Had two real time drafts today - a few observations (1 Viewer)

[Four Horsemen]

I can't remember a season where there really isn't a no-brainer tier of 2 or 3 guys to pick at the top of the draft.

In the second league (standard scoring) Rice actually went 2nd ahead of Foster.

Chris Johnson still went early. He went 8th in the first draft and 5th in the second. I know some people will think 8 is a steal but I'm too risk averse.

MJD went early second round in both.

Peyton Manning went in middle second of the first draft, but that was by an owner who is historically bullish on QBs. In the later draft he went off the board in the middle 4th about 8 QBs deep.

Both drafts had 3 QBs going in the first round, which really bucks league historic trends. Rodgers and Vick were expected but Brees surprised me. Rivers went early 2nd round which really surprised me.

20 picks deep in both drafts and what I consider the elite receivers (A Johnson, C Johnson, White, V Jackson, Fitzgerald, and Jennings) were all gone.

People seemed to wait longer on elite TEs more than they have the last few years. Gates went late round 3 in both, but unlike previous years it didn't start a run. Jermichael Finley and Jason Witten started the runs in each draft in the 6th.

Here's what I took out of it:

QB - If you believe you have to have one of the elite 6 you better grab one in the first two rounds, no later than the first few picks of the third. Because of that the mid-tier guys (Ben R, Schaub, Eli) are going in the 4th or 5th. Because so many owners took QBs earlier than in the past there were a few realy steals in the 8th, 9th, 10th rounds like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford.

RB - There's actually more depth at RB in the middle rounds than there is a WR. Tim Hightower no longer appears to be a sleeper going in the third in one draft and fifth in the second. But in rounds 6, 7, 8, and 9 you're seeing names like Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Mike Tolbert, Reggie Bush, James Starks, Fred Jackson, and CJ Spiller.

WR - IMO WR drops off the cliff quickly. Like I mentioned earlier the elites were all gone 20-25 picks in. Nobody was biting on Brandon Lloyd or Dwayne Bowe as they went late 4th/mid-5th range. By the time you got to the sixth round the best guys on the board were guys like Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith (Car), Julie Jones, Lance Moore, Johnny Knox, etc.

TE - Run started later than usual. Jimmy Graham seems to be on everybody's radar as he went in the Top 5 at the position in both drafts. You're probably not going to get him thinking you can wait until after the run on the perceived elite.

K - Even in a 17-round league and a 15-round league you can wait and get an unexciting productive guy with the last pick. I actually got snipered on the Eagles new kicker Henery in the 17th round of the first draft. In both drafts I was one of the last to select a kicker both times in the last round. I ended up with the unexciting but productive Josh Brown/StL in both. Good kicker in a dome on a good offense in a week division.

Def/St - Waited until next to last round in both. In the first draft I got snipered on the Cowboys in the 16th and still ended up with the Giants and their pass rush. In the other I ended up with the Bucs, good return game and emerging defense. Neither gets anyone excited but these are the OK defenses at an unpredictable position you'll get while stocking up on RB/WR sleepers.

Hope this provides some help to people in upcoming drafts.

 

[Johnny Rock]

Thanks. Good to see where some of the fast-risers are going like Hightower. Can't count on a blended ADP this close to the season.

Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

 

[Raider Nation]

Thanks for posting this.

 

[jimmy b]

Nice job Horse.....Thanks for the input.

Did Blount go before or after Hightower ?

I've also seen H. Nicks drafted at the turn, is he starting to fall off a little. ?

Thanks and good luck this year.

 

[iix]

Nice post. Thanks for the info.

 

[Autopsy the Clown]

Interesting info, thanks for sharing

 

[fantasy stud]

Saw Hightower go in the 5th in my 12 team league yesterday. I think that ESPN game put him on everybodys radar

 

[Andrew Garda]

Wanted to add that I just did a draft today where I used Waldman's upside down strategy - WR-WR then WR-QB or TE then RB heavy after - and this is the year to do it. Lots of RB depth while not a ton of WR depth as you hit 4-5-6 rounds.

