Half of the top RBs in this draft will be busts (1 Viewer)

[P Boy]

This is a public service message.

Based upon histroical data, half of the top 5 RBs picked are busts. Statistically, there will be 1 stud in the top 5 RBs in the class of 2006, one to two solid but not studly RBs, and two to three busts.

I made this same point last year - when I was roundly told that because so many RBs were picked so early that the stats didn't apply, yet we got what appears to be one probable stud - Cadillac, 1 solid RB - Brown, 1 bust - Arrington, and 2 RBs who we haven't seen enough to make judgment on, though because they couldn't take the starting job they probably aren't studs, but we'll withhold judgment for now. Those two guys were certainly considered busts by their owners last season based upon their draft position and what they returned in performance.

In any case, this is just a reminder to everyone here who is arguing that all 5 or even 3 of the 5 of the RBs in the top of this draft will be studly. Odds are that being extremely improbable.

Here are the percentages & the raw data. Stud/solid/bust of course is subjective. Drafted fullbacks have been identified and removed from the data set for calculations.

STUD SOLID BUST ???

17 23 38 2

21% 29% 48% 3%

Year	Round	Pick	Name	Team  2005	1	2	Ronnie Brown	Dolphins  Solid	1	4	Cedric Benson	Bears  Bust	1	5	Cadillac Williams	Buccaneers  Stud	2	12	J.J. Arrington	Cardinals  Bust	2	22	Eric Shelton	Panthers  ???2004	1	24	Steven Jackson	Rams  Stud	1	26	Chris Perry	Bengals  ???	1	30	Kevin Jones	Lions  Solid	2	9	Tatum Bell	Broncos  Solid	2	11	Julius Jones	Cowboys  Solid2003	1	23	Willis McGahee	Bills  Soild	1	27	Larry Johnson	Chiefs  Stud	3	13	Musa Smith	Ravens  Bust	3	21	B.J. Askew	Jets  FB	3	29	Chris Brown	Titans  Bust	3	32	Justin Fargas	Raiders  Bust2002	1	16	William Green	Browns  Bust	1	18	T.J. Duckett	Falcons  Solid	2	2	DeShaun Foster	Panthers  Bust	2	19	Clinton Portis	Broncos  Stud	2	22	Maurice Morris	Seahawks  Bust2001	1	5	LaDainian Tomlinson	Chargers  Stud	1	23	Deuce McAllister	Saints  Stud	1	27	Michael Bennett	Vikings  Solid	2	7	Anthony Thomas	Bears  Bust	2	18	LaMont Jordan	Jets  Solid2000	1	5	Jamal Lewis	Ravens  Stud	1	7	Thomas Jones	Cardinals  Solid	1	11	Ron Dayne	Giants  Bust	1	19	Shaun Alexander	Seahawks  Stud	1	31	Trung Canidate	Rams  Bust1999	1	4	Edgerrin James	Colts  Stud	1	5	Ricky Williams	Saints  Stud	2	8	J.J. Johnson	Dolphins  Bust	2	12	Rob Konrad	Dolphins  FB	2	15	Kevin Faulk	Patriots  Solid	2	18	Joe Montgomery	Giants  Bust1998	1	5	Curtis Enis	Bears  Bust	1	9	Fred Taylor	Jaguars  Stud	1	18	Robert Edwards	Patriots  Bust	1	29	John Avery	Dolphins  Bust	2	7	Robert Holcombe	Rams  FB	3	2	Jon Ritchie	Raiders  Bust1997	1	12	Warrick Dunn	Buccaneers  Solid	1	23	Antowain Smith	Bills  Bust	2	6	Tiki Barber	Giants  Stud	2	11	Byron Hanspard	Falcons  Bust	2	13	Corey Dillon	Bengals  Stud1996	1	6	Lawrence Phillips	Rams  Bust	1	8	Tim Biakabutuka	Panthers  Solid	1	14	Eddie George	Oilers  Stud	2	2	Leeland McElroy	Cardinals  Bust	2	5	Mike Alstott	Buccaneers  FB	3	4	Detron Smith	Broncos  FB	3	12	Winslow Oliver	Panthers  Bust1995	1	1	Ki-Jana Carter	Bengals  Bust	1	17	Tyrone Wheatley	Giants  Solid	1	18	Napoleon Kaufman	Raiders  Solid	1	19	James Stewart	Jaguars  Solid	1	21	Rashaan Salaam	Bears  Bust1994	1	2	Marshall Faulk	Colts  Stud	1	25	Greg Hill	Chiefs  Solid	1	28	William Floyd	49ers  FB	2	5	Errict Rhett	Buccaneers  Bust	2	9	Chuck Levy	Cardinals  Bust	2	13	Charlie Garner	Eagles  Solid1993	1	3	Garrison Hearst	Cardinals  Solid	1	10	Jerome Bettis	Rams  Solid	1	21	Robert Smith	Vikings  Solid	2	12	Natrone Means	Chargers  Solid	2	14	Glyn Milburn	Broncos  Bust1992	1	9	Tommy Vardell	Browns  Bust	1	19	Troy Smith	Falcons  Bust	1	21	Vaughn Dunbar	Saints  Bust	2	17	Amp Lee	49ers  Bust	2	20	Siran Stacy	Eagles  Bust1991	1	14	Leonard Russell	Patriots  Solid	1	21	Harvey Williams	Chiefs  Bust	1	27	Jarrod Bunch	Giants  FB	2	12	Eric Bieniemy	Chargers  Bust	2	16	Nick Bell	Raiders  Bust	2	18	Ricky Watters	49ers  Stud1990	1	2	Blair Thomas	Jets  Bust	1	17	Emmitt Smith	Cowboys  Stud	1	19	Darrell Thompson	Packers  Bust	1	20	Steve Broussard	Falcons  Bust	1	24	Rodney Hampton	Giants  Solid

