Hakeem Nicks risk/reward (1 Viewer)

[tsarc888]

where are you willing to take the risk on Hakeem Nicks this year? We know he's a top talent but the laundry list of injuries has piled up in his short career.

He's still only 25 years old and IF healthy, I could see easily see a top 5ish season in him. Where though? where is the right time to take this risk? I'm really wrestling with it. Thanks.

 

[Run It Up]

where are you willing to take the risk on Hakeem Nicks this year? We know he's a top talent but the laundry list of injuries has piled up in his short career.

He's still only 25 years old and IF healthy, I could see easily see a top 5ish season in him. Where though? where is the right time to take this risk? I'm really wrestling with it. Thanks.

I'm taking him where he falls, I think he is the highest upside WR3 in the pool this year.

Ive taken him as early as round 5 as my WR2.

I will regularly pass on Cruz and take Amendola instead with the intention of taking Nicks after the turn.

 

[shadyridr]

I dont think theres much risk. An injury to your 5th rd pick wr2 wont kill you

 

[msudaisy26]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

 

[Run It Up]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

I agree, top 5 is a lot to ask for with how good the elite WR talent is this year. But I do believe his ceiling is WR6-7, definitely top 10, well worth it for the price.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Hakeem Nicks has the 5th most fantasy points through age 24 in history, behind Moss, Fitzgerald, John Jefferson, and Percy Harvin.

Not that anyone should read too much into that, (Nicks entered the league very young; he falls down to 41st if you look at fantasy points through four seasons), It's just a fun and unexpected stat. If you prefer more of a compromise, Nicks ranks 13th in points per game through age 24.

 

[tsarc888]

I didn't see the game, but heard words describing him tonight such as "gimpy" and "sluggish"

 

[Judge Smails]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

 

[SameSongNDance]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

In the late 5th/early 6th you'd be getting pretty good value for what is arguably top 10 talent. Clearly however, talent means nothing if you can't stay on the field to showcase it. Amazingly, he's never missed more than 3 games in a season but that doesn't account for the fact that he's seemingly never 100%. If you can somehow grab him as a WR3 however, the risk is very much worth it due to his crazy upside. If he falls to me late I'd probably scoop him up but I would not want to lean on him.

I also watched the game tonight and I don't think he was even remotely going at full speed/trying. Either he can't or he's just taking it easy coming off an injury and going into his contract year. I'm more inclined to assume the latter.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

Cruz and Randle won't take any more looks as Cruz as Mario Man took in 2010 and he was a top 6 WR. That shouldn't scare you away. I do believe NYG runs about 10% more of the time this year though. His ceiling has more to do with himself than what is going on around him.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

In the late 5th/early 6th you'd be getting pretty good value for what is arguably top 10 talent. Clearly however, talent means nothing if you can't stay on the field to showcase it. Amazingly, he's never missed more than 3 games in a season but that doesn't account for the fact that he's seemingly never 100%. If you can somehow grab him as a WR3 however, the risk is very much worth it due to his crazy upside. If he falls to me late I'd probably scoop him up but I would not want to lean on him.

I also watched the game tonight and I don't think he was even remotely going at full speed/trying. Either he can't or he's just taking it easy coming off an injury and going into his contract year. I'm more inclined to assume the latter.

I get the feeling heart and effort are not one of his strong suits. I know nothing of him, I just know he looks like he's taking some games off. That coupled with what I perceive as a lack of toughness (heart) I just have fallen out of love. I'll take him anywhere that I feel he presents value and upside but I'm going to worry every week I put him in the line up. Too many partial games or him running at 70% effort.

 

[Grahamburn]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

In the late 5th/early 6th you'd be getting pretty good value for what is arguably top 10 talent. Clearly however, talent means nothing if you can't stay on the field to showcase it. Amazingly, he's never missed more than 3 games in a season but that doesn't account for the fact that he's seemingly never 100%. If you can somehow grab him as a WR3 however, the risk is very much worth it due to his crazy upside. If he falls to me late I'd probably scoop him up but I would not want to lean on him.

I also watched the game tonight and I don't think he was even remotely going at full speed/trying. Either he can't or he's just taking it easy coming off an injury and going into his contract year. I'm more inclined to assume the latter.

Ho Hum 2 for 40 with his shirt untucked in his first preseason game. Hakeem Nicks knows what his contract situation is. I think we can expect full effort when the real games start. He's this season.

 

[RushHour]

If you want the headache, good luck to you. There's a decent chance you can't stand the sight of his name on your roster by mid season.

