. Leaf, Mr. Smith and Cade McNown), one has been a modest success (Brian Griese) and one can be graded as incomplete at best (Philip Rivers).
Contrast these with Mr. Manning's college numbers. His Senior Blip? Just 0.24. He threw for almost eight yards a pop as a freshman -- a trait he shared with such stars-to-be as Ben Roethlisberger (1.22 Senior Blip) and Donovan McNabb (-.59 SB).
The other number that tracked well with pro success was a college QB's touchdown-to-interception ratio. Of the 11 quarterbacks whose TD/Int ratio was 3.2 or better in their senior seasons, seven have become stars (Peyton Manning, Mr. McNabb and Mr. Roethlisberger, plus Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Daunte Culpepper and Chad Pennington.) Note that this stat singles out two Super Bowl-winning QBs who didn't go as early as expected on Draft Day: Mr. Brady, a sixth-round pick in 2000 (3.3), and Mr. Roethlisberger (3.7), the third QB taken in 2004's first round.
How do this year's QB hopefuls size up? Mr. Leinart has an impeccable statistical pedigree. His Senior Blip is a low 0.36, and even more telling, both his senior year (8.82) and underclass (8.46) YPA numbers are lofty. And his stellar 3.86 TD/Int ratio for last season was actually the lowest of his college career.
The numbers aren't so encouraging for Mr. Young. GMs should worry less about his unusual throwing motion and more about his hefty Senior Blip of 1.69. And his 2.6 TD/Int ratio is worse than that of Kyle Boller, who has struggled with the Baltimore Ravens.
Mr. Cutler is a statistical mixed bag. His senior-year YPA numbers (6.65) were below his underclass stats (7.21). That's actually not a bad omen -- Mr. McNabb and Marc Bulger of St. Louis are among the star QBs who backslid a little during their senior years. But his 2.3 TD/Int. ratio isn't too encouraging.
So while there's little consensus about these three QBs, GMs with a mind toward self-preservation should note that our two indexes suggest that Mr. Leinart is tomorrow afternoon's smart pick.
