Had my draft yesterday and something odd happened (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

I had my main league 10 team re-draft yesterday. Our group has been together for 15 years and something odd happened this year. The past couple of drafts have been pretty stale since ADP information has become readily available to everyone. Our drafts become pretty predictable, with maybe a surprise here or there in rounds 3 or 4.

So going into the draft this year I was expecting this season to go pretty close to status quo.As the first round unfolded I noticed that a couple of players were drafted a little higher or lower than their ADP (Forte 1.2, Slaton 1.6, Westbrook 1.10). I didn't think to much of it and went about my business of trying to build a good team. A few picks before my 3rd round pick an owner said the following as he was making his pick



"Well I know that this is early for taking him, but I really want him and he's not going to be around next time I pick"

Just then another owner said:

"Yeah, I've had the same feelings so far today"

Then from that point on the entire draft changed. Owners were knowingly taking players out of ADP order and taking guys when THEY wanted too. The talk after the draft was about this topic. One guy said it was the maturation of the league. Another owner said it was the simple idea that guys wanted to take WHO they wanted WHEN they wanted.

It was a big shift our league and had major impacts on the draft. I just wanted to share for those having drafts coming up. You can prepare all you want with mock drafts and ADP, but none of that matters when the timer is ticking away and it's draft day.

 

[tim_whatley]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.

Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

 

[Judge Smails]

I don't think it's that unusual at all in a lot of leagues, especially those more mature. In our league there were no real surprises the first two rounds, just slight differences in who went (RB, QB, WR) based on the individual's strategy. But starting in round 3, and especially 4 and 5, ADP didn't really matter much. Especially if those with higher ADP's were on notoriously bad teams/offenses which have disappointed in the past. As an example, McFadden stayed much longer on the board than his ADP would indicate. A lot of our owners just have no faith in anything related to the Raiders. But there was a buzz, feel good situation about a number of players this year. Palmer, Benson, Ocho and Henry were looked at a bit more favorably. People wanted Ahmad Bradshaw no matter what his ADP was. Monster rushing attach, and can score big even if Jacobs is healthy.

Also, after being in the league a few years you get players you never want on your team again. Therefore, guys start falling out of their ADP. And it's not always a bad idea. I look at the # of 2nd, 3rd and 4th round flops last year and it was off the charts...Get the players you feel good about in your gut and the teams you want to watch. I don't want to watch the Browns/Raiders offense this year - sorry.

 

[Heatman]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

I wouldn't say it's a bad idea at all. As a matter of fact it's something I have done and done well with. Reason being that even with all the "expert" ranking and analysis players never finish in the order of their pre-season rankings. So if I have a player I like over players "ranked" ahead of him I will take him when I deem it necessary. Many will disagree with this strategy but to each his own. All I can say is I've won many leagues drafting my way and quite a few times my team has been ranked as the worst team in the league after the draft is over, only to go on and win it all.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I forget who said it recently, but it was said to take your fantasy draft like a poker game. If the table is loose, play tight. If it's tight, play loose. I agree. If everybody sticks to ADP, you're going to be able to get "your" guys and that can pay big time. If it's all over the place, it is very likely that some great value is going to fall through the cracks. Maybe (if it doesn't cost too much) it's more fun to just ride the roller coaster and see what shakes out.

 

[Avery]

You know, we like to look and stats to predict the future of fantasy football. Although I know that past production is an important indicator of future production the truth is we can't predict the future and luck plays a large part. I've come around a bit that, at least with the relative small stakes leagues I play in, it's really about having fun and it makes it a lot of fun to get the guys you believe in on your team to root for.

I'm not saying to grab Russell before Brady because you think Russell will break out, but within reason I see nothing wrong with grabbing a guy a round or two "early" because you have a strong belief in him.

A good example where I missed out was last year I wanted Calvin Johnson in a startup dynasty league but ADP told me he should be around for another two rounds. Someone else grabbed him a round early and I've watch his production jealously. from afar ever since.

Having said all this, it can also be fun to watch the value fall to you as other people reach for players they believe in.

 

[Riffraff]

So what was being said was that the league members started using their own brain instead of moving their finger down a random stranger's cheatsheet?

Good for them.

 

[JohnnyU]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

VBD is overrated.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I had my main league 10 team re-draft yesterday. Our group has been together for 15 years and something odd happened this year. The past couple of drafts have been pretty stale since ADP information has become readily available to everyone. Our drafts become pretty predictable, with maybe a surprise here or there in rounds 3 or 4.