 

[FF Ninja]

where are you willing to take the risk on Hakeem Nicks this year? We know he's a top talent but the laundry list of injuries has piled up in his short career.

He's still only 25 years old and IF healthy, I could see easily see a top 5ish season in him. Where though? where is the right time to take this risk? I'm really wrestling with it. Thanks.

I'm taking him where he falls, I think he is the highest upside WR3 in the pool this year.

Ive taken him as early as round 5 as my WR2.

I will regularly pass on Cruz and take Amendola instead with the intention of taking Nicks after the turn.

With an ADP of WR18, the only way he's anyone's WR3 is if they're doing Waldman's upside down draft.

I like Nicks this year, but I doubt I land him in any snake drafts. He's going on average in the early 5th round and I'm planning on taking other guys there. If they're gone for some reason then I'll definitely take a risk on Nicks. He has the upside of top 10, but I think his injury risk is properly baked into his value at 51st overall.

 

[Run It Up]

where are you willing to take the risk on Hakeem Nicks this year? We know he's a top talent but the laundry list of injuries has piled up in his short career.

He's still only 25 years old and IF healthy, I could see easily see a top 5ish season in him. Where though? where is the right time to take this risk? I'm really wrestling with it. Thanks.

I'm taking him where he falls, I think he is the highest upside WR3 in the pool this year.

Ive taken him as early as round 5 as my WR2.

I will regularly pass on Cruz and take Amendola instead with the intention of taking Nicks after the turn.

With an ADP of WR18, the only way he's anyone's WR3 is if they're doing Waldman's upside down draft.

I like Nicks this year, but I doubt I land him in any snake drafts. He's going on average in the early 5th round and I'm planning on taking other guys there. If they're gone for some reason then I'll definitely take a risk on Nicks. He has the upside of top 10, but I think his injury risk is properly baked into his value at 51st overall.

WR2, splitting hairs. When I posted that he was going in the mid/late 5th, which for me was WR3.

Got him in an auction draft Saturday night for 3% of my budget as my WR3.

 

[Sabertooth]

His reward is top 5 WR. I think people forget just how good he really is because he hasn't shown much in the past few seasons. He could approach double digit touchdowns this season. I think 75, 1100, 8 is a pretty reasonable line stat line for him. He has a very real chance to meet those numbers.

 

[Grahamburn]

His reward is top 5 WR. I think people forget just how good he really is because he hasn't shown much in the past few seasons. He could approach double digit touchdowns this season. I think 75, 1100, 8 is a pretty reasonable line stat line for him. He has a very real chance to meet those numbers.

Just last season.

 

[FF Ninja]

where are you willing to take the risk on Hakeem Nicks this year? We know he's a top talent but the laundry list of injuries has piled up in his short career.

He's still only 25 years old and IF healthy, I could see easily see a top 5ish season in him. Where though? where is the right time to take this risk? I'm really wrestling with it. Thanks.

I'm taking him where he falls, I think he is the highest upside WR3 in the pool this year.

Ive taken him as early as round 5 as my WR2.

I will regularly pass on Cruz and take Amendola instead with the intention of taking Nicks after the turn.

With an ADP of WR18, the only way he's anyone's WR3 is if they're doing Waldman's upside down draft.

I like Nicks this year, but I doubt I land him in any snake drafts. He's going on average in the early 5th round and I'm planning on taking other guys there. If they're gone for some reason then I'll definitely take a risk on Nicks. He has the upside of top 10, but I think his injury risk is properly baked into his value at 51st overall.

WR2, splitting hairs. When I posted that he was going in the mid/late 5th, which for me was WR3.

Got him in an auction draft Saturday night for 3% of my budget as my WR3.

That's highway robbery. Congrats. His AAV is around 8%. I'd have overbid you

 

[ODannyBoy]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

In the late 5th/early 6th you'd be getting pretty good value for what is arguably top 10 talent. Clearly however, talent means nothing if you can't stay on the field to showcase it. Amazingly, he's never missed more than 3 games in a season but that doesn't account for the fact that he's seemingly never 100%. If you can somehow grab him as a WR3 however, the risk is very much worth it due to his crazy upside. If he falls to me late I'd probably scoop him up but I would not want to lean on him.

I also watched the game tonight and I don't think he was even remotely going at full speed/trying. Either he can't or he's just taking it easy coming off an injury and going into his contract year. I'm more inclined to assume the latter.

