Grading the league's passing attacks (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Full post available here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8009

The short version:

1) Calculate each team's offensive ANY/A for each game. Compare each team's ANY/A to the league average -- as of now, 5.88 -- and give each team a grade for each going. If a team had 28 pass attempts and 2 sacks, and averaged 6.88 ANY/A for the game, they'd have 30 pass plays and averaged 1 more ANY/A than average. That's a grade of 30. If a team has 46 pass plays, 4 sacks, and a 3.88 ANY/A average, that's a grade of -100. Calculate an offensive grade for each team in each of the 176 games each season.

2) Give each defense the opposite score of the offense. If an offense scores +50, the defense scores -50. By grading each offense and each defense in each game, that gives us 704 game-scores for the season. All game scores, of course, sum to zero.

3) Then, we can use the Simple Rating System to adjust each game score for strength of schedule. So passing offenses are adjusted based on the strength of the defenses they faced, which are adjusted based on the strengths of the offenses they faced, which are adjusted based on the strengths of the defenses they faced, and so on. After several hundred iterations, the ratings converge, and we receive true ratings for each teams.

Those ratings are presented below, in terms of adjusted net yards each offense produces above average per game:

Tm Gms Off SOS AdjOffNWE 11 59 17 75SDG 11 83 -23 60DEN 11 56 2 59PHI 11 42 10 52GNB 11 45 1 46ATL 11 25 12 37HOU 11 25 7 32PIT 11 28 3 32DAL 11 22 7 28BAL 11 25 0 25TAM 11 16 6 22KAN 11 44 -22 22NOR 11 19 -5 14NYG 11 18 -6 11IND 11 26 -16 10MIA 11 -15 21 6NYJ 11 6 -7 - 1BUF 11 -21 14 - 7WAS 11 -22 12 -10TEN 11 -5 -10 -15DET 11 -29 8 -21CLE 11 -25 3 -21CIN 11 -34 11 -23JAX 11 -28 -1 -29SEA 11 -25 -6 -31MIN 11 -39 7 -31CHI 11 -31 -1 -32SFO 11 -22 -16 -39STL 11 -26 -16 -41OAK 11 -39 -9 -48ARI 11 -76 -13 -89CAR 11 -103 10 -94Essentially, this says the Patriots gain 75 adjusted yards per game relative to how an average offense would do against an average defense. The Panthers gain 94 fewer adjusted yards per game relative to an average offense against an average defense.What about defensive rankings?

Tm	 Gms   Def   SOS   AdjDef CHI	11	68	-5	63 TEN	11	39	18	56 GNB	11	57	-1	56 PIT	11	44	 6	49 SDG	11	54	-5	49 PHI	11	39	-5	35 IND	11	 9	26	34 BAL	11	22	 8	30 NYG	11	34	-6	27 NYJ	11	11	13	24 CIN	11	11	 8	19 CAR	11	22	-4	17 CLE	11	 5	 7	12 MIA	11	 8	 2	10 MIN	11	-7	 6   - 1 TAM	11	25   -27   - 2 NOR	11	18   -25   - 8 SFO	11	-3	-9   -11 KAN	11	-4	-9   -13 ATL	11   -13	-2   -15 WAS	11   -23	 7   -15 NWE	11   -19	 3   -16 DET	11   -24	 8   -16 STL	11	-3   -14   -16 OAK	11   -23	 0   -24 BUF	11   -36	 9   -27 ARI	11   -22	-6   -28 DAL	11   -44	-2   -46 JAX	11   -71	21   -50 SEA	11   -37   -16   -53 HOU	11   -70	 4   -66 DEN	11   -68	-8   -75

Full post here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8009

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I refuse to believe the Niners are better than the Rams on offense.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Football Outsiders does relatively similar rankings and came up with relatively similar results.

Just curious, have you ever compared your system to theirs? Do you know what the major differences are and have an opinion on which system might be best? TIA

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-rati...12-dvoa-ratings

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

TEAM TOTAL LAST WEIGHTED RANK OFFENSE OFF. DEFENSE DEF.