So going into the draft this year I was expecting this season to go pretty close to status quo.As the first round unfolded I noticed that a couple of players were drafted a little higher or lower than their ADP (Forte 1.2, Slaton 1.6, Westbrook 1.10). I didn't think to much of it and went about my business of trying to build a good team. A few picks before my 3rd round pick an owner said the following as he was making his pick



"Well I know that this is early for taking him, but I really want him and he's not going to be around next time I pick"

Just then another owner said:

"Yeah, I've had the same feelings so far today"

Then from that point on the entire draft changed. Owners were knowingly taking players out of ADP order and taking guys when THEY wanted too. The talk after the draft was about this topic. One guy said it was the maturation of the league. Another owner said it was the simple idea that guys wanted to take WHO they wanted WHEN they wanted.

It was a big shift our league and had major impacts on the draft. I just wanted to share for those having drafts coming up. You can prepare all you want with mock drafts and ADP, but none of that matters when the timer is ticking away and it's draft day.

To me, the best use of ADP data is to allow you to do exactly that. Look ahead and see all of the players that will likely be gone the next time that you pick and take the one that you like best. If you pick 5th overall and you think that Steve Slaton is going to be a top 3 RB, then you should take him because he wont be there for your second round pick. IMO, that is not a reach. Its a sign of an owner that is willing to think for themselves. This game is alot more fun when you stick your neck out every once and a while.If people start routinely taking players two or three rounds ahead of time, I would agree that this makes very little sense.

 

[moondog]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

VBD is overrated.

Way overrated.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

What is ADP?

Why do the sheep follow?

 

[Black]

Just had the draft for the start of my 2-person Keeper league, 4th year. Same thing happened. I brought my Yahoo rankings to help gauge when players would be taken, and it was worthless.

One guy did a FBG type draft, taking guys like Ray Rice and Donald Brown, except about 2 rounds early. So much for my 'get them one round early' value plan.

As a result, players like Addai, Reggie Bush, A. Bryant slide to the 7th, 8th and 10th rounds, respectively. This is a PPR league, and I know those guys have injury concerns, but normally they would have been taken in lock-step at their ADPs.

I felt like the league has really changed or the 'typical' reference material has gotten much better.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Whomever got Bush in the 8th in a PPR league will win your league. The guy already proved he's the best PPR player in the world when healthy last year.

 

[faux_bear]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

VBD is overrated.

Way overrated.

I took Carson Palmer last year in the 6th round when he was regularly going in the 3rd or 4th. I thought it was a steal at that position even though I didn't really ever anticipate having him on my team and wasn't really all that excited about him. Everyone else in my league applauded the pick.My QB position was atrocious all season. It was a wasted draft pick. Would have been a wasted draft pick in the 12th round.VBD should only be a guide, but if you don't like a player, you shouldn't take him, even if it makes sense from a VBD standpoint.The Miami Heat last season. They felt compelled to take Michael Beasley number 2 overall because that's the pick that "made sense". Before the draft though they were sending signals that they weren't really enthralled with Beasley. But, any other pick would have been looked at unfavorably by fans and the talking heads and Pat Riley and the organization would have been lambasted in the media, so they went with Beasley.they took who they were supposed to took and lost (or at least so far).take who you want, not who you're supposed to take.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

I really enjoy when a guy drafts almost exclusively by the draft dominator, and then runs the DD report and says, "Look who the draft dominator says has the best team! I have the best team!"

 

[QuizGuy66]

What is ADP? Why do the sheep follow?

ADP is Adrian Peterson - it actually makes for an interesting draft when ever team in the league takes him I think that provided they aren't jumping on guys that would last until their next pick, the strategy makes a certain amount of sense. It happens with keepers too. I have Jacobs higher than most, know he will be surely gone at my first post-protect pick (3.10 in a 10-teamer) and still am not 100% on taking Forte. Jacobs is rated generally in the teens, but I think that's undervalue for our format. I'm not 100% sold on Forte being anything more than a steady guy who a limited ceiling. Thus the conundrum. That said, the more guys that go above their ADP, the more guys that slip (either a little or a lot). I personally think having tiers in these cases matters a bit more than strict VBD since you can figure when the real drop-off occurs. And sometime "reaches" work out. I took Peterson as a rookie about 2 rounds ahead of where he "typically" would go in average drafts. While there were murmurs and a chuckle or two in the room, I tend to think it ended up worth it -QG

 

[moderated]

i think people are finally realizing how much luck is involved in any one season of FF and are finally starting to draft players they like instead of what a computer generated cheat sheet tells them to pick.

I used to encourage everyone in my league to use the draft dominator so i could predict who they were going to take, but after a few years of failure they all stopped using it and are back to drafting based on what they think.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

i think people are finally realizing how much luck is involved in any one season of FF and are finally starting to draft players they like instead of what a computer generated cheat sheet tells them to pick.I used to encourage everyone in my league to use the draft dominator so i could predict who they were going to take, but after a few years of failure they all stopped using it and are back to drafting based on what they think.

I drafted off a paper player list for the first time in 5 years. It was refreshing. Ask me in 8 weeks or sohow it went...