I get the feeling heart and effort are not one of his strong suits. I know nothing of him, I just know he looks like he's taking some games off. That coupled with what I perceive as a lack of toughness (heart) I just have fallen out of love. I'll take him anywhere that I feel he presents value and upside but I'm going to worry every week I put him in the line up. Too many partial games or him running at 70% effort.

I think you are misreading it somewhat. He plays hurt all the time. That is heart, effort and toughness. He's just hurt all the time...which means he's injury prone. Big difference.

It's a contract year and these are fake games. In 2014, teams aren't going to give two ####s about him coasting through the 2013 preseason if he's healthy and has a good regular season. He's banking on himself. And he's being very careful with his body. On some teams he wouldn't even play in the preseason because they wouldn't want to risk it. But he plays for a team with a bit different attitude (due to Coughlin).

I think he's coasting a bit right now. But I think he knows he has to produce when it counts to get his pay day. There is some risk that he tries to be too clever and tries to manage his injury risk within a regular season game. Coughlin won't like that and Randle gives Coughlin some leverage. So I don't think it's likely to happen, but I have to say it could.

 

[stbugs]

I noticed the coasting as well and I used to like him, but I doubt I get him this year. I had him in one league, drafted him real late as a rookie and he was a great keeper for such a late round until 2012, where he killed me.

I see top 5 mentioned above and sorry, that isn't his ceiling anymore. In 2010, he finished 8th according to FBGs and missed 3 games. He's missed 1, 2, 3 and 3 games in his 4 year career, so pro-rating to 16 is meaningless. That said, even in his best year, his total points wouldn't have been top 10 in 2012. In 2012, there was no Demaryius, no Julio, no AJ Green, Cruz, Decker and Bryant were rookies, Welker was coming off of ACL surgery and had his worst year in NE, Marshall was in his first year in Miami and had his worst year since his rookie year, Vincent Jackson missed 11 games and heck, even Calvin finished 6th.

So, that said, anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

 

[MAC_32]

I like him somewhere between pick 45 and 60, potential reward justifies the risk once getting to that area of the draft.

 

[tsarc888]

I like him somewhere between pick 45 and 60, potential reward justifies the risk once getting to that area of the draft.

I took him last night with pick 66. Couldn't pass up at that point.

 

[FF Ninja]

I noticed the coasting as well and I used to like him, but I doubt I get him this year. I had him in one league, drafted him real late as a rookie and he was a great keeper for such a late round until 2012, where he killed me.

I see top 5 mentioned above and sorry, that isn't his ceiling anymore. In 2010, he finished 8th according to FBGs and missed 3 games. He's missed 1, 2, 3 and 3 games in his 4 year career, so pro-rating to 16 is meaningless. That said, even in his best year, his total points wouldn't have been top 10 in 2012. In 2012, there was no Demaryius, no Julio, no AJ Green, Cruz, Decker and Bryant were rookies, Welker was coming off of ACL surgery and had his worst year in NE, Marshall was in his first year in Miami and had his worst year since his rookie year, Vincent Jackson missed 11 games and heck, even Calvin finished 6th.

So, that said, anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

To say his ceiling of top 5 is ludicrous is, well, ludicrous. You reference his 2010 season and look at his total points, but what you miss was that he did that in only 13 games as a second year WR. He was on pace for 97 receptions, 1300 yards, and 13-14 TDs. If the guy is healthy, there's no reason he couldn't surpass someone like Demaryius who will likely see less targets this year.

In 2011, he struggled through injuries but when the playoffs rolled around he pulled it together, posting 28/444/4 in four games. Those are elite numbers.

So yeah, his ceiling is easily top 5. I'm not saying that is likely, but if we're just talking about his ceiling then we should not ignore 2010 and 2011 just because 2012 was so bad. If he can put together 16 injury-free games, it should surprise no one if he ends up with 90/1350/12. However, I'd be shocked if he's injury free for 16 games. If I draft him, I'll be planning on starting him for 10 games with top 10 ppg numbers - and hoping that some of those starts are in weeks 14-16.

 

[habsfan]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

 

[Tau837]

anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

IMO your statement that there is "no way" he can finish above the 6 WRs you named without injury is more ludicrous than saying Nicks has top 5 upside.

In non-PPR, he was #1 in ppg among all WRs in 2010.