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

Let the razing of the creator of this thread begin.

Is this long-term or re-draft?

If it's re-draft, sure. But I don't think many people would've disagreed with you that a few of those rookie RBs would be busts in their rookie year.

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

 

[cws3030]

Great info...

you got a little worse that 50/50 shot.

what the info means to me, is if you over pay or to get one of the top-5(dynasty/rookie drafts)or draft one early(re-draft) be sure your right.

if you have a top 5 pick in a dynasty/rookie draft then no harm no foul taking one.

 

[wannabee]

which half? TIA

 

[P Boy]

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

Well, I've been called a lot worse.What evidence do you have to support your position and convict me as being an idiot? Crystal ball? Tarot cards? Nuclear powered Delorean?

 

[cws3030]

Let the razing of the creator of this thread begin. 

Is this long-term or re-draft? 

If it's re-draft, sure.  But I don't think many people would've disagreed with you that a few of those rookie RBs would be busts in their rookie year.   

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think we could debate for years over stud vs solid vs bust. and i agree i'd give benson a ???. but the % are most likely on point. you have to use the information for what you need it for re-draft or dynasty (startup or rookie).

 

[P Boy]

which half? TIA

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

THAT'S the $1M question, isn't it?

 

[Bonzai]

1 27 Michael Bennett Vikings Solid

 

[reg]

1 27 Michael Bennett Vikings  Solid



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He was considered STUD until he left the Vikes.

 

[Ned]

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

Well, I've been called a lot worse.What evidence do you have to support your position and convict me as being an idiot? Crystal ball? Tarot cards? Nuclear powered Delorean?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

GO DOC!!!seriously i agree with your sentiments but have one tiny gripe. the most recent draft we should be judging is the 2003. its too early to put these tags on guys from 2004 and 2005.

 

[thayman]

Nice %. I wouldn't quite call Benson a bust yet. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that not reporting to TC last year hurt him quite a bit.

 

[Christo]

I'd go one step further and say that last year's draft is out of the ordinary because it looks like it produced two quality starters (Williams & Brown) and a probable quality starter (Benson-he did look good before he was hurt) with the first three RBs picked.

 

[P Boy]

1 27 Michael Bennett Vikings  Solid



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I know, I know. But his resume of 3174 yds rushing & 1064 yds receiving & 17 TDs in 64 games fits him into that area, IMO. It's always up for debate, of course.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

2004 looks to fly in the face of your logic. 4 out of the 5 RBs were at least solid, justifying their picks in rookie drafts, and the 5th could still be good down the line.

 

[P Boy]

seriously i agree with your sentiments but have one tiny gripe.  the most recent draft we should be judging is the 2003.  its too early to put these tags on guys from 2004 and 2005.

That's a valid concern, and I agree with you. I did try to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

[cstu]

2 12 J.J. Arrington Cardinals Bust

3 13 Musa Smith Ravens Bust

3 29 Chris Brown Titans Bust

2 2 DeShaun Foster Panthers Bust

2 22 Maurice Morris Seahawks Bust

2 7 Anthony Thomas Bears Bust

I wouldn't call these guys busts since they are 2nd/3rd round picks. JJA has had one year and Musa has had injury problems but is still on the team.

