Greg Olsen (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Not sure if he is still floating around on any WWs at this point, but I believe Olsen is primed to be a Top 5 TE moving forward. Watching Bears games he is a clear focal point of their passing game and it seems just about every possession inside the 10 he is targeted at least once (note: totally biased anecdotal assumption with no basis in hard data on my part )

The way Orton has helped to create an actual passing attack for the Bears, they will probably be good for 200-250 passing yards a game, which will lead to more opportunities than the team previously generated for TEs.

Any Bears homers have any input or opinions on the remainder of his 08 outlook? About the only issue I see is Clark, but Olsen seems to be making more and more of a case for himself as the primary passing TE ...

 

[FavreCo]

I own him. I need to see more consistency out of the QB and playcalling. He was invisible vs ATL 2 weeks back until they were down big. Then they threw to him and almost won. Head scratching play calling...just like the horrid Lions.

 

[pantagrapher]

I'm a big fan of Olson. Drafted him in the final round and dropped him after his 2-fumble game. But he seems to have corrected whatever was wrong and Orton looks to him constantly. He had a bunch of targets yesterday—I'm going to guess nearly 15—and he catches just about every catchable ball that comes his way. I like the kid and wouldn't be surprised at all if he's top 5 after the bye next week.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

i'm using him as my TE from here on out. He gets red zone looks and that alone should keep his pts up.

 

[Tau837]

He has 4 red zone targets for 2 TDs in 7 games. I think his red zone prowess is being overstated in this thread...

 

[Birdie048]

I dropped LJ Smith (who I had high expectations for with Philly weak WR corp) for Olsen. He is clearly a hold over his bye week for me. If you look at his production the last 4, he is scoring well in PPR leagues (over 60 pts in my league).

His early issues were a dark cloud on his value. It appears he has moved past them and is becoming a major part of the passing game.

Top 5? Possible.

Top 10? Definitely!

 

[packersfan]

He has 4 red zone targets for 2 TDs in 7 games. I think his red zone prowess is being overstated in this thread...

He's making plays, though, and he's scoring. In a year devoid of a large number of quality TEs he has a real chance to emerge in a big way the rest of the season. I'm not sure he'll be a Top 5 TE but I think he can become a weekly starter and given how horrible the TE position is this year that counts for a lot.He has two TDs in his last four games and should have three. He dropped a TD against the Falcons.

 

[Preds]

I cut him week 3 or 4, after the 3 fumbles in 2 games and limited production. Of course he started to produce the week after I cut him, thus you're all welcome!

Friggin idiot that I am, I shoulda cut bait on VD instead. Big mistake there!

 

[cjdavis]

He had a bunch of targets yesterday—I'm going to guess nearly 15—and he catches just about every catchable ball that comes his way.

8 targets, actually. But agree that he's definitely on the upswing.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

He has 4 red zone targets for 2 TDs in 7 games. I think his red zone prowess is being overstated in this thread...

there's also the first looks that dont show up in any stats. Around the goal line, Orton is looking for Olsen.

 

[tombonneau]

He has 4 red zone targets for 2 TDs in 7 games. I think his red zone prowess is being overstated in this thread...

there's also the first looks that dont show up in any stats. Around the goal line, Orton is looking for Olsen.

Good point, and this is what might stand out to me more. He clearly is the top red zone option. As others noted, with the TEs being pretty weak this year, I don't think it takes him much to get into the top 5. I think for the past 3-4 weeks he's been top 3 in my league, maybe even higher after last week.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I own him. I need to see more consistency out of the QB and playcalling. He was invisible vs ATL 2 weeks back until they were down big. Then they threw to him and almost won. Head scratching play calling...just like the horrid Lions.

Need more consistency out of the QB?Lowest yards passing for Orton in the last 5 weeks is 199. His TD / INT ratio for the year 10/4 and he's thrown at least 2 TDs in 4 of the last 5 games. If that's not consistent, then I don't know what is.As for Olsen, as long as he gets about 5 targets per game, he should be effective and right now he's averaging just under 5 per game.The big dent that is put into Olsen's numbers is the fact that the Bears use both their TEs equally as Desmond Clark (30) only has 3 less targets than Olsen(33) does.It really has nothing to do with head scratching play calling and they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Lions as an offensive unit.

 

[Tecmo]

Yeah, good upswing player. of the few Bears games I've watched, they try some deeper routes with Olson at least once. The Bears run a ton of 2-TE sets and Clark has been pretty impressive too. Prob need Clark to go away for the stats to get high enough for top-5. Bears really spread it around too

 

[NatronIsMean]

I own him. I need to see more consistency out of the QB and playcalling. He was invisible vs ATL 2 weeks back until they were down big. Then they threw to him and almost won. Head scratching play calling...just like the horrid Lions.

Need more consistency out of the QB?Lowest yards passing for Orton in the last 5 weeks is 199. His TD / INT ratio for the year 10/4 and he's thrown at least 2 TDs in 4 of the last 5 games. If that's not consistent, then I don't know what is.As for Olsen, as long as he gets about 5 targets per game, he should be effective and right now he's averaging just under 5 per game.The big dent that is put into Olsen's numbers is the fact that the Bears use both their TEs equally as Desmond Clark (30) only has 3 less targets than Olsen(33) does.It really has nothing to do with head scratching play calling and they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Lions as an offensive unit.

Bingo. As much as I manlove Olsen, Desmond Clark is still very, very good. The Bears have a great pair of TEs, which is great for us fans and Orton but not for either TE in fantasy.