In non-PPR, he was #14 in ppg among all WRs in 2011. However, averaging in the postseason games for Nicks and the 13 guys who finished the regular season above him elevates Nicks to #6 in ppg, exactly 0.04 ppg out of the top 5, and that is counting Britt's 2+ game performance ahead of him:

17.48 Calvin

14.97 Britt (2+ games)

12.95 Nelson

12.43 Welker

12.12 Colston

12.08 Nicks

12.04 Cruz

11.82 Fitzgerald

11.56 Smith

11.31 Harvin

10.92 Jennings

10.84 Robinson

10.78 Jones

10.75 White

Sure, those postseason points didn't count in most fantasy leagues, but we're talking about his potential here, and those games certainly are relevant to assessing his potential for playing at a top 5 level.

Last season was a down season, so there is no guarantee that he will revert to 2010-2011 form, but it is certainly possible.

 

[Tau837]

I noticed the coasting as well and I used to like him, but I doubt I get him this year. I had him in one league, drafted him real late as a rookie and he was a great keeper for such a late round until 2012, where he killed me.

I see top 5 mentioned above and sorry, that isn't his ceiling anymore. In 2010, he finished 8th according to FBGs and missed 3 games. He's missed 1, 2, 3 and 3 games in his 4 year career, so pro-rating to 16 is meaningless. That said, even in his best year, his total points wouldn't have been top 10 in 2012. In 2012, there was no Demaryius, no Julio, no AJ Green, Cruz, Decker and Bryant were rookies, Welker was coming off of ACL surgery and had his worst year in NE, Marshall was in his first year in Miami and had his worst year since his rookie year, Vincent Jackson missed 11 games and heck, even Calvin finished 6th.

So, that said, anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

To say his ceiling of top 5 is ludicrous is, well, ludicrous. You reference his 2010 season and look at his total points, but what you miss was that he did that in only 13 games as a second year WR. He was on pace for 97 receptions, 1300 yards, and 13-14 TDs. If the guy is healthy, there's no reason he couldn't surpass someone like Demaryius who will likely see less targets this year.

In 2011, he struggled through injuries but when the playoffs rolled around he pulled it together, posting 28/444/4 in four games. Those are elite numbers.

So yeah, his ceiling is easily top 5. I'm not saying that is likely, but if we're just talking about his ceiling then we should not ignore 2010 and 2011 just because 2012 was so bad. If he can put together 16 injury-free games, it should surprise no one if he ends up with 90/1350/12. However, I'd be shocked if he's injury free for 16 games. If I draft him, I'll be planning on starting him for 10 games with top 10 ppg numbers - and hoping that some of those starts are in weeks 14-16.

 

[RushHour]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

yeah people tend to underrate this. Despite Nicks fitting the mold of a #1 receiver more than Cruz physically, it is indisputable that Cruz in the #1 option for Eli on this team and the top fantasy option. To me, this limits his upside considerably. There have been so many times over the past 2 seasons when I (as a Nicks owner) saw a receiver with an "8" on his back catch a TD pass or make a big play, I did a fist pump, then realised it was it was "80", not "88".....Cruz.....over and over again.

 

[Run It Up]

Except thats only been true the one year missed 3 games and played another 6 injured. When healthy they were very clearly 1a/1b. The Cruz/Nicks situation is very similar to the White/Julio situation.

Cruz (White) will produce top 15 numbers, Nicks (Julio) has a higher ceiling. The difference is you get Nicks a round or two later. Nicks has outplayed Cruz even while hurt.

This is beginning to sound dangerously similar to the Darren Mcfadden argument.

 

[RushHour]

Except thats only been true the one year missed 3 games and played anithrr 6 injured. When healthy they were very clearly 1a/1b last year

I suppose we disagree on that. I would say that Cruz is definitely 1 and Nicks 2. Not in talent or ability necessarily, but Cruz is Eli's first option/security blanket. If both of them were 100% healthy, I'd rather own Cruz all day.

 

[ponchsox]

I think Nicks is undervalued this year. If he can play 14-16 games he will outperform his ADP by a pretty good margin. This guy was drafted as a stud last year but dissapointed many.

If he was on your team last year, yes he killed you, but letting emotion affect your draft decisions is a huge mistake IMO. Each year is different.

 

[Run It Up]

Except thats only been true the one year missed 3 games and played another 6 injured. When healthy they were very clearly 1a/1b.

I suppose we disagree on that. I would say that Cruz is definitely 1 and Nicks 2. Not in talent or ability necessarily, but Cruz is Eli's first option/security blanket. If both of them were 100% healthy, I'd rather own Cruz all day.

To be honest, I would to. I feel the same way about White and Julio in redrafts I would rather have the compiler than the high upside guy.