 

[P Boy]

2004 looks to fly in the face of your logic. 4 out of the 5 RBs were at least solid, justifying their picks in rookie drafts, and the 5th could still be good down the line.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Abberations happen in every data set, given enough data, don't they?If you flip 5 coins often enough, eventually 5 will come up heads. Does that mean you should make a large bet on it happening in a second event a short time later?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

While I think its good to point out the bust rate for RBs taken in the top 5 RBs for each draft, you still have to do your homework and look at each on a case by case basis. We can look back at the busts and see why they busted, and then look for similarities in this year's class. I think that is more useful analysis than just saying "at least one or two of these guys will bust".

Which one or two? and why?

I know I already have a strong feeling on that question.

 

[P Boy]

2 12 J.J. Arrington Cardinals  Bust

3 13 Musa Smith Ravens  Bust

3 29 Chris Brown Titans  Bust

2 2 DeShaun Foster Panthers  Bust

2 22 Maurice Morris Seahawks  Bust

2 7 Anthony Thomas Bears  Bust

I wouldn't call these guys busts since they are 2nd/3rd round picks.  JJA has had one year and Musa has had injury problems but is still on the team.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It would seem to me that NFL teams would expect a good proportion of 2nd & 3rd round picks to be solid starters eventually. Otherwise how could teams expect to replenish their need of 22 starters (26 if you include special teams kickers & returners) if they only expect 1 starting caliber player out of every draft?

 

[cws3030]

2004 looks to fly in the face of your logic. 4 out of the 5 RBs were at least solid, justifying their picks in rookie drafts, and the 5th could still be good down the line.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1992 all busts... 1 9 Tommy Vardell Browns Bust

1 19 Troy Smith Falcons Bust

1 21 Vaughn Dunbar Saints Bust

2 17 Amp Lee 49ers Bust

2 20 Siran Stacy Eagles Bust

 

[P Boy]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

 

[EBF]

I agree with your general premise, although I think you're being a bit hard on Chris Brown and DeShaun Foster. Those guys both showed enough during their early years to carry top 50 dynasty value at one point. Brown was probably a 2nd-3rd round pick for a time. Sure, neither player has become the solid starter that owners hoped for, but they each achieved enough value to be sold high.

 

[Christo]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think anyone is doing that.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm down with that. Let's move from "It's likely to rain at least two days next week" to "Which days is it more likely to rain?" I dont want to have to carry my umbrella every single day.

(Sorry for the horrible metaphor)

 

[rifkin]

Shawn Alexander has to be a bust if Cedric Benson is a bust:

2000 Seattle Seahawks 16 1 64 313 4.9 50 2 1 20

couldn't beat out the incumbent back, so must not be that great.

 

[rifkin]

I agree with your general premise, although I think you're being a bit hard on Chris Brown and DeShaun Foster. Those guys both showed enough during their early years to carry top 50 dynasty value at one point. Brown was probably a 2nd-3rd round pick for a time. Sure, neither player has become the solid starter that owners hoped for, but they each achieved enough value to be sold high.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah Kevin Faulk is a SOLID and Foster and Brown are busts?

 

[thayman]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like a bit of the reality check you are giving....I think it will take some time for this particular draft class to show what they have.Bush-will be starting RBBC with Deuce; probably won't live up to expectations, but how can he?? and even if he is half as good as everyone says, that's pretty good.

Maroney-Behind CD for a year or two, probably won't see too much of him.

Williams-Same as Maroney.

White-See above. Probably see a bit more action as a change of pace.

Addai-great situation, but looking like a classic RBBC.

So unless there are some injuries, we won't know for a year or two. JMHO

 

[aardball44]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm down with that. Let's move from "It's likely to rain at least two days next week" to "Which days is it more likely to rain?" I dont want to have to carry my umbrella every single day.

(Sorry for the horrible metaphor)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As metaphors* go, this one is pretty solid. Not studly, but solid.

*It's actually an analogy more than it is a metaphor...but close enough.

 

[JimmyD]

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

Well, I've been called a lot worse.What evidence do you have to support your position and convict me as being an idiot? Crystal ball? Tarot cards? Nuclear powered Delorean?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't get my hands on a Nuclear powered DeLorean, but I can get a hold of a gas powered one, with almost 300,000 miles on it....does that help?

