Half court shot vs. 2 years in jail? (1 Viewer)

[jon_mx]

Prison sex or $10 million. Win-win.

 

[Insein]

Reminds me of Escape From LA

That was such an awful scene.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.

...No, I think it's 10 attemptS at 50-1.

50-1 appears to be for a single shot by an adult who did not play highschool basketball within the previous five years. It's probably combined male and female.

If you're a male who is a decent shooter with good range, I'm thinking you should hit a half-court shot more than 10% of the time. So if you got ten tries, you should make at least one of them at least 65% of the time.

(If you were 50-1 on each try, you'd have about an 18% of hitting at least one.)

But each chance is an independent chance. Your second, third, etc. chance does not increase based on a previous try. If your first chance is 50-1, aren't all of them? Am I thinking about that wrong?

Assuming each chance is an independent event, if each attempt is a 50-1 shot (1.9608%), the odds of making at least one is 1-((1-1.9608%)^10) = 17.9652%.

 

[ghostguy123]

Maybe an NBA size guy used to hucking it could make 1/10, but even most athletic people would not IMO...

5% chance 1/20 (60% chance of missing all ten)

4% chance 1/25 (66% chance of missing all ten)

3% chance 1/33 (74% chance of missing all ten)

No chance.

Dont you watch NBA all star weekend? When they get to the half courters, in just about all cases they hit it in less than 10 tries, and it is 3 different people doing it.

A half courter isn;t some terribly impossible thing for people with ANY basketball skills.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

I hate you guys.

 

[jon_mx]

A half court shot is really not that hard. I would think hitting 10 percent is reallistic with even a modest amount of practice. Shoot it straight on and you increase the chance of a bank. Usually you can keep the shot reasonable online, distance is the biggest variable. I just threw up a hook shot from NBA three point range last week and made it on my first attempt.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Pre-family I would have tried it.

Post-family not so much.

 

[the moops]

I just threw up a hook shot from NBA three point range last week and made it on my first attempt.

No you didnt

 

[belljr]

Pre-family I would have tried it.

Post-family not so much.

funny I'm the exact opposite

 

[Nugget]

Pre-family I would have tried it.

Post-family not so much.

I am thinking the opposite. I could use the money or a 2 year nap.

 

[jon_mx]

I just threw up a hook shot from NBA three point range last week and made it on my first attempt.

No you didnt

Yeah I did. Was playing 21 and I needed a three to win. Two guys were guarding me against shooting a three. The only way I could get off a shot without getting block was to throw up a hook, so i did. It went in. Pure luck, but funny as heck.

 

[Jayrod]

I'd do it.

But then again, I'm a baller.

 

[EYLive]

I'd do it. 10 shots is a bunch.

^ This is why our prisons are overcrowded. Eager half court shooters.

 

[Das Boot]

I'd do it. 10 shots is a bunch.

^ This is why our prisons are overcrowded. Eager half court shooters.

But I only started out shooting 3's.

Turns out it's a gateway shot.

 

[Tom Servo]

No ####### way.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Not a chance I would try that. Not even with practice. Average NBA player would be hard pressed to make that

no they wouldnt

 

[top dog]

Do you have to call "glass"?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Also in on trying this. Always messed around with half court shots in grade school and high school. I think 1 in 10 is doable

 

[17seconds]

I bet I could throw this football over them mountains right now

 

[Short Corner]

Shooting a basketball is one of the least athletic skills there is in professional sports. Undefended and the freedom to step into the shot, the line wouldn't be a factor. Each successive miss is an opportunity to calibrate your legs/arc. I'd take this bet in a heartbeat.

 

[17seconds]

Lot of future prison #####es up in here

 

[Soulfly3]

So... now it's safe to say this forum is made up of Warren Buffetts and Michael Jordans...

cool.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'd miss on purpose.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Hmmm...this question was on Mike and Mike this morning, so either Jake Golic is posting here, or this idea came from somewhere else.

Intriguing though.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Watching Mike and Mike this morning and NBA player Roy Hibbert just tweeted in to their show saying he wouldn't do it. Mostly because he's seen "lock-up raw." Not exactly sure what he means.

 

[Jayrok]

Where do I sign up? I'd absolutely go for the money.

 

[playin4beer]

I'd miss on purpose.

^^^ this

I life with 5 females.. My wife, 3 teenagers and a 10 year old...

Where do I sign up??

 

[FUBAR]

I'd miss on purpose.

^^^ this

I life with 5 females.. My wife, 3 teenagers and a 10 year old...

Where do I sign up??

My wife might also miss on purpose - she lives with Five Guys.

ironically, she'd have a better chance of making it than I would too.

 

[ghostguy123]

Watching Mike and Mike this morning and NBA player Roy Hibbert just tweeted in to their show saying he wouldn't do it. Mostly because he's seen "lock-up raw." Not exactly sure what he means.

and he already has millions. Not much reward and all risk....................no homo

 

[the moops]

Hibbert also hasn't made a shot from outside of 14 feet since he was in middle school.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Yeah, I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning talk about this.