The difference is before White was injured he was going within like 3 picks of Julio, Nicks is going a round or more behind Cruz. Its impossible for me to land Danny Amendola and Victor Cruz, its actually very easy to land Danny Amendola and Hakeem Nicks.

I recognize their upsides, I just disagree that either of them are the preferred WR, they play completely different roles.

 

[msudaisy26]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

Cruz and Randle won't take any more looks as Cruz as Mario Man took in 2010 and he was a top 6 WR. That shouldn't scare you away. I do believe NYG runs about 10% more of the time this year though. His ceiling has more to do with himself than what is going on around him.

You mean the 2010 when Cruz played in 3 games with 0 catches?

 

[SameSongNDance]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

yeah people tend to underrate this. Despite Nicks fitting the mold of a #1 receiver more than Cruz physically, it is indisputable that Cruz in the #1 option for Eli on this team and the top fantasy option. To me, this limits his upside considerably. There have been so many times over the past 2 seasons when I (as a Nicks owner) saw a receiver with an "8" on his back catch a TD pass or make a big play, I did a fist pump, then realised it was it was "80", not "88".....Cruz.....over and over again.

It's far from indisputable. Cruz averaged around 8.9 targets through 16 games last year where as Nicks averaged 8.3 all the while being far less than 100%.

In Cruz's breakout year in 2011, he averaged 8.1 to Nicks' 8.9, which is more in line with what I'd expect.

They cannibalize each other for sure, but without a larger sample size it's hard to say who is 1A and who is 1B when it comes to Eli's affection.

 

[RushHour]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

yeah people tend to underrate this. Despite Nicks fitting the mold of a #1 receiver more than Cruz physically, it is indisputable that Cruz in the #1 option for Eli on this team and the top fantasy option. To me, this limits his upside considerably. There have been so many times over the past 2 seasons when I (as a Nicks owner) saw a receiver with an "8" on his back catch a TD pass or make a big play, I did a fist pump, then realised it was it was "80", not "88".....Cruz.....over and over again.

It's far from indisputable. Cruz averaged around 8.9 targets through 16 games last year where as Nicks averaged 8.3 all the while being far less than 100%.

In Cruz's breakout year in 2011, he averaged 8.1 to Nicks' 8.9, which is more in line with what I'd expect.

They cannibalize each other for sure, but without a larger sample size it's hard to say who is 1A and who is 1B when it comes to Eli's affection.

I'm just going by what I see when I watch the games. Maybe Cruz is getting the higher value targets. It doesn't really matter - if you see value in Nicks, that's fine. I just think you still have to draft him fairly high and I'd rather take my chances elsewhere. I've owned Nicks for the last 2 years and, no matter what the stats say, or how few games he's actually missed, rarely did I actually want him on my team over that time, and no one in my league wanted to trade for him either. There's still a fair bit of downside there.

 

[SameSongNDance]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

yeah people tend to underrate this. Despite Nicks fitting the mold of a #1 receiver more than Cruz physically, it is indisputable that Cruz in the #1 option for Eli on this team and the top fantasy option. To me, this limits his upside considerably. There have been so many times over the past 2 seasons when I (as a Nicks owner) saw a receiver with an "8" on his back catch a TD pass or make a big play, I did a fist pump, then realised it was it was "80", not "88".....Cruz.....over and over again.

It's far from indisputable. Cruz averaged around 8.9 targets through 16 games last year where as Nicks averaged 8.3 all the while being far less than 100%.

In Cruz's breakout year in 2011, he averaged 8.1 to Nicks' 8.9, which is more in line with what I'd expect.

They cannibalize each other for sure, but without a larger sample size it's hard to say who is 1A and who is 1B when it comes to Eli's affection.

I'm just going by what I see when I watch the games. Maybe Cruz is getting the higher value targets. It doesn't really matter - if you see value in Nicks, that's fine. I just think you still have to draft him fairly high and I'd rather take my chances elsewhere. I've owned Nicks for the last 2 years and, no matter what the stats say, or how few games he's actually missed, rarely did I actually want him on my team over that time, and no one in my league wanted to trade for him either. There's still a fair bit of downside there.

I'm a NJ native and former Cruz/Nicks owner so I've watched my fair share of NYG games. I just don't think it's nearly as clear cut as you do when pertaining to looks and the raw stats back me up. When they're both healthy, they roughly see the same amount of looks on a per game basis.

I'm not disagreeing with the fact that Nicks carries a fair amount of risk though, I'm well aware.