QBS ARE going super early. Had 6(!) in two rounds today - all of the elite.

Hightower dropped in my draft, as did a few other guys like Addai and Wells. Not a surprise as some of the guys in the league aren't paying as much attention as others.

Great stuff - thanks for sharing.

 

[Ian F]

Yeah I have noticed QBs go earlier than ADP in most of my drafts also and Manning has dropped a lot in some cases or not at all in others

 

[Black]

Thanks for the info. Good stuff.

 

[sammy8887]

Nice post from the OP...I also participated in a 14-team draft PPR draft today and was pretty surprised at how much it differed from the mocks I participated in. QBs were definitely flying off the board (though I play in a 6-pt. passing TD league). Romo and Schaub at the beginning of the 3rd round. Big Ben at the end of the 3rd. I feel fortunate to have gotten Matt Ryan in the 6th. Peyton didn't go until the middle of the 5th round in our draft.Just can never account in the mocks for reaches you're going to have in your real draft like Julio Jones at the beginning of the 5th round or Felix Jones in the middle of the 2nd. Here's what I was able to pick from the 10 spot: McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, S. Holmes, B. Marshall, Ryan, J. Graham, S. Rice, Garcon, Helu, M. Sanchez, B. Edwards, Jacquizz Rodgers, J. Cook and Hester.

Thanks. Good to see where some of the fast-risers are going like Hightower. Can't count on a blended ADP this close to the season. Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

In our draft...Felix - 2.12Manningham - 4.14Ingram - 5.05Stafford - 7.05Bradford - 7.09D. Moore - undrafted

 

[eakfootball]

Nice post from the OP...I also participated in a 14-team draft PPR draft today and was pretty surprised at how much it differed from the mocks I participated in. QBs were definitely flying off the board (though I play in a 6-pt. passing TD league). Romo and Schaub at the beginning of the 3rd round. Big Ben at the end of the 3rd. I feel fortunate to have gotten Matt Ryan in the 6th. Peyton didn't go until the middle of the 5th round in our draft.Just can never account in the mocks for reaches you're going to have in your real draft like Julio Jones at the beginning of the 5th round or Felix Jones in the middle of the 2nd. Here's what I was able to pick from the 10 spot: McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, S. Holmes, B. Marshall, Ryan, J. Graham, S. Rice, Garcon, Helu, M. Sanchez, B. Edwards, Jacquizz Rodgers, J. Cook and Hester.

Thanks. Good to see where some of the fast-risers are going like Hightower. Can't count on a blended ADP this close to the season. Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

In our draft...Felix - 2.12Manningham - 4.14Ingram - 5.05Stafford - 7.05Bradford - 7.09D. Moore - undrafted

Drop Hester for Moore immediately.

 

[Manster]

very interesting.

i was planning on waiting on QB at the 10 spot in a ten teamer. if Romo falls to me at the 3/4 turn i will pull the trigger. otherwise i was going to wait on Big Ben. Looks like he's on the rise. i hope he makes it to the 5/6 turn, he has in the mocks i've been doing. BUT, like the OP said, his drafts were very unlike the mocks.

it helps to know the tendencies of your leaguemates. mine like QB's. I'm a fan of waiting on QB, but not too long. I think Big Ben generally represents huge value this year. his points per game for '10 are near the top.

 

[Johnny Rock]

Nice post from the OP...I also participated in a 14-team draft PPR draft today and was pretty surprised at how much it differed from the mocks I participated in. QBs were definitely flying off the board (though I play in a 6-pt. passing TD league). Romo and Schaub at the beginning of the 3rd round. Big Ben at the end of the 3rd. I feel fortunate to have gotten Matt Ryan in the 6th. Peyton didn't go until the middle of the 5th round in our draft.Just can never account in the mocks for reaches you're going to have in your real draft like Julio Jones at the beginning of the 5th round or Felix Jones in the middle of the 2nd. Here's what I was able to pick from the 10 spot: McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, S. Holmes, B. Marshall, Ryan, J. Graham, S. Rice, Garcon, Helu, M. Sanchez, B. Edwards, Jacquizz Rodgers, J. Cook and Hester.

