Gore vs Addai vs SA (1 Viewer)

[Peak]

I've heard plenty of good things about Gore and Addai surfing through the Shark Pool. But what about Alexander? I've seen some take him as early as 1.03 and others grabbing him at 1.08. There seem to be some concern as to each RB's situation.

Gore - How will his hand affect him? Will he be able to replicate and/or improve his numbers from last year?

Addai - Can he carry the full load? Will the wide-spread Colts offense allow him to improve upon numbers from last year?

Alexander - Is he getting too old? Will his injury last year nag him this year?

Who is the consensus #4 pick in a redraft league? Assume LT, SJax, and LJ go first. Who should be the next big pick? All three seem to have what it takes, but all three seem to have concerns. Who is legit and who isn't?

 

[derek19]

There are soo many threads on this. Try searching..

 

[thegenerel]

Last night, I took Addai 1.4, Alexander went 1.6 and Gore 1.7

FWP went 1.5 - most of us are steeler fans.

 

[Joe T]

There are soo many threads on this. Try searching..

maybe he wanted his own discussion on this...

 

[Joe T]

I took Bush at 1.04 over the weekend.

 

[softball]

Gore, the only Top RB in 2006 that DIDN'T score 10+ TDs, still room for growth...

 

[Keys Myaths]

Gore, the only Top RB in 2006 that DIDN'T score 10+ TDs, still room for growth...

, and a very underrated posting.I've come to believe over time that touchdowns are more of a random thing (among the non-uber elite backs) than anything else. I like a guy who gets goalline carries, but for some reason or another didn't get into the end zone much the previous year. They're always underrated, and seem to go back to the mean.When that player has Frank Gore's talents, with SF's improving team and defense, I really stand up and listen.

 

[cowpie]

There are soo many threads on this. Try searching..

maybe he wanted his own discussion on this...

there is no concensus #4 or #5. there is a big group of players that are all about the same. that is why you are seeing the differences in the picksIn my oppinion,

gore - if healthy, gore will be the best- but if you want to not flip a coin on his health, then move on. personally i would hate to lose my #1.

alexander - same here. too old and he may be good, but he lied about his foot last year and how long will it hold up this year?

parker - he has done it before. he was # 5 last year. i think he is pretty solid. no arguements from me onthis one. the only thing i don't like is he seems to be hit or miss 200 yards or 30, 3 tds or 0.

aadai - yeah, no proof he can handle the full job, but they still have a good line, and one of the best offenses in the league.

personally, i like aadai. rhoades was good here when james went down, when he left and no rb has done bad here in a while.

may not put up 15 td with manning harrison and wayne on the team, but will be a good all around player.

westbrook - this guy could be a top 2 this year.... better offense than gore is in, is the key RB and is awsome when he plays. WAS #6 RB LAST YEAR and missed a game. he was only 10 points behind parker and 15 behind gore last year, but only played 15 games while they played 16. again, the health issue here.

if you are looking to knock the ball out of the park, i say go westbrook or gore.

you are looking for the safe play i say parker or aadai (no rb does bad in indy but not alot of upside)

if you are looking for an old player to come back to life on a team that is falling apart and getting old, the take alexander.

hope this helps. lemme know

 

[Mystery Achiever]

cowpie - nice assessment. i had middle round picks this year, so spent a lot of time on this group. ended up doing the predictable gore at #4, parker at #6.

 

[The Jerk]

It's hard to have this discussion without also adding Willie Parker into the mix.

As you said, there are concerns with all of these players, and the rankings will vary based upon an individual's response to injury history, etc.

General statements:

Gore has a long medical sheet including two ACL repairs and two shoulder surgeries and will miss the entire preseason with a broken hand.

Addai also has at least one ACL surgery in his past and has not been a workhorse since presumably in high school.

Alexander broke his foot last year and claimed to still have issues with it at minicamp.

Parker had swelling in his knee but the biggest concerns for him are a mediocre offensive line and coaching philosophy unknowns.

San Francisco may actually have the best OL by the end of the season. Seattle and Pittsburgh have noticeably weaker OL's than they did in 2005 when they met in SB XL. Indy lost Tarik Glenn and was horrible last year in short yardage anyway.

In overall offensive prowess, I would rank them Indy, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Francisco.

In terms of strength of schedule for RBs, Seattle is the best and Indy is the worst.

In terms of Week 14-16 strength of schedule, Indy is the best although Week 14 is bad.

To me, there is no clear cut winner. Individual scoring systems will likely tilt the ranking more than any of the above.

If it's PPR, Alexander drops to the bottom of the pack.

If it's TD heavy, Gore drops to the bottom of the pack.

My personal preference is to avoid Gore as I think his 2006 health was an anomaly. Of course I could be wrong, and every RB can get hurt, but if I'm drafting 4th, I want to avoid a clear history of injury. While Parker is hte healthiest, I am very concerned with the Steelers offense and especially the OL. Which leads me to Addai, who has never been "the man" and the Colts could be more pass heavy this year, so I guess it's Alexander. However, Alexander is recovering from injury, 30 years old, and with a much weaker OL. And around and around and around I go.

 

[Otis]

To me, it's Gore, and it's not a question.

 

[agent 86]

Gore, the only Top RB in 2006 that DIDN'T score 10+ TDs, still room for growth...

Six of his nine TD's last year came in the 2nd half. He fumbled in his 1st four games and only once after that which gave the coaches more confidence in him at the GL in the 2nd half. It still remains to be seen whether his hand will hurt his production this year, and I'm not sure he could be a 15-18 TD guy, but 12 TD's seems reasonable.

 

[Resident A]

I have #4 in my draft in a few days.