 

[habsfan]

I don't dislike either one. I just don't see either getting fed to an extent that supports a Top 5 ceiling. It's ability and opportunity...

 

[BustedKnuckles]

i have 2 simple rules when i draft...no head cases and no injury prone players...period

 

[Tau837]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

See 2011, as broken down in my previous post. Cruz and Nicks averaged almost identical numbers when including both regular season and postseason games. One could argue that we shouldn't count the first game or two for Cruz due to usage, which would elevate him above Nicks... but the fact remains that Nicks was extremely close to top 5 using his full performance.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

Cruz and Randle won't take any more looks as Cruz as Mario Man took in 2010 and he was a top 6 WR. That shouldn't scare you away. I do believe NYG runs about 10% more of the time this year though. His ceiling has more to do with himself than what is going on around him.

You mean the 2010 when Cruz played in 3 games with 0 catches?

Obviously I misquoted the year. Did you not pick that up?

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

In addition to injury potential, the other thing that has happened to Nicks is Victor Cruz. I'm not sure how Nicks easily has a ceiling that high if Cruz puts up numbers in the neighbourhood of what he's expected to. To come to fruition this would have to look like a Julio Jones / Roddy situation only better (and on considerably fewer pass attempts).

yeah people tend to underrate this. Despite Nicks fitting the mold of a #1 receiver more than Cruz physically, it is indisputable that Cruz in the #1 option for Eli on this team and the top fantasy option. To me, this limits his upside considerably. There have been so many times over the past 2 seasons when I (as a Nicks owner) saw a receiver with an "8" on his back catch a TD pass or make a big play, I did a fist pump, then realised it was it was "80", not "88".....Cruz.....over and over again.

Well, who can argue with misplaced fist pumps?

 

[Grahamburn]

i have 2 simple rules when i draft...no head cases and no injury prone players...period

How do you even field a full roster?

 

[Sabertooth]

i have 2 simple rules when i draft...no head cases and no injury prone players...period

How do you even field a full roster?

 

[stbugs]

anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

IMO your statement that there is "no way" he can finish above the 6 WRs you named without injury is more ludicrous than saying Nicks has top 5 upside.

In non-PPR, he was #1 in ppg among all WRs in 2010.

In non-PPR, he was #14 in ppg among all WRs in 2011. However, averaging in the postseason games for Nicks and the 13 guys who finished the regular season above him elevates Nicks to #6 in ppg, exactly 0.04 ppg out of the top 5, and that is counting Britt's 2+ game performance ahead of him:

17.48 Calvin

14.97 Britt (2+ games)

12.95 Nelson

12.43 Welker

12.12 Colston

12.08 Nicks

12.04 Cruz

11.82 Fitzgerald

11.56 Smith

11.31 Harvin

10.92 Jennings

10.84 Robinson

10.78 Jones

10.75 White

Sure, those postseason points didn't count in most fantasy leagues, but we're talking about his potential here, and those games certainly are relevant to assessing his potential for playing at a top 5 level.

Last season was a down season, so there is no guarantee that he will revert to 2010-2011 form, but it is certainly possible.

OK, well now we are including playoff games and pro-rating a guy who has never had a 16 game season to almost get him into the top 5 in 2011. Why don't we include Vernon Davis' 2011 playoff games to see where he sits? Because it is cherry picking. VD had 800 yards and 6 TDs in 16 games and 300 yards and 2TDs in 2 playoff games.

Nicks played 15 games in 2011 and you want to add in playoff games? He averaged 5-75-0.47TDs in 15 regular season games and 6-112-1.33TDs in 3 playoff games and you are really going to try and include that in his average?

Again, there are a lot more healthy stud WRs in 2013 than there were in 2010 and even 2011. I don't see Julio, AJ Green, AJohnson, Demaryius, Bryant and Marshall in your 2011 list and you still think your manipulated numbers to make Nicks top 6 is relevant?

Sorry, keep thinking he is top 5 ceiling based on a season 3 years ago and 2 playoff games in 2011. That is history. If you didn't watch 2012 and didn't watch the preseason game and didn't read my post about all of the guys who are missing from 2010/2011 that are relevant now in 2013, have fun with Nicks. I will stick with my opinion that a top 5 ceiling in 2013 for Nicks is ludicrous. The only way it happens is if a bunch of guys get hurt, including Cruz. Hard to be top 5 when you aren't top 1 on your own team.