Thanks. Good to see where some of the fast-risers are going like Hightower. Can't count on a blended ADP this close to the season. Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

In our draft...Felix - 2.12Manningham - 4.14Ingram - 5.05Stafford - 7.05Bradford - 7.09D. Moore - undrafted

Thanks for posting.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I noticed very similar trends in mine. We had three QBs taken in round 1 as well, and in general the QBs flew off the board early, which really just proved to me that FF trends are based around what is seen as trendy, not what is statistically relevant (the spread in QB points is the lowest it's ever been, yet they're going earlier than they ever have, it makes zero sense).

A lot of the guys that were trendy 5th/6th round picks earlier in the offseason are long gone from that range now. Shonne Green went late 2nd, Mark Ingram early 3rd, Felix late 3rd, Blount in the 3rd, and Matthews/Wells in the 4th. Hightower did still fall to the early 6th though. Manningham in the 5th.

ETA: Stafford at 6.01 and Bradford mid 8th.

 

[oukurt]

Nice post from the OP...I also participated in a 14-team draft PPR draft today and was pretty surprised at how much it differed from the mocks I participated in. QBs were definitely flying off the board (though I play in a 6-pt. passing TD league). Romo and Schaub at the beginning of the 3rd round. Big Ben at the end of the 3rd. I feel fortunate to have gotten Matt Ryan in the 6th. Peyton didn't go until the middle of the 5th round in our draft.Just can never account in the mocks for reaches you're going to have in your real draft like Julio Jones at the beginning of the 5th round or Felix Jones in the middle of the 2nd. Here's what I was able to pick from the 10 spot: McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, S. Holmes, B. Marshall, Ryan, J. Graham, S. Rice, Garcon, Helu, M. Sanchez, B. Edwards, Jacquizz Rodgers, J. Cook and Hester.

Thanks. Good to see where some of the fast-risers are going like Hightower. Can't count on a blended ADP this close to the season. Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

In our draft...Felix - 2.12Manningham - 4.14Ingram - 5.05Stafford - 7.05Bradford - 7.09D. Moore - undrafted

In our current ongoing draft:In our 12 team draft...Felix - 4.6Manningham - 5.5Ingram - 3.3Stafford - 7.1At pick 9.6 now with Bradford and Moore undrafted.

 

[griff321]

Just got done with a slow draft 12 team FPC scoring and roster:

Felix: 4.01

Manningham: 5.02

Ingram: 5.01

Stafford: 8.04

Bradford: 10.01

D. Moore: 9.06

For a TE heavy league Elite TE lasted longer then I thought. Witten was the first off the board at 4.02 followed by a run of Gates(4.06), Clark(4.07), Finley(4.09), and Davis(5.05).

Elite QBs were another area that lasted longer then I expected. Rodgers went 1.10 then Vick at 2.07. The rest of the drafters were content to sit and wait for more value. Rivers was the next off the board at 4.12, then Brady at 5.04, Romo at 6.07, Brees at 6.10, and Manning at 7.07! Colts in general are sliding fast. Wayne went 3.07 Garcon 6.05, and Collie 6.09.

The "omg you gotta be kidding me" moment in this draft was Chris Johnson going 2.05!

 

[Andrew Garda]

Just got done with a slow draft 12 team FPC scoring and roster:

Felix: 4.01

Manningham: 5.02

Ingram: 5.01

Stafford: 8.04

Bradford: 10.01

D. Moore: 9.06

For a TE heavy league Elite TE lasted longer then I thought. Witten was the first off the board at 4.02 followed by a run of Gates(4.06), Clark(4.07), Finley(4.09), and Davis(5.05).

Elite QBs were another area that lasted longer then I expected. Rodgers went 1.10 then Vick at 2.07. The rest of the drafters were content to sit and wait for more value. Rivers was the next off the board at 4.12, then Brady at 5.04, Romo at 6.07, Brees at 6.10, and Manning at 7.07! Colts in general are sliding fast. Wayne went 3.07 Garcon 6.05, and Collie 6.09.