Until a few days ago, I was dead-set on Gore. Now, I'm praying LJ makes it to me. I'll probably change my mind again, but at least I'll have either LJ or Gore. That's a good feeling.

If LJ is gone, Gore is the top option w/o question. I'm not even considering Addai or SA. FWP still has an outside shot for me though.

 

[Diabolic]

To me, it's Gore, and it's not a question.

And to you, I say... I agree. 9.1 YPC at Miami. 5.4 YPC in San Fran for 2006 (higher than everyone, including Tomlinson). On 312 rushing attempts, he gained 1695 yards. Compare that to 346 / 1528 for S.J. and 416 / 1789 for L.J.! Notice that Gore came up only 94 yards short of matching L.J. on significantly fewer carries! The broken hand is not going to be any significant factor. The O-Line is the best it has looked in at least 7 years. Frank Gore is the #2 RB this year.

 

[The Jerk]

The broken hand is not going to be any significant factor. The O-Line is the best it has looked in at least 7 years. Frank Gore is the #2 RB this year.

I agree on the OL. My only concern with him is injury, or I would place him in the top 4 without question.Why do you have no injury concerns (and not just the hand). I have no problem acknowledging that anyone can get hurt, and you have to assume some risk with any pick in the draft, but Gore has a serious injury history. So while anyone can get hurt, someone who has already been hurt often in the past is to me a little more likely to get hurt again in the future. His style likely contributes to the injury frequency.Convince me there is nothing -- or at least very little -- to worry about here.

 

[notapplicable]

Take Gore and love it.

 

[Diabolic]

The broken hand is not going to be any significant factor. The O-Line is the best it has looked in at least 7 years. Frank Gore is the #2 RB this year.

I agree on the OL. My only concern with him is injury, or I would place him in the top 4 without question.Why do you have no injury concerns (and not just the hand). I have no problem acknowledging that anyone can get hurt, and you have to assume some risk with any pick in the draft, but Gore has a serious injury history. So while anyone can get hurt, someone who has already been hurt often in the past is to me a little more likely to get hurt again in the future. His style likely contributes to the injury frequency.Convince me there is nothing -- or at least very little -- to worry about here.

I'm not sure that you can point to any running back except LT and say that there is no real injury history. Granted, Gore's shoulder injuries in particular lend to the possibility that his running style makes him injury prone. He runs extremely hard and as a result, he tends to take extremely hard hits. If I had to rank someone above Gore in the #2 slot, it would be L.J. I would say that L.J. has some of the evasiveness of L.T., leading to less probability of injury, with the added benefit of a lighter workload during high-school and college. As an interesting aside, I think Gore goes from 44% of the overall offensive plays in 2006 to about 49% this year, due to a change in overall scheme. I think L.J. sees a similar increase, due to the fact that the coaches intend to run him until he drops, thanks to his holdout. Both players therefore are at increased risk of injury. Given that, I have to ask myself which schedule is easier and which O-line is better. The answers - in my humble opinion - lead me to choose Gore as the #2.

 

[The Jerk]

The broken hand is not going to be any significant factor. The O-Line is the best it has looked in at least 7 years. Frank Gore is the #2 RB this year.

I agree on the OL. My only concern with him is injury, or I would place him in the top 4 without question.Why do you have no injury concerns (and not just the hand). I have no problem acknowledging that anyone can get hurt, and you have to assume some risk with any pick in the draft, but Gore has a serious injury history. So while anyone can get hurt, someone who has already been hurt often in the past is to me a little more likely to get hurt again in the future. His style likely contributes to the injury frequency.Convince me there is nothing -- or at least very little -- to worry about here.

I'm not sure that you can point to any running back except LT and say that there is no real injury history. Granted, Gore's shoulder injuries in particular lend to the possibility that his running style makes him injury prone. He runs extremely hard and as a result, he tends to take extremely hard hits. If I had to rank someone above Gore in the #2 slot, it would be L.J. I would say that L.J. has some of the evasiveness of L.T., leading to less probability of injury, with the added benefit of a lighter workload during high-school and college. As an interesting aside, I think Gore goes from 44% of the overall offensive plays in 2006 to about 49% this year, due to a change in overall scheme. I think L.J. sees a similar increase, due to the fact that the coaches intend to run him until he drops, thanks to his holdout. Both players therefore are at increased risk of injury. Given that, I have to ask myself which schedule is easier and which O-line is better. The answers - in my humble opinion - lead me to choose Gore as the #2.

Actually, LT has some injury history, too, although it's of the diminished production kind -- not the on the sidelines kind. It's easy to say that everyone can get hurt, then just ignore it. Easy, but not wise. The only league I have a shot at Gore is TD heavy, which makes it even more of a tossup with guys like Parker, Addai and especially Alexander. It's just something I have to work for. When it comes time to make your pick, ultimately you have to go with your feeling, not some consensus or groupthink, especially when the consensus is not formed under the same scoring conditions and league tendencies.

 

[bocksheesh]

Gore is the choice.

He's the one top tier RB that has both shown he can produce AND still has significant upside.

He had 312 carries last year, I believe. I think that number can and should increase a bit. His avg. yds per carry of 5.4 will likely decline some, but I still think he maintains a high YPC.

But the biggest upside will be in his TDs. I don't think he'll get to a place where he'll rival LJ and LT for TDs. He's not likely to get in the high teens. But I do think if you factor in how many TDs Gore lost last year when fumbling near the goalline PLUS the increased redzone opportunities he's going to get, it's not difficult to imagine he gets something in the area of 13-15 TDs.

THAT is upside. Whereas LJ topped out last year, and likely has nothing but downside. LJ may match his totals from last season, but the odds are he won't. Gore may match his totals from last season, but the odds are that he will excede them.

Gore is your man.