 

[Tau837]

anyone saying Nicks' ceiling is top 5 is ludicrous. Barring injuries, no way Nicks finishes above Calvin, Demaryius, Julio, Marshall, Green, Bryant, and most likely 2 or 3 of the 4 others, not to mention AJohnson, Roddy, etc. If he regains his 2010 form, he could be a solid WR2 and maybe even get into the back end of the top 10, but it would take 16 games (not likely) and a lot of injuries for him to even sniff the top 5.

IMO your statement that there is "no way" he can finish above the 6 WRs you named without injury is more ludicrous than saying Nicks has top 5 upside.

In non-PPR, he was #1 in ppg among all WRs in 2010.

In non-PPR, he was #14 in ppg among all WRs in 2011. However, averaging in the postseason games for Nicks and the 13 guys who finished the regular season above him elevates Nicks to #6 in ppg, exactly 0.04 ppg out of the top 5, and that is counting Britt's 2+ game performance ahead of him:

17.48 Calvin

14.97 Britt (2+ games)

12.95 Nelson

12.43 Welker

12.12 Colston

12.08 Nicks

12.04 Cruz

11.82 Fitzgerald

11.56 Smith

11.31 Harvin

10.92 Jennings

10.84 Robinson

10.78 Jones

10.75 White

Sure, those postseason points didn't count in most fantasy leagues, but we're talking about his potential here, and those games certainly are relevant to assessing his potential for playing at a top 5 level.

Last season was a down season, so there is no guarantee that he will revert to 2010-2011 form, but it is certainly possible.

OK, well now we are including playoff games and pro-rating a guy who has never had a 16 game season to almost get him into the top 5 in 2011. Why don't we include Vernon Davis' 2011 playoff games to see where he sits? Because it is cherry picking. VD had 800 yards and 6 TDs in 16 games and 300 yards and 2TDs in 2 playoff games.

Nicks played 15 games in 2011 and you want to add in playoff games? He averaged 5-75-0.47TDs in 15 regular season games and 6-112-1.33TDs in 3 playoff games and you are really going to try and include that in his average?

Again, there are a lot more healthy stud WRs in 2013 than there were in 2010 and even 2011. I don't see Julio, AJ Green, AJohnson, Demaryius, Bryant and Marshall in your 2011 list and you still think your manipulated numbers to make Nicks top 6 is relevant?

Sorry, keep thinking he is top 5 ceiling based on a season 3 years ago and 2 playoff games in 2011. That is history. If you didn't watch 2012 and didn't watch the preseason game and didn't read my post about all of the guys who are missing from 2010/2011 that are relevant now in 2013, have fun with Nicks. I will stick with my opinion that a top 5 ceiling in 2013 for Nicks is ludicrous. The only way it happens is if a bunch of guys get hurt, including Cruz. Hard to be top 5 when you aren't top 1 on your own team.

I did not manipulate any numbers. They are real numbers, and I clearly explained how I calculated them.

Are you trying to honestly assess Nicks' potential of making the top 5? If so, why ignore any games? There is no need to limit the discussion to games that count in fantasy leagues when attempting to project forward. Heck, if we were going to do that, we'd need to eliminate week 17 for most fantasy leagues, but typically we don't do that.

Taken as a whole, Nicks' performance in 2011 was top 5 caliber. Playoff games don't count in fantasy, but they count in real life and help give a more complete picture of his potential. Do you think for some reason that the fact that he had a great stretch in the 2011 postseason -- with Cruz also playing -- that he can never duplicate that kind of performance in the regular season? I don't see any basis to believe such a notion.

Vernon Davis doesn't have anything to do with this conversation, which is about WRs. However, I agree that Davis's strong postseason in 2011 gives a more comprehensive illustration of his high ceiling potential.

Also, my post was completely neutral in tone and presented a fact-based argument that IMO shows that it is *possible* Nicks could finish in the top 5 without a slew of injuries to other top WRs. You can disagree without the "if you don't watch games" argument and condescension.

 

[[icon]]

Never underestimate the hunger of a player in a Contract Year.

 

[msudaisy26]

I would take him in the 5th but I don't see top 5, I think the Giants run game will be good and Cruz, and Randle will take too many looks to be top 5. I think his ceiling is top 10 to 14 range

Cruz and Randle won't take any more looks as Cruz as Mario Man took in 2010 and he was a top 6 WR. That shouldn't scare you away. I do believe NYG runs about 10% more of the time this year though. His ceiling has more to do with himself than what is going on around him.

You mean the 2010 when Cruz played in 3 games with 0 catches?

Obviously I misquoted the year. Did you not pick that up?