The "omg you gotta be kidding me" moment in this draft was Chris Johnson going 2.05!

Interesting - I actually would have grabbed Vick in that draft LOL.That seems to be an aberration though - most drafts I've seen and been in - even expert drafts - seem to have an early QB surge. Watching some of these early runs it makes me remember that if there's a run, usually you want to do the exact opposite.

 

[wilked]

What's a real time draft?

 

[NeverEnough]

In a recent draft (non-PPR dynasty) I was able to grab Reggie Wayne in the 5th & Witten in the 6th or 7th (TE required)!

 

[Rick James]

This year our league conducted a live, in-person, draft for the first time. It was awesome. Some thoughts:

-QBs went way faster than I thought. Rodgers (1.02), Vick (1.04), Brady (1.07), Brees (2.06), Rivers (2.10) went in the first 2 rounds. After that though, there was a lot of value out there. Romo went 4.01, 1 pick from me. Schaub/Big Ben/Ryan went in the 5th-6th (Ryan to me), Peyton in the 6th, Eli in the 7th, Stafford in the 8th or 9th.

-The early run on QBs pushed a lot of really nice players to the guys who chose to wait. I picked 11th, and in every mock draft I've done this offseason Andre Johnson is gone by pick 10 but there he was just waiting for me. So I grabbed Andre and Calvin with the 2nd pick in the 2nd round. Chris Johnson fell to 1.12, Mendenhall went middle 2nd (to the same guy who drafted Michael Turner 8th overall, so it kinda worked out), Hakeem Nicks went early 3rd.

-busting on guys' picks is roughly 18,828 times more fun live than on the computer. One owner went Antonio Gates in the 4th, then Jason Witten in the 5th. Everyone lost it, he said he was going to use Witten as his flex. I don't know he may win the league, but we all got a big laugh out of that one.

-the popular "sleepers" around here...

Mark Ingram- 5.11, to me

Felix Jones- 4.2, to me

Mario Manningham- 5.04

 

[goodoldalky]

I also play in a 14 team league. Drafted from the 11 hole.

Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

I did not get any of these players, even though I am high on them all with the exception of Moore, just being on an awful passing team as a rookie WR I think his ceiling is limited. I'd love to have him next year though.Manningham - 5.10 (about right, IMO, but I guess lots of people are high on him, I hoped to get him later)Moore - UndraftedIngram - 5.13 (surprising to me that he lasted that long)Stafford - 8.1Bradford - 7.2 (again I would have liked to get him later than this, but people are high on this guy)Felix - 3.7Here are my picks for the above rounds, just as an idea of who you will choose from in a 14 teamer:Round 1 - LeSean McCoyRound 2 - Matt ForteRound 3 - Dez BryantRound 4 - Ryan MathewsRound 5 - Jeremy MaclinRound 6 - Eli ManningRound 7 - Pierre ThomasRound 8 - James StarksA couple of other pearls: Backup RBs - People will absolutely devour these guys from rounds 8-10. Starks, Ringer, Jennings, Bush, Carter, Tate will all be gone before the end of the 10th in no particular order. If you are super high on one of these guys, I would try and grab him in round 8 if you can afford it. Otherwise, you can go in the 9th and 10th and hope that one of them is still there when your pick in the 10th comes around.QBs - The top notch guys are gone by the 4th usually. I prefer not to take a QB. Oftentimes, I like to wait and select my starting QB last. Often that gives me a round or two to grab other players while everyone has their starting QB but no backups yet. This year, I don't like that idea as much because there are lots of high potential QB2s who will get taken as a second QB in that timeframe, leaving me with leftovers if I wait. It is impossible to predict where Bradford, Freeman, Stafford, Flacco go (all before 8.8 in my draft). I did not like the idea of grabbing a QB in the 6th as that is usually a round or so early for me, but the difference between Eli and a guy like Kolb was pretty substantial. I think if you want to wait, Flacco is the best late value.WRs - Echo this point; awful midround depth. There is a substantial drop-off around WR 25 on my cheatsheet. Therefore, I loaded up on midround RBs during this timeframe and punched a WR lottery ticket or two at the end of the draft (think Brandon Gibson). There are too many muddy situations out there, and you will find that if you want a Lance Moore, MSW, Jordy Nelson, or Robert Meachem, it will come at the expense of missing out on one of the stud handcuffs like Tate or a reliable backup QB. If you are okay with Cam Newton as your QB2 (better not have Stafford), or have incredible RB depth, then maybe go with one of those guys, but I'd rather pass.TEs - These go in waves this year. Lots of talent but once the midrounds hit, they go fast. I decided to wait this year due to there still being solid players on the board. In my draft: Gates 4.9, Finley 4.11, Graham 5.2, Witten 5.5, Clark 6.5, Davis 6.8, Daniels 7.8, Gronkowski 7.9. I had targeted Daniels or Gronkowski in that order with 7.11. Both gone, so I decided to wait on TE and grabbed Pierre Thomas with pretty solid value at that pick for a RB4. I took Kellen Winslow with 9.11 and then Lance Kendricks in the 12th. You can probably wait pretty late and choose between Aaron Hernandez or Marcedes Lewis depending on your league. Kendricks will probably be around but I wasn't ballsy enough to make him my only TE. If you do and it works, though, you save yourself a roster spot for someone else. Hernandez sure sounds good but the fact that both Gronkowski and Hernandez are on the same team sort of boggles my mind, so I decided to pass.Best values in my draft. I am curious to see where these guys went in ya'lls drafts. Due to runs etc these guys lasted longer than I expected:Stevie Johnson 4.13Mark Ingram 5.13Kenny Britt 6.11Owen Daniels 7.8Malcom Floyd 7.12Danny Amendola 7.13Joe Flacco 8.8Jordy Nelson 8.13Pierre Garcon 8.14Davone Bess 12.3Steve Breaston 13.13Aaron Hernandez 14.8

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Had my ten team 20th year in existence draft Sunday. One thing that always stands out is that all the time we look at "experts" lists don't really add a lot of insight to how a live draft may go. To be fair there are about two people in my league that are just not prepared very well but otherwise these guys do their homework. They just may not all be scouring every forum on the net debating the experts lists. One thing though is many of the guys are risk averse as noted by some of the following picks.

Anyway, in my league all TDs are 6 so QBs were generally highly drafted anyway but this year the surge is even greater. Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers all gone by early round two. Manning fell to round four. And then the next group (Roth, Ryan, Stafford etc) didn't last much longer themselves.

CJ3, middle round two. McFaddin round 3, Hillis round 4, Gore round 4. Deangelo Williams I think went in the 7th.

Quite a few drafters went QB/WR first two rounds. I did myself and managed to get Rodgers, Calvin, DMC, Hillis and then Felix in the 5th. Nobody in my league feels very threatened by my team because they were for the most part down on all but the top five or six RBs.

 

[Tanner9919]

I also play in a 14 team league. Drafted from the 11 hole.

Where did Manningham, D Moore, Ingram, Stafford, Bradford, Felix, etc. go?