DVOA WEEK DVOA DVOA RANK DVOA RANK

1 PIT 33.40% 2 33.40% 1 13.50% 10 -16.70% 1

2 NE 30.60% 3 30.50% 2 45.20% 1 17.00% 27

3 PHI 27.30% 1 27.90% 3 28.00% 3 -0.20% 11

4 GB 22.40% 4 21.90% 5 15.70% 6 -10.10% 4

5 NYG 20.60% 6 21.70% 6 12.20% 13 -12.90% 3

6 SD 20.50% 8 22.20% 4 19.10% 4 -13.80% 2

7 BAL 19.70% 7 21.00% 7 12.20% 12 -4.10% 8

8 NYJ 19.00% 10 16.80% 8 7.20% 16 -6.80% 7

9 ATL 15.80% 9 15.40% 9 16.90% 5 3.50% 18

10 TEN 13.60% 5 12.70% 11 -2.60% 22 -9.90% 5

11 NO 11.60% 14 12.70% 10 11.60% 14 -1.50% 9

12 MIA 10.70% 12 12.20% 12 12.70% 11 1.30% 13

13 KC 8.40% 15 5.20% 16 15.60% 7 4.50% 20

14 IND 7.40% 11 6.70% 14 14.90% 9 2.60% 16

15 CLE 6.70% 13 8.30% 13 3.50% 18 0.00% 12

16 HOU 4.40% 17 5.80% 15 29.00% 2 24.20% 32

Edited to add - Sorry, not sure how to preserve the formating.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Week 12 DVOA Ratings 	TEAM 	TOTAL	LAST	WEIGHTED	RANK	OFFENSE	OFF.	DEFENSE	DEF.		DVOA 	WEEK 	DVOA 		DVOA 	RANK 	DVOA 	RANK 									1	PIT	33.40%	2	33.40%	1	13.50%	10	-16.70%	12	NE	30.60%	3	30.50%	2	45.20%	1	17.00%	273	PHI	27.30%	1	27.90%	3	28.00%	3	-0.20%	114	GB	22.40%	4	21.90%	5	15.70%	6	-10.10%	45	NYG	20.60%	6	21.70%	6	12.20%	13	-12.90%	36	SD	20.50%	8	22.20%	4	19.10%	4	-13.80%	27	BAL	19.70%	7	21.00%	7	12.20%	12	-4.10%	88	NYJ	19.00%	10	16.80%	8	7.20%	16	-6.80%	79	ATL	15.80%	9	15.40%	9	16.90%	5	3.50%	1810	TEN	13.60%	5	12.70%	11	-2.60%	22	-9.90%	511	NO	11.60%	14	12.70%	10	11.60%	14	-1.50%	912	MIA	10.70%	12	12.20%	12	12.70%	11	1.30%	1313	KC	8.40%	15	5.20%	16	15.60%	7	4.50%	2014	IND	7.40%	11	6.70%	14	14.90%	9	2.60%	1615	CLE	6.70%	13	8.30%	13	3.50%	18	0.00%	1216	HOU	4.40%	17	5.80%	15	29.00%	2	24.20%	32

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Week 12 DVOA Ratings 	TEAM 	TOTAL	LAST	WEIGHTED	RANK	OFFENSE	OFF.	DEFENSE	DEF.		DVOA 	WEEK 	DVOA 		DVOA 	RANK 	DVOA 	RANK 									1	PIT	33.40%	2	33.40%	1	13.50%	10	-16.70%	12	NE	30.60%	3	30.50%	2	45.20%	1	17.00%	273	PHI	27.30%	1	27.90%	3	28.00%	3	-0.20%	114	GB	22.40%	4	21.90%	5	15.70%	6	-10.10%	45	NYG	20.60%	6	21.70%	6	12.20%	13	-12.90%	36	SD	20.50%	8	22.20%	4	19.10%	4	-13.80%	27	BAL	19.70%	7	21.00%	7	12.20%	12	-4.10%	88	NYJ	19.00%	10	16.80%	8	7.20%	16	-6.80%	79	ATL	15.80%	9	15.40%	9	16.90%	5	3.50%	1810	TEN	13.60%	5	12.70%	11	-2.60%	22	-9.90%	511	NO	11.60%	14	12.70%	10	11.60%	14	-1.50%	912	MIA	10.70%	12	12.20%	12	12.70%	11	1.30%	1313	KC	8.40%	15	5.20%	16	15.60%	7	4.50%	2014	IND	7.40%	11	6.70%	14	14.90%	9	2.60%	1615	CLE	6.70%	13	8.30%	13	3.50%	18	0.00%	1216	HOU	4.40%	17	5.80%	15	29.00%	2	24.20%	32