Obviously you missed the fact that in 2011, Manning threw for a career best 4700 yards that year and hasn't been within 700 yards of that any other year, Cruz also didn't really play a lot the first 2 games that year and Mario missed 4 games as well. It was the perfect storm for Nicks to be 6th that year, he has the talent to be in the tier right after Dez, Julio, Green etc. but his injuries and team prevents him from doing 95 percent of the time. His ceiling this year is 10th, realistically he will be around 20 to 25 because he will miss or pull out of game early 2 to 4 times and Eli will throw up 2 clunker games like he does every year.

 

[Jed]

After watching tonights game I don't see it. He can glide into seams, and Eli hit him in stride for 2 20 yarders, but I just don't see him getting separation. You'll overpay for the name.

In the late 5th/early 6th you'd be getting pretty good value for what is arguably top 10 talent. Clearly however, talent means nothing if you can't stay on the field to showcase it. Amazingly, he's never missed more than 3 games in a season but that doesn't account for the fact that he's seemingly never 100%. If you can somehow grab him as a WR3 however, the risk is very much worth it due to his crazy upside. If he falls to me late I'd probably scoop him up but I would not want to lean on him.

I also watched the game tonight and I don't think he was even remotely going at full speed/trying. Either he can't or he's just taking it easy coming off an injury and going into his contract year. I'm more inclined to assume the latter.

I get the feeling heart and effort are not one of his strong suits. I know nothing of him, I just know he looks like he's taking some games off. That coupled with what I perceive as a lack of toughness (heart) I just have fallen out of love. I'll take him anywhere that I feel he presents value and upside but I'm going to worry every week I put him in the line up. Too many partial games or him running at 70% effort.

You can say that again. He is all heart, and has played through brutal injuries when he's been needed (like the the Superbowl).

 

[Jed]

Never underestimate the hunger of a player in a Contract Year.

Exactly.

If he's loafing in preseason it's because he doesn't want a Keller situation. He will be hard core when the real games start.

 

[SameSongNDance]

IMO, there's no arguing his top 5 potential. At the very least, as Just Win Baby has been highlighting, Nicks was the #1 fantasy WR on a PPG average (13 games) in 2010 (13.2, standard scoring).

The "new talent" entering the league is not a statistical argument, and by just a quick glance I can tell you the PPG average of the top WRs in 2012 closely mirrors that of 2010. The only question mark surrounding him pertains to durability IMO, which is why he's being drafted as a mid/low-end WR2 and not a WR1.

Obviously you missed the fact that in 2011, Manning threw for a career best 4700 yards that year and hasn't been within 700 yards of that any other year, Cruz also didn't really play a lot the first 2 games that year and Mario missed 4 games as well. It was the perfect storm for Nicks to be 6th that year, he has the talent to be in the tier right after Dez, Julio, Green etc. but his injuries and team prevents him from doing 95 percent of the time. His ceiling this year is 10th, realistically he will be around 20 to 25 because he will miss or pull out of game early 2 to 4 times and Eli will throw up 2 clunker games like he does every year.

You made up a percentage and that's all conjecture. If he stays healthy, he has proven that his ceiling is finishing as the #1 overall WR.

 

[msudaisy26]

IMO, there's no arguing his top 5 potential. At the very least, as Just Win Baby has been highlighting, Nicks was the #1 fantasy WR on a PPG average (13 games) in 2010 (13.2, standard scoring).

The "new talent" entering the league is not a statistical argument, and by just a quick glance I can tell you the PPG average of the top WRs in 2012 closely mirrors that of 2010. The only question mark surrounding him pertains to durability IMO, which is why he's being drafted as a mid/low-end WR2 and not a WR1.

Obviously you missed the fact that in 2011, Manning threw for a career best 4700 yards that year and hasn't been within 700 yards of that any other year, Cruz also didn't really play a lot the first 2 games that year and Mario missed 4 games as well. It was the perfect storm for Nicks to be 6th that year, he has the talent to be in the tier right after Dez, Julio, Green etc. but his injuries and team prevents him from doing 95 percent of the time. His ceiling this year is 10th, realistically he will be around 20 to 25 because he will miss or pull out of game early 2 to 4 times and Eli will throw up 2 clunker games like he does every year.

You made up a percentage and that's all conjecture. If he stays healthy, he has proven that his ceiling is finishing as the #1 overall WR.

Yes I made up the percentage, who cares the odds of him being the number 1 overall receiver are worse than 5 percent. He won't be top 10 this year