 

[TitusIII]

Olsen has improved significantly over the past year...he's looking like he has what it takes to be a stud in the very near future. As long as Dez Clark is around, his numbers will suffer, but his talent jumps out at you.

 

[Raider Nation]

Not sure if he is still floating around on any WWs at this point, but I believe Olsen is primed to be a Top 5 TE moving forward.

He is NOW...Cutler throws the best deep seam pass in the business.

 

[Routilla]

Agreed. Olsen has to move up a great deal for this season.

 

[Domination]

I think it is fair to move him up. But it is not like Cutler made Scheffler into an elite TE, so I think that if you think he will do this for Olsen than you are asking too much.

 

[H.K.]

I think it is fair to move him up. But it is not like Cutler made Scheffler into an elite TE, so I think that if you think he will do this for Olsen than you are asking too much.

Intitially I agreed with your line of thinking, but after looking at this move a little bit, Olsen sure has a lot going for him now.Scheffler and Graham caught 72 passes between them last year and 73 the year before. However, Cutler had guys like Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley, and Eddie Royal as other options.Now here is the current FBG depth chart for Chicago:WR: Devin Hester (PR), Earl Bennett, Rashied Davis, Brandon RideauTE: Greg Olsen, Desmond Clark, Kellen DavisNowhere near the options at WR Cutler had in Denver.Olsen was more integrated into Chicago's offense at the end of last season, too. He averaged 4.5 targets and had 2 TD's the first 11 games and 6.6 targets and had 3 TD's the final five. Better QB and more opportunities are going to make for a very nice year for Olsen.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The Chicago Bears TEs in 2008 caught 95 balls between Olsen and Clark...54/41...you have to think Olsen could improve by at least 20% with Cutler under center.

Olsen now jumps to a range IMO of 65-80 balls perhaps, 5-7TDs, 700+ yds...he should be top10 at least moving forward.

 

[Prof. Chaos]

The Chicago Bears TEs in 2008 caught 95 balls between Olsen and Clark...54/41...you have to think Olsen could improve by at least 20% with Cutler under center. Olsen now jumps to a range IMO of 65-80 balls perhaps, 5-7TDs, 700+ yds...he should be top10 at least moving forward.

 

[H.K.]

The Chicago Bears TEs in 2008 caught 95 balls between Olsen and Clark...54/41...you have to think Olsen could improve by at least 20% with Cutler under center. Olsen now jumps to a range IMO of 65-80 balls perhaps, 5-7TDs, 700+ yds...he should be top10 at least moving forward.

Your projection has him top 5 easily.Olsen was Top 10 last year and here is how he finished among TE's in 2008:Targets 82 - 9th overallReceptions 54 - 10th overall (note that 6 catches separated the #6 and #10 ranking)Yards 574 - 12th overallTD's 5 - 7th overall (tie with two others)

 

[BoulderBob]

He's a stud, no doubt about it...imo

 

[Tau837]

I can see some potential here but I think people are overstating the upside for Olsen.

He had 82 targets in 16 games last season, with Chicago attempting 527 passes. As a point of comparison, Scheffler had 60 targets in 13 games, with Denver attempting 616 passes. I don't really follow using Scheffler as the basis for raising expectations for Olsen.

Now, Olsen did improve some down the stretch last year. And one can argue that the quality his targets may go up a bit with Cutler. But I certainly don't see any basis to suggest he'll catch 80 balls.

He is no lock for top 5 IMO, but I'd say he has secured his spot in the top 10.

 

[Couch Potato]

I can see some potential here but I think people are overstating the upside for Olsen.

He had 82 targets in 16 games last season, with Chicago attempting 527 passes. As a point of comparison, Scheffler had 60 targets in 13 games, with Denver attempting 616 passes. I don't really follow using Scheffler as the basis for raising expectations for Olsen.

Now, Olsen did improve some down the stretch last year. And one can argue that the quality his targets may go up a bit with Cutler. But I certainly don't see any basis to suggest he'll catch 80 balls.

He is no lock for top 5 IMO, but I'd say he has secured his spot in the top 10.

Desmond Clark has averaged 73 targets and 43 receptions over the last 3 years. He's 32 this year, and aside from freak-of-nature Tony Gonzalez nearly all TEs are about through as pass catchers by then. They age less like WRs and more like RBs, perhaps even worse. I think Des is very close to being through, and many of those 73 targets and 43 catches will come Olsen's way. Maybe not all in 2009, but soon.Cutler's style as compared to Orton's will improve Olsen's YPC as well. I see him a lot closer to 11.5 - 12.0 than the 10.0 - 10.5 with Orton.

I don't expect 527 passes from CHI this year. While I agree Cutler won't wing it 616 times, the Bears didn't bring Cutler in so he could imitate Orton. He'll make more plays to keep drives alive, and the team should have more total offensive plays in 2009. Defenses won't be able to key on the run, and that should be better from a YPC standpoint. So, the total pie is bigger, that passing piece of the pie is bigger, and all that will do is help Olsen. I expect something between 527 and 616 passes; where that will be I don't know but 560+ seems reasonable.

I think if you pull 20 catches from the other TE, add 5-10 catches on the basis of improved passing game overall and more emphasis on the pass, higher YPC and red zone chances, weakness at WR2 and WR3, Olsen has a real chance at elite status. Whether that happens as soon as 2009 will depend on Desmond Clark's decline and how fast Cutler and Olsen mesh, but by 2010 I think he could be 75+/900/6+ and earn a top-3 TE ranking. While that's upside and not expectation, there's my rationale for possibly catching 80 balls.