 

[TheFanatic]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

This just in. ADP is not really indicative of player performance once the season starts. The shark sees that a guy will likely go in the next round that he really wants based on ADP and take him a round early if the shark doesn't think he will be there when he picks in that round. It sounds to me like the OP's league did indeed evolve into something more than a dull yearly draft.

 

[captbly]

That generally a bad idea, unless your league is full of clairvoyants who's instincts are 100% honed.Probably benefited you though if you stuck to drafting based on value.

VBD is overrated.

I disagree. VBD is the best way to go. most people look at the ADP, but not many are using VBD. I still skip some guys or "reach" a little for others, but for the most part isnt the draft about getting the best value for the pick?

 

[Riffraff]

I used to encourage everyone in my league to use the draft dominator so i could predict who they were going to take, but after a few years of failure they all stopped using it and are back to drafting based on what they think.

Agree the draft dominator is a great tool for eying who others will take. It can help dominate in unintended ways.Also agree with the other poster that said people draft with the DD and then use the same measuring tool to show they have the best team. Well, duh. LOLI do the same sort of thing with cheatsheets.I always print out the cheatsheet that the majority of the league uses, so I can use it against them. If the league is made up of mostly FBG people, print out the FBG cheatsheet. It's a strong indicator of who they will pick next. Just being a paying < insert website > member doesn't make them much better at fantasy football.

 

[Arizona Ron]

What is ADP? Why do the sheep follow?

ADP is Adrian Peterson

Might be my new sig

 

[Bolted]

Dig up one of the ADP lists from a previous year, or break out last years copy of whatever fantasy football magazine you bought, and compare to what actually happened by the end of the season. You will stop worrying about what the experts say. I use the ADP to religiously estimate what my draftmates will do, and that is it. Never take a player you aren't thrilled to get even if they fell to you. you only have a few slots on a team, use it for the talent you really want. By week 4 you will regret you took that overated WR instead of that sleeper Defense you just knew would be great.

 

[The Jerk]

My entire draft strategy revolves around taking the player I want who I believe will not be available at my next pick. I suppose elements of VBD, ADP and tiering all play a role, as does understanding league/owner tendencies, where applicable. So I've done exactly what this league did this year for more than a decade.

However, I do add one more element to the draft process and that is consideration of the emerging scarcity at all positions I still need -- I use this as a tiebreaker to choose between positions when two or more are nearing the end of a tier. Most of my end-stage draft preparation involves following scenarios in which I take a QB or TE early so that I know in which rounds I will likely need to choose a RB or WR to avoid major falloff. Sometimes that preparation dictates that I should avoid all but the biggest bargains at QB/TE. Other times it shows that the dropoff is likely not very steep.

I use weighted projections (multiple sources combined by my confidence in them) that are then ordered in part by using my league's draft history as a baseline to give me a draft list. In this manner, the list is mostly a customized league ADP but also gives me the idea of when I need to take the players I want before they are drafted. Essentially I try to find the right balance between not overpaying and waiting too long to draft a player I desperately want on my team.

An example this year when I draft with the 43rd overall pick (5.03, 10 team league), if I have not selected a QB, I will be drafting one of the big 4 TEs or Olsen if he is still available, even though my draft list suggests three of those players are worse than my 43rd best option. The list ranks three of them from 51-53 so I expect none will be there when I draft at #58 (6.08). I am already confident that I have sufficient options for my #3 RB or #3 receiver that I will likely draft at the #58 pick so I feel like the better move is to strengthen my TE position and not risk falling to the next tier.

 

[The Jerk]

Dig up one of the ADP lists from a previous year, or break out last years copy of whatever fantasy football magazine you bought, and compare to what actually happened by the end of the season. You will stop worrying about what the experts say. I use the ADP to religiously estimate what my draftmates will do, and that is it. Never take a player you aren't thrilled to get even if they fell to you. you only have a few slots on a team, use it for the talent you really want. By week 4 you will regret you took that overated WR instead of that sleeper Defense you just knew would be great.

I suppose that mathematically it makes sense to follow ADP -- appropriately adjusted for a given league scoring system. In an infinite number of leagues, all the unique elements of a league, such as scoring, owner tendencies, etc. all would balance out and the conservative pick would most likely be correct. The problem of course is that no one plays in an infinite number of leagues, which means those league quirks are often highly significant.I know I fell for the "I can wait another round" strategy with Matt Forte last year and it cost me a championship as my only weak spot was at RB2 which he would have easily filled.

 

[KCC]

Just an aside which seems necessary given some of the earlier posts:

ADP does NOT identify value. ADP is more a reflection of popularity in draft order where as value comes from selecting high fantasy point players later in your draft. You may have a guy with a first round ADP who falls to you in the third round. Despite the fact that you drafted him much later than his ADP figure, he still would not be a value pick if he blows his knee out in game 1 and earns you zero fantasy points for the season.

 

[None_More_Black]

Keep in mind average draft position mean just that, average. Guys go all over the place especially after the first three rounds.