 

[P Boy]

Shawn Alexander has to be a bust if Cedric Benson is a bust:

2000 Seattle Seahawks 16 1 64 313 4.9 50 2 1 20

couldn't beat out the incumbent back, so must not be that great.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah Kevin Faulk is a SOLID and Foster and Brown are busts?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Having a rough time in that dynasty league, are we?

 

[Red Herring]

Disagreement with designations aside, it seems like more teams have gotten better at separating the solid to superior RBs from the rest of the pack.

The next logical step (IMHO) is: what do those with the bust labels have in common, as far as their college careers are concerned? What separates the Bust from the Solid from the Stud? If we can find some common factors in any group, thats some helpful info. Great starting point though

 

[Z-Dog]

Until you define what a stud is, what a solid is and what a bust is, you're not saying anything remotely useful.

Your most puzzling calls:

Year Round Pick Name Team  2005 1 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins  Solid 1 4 Cedric Benson Bears  Bust 1 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers  Stud 2 12 J.J. Arrington Cardinals  Bust 2 22 Eric Shelton Panthers  ???A little early for all of those guys, don't ya think?2004 1 24 Steven Jackson Rams  Stud 1 30 Kevin Jones Lions  Solid 2 11 Julius Jones Cowboys  SolidJackson had 1000 yards and 8 TDs, but you have him as a stud. JJ had 993 and 5 TDs in 3 fewer games, but he's only solid. Kevin Jones had about 600 yards on like 3.6 ypc, but he's also solid?2003 1 27 Larry Johnson Chiefs  Stud 3 29 Chris Brown Titans  BustChris Brown's numbers are very simliar to Steven Jackson's, but Brown is a bust and Jackson is a stud.2002 1 16 William Green Browns  Bust 1 18 T.J. Duckett Falcons  Solid 2 2 DeShaun Foster Panthers  Bust 2 19 Clinton Portis Broncos  Stud 2 22 Maurice Morris Seahawks  BustDuckett hasn't ever had 200 touches, but he's solid? The guy had one season where he gained more than 510 yards, and it was three years ago... 2001 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers  Stud 1 23 Deuce McAllister Saints  Stud 1 27 Michael Bennett Vikings  Solid 2 7 Anthony Thomas Bears  Bust 2 18 LaMont Jordan Jets  SolidA-Train had two 1,000 yard seasons, but he's a bust. Duckett never hit 1,000, but he's solid. Lamont Jordan has had one season as a starter, and has over 1,000 career yards less than A-Train, but he's solid.2000 1 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens  Stud 1 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals  Solid 1 11 Ron Dayne Giants  Bust 1 19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks  Stud 1 31 Trung Canidate Rams  BustIf you had made this list at any point between 2000 and 2003, Thomas Jones would have been a bust. When you make it next year (and assuming you're correct about Benson) he will be a stud.
Ok, I think I've made my point, I'll stop here.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

In any case, the whole idea of this thread is to provoke some thought, and perhaps some healthy skepticism at a time of the year when some people are gushing over every one of the top 5 RBs as being guaranteed studs-in-waiting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm down with that. Let's move from "It's likely to rain at least two days next week" to "Which days is it more likely to rain?" I dont want to have to carry my umbrella every single day.

(Sorry for the horrible metaphor)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As metaphors* go, this one is pretty solid. Not studly, but solid.

*It's actually an analogy more than it is a metaphor...but close enough.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I should really stick to football talk and avoid english. Im out of my element.

 

[hofer]

I dont see how someone who ran for over 1000 yards four times is complete bust. (Garrison Hearst)

 

[P Boy]

I dont see how someone who ran for over 1000 yards four times is complete bust.  (Garrison Hearst)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll agree with you. I'll change him to "solid"

 

[starks2755]

Theres a rb on the bust list that had 1450 combined yds n 12 tds in his rookie year. Granted that was the only year he played, but Robert Edwards' rookie numbers are worth mentioning considering it was overlooked phenomenal production in a rookie year.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Can't believe I'm on the same page as Pony Boy, but here goes...

We can debate the who's a stud/solid/bust argument all day long, but the point Pony Boy is trying to bring up is similar to an argument I had with many of you on these boards at this time last year. At this time last year, many guys on this board gushed over the "depth of talent" last year, and how '05 was going to produce anywhere from 5-8 studs. I couldn't disagree loudly enough, and got slapped around by posters here saying I was acting like a know-it-all.

What I do know is this... every year, there are high draft-pick RB busts. EVERY SINGLE YEAR! This year will be no different. Who will it be? Maroney, Bush, Addai, DeAngelo, LenDale? Mark my words, one or more of these guys will bust. It always, always, always happens.