My answer is no. But I wouldn't say that there is no amount of money that would get me to try. I'm sure there is.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I'd miss on purpose.

^^^ thisI life with 5 females.. My wife, 3 teenagers and a 10 year old...

Where do I sign up??

My wife might also miss on purpose - she lives with Five Guys.

ironically, she'd have a better chance of making it than I would too.

FIVE IN THE DOOR!

 

[Guest]

I would do it.

 

[xulf]

I don't care how much you practice, if you miss the first two shots the pressure will get to you.

 

[the moops]

I don't care how much you practice, if you miss the first two shots the pressure will get to you.

I would expect to miss the first 2 shots. pressure doesn't build up until shot 6 or 7

 

[Guest]

I don't care how much you practice, if you miss the first two shots the pressure will get to you.

Really depends on your life situation. I have no fear of going to a Martha Stewart type prison.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

In Jr. High, before leaving the gym, I had to make at least 20 out of 25 free throws, 6 out of ten from the top of the key, and sink a half court shot. I became fairly proficient at finishing my work out. At the time I am certain I was better than 1 out of 10 from half court. Of course that only had imaginary pressure in my head as I imagined I was shooting a game winner. Now, more than 40 years later I would be stunned if I could accomplish this. It would be blind luck, essentially.

 

[Guest]

Would make a world of difference if you could take a few warmup shots. Knowing my luck, I would sink the first warmup shot that doesn't count.

 

[Hov34]

Just got back from the gym with my PE teachers. We marked off the correct distance of an NBA half court and took 10 shots each. We are all going to prison.

Then after that we just shot some more experimenting with different shots.

I hit about shot 26 and one of the others hit at about shot 53. (he was getting tired about that point).

I shot over head two-handed caveman style and he shot a pretty run up one hand shot. (like a running jump shot).

No way in hell I'd do the 10 shot challenge, but I think I could drop 1 out of 100 vs. 10 years in the pokey.

 

[lod01]

You need to shoot it Rick Barry free throw style if you want to win this bet. It is far easier that way from half court.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

You need to shoot it Rick Barry free throw style if you want to win this bet. It is far easier that way from half court.

When I was relatively small I went hook shot on this as my most controlled manner of getting the ball there consistently. As I grew I went with a two handed chest pass, and ultimately with more of a regular motion set shot. I don't know what I would do now.

 

[Mr. Ected]

You need to shoot it Rick Barry free throw style if you want to win this bet. It is far easier that way from half court.

When I was relatively small I went hook shot on this as my most controlled manner of getting the ball there consistently. As I grew I went with a two handed chest pass, and ultimately with more of a regular motion set shot. I don't know what I would do now.

Simple, you'd back up a bit, take a few steps, leap and dunk. C'mon you're FFA!!!

 

[Captain Quinoa]

I'd rather go to prison than listen to Mike and Mike.

 

[Kanil]

Even though I probably make the shot 8.66/10 times I don't think I risk 2 years in jail for 1/2 a years salary.

 

[Hov34]

Even though I probably make the shot 8.66/10 times I don't think I risk 2 years in jail for 1/2 a years salary.

Wow, stud athlete and multi-millionare.

You must have to beat off the chicks...

(•_•)

( •_•)>⌐■-■

(⌐■_■)

with two hands.

(cuz they're dudes)

 

[sdp1226]

I don't care how much you practice, if you miss the first two shots the pressure will get to you.

I would expect to miss the first 2 shots. pressure doesn't build up until shot 6 or 7

Agree. No chance in hell anyone is making shots 8, 9 or 10. Way too much pressure.

 

[Kanil]

Even though I probably make the shot 8.66/10 times I don't think I risk 2 years in jail for 1/2 a years salary.

Wow, stud athlete and multi-millionare.

You must have to beat off the chicks...

(•_•)

( •_•)>⌐■-■

(⌐■_■)

with two hands.

(cuz they're dudes)

Guys, girls... Doesn't matter. When a bear's hungry, he eats.

 

[Soulfly3]

at the guys thinking they could hit this in 10 tries, w the punishment of 2yrs of bum stretching on the table.

by sheer luck, yes.

by skill... hell no.

 

[Guest]

at the guys thinking they could hit this in 10 tries, w the punishment of 2yrs of bum stretching on the table.

by sheer luck, yes.

by skill... hell no.

OP says Martha Stewart type place. Would be like a long vacation for me. Hell, I could probably still post in the FFA. Have someone start a gofundme account.

Much better odds of hitting 1 of 10 than winning the lottery.

 

[Soulfly3]

at the guys thinking they could hit this in 10 tries, w the punishment of 2yrs of bum stretching on the table.

by sheer luck, yes.

by skill... hell no.

OP says Martha Stewart type place. Would be like a long vacation for me. Hell, I could probably still post in the FFA. Have someone start a gofundme account.

Much better odds of hitting 1 of 10 than winning the lottery.

the OP pre edit didnt have the martha stewart addition...

meh