I did not get any of these players, even though I am high on them all with the exception of Moore, just being on an awful passing team as a rookie WR I think his ceiling is limited. I'd love to have him next year though.Manningham - 5.10 (about right, IMO, but I guess lots of people are high on him, I hoped to get him later)Moore - UndraftedIngram - 5.13 (surprising to me that he lasted that long)Stafford - 8.1Bradford - 7.2 (again I would have liked to get him later than this, but people are high on this guy)Felix - 3.7Here are my picks for the above rounds, just as an idea of who you will choose from in a 14 teamer:Round 1 - LeSean McCoyRound 2 - Matt ForteRound 3 - Dez BryantRound 4 - Ryan MathewsRound 5 - Jeremy MaclinRound 6 - Eli ManningRound 7 - Pierre ThomasRound 8 - James StarksA couple of other pearls: Backup RBs - People will absolutely devour these guys from rounds 8-10. Starks, Ringer, Jennings, Bush, Carter, Tate will all be gone before the end of the 10th in no particular order. If you are super high on one of these guys, I would try and grab him in round 8 if you can afford it. Otherwise, you can go in the 9th and 10th and hope that one of them is still there when your pick in the 10th comes around.QBs - The top notch guys are gone by the 4th usually. I prefer not to take a QB. Oftentimes, I like to wait and select my starting QB last. Often that gives me a round or two to grab other players while everyone has their starting QB but no backups yet. This year, I don't like that idea as much because there are lots of high potential QB2s who will get taken as a second QB in that timeframe, leaving me with leftovers if I wait. It is impossible to predict where Bradford, Freeman, Stafford, Flacco go (all before 8.8 in my draft). I did not like the idea of grabbing a QB in the 6th as that is usually a round or so early for me, but the difference between Eli and a guy like Kolb was pretty substantial. I think if you want to wait, Flacco is the best late value.WRs - Echo this point; awful midround depth. There is a substantial drop-off around WR 25 on my cheatsheet. Therefore, I loaded up on midround RBs during this timeframe and punched a WR lottery ticket or two at the end of the draft (think Brandon Gibson). There are too many muddy situations out there, and you will find that if you want a Lance Moore, MSW, Jordy Nelson, or Robert Meachem, it will come at the expense of missing out on one of the stud handcuffs like Tate or a reliable backup QB. If you are okay with Cam Newton as your QB2 (better not have Stafford), or have incredible RB depth, then maybe go with one of those guys, but I'd rather pass.TEs - These go in waves this year. Lots of talent but once the midrounds hit, they go fast. I decided to wait this year due to there still being solid players on the board. In my draft: Gates 4.9, Finley 4.11, Graham 5.2, Witten 5.5, Clark 6.5, Davis 6.8, Daniels 7.8, Gronkowski 7.9. I had targeted Daniels or Gronkowski in that order with 7.11. Both gone, so I decided to wait on TE and grabbed Pierre Thomas with pretty solid value at that pick for a RB4. I took Kellen Winslow with 9.11 and then Lance Kendricks in the 12th. You can probably wait pretty late and choose between Aaron Hernandez or Marcedes Lewis depending on your league. Kendricks will probably be around but I wasn't ballsy enough to make him my only TE. If you do and it works, though, you save yourself a roster spot for someone else. Hernandez sure sounds good but the fact that both Gronkowski and Hernandez are on the same team sort of boggles my mind, so I decided to pass.Best values in my draft. I am curious to see where these guys went in ya'lls drafts. Due to runs etc these guys lasted longer than I expected:Stevie Johnson 4.13Mark Ingram 5.13Kenny Britt 6.11Owen Daniels 7.8Malcom Floyd 7.12Danny Amendola 7.13Joe Flacco 8.8Jordy Nelson 8.13Pierre Garcon 8.14Davone Bess 12.3Steve Breaston 13.13Aaron Hernandez 14.8

Ryan Mathews is pure gold in round 4, same with S. Johnson. Jordy Nelson and P. Garcon in round 8? great value there, too!

 

[LawFitz]

Had my ten team 20th year in existence draft Sunday...I... managed to get Rodgers, Calvin, DMC, Hillis and then Felix in the 5th.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I don't know if this will happen in other live drafts but the idea of grabbing the 8th ranked RB with a top ten pick just doesn't happen in my league. The RBs that went in round one were Foster, Peterson, Charles, Rice and McCoy. Everyone else took a QB and one guy took Andre Johnson. Many of these drafters then jumped on the next 6 WRs and a couple more QBs. So RBs just plummeted and everyone knew they were going to get some good guys rounds three and four.

From what I can tell, the risk averse drafter after the above RBs were gone, seemed to view 6-20 as one giant crap shoot tier. And many of those drafters were willing to grab the M.Williams type WRs higher than that group of RBs.

I think people believe that backs are sharing time more and more and that by and large, the WRs are less likely to miss time.

Very interesting...