"Can't miss" guys do miss. It happens year in and year out. Believing that "this is the year" is foolish and short-sighted.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Well, this is a good idea for a "service announcement," but isn't very well written. First, you absolutely MUST specify whether you're talking strictly about re-draft leagues or dynasty/keeper leagues. The 2 are completely different when examining this point.

The idiot talk was a bit rash, but you really do have to set the lists completely different. Think in re-draft terms:

Larry Johnson = bust

Thomas Jones = bust

hell, unless I'm mistaken, S. Alexander = bust

But, taking a look at those guys long term and you've got Stud, Solid, Stud. Hopefully that makes sense, and is probably why you're getting mixed reactions, PB.

 

[P Boy]

Well, this is a good idea for a "service announcement," but isn't very well written.  First, you absolutely MUST specify whether you're talking strictly about re-draft leagues or dynasty/keeper leagues.  The 2 are completely different when examining this point.

The idiot talk was a bit rash, but you really do have to set the lists completely different.  Think in re-draft terms:

Larry Johnson = bust

Thomas Jones = bust

hell, unless I'm mistaken, S. Alexander = bust

But, taking a look at those guys long term and you've got Stud, Solid, Stud.  Hopefully that makes sense, and is probably why you're getting mixed reactions, PB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, I agree. Judged strictly upon a 1st year basis, the bust rate is much higher. That's even more of an alarm. However, I was looking more as an overall - hence keeper or dynasty - type of evaluation. That's also why I would consider Robert Edwards as a bust, even though his rookie year was outstanding. No fault of his own, but the sad fact is that he had his career ended in a NFL generated meaningless event.

 

[nygiants56]

1 27 Michael Bennett Vikings  Solid



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He was considered STUD until he left the Vikes.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bennett = stud um, no he was never considered a stud in Minnesota..maybe to people living in Minnesota he was, but not elsewhere..lol

he had 1 season where he went over 1,000 yards...Droughns has had a better career thus far! and that doesn't say much about either,really..

 

[Chaos Commish]

Terrible injuries can ruin any great prospect, and it's not rational to call those cases draft busts. It's just an unfortunate factor in the analysis. RBs get hurt... a lot... sometimes real bad. It's part of the risk, but not right to label them busts. Busts should be the guys who are drafted very high, given every chance, and don't make it.

I think this class will follow the historical pattern. 2 or 3 out of 5 are excellent. 2 or 3 disappoint. If I had to predict it...

Excellent...

Bush barring injury.

Williams with a higher injury risk.

Potential busts, the other three...

Maroney, White, Addai... in any order you prefer.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Yep, I agree.  Judged strictly upon a 1st year basis, the bust rate is much higher.  That's even more of an alarm.  However, I was looking more as an overall - hence keeper or dynasty - type of evaluation.  That's also why I would consider Robert Edwards as a bust, even though his rookie year was outstanding.  No fault of his own, but the sad fact is that he had his career ended in a NFL generated meaningless event.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Gotcha. OK, then I applaud you for putting down in writing your take on some of these guys over the last 2 years or so. Maybe put a single "?" after guys from the last 2 drafts. Right now, Benson hasn't paid dividends...but he could be LJ in a year or so...you just never know. Hell, Caddy could blow an engine this year and never be the same; it goes both ways.It's definitely a good call for caution, and to temper everyone's expectations. Personally I don't think any of the rookie RB's are looking that great. Maroney looks great, IF you think CD will struggle again and get parked for the youngster. Addai looks like he'll run the stretch-left/right fine, BUT also looks like he'd struggle mightily getting tough yards up the middle. Bush looks amazing, BUT will probably be greatly limited in his touches his rookie season. Williams will have to beat out a very talented (but brittle) RB already on the roster for 4 seasons. None of these situations really excite me anyway, so I'd guess I won't end up with any of them!

Someone above brought up an interesting point. Do we have any confidence (as a concensus) that the scouting of these RB's is improving. You'd think the percentages that teams have "bust" picks would slowly decline as the mass media, studies, combines, work-outs, and 1-1 face time gets broader and deeper each year. I don't have any #'s to back it up, but I very much doubt that any teams scouting department and budget is shrinking. Perhaps we can take a leap of faith that the % will continue to trend up with less and less "bust" picks??

