The Milk Man
Footballguy
So I want to preface this by saying that this will be 2nd full year doing DFS (dabbled in it 2 years ago). I'm not a high volume player, my standard weekly $$ to wager will be between $100-200. I had some modest success last year winning in over $1k. I say all this because I think it helps bring context to my question by the type of player I am.
So my question is why does ownership percentage and using contrarian plays really matter? I can't fully wrap my head around why I would consider using what I view as a much less than optimal player, just because I think/know he will be lightly owned. The way I think about it is that sure I may go with 7/9 pretty chalky player (considering obvious value), but the likelihood that someone or many people have the same exact lineup as me is unlikely. And if they do, who cares? We can split the top two prizes. My chances of winning (at least in my opinion) goes down if I throw in some contrarian plays for the sake of trying to be so. My thought is that perhaps it increases the expected value of an entry. Is this the case?
If so, isn't this a much bigger concern to the volume players than someone like me who at least partially feels the effect of not cashing in a for example $10 buy in GPP?
This is something I've heard and heard over and over, and it just doesn't make much sense in my opinion. That's not to say I totally dispute it, I'd just like to get the full breakdown.
So my question is why does ownership percentage and using contrarian plays really matter? I can't fully wrap my head around why I would consider using what I view as a much less than optimal player, just because I think/know he will be lightly owned. The way I think about it is that sure I may go with 7/9 pretty chalky player (considering obvious value), but the likelihood that someone or many people have the same exact lineup as me is unlikely. And if they do, who cares? We can split the top two prizes. My chances of winning (at least in my opinion) goes down if I throw in some contrarian plays for the sake of trying to be so. My thought is that perhaps it increases the expected value of an entry. Is this the case?
If so, isn't this a much bigger concern to the volume players than someone like me who at least partially feels the effect of not cashing in a for example $10 buy in GPP?
This is something I've heard and heard over and over, and it just doesn't make much sense in my opinion. That's not to say I totally dispute it, I'd just like to get the full breakdown.