I don't make it a habit to be a conspiracy theorist, but I think realistically, you have to take this whole business with a grain of salt.
Although the Networks and the NFL are going to try and convince all of us that these matchups will be 'the best the week has to offer', I think everyone has to look at this with a caveat...
...for revenue purposes, and exposure, both parties will have their own self interests in mind when it comes to which matchups hit the airwaves, unless the true 'best games' are between the 'best teams'...
I went through the entire season schedule, and examined all the nationally televised games, and here's what I got, in terms of appearances by each of the NFL teams, before and after these matchups occur. In other words, these prime time matchups are already set in stone with the existing schedule
# of Nationally Televised Games / Team
3 Redskins
4 NYGiants
6 Cowboys
3 Eagles
3 Bears
3 Packers
3 Vikings
1 Lions
3 Panthers
2 Falcons
2 Buccaneers
1 Saints
4 Seahawks
1 Rams
1 Cardinals
1 49'ers
3 Patriots
2 Dolphins
1 NY Jets
0 Bills
2 Bengals
4 Steelers
2 Ravens
1 Browns
2 Jaguars
3 Colts
0 Texans
0 Titans
2 Chiefs
4 Broncos
2 Chargers
4 Raiders
I'm going to take it to the bank that any team on this list that already plays 3 or more pre-scheduled games on National TV is NOT going to be the NFL or Networks' FIRST choice for one of the slots in these unscheduled late season Sunday Night 'premium' matchups, if an equally compelling game presents itself. If they can give the exposure to a quality team in a quality matchup that has fewer than 3 appearances, I think they'll do it.
If these teams are anywhere at all decent, and playing a game with implications, first nod would go to any of the following teams, who all have less than 3 pre-scheduled National TV games:
Lions, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Cardinals, Rams, 49'ers, NYJets, Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Chiefs and Chargers.
Of this crew, I'd say it's more than likely that a small group will be 'in the playoff loop' from Week 10 forward, and eligible for additional exposure:
Falcons
Buccaneers
Rams
Ravens
Bengals
Jaguars
Chiefs
Chargers
I'm going to add some of my own opinion here, and say that if they even achieve a modicum of success and are hovering around the .500 mark at Week 10, both the NFL and the Media are going to adopt the Lions in the NFC, and the Texans in the AFC as their 'darlings', and try to push coverage their way as much as possible, where opportunity presents itself.
Whenever the Networks and the NFL can guarantee killing two birds with one stone, it's pretty much a lock that it's going to happen. It's not like any of us are going to refuse to watch, if the true 'best game' isn't shown, anyway. If anything, it will just stir up more controversy, which will only yeild more exposure, serving itself, the Networks and the League in the end...
With that in mind, here's my list, with both 'ideal' matchups, in terms of what we'd like to see, vs what the NFL and the Networks will promote, if the circumstances lend itself to that...
Week 10:
No Brainers:
Bears at NYGiants
Redskins at Eagles
Rams at Seahawks
Each of these matchups has plenty of potential for NFC Playoff implications here...
More likely what we'll see, if the circumstances are right, especially since star-power sells ads, and gets folks to watch...
Chiefs at Dolphins - It's Week 10, and C-Pep is healthy as a horse, and has Miami in position to snag an NFC Wildcard berth, or the Division outright from a still strong, but showing cracks Patriots squad. Chiefs have bought into Herm's scheme, and are running the ball mercilessly behind Larry Johnson and stuffing the run with authority, and in the same position as Miami, in regards to a WC berth, or possible Division Title.
Chargers at Bengals - See above, and substitute, where appropriate, the names Carson Palmer and LaDainian Tomlinson, etc, etc...
If, then...
Texans at Jaguars - I think the Texans would have to be over .500, and within a game of Jax and Indy to see this hit the airwaves, but if they are, I think it's the top priority matchup for everyone involved to get on TV. Jags have only 2 scheduled National TV appearances, and Texans have none, it's a Divisional Game with potential playoff implications..."See the upstart 5-4 Houston Texans come into Jacksonville for a Divisional Matchup vs Division Co Leader 6-3 Jaguars" that sort of thing...
Nostalgia pick: Packers at Vikings, if both have something to play for at that point, but likely running a distant last to the rest of the above matchups.
Week 11:
No Brainers:
Colts at Cowboys
Circumstances/Implications:
Falcons at Ravens
Vikings at Dolphins***
Patriots at Packers
Raiders at Chiefs
Rams at Panthers
Redskins at Buccaneers
Chargers at Broncos
***No question, if both of these teams are in position to be challenging for something, we'll all be watching Culpepper get his shot at his old team. It's a Network/NFL Ratings Lollapalooza***
Week 12:
No Brainers:
Bears at Patriots
Eagles at Colts
Steelers at Ravens***
Circumstances/Implications:
Panthers at Redskins
Raiders at Chargers
***This is the one the Networks/NFL have their eyes on, for sure. You've got Steelers traveling to Bitter Division Rival Baltimore (former Browns) led by ex Titans QB McNair. So many subplots it's ridiculous. They'd eat this up publicity-wise, if both teams are in position to make a late season run at a playoff berth...
Week 13:
No Brainers:
Cowboys at NYGiants
Seahawks at Broncos
Circumstances/Implications:
Falcons at Redskins
Jaguars at Dolphins
Buccaneers at Steelers
What they'd love to see:
Cardinals at Rams
Lions at Patriots - see Texans at Jags, Week 10, without the Divisional implications.
Week 14:
No Brainers:
Colts at Jaguars
Patriots at Dolphins
NYGiants at Panthers
Eagles at Redskins
Broncos at Chargers
Falcons at Buccaneers
Circumstances/Implications:
Ravens at Chiefs
Kind of a 'weak week', overall, in terms of unpredictable, exciting matchups between media-underserved teams...
Week 15:
No Brainers:
Eagles at NYGiants
Steelers at Panthers
Chiefs at Chargers
Circumstances/Implications:
Buccaneers at Bears
Another relatively 'blah' week, in terms of what's being discussed...
Week 16:
No Brainers:
Ravens at Steelers
Panthers at Falcons
Patriots at Jaguars
Bengals at Broncos
Chargers at Seahawks
Circumstances/Implications:
Boy, would they LOVE to see it:
Bears at Lions
Colts at Texans
If either of these teams had any shot at a WC berth, having the likely Division Leaders and powerhouses going in on the road, late in the season, with the potential 'upset factor' rearing it's ugly head. It would absolutely blow a hole through the ratings roof. Network and League Execs would be doing cartwheels and suffering coronaries if these stars crossed...
Week 17:
No Brainers:
Steelers at Bengals
Circumstances/Implications:
Falcons at Eagles
Packers at Bears
Jaguars at Chiefs
Dolphins at Colts
Seahawks at Buccaneers
They'd love to see it:
Lions at Cowboys (the two Thanksgiving Turkeys duke-ing it out for a WC Berth)
Cardinals at Chargers (Edge vs LT, in a potential, though unlikely, Super Bowl Preview?)...
...just offering up more fat to chew on.
Excellent topic!
IIRC, FOX and CBS both have the ability to block 5 games total from weeks 10-15 and 17 (week 16 is Christmas weekend). I think the NFL makes the call about 7-10 days out.
I don't see why this bothers everyone.