 

[P Boy]

Terrible injuries can ruin any great prospect, and it's not rational to call those cases draft busts.  It's just an unfortunate factor in the analysis.  RBs get hurt... a lot... sometimes real bad.  It's part of the risk, but not right to label them busts.  Busts should be the guys who are drafted very high, given every chance, and don't make it. 

I knew this argument was coming. Ask NO or a FF owner of Bush if he were to get his career ended after week 2 if that pick were a bust.Injuries happen. They happen to busts, to solid players, and to studs. The only players who have their status affected are the solids & the studs. The busts would have been busts, injured or not. But if a player is injured early on & it causes them to not contribute, that's a bust. Maybe you don't feel good about calling them that, but the fact remains that someone wasted a significant draft pick (either in the NFL or FF) and didn't have any kind of production to justify that pick.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Terrible injuries can ruin any great prospect, and it's not rational to call those cases draft busts.  It's just an unfortunate factor in the analysis.  RBs get hurt... a lot... sometimes real bad.  It's part of the risk, but not right to label them busts.  Busts should be the guys who are drafted very high, given every chance, and don't make it. 

I think this class will follow the historical pattern.  2 or 3 out of 5 are excellent.  2 or 3 disappoint.  If I had to predict it...

Excellent...

Bush barring injury.

Williams with a higher injury risk. 

Potential busts, the other three...

Maroney, White, Addai... in any order you prefer.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed with your first thought. Based off that, I'd actually put Bush alone as the one that won't bust. Each of the other 4 could turn south. Williams could stuggle to stay healthy, or run effectively nicked up. Addai sends up flags (for me) that he'll never be an effective inside runner. White has work-ethic red flags. Maroney I think is the next least likely to completely bust. The guy is an absolute HORSE of a RB.Yep, injuries can happen anywhere and anytime. But career ending injuries are less and less as the science of sports medicine and sports injuries evolves.

 

[carlosnphilly]

Benson's not a bust. Because he couldn't overcome a guy playing at an All-Pro level after sitting out a contract dispute, he's a bust? Same situation....Cadillac nor Brown would of taken Jones off the field. You do understand that right?

It's especially interesting since TJ is already #####ing about a contract situation of his own. Benson looked just fine in the time he did get last year.

-----------------

Just quite amusing that you'd label Kevin Jones and his quarter of a year of glory SOLID (completely ignore the fact he looked like utter #### last year), Tatum Bell who couldn't beat out a 32 year old (and likely Ron Dayne) SOLID & TJ Duckett's fat### SOLID.

Since when has Kevin Faulk's ### been SOLID??

 

[Slinger]

But you're an idiot if you're calling Benson a bust and Brown only a solid if you're talking long-term.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's not being excellent guy.

 

[carlosnphilly]

Wish this list were created after Larry Johnson's rookie year when he did little. Would of been interesting to see the BUST label.

 

[Slinger]

I love Pony Boy's point in this. In the end only 2 out of the 5 RB's in question will have a good/great career for the owners who selected him.

 

[P Boy]

Just quite amusing that you'd label Kevin Jones and his quarter of a year of glory SOLID (completely ignore the fact he looked like utter #### last year), Tatum Bell who couldn't beat out a 32 year old (and likely Ron Dayne) SOLID & TJ Duckett's fat### SOLID. Since when has Kevin Faulk's ### been SOLID??

Well, I'm glad I could amuse you. I would suggest that a RB like Kevin Jones, who has generated an average of 75 ypg & 11 TDs over 28 games in the first 2 years of his career has the earmarks of not being a bust, and he sure isn't at stud level. That kind of slots him into a solid producer.I would also suggest that a RB like Tatum Bell, who has generated an average of 52 ypg & 11 TDs over 29 games in the first 2 years of his career has the earmarks of not being a bust, and he sure isn't at stud level. That kind of slots him into a solid producer.I would also suggest that a RB like TJ Duckett, who has generated an average of 44 ypg & 31 TDs over 55 games in the first 4 years of his career has the earmarks of not being a bust, and he sure isn't at stud level. That kind of slots him into a solid producer. His yardage may be a little less, but he makes up for that with TDs.I would also suggest that a RB like Kevin Faulk, who has generated an average of 48 ypg & 18 TDs over 91 games has the earmarks of not being a bust, and he sure isn't at stud level. That kind of slots him into a solid producer. He steadily contributes significant yardage each year over the course of a year for 7 years running.These guys aren't great, but they make a difference, and an important contribution to their respective teams, even though they aren't shining stars.But again, this is certainly open to interpretation.

 

[Fla\/\/ed]

Well done, Pony Boy.