Thanks

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

cbs has a similar thing too

yourleaguename.football.cbssports.com/stats/posvsdef/DST

Defense/STs Year To Date AverageRank	Team	Int	STY	SACK	TK	DFR	FF	DTD	PA	PaNetA	RuYdA	TYdA	FPTS32	DST vs Panthers	1.55	0.00	3.00	50.00	1.09	1.18	0.36	12.73	157.82	101.36	259.18	5.6231	DST vs Cardinals	1.27	0.00	3.27	46.00	1.18	1.45	0.27	17.64	191.09	78.00	269.09	3.1530	DST vs Bears	1.36	0.09	3.73	52.00	0.64	1.18	0.18	20.18	197.45	101.91	299.36	0.7729	DST vs Bengals	1.36	0.09	2.00	50.91	0.91	0.82	0.55	20.45	237.55	92.00	329.55	-0.4428	DST vs Vikings	1.55	0.00	2.00	49.64	0.73	0.45	0.45	17.18	213.18	120.18	333.36	-0.4527	DST vs Jaguars	1.45	0.00	2.55	55.91	0.91	1.18	0.18	21.82	193.09	141.82	334.91	-2.0826	DST vs Redskins	1.18	0.00	2.91	49.09	0.27	0.91	0.36	19.55	242.00	90.73	332.73	-2.2725	DST vs 49ers	1.09	0.09	2.36	49.36	0.64	1.00	0.18	17.00	209.45	110.82	320.27	-2.3024	DST vs Browns	1.00	0.00	2.27	53.91	0.73	1.36	0.27	19.64	193.45	116.82	310.27	-2.7223	DST vs Seahawks	1.09	0.09	2.36	49.64	0.64	0.82	0.09	19.00	221.36	77.91	299.27	-2.9922	DST vs Dolphins	1.27	0.00	2.00	53.18	0.36	0.64	0.36	18.64	235.64	105.91	341.55	-3.4321	DST vs Cowboys	1.36	0.09	1.82	52.09	0.82	1.09	0.36	23.27	276.09	89.64	365.73	-4.0620	DST vs Raiders	1.18	0.00	3.00	54.00	0.55	1.82	0.09	23.18	196.09	139.73	335.82	-4.3119	DST vs Bills	1.09	0.09	2.09	48.09	0.64	1.27	0.09	20.82	208.36	110.09	318.45	-4.3418	DST vs Chargers	0.82	0.18	2.18	55.91	1.18	1.09	0.55	28.18	294.27	113.27	407.55	-5.1417	DST vs Lions	1.18	0.00	1.82	53.55	0.73	1.18	0.27	23.45	257.82	84.91	342.73	-5.2216	DST vs Giants	1.45	0.18	1.09	57.45	1.27	1.18	0.27	25.18	249.00	138.00	387.00	-5.2815	DST vs Titans	0.91	0.00	1.73	48.64	1.00	1.27	0.09	23.36	180.45	117.64	298.09	-5.3914	DST vs Rams	0.82	0.00	2.00	56.73	0.36	0.55	0.18	19.36	212.82	104.27	317.09	-5.6213	DST vs Buccaneers	0.45	0.00	1.82	50.55	0.82	0.91	0.18	19.91	203.09	116.27	319.36	-5.7612	DST vs Broncos	0.55	0.00	2.64	51.27	0.91	1.18	0.18	22.73	288.27	79.36	367.64	-5.7811	DST vs Steelers	0.73	0.00	2.55	50.36	0.64	1.00	0.09	23.09	208.45	126.00	334.45	-6.2910	DST vs Saints	1.36	0.00	1.45	56.73	0.55	1.00	0.36	24.09	291.00	94.18	385.18	-6.819	DST vs Ravens	0.73	0.00	2.09	56.73	0.73	1.00	0.00	22.73	233.91	114.36	348.27	-7.498	DST vs Packers	0.82	0.00	1.91	50.36	0.45	1.00	0.09	24.45	255.64	98.36	354.00	-8.677	DST vs Texans	0.64	0.00	2.18	52.45	0.45	0.82	0.09	24.00	235.18	132.55	367.73	-8.996	DST vs Colts	1.00	0.00	1.18	55.45	0.64	0.91	0.18	25.64	297.73	82.64	380.36	-9.475	DST vs Eagles	0.45	0.00	2.91	55.27	0.64	1.64	0.09	28.18	252.64	146.64	399.27	-9.674	DST vs Falcons	0.45	0.00	1.55	58.09	0.45	0.45	0.27	25.09	236.45	127.91	364.36	-9.983	DST vs Jets	0.73	0.00	1.73	56.55	0.45	1.00	0.00	24.00	213.55	148.09	361.64	-10.032	DST vs Chiefs	0.36	0.00	1.36	55.36	0.36	0.64	0.27	25.91	200.91	174.27	375.18	-11.161	DST vs Patriots	0.45	0.00	1.36	51.91	0.36	0.27	0.09	30.36	236.73	112.45	349.18	-13.00Report Updated as of: 12/2/10 12:56 PM EST