Handcuffing the top dogs (1 Viewer)

[Mozeta]

If you are drafting in the top 5 of your draft and assuming the top 5 players off the board are Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, and Steven Jackson, do you see it as a requirement to also draft their backups. If so, which backups are worth taking and in what round do you begin to think about the handcuff.

Most of these back ups are nowhere on the radar. I’m talking about Michael Bennett, Dee Brown, Michael Turner, Tony Fisher, Maurice Morris, & Brandon Jacobs

What if you are in a league with very few bench spots (5 or less)? Do you still go for these backups or do you try to take another RB with a better shot of having a break out season? Even if one of these top 5 guys go down, will the back up even be worth having. I can recall Duce going down last year and there wasn’t a RB in New Orleans worth staring after that. Would this be the same type of scenario?

On the flipside to this, if you have one of the later picks (six or later) at some point do you think about drafting the backups to one of these top 5 despite them not being on your team?

 

[BoulderBob]

Protect your investment. The main reason I value Alexander, Tomlinson, and Barber over L .Johnson is the sure-fire #2 RB.

 

[None_More_Black]

I think brandon Jacobs is on the radar, he had 7 tds last year and tiki is 32. You are going to have to get him a lot earlier then the backups of the other top five. (not including betts). If that is a reason to downgrade him then so be it.

 

[coolnerd]

I have five bench spots, and handcuff then makes that into four bench spots. I would rather invest into RBs ranked 25-40 (assuming 12 team) with that limited amount of flexibility. Only one or two of the guys mentioned fall into that category of player.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

If you are drafting in the top 5 of your draft and assuming the top 5 players off the board are Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, and Steven Jackson, do you see it as a requirement to also draft their backups. If so, which backups are worth taking and in what round do you begin to think about the handcuff.

Most of these back ups are nowhere on the radar. I’m talking about Michael Bennett, Dee Brown, Michael Turner, Tony Fisher, Maurice Morris, & Brandon Jacobs

What if you are in a league with very few bench spots (5 or less)? Do you still go for these backups or do you try to take another RB with a better shot of having a break out season? Even if one of these top 5 guys go down, will the back up even be worth having. I can recall Duce going down last year and there wasn’t a RB in New Orleans worth staring after that. Would this be the same type of scenario?

On the flipside to this, if you have one of the later picks (six or later) at some point do you think about drafting the backups to one of these top 5 despite them not being on your team?

Good thread here

 

[bentley]

That's a great study. I'd like to see it on a wider data set (although I'm not going to put in the time to do it). Very good point about making sure the backup is actually worth a ####. I'm still not much of a fan of the idea, though.

Why am I spending so much time in the Shark Pool?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

That's a great study. I'd like to see it on a wider data set (although I'm not going to put in the time to do it). Very good point about making sure the backup is actually worth a ####. I'm still not much of a fan of the idea, though.Why am I spending so much time in the Shark Pool?

Thanks. I hear you about the wider data set, but it's so much damn work that I couldn't handle doing it again for last season. I actually did another stat-heavy freelance this season. I'm wondering whether it's clear that someone could take a previous freelance and update it with another season's worth of data even if they didn't write the original? Maybe that's not allowed. A good idea nonetheless. The threads about who to pick up as LJ's backup this season make me wonder if anyone read this study. Now maybe, maybe, Michael Bennett is worth a late round handcuff, but when folks were deciding between Dee Brown and Quentin Griffin?

 

[Mozeta]

Good thread here

Very nice work on the study. I just had my first 10 team draft and took LT2 with the 1st pick. We had a 20 round draft. I had planned on taking his backup in the early to mid teens. However, as the draft played out no one had bothered taking backups until very late. I gambled a bit and was able to hold off taking LT2's back up, Michael Turner, in the 16th round. I think that is pretty good value out of LT’s handcuff. Had I started to see a trend of backups getting drafted sooner I would have pulled the trigger earlier than the 16th. I guess if someone else had decided to take Michael Turner, I could have countered by taking their backup with the next pick. It’s personally not my style to take someone else’s backup just to screw them or for revenge, but I also am not against it if there is tremendous upside. By waiting till round 16 I was able to grab a defense, a TE, and a decent prospect in LenDale White with my 3 previous picks. Note: LenDale is a backup with good upside IMO.

I have another 10 team draft coming up with only 14 roster spots 5 of them being for bench players. Turns out I have the 3rd overall pick and I do not think I will be able to afford to take a backup for one the top 3 guys I will be drafting.

I’m not quite sure exactly what the number of bench spots must be to start filling them with backups, but I think if I had 6 bench spots, I would consider getting a back up with my last pick only if there was no question as to who that backup was, the starter was an elite RB, and there were no very good prospects left to draft. For instance I probably would not bother getting Arlen Harris to back up Kevin Jones in that situation. Nor would I bother taking a backup QB or WR as there are other starters worth picking up on waivers should I need one in a pinch. Also, with 5 or less bench spots, I don’t think anyone else in the league could afford to waste a roster spot by taking my backups. I just think it would be a mad rush to the waiver wire should something happen to an elite.

 

[kal-el]

That is an excellent study. I was just think the other day that fantasy football analysis is to the point that we really need to start looking at the dynamics of actual fantasy leagues to determine optimal drafting strategies.

Handcuffing is a tough question. I agree with the study in that the two key factors are (1) how good the offense is and (2) how much ability the back-up is perceived to have.

Struggling with whether to handcuff my two keeper RBs this year--Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Both are in offenses that will be average to good (but probably not top 5). Both have back-ups with fairly mediocre ability (Sammy Morris and Tony Fisher). My rational side says to skip the handcuffs. My paranoid side is still fighting, though.

 

[David Yudkin]

My question to the "you have to handcuff PLAYER X" crowd is whether in your heart you actually think the replacement will produce even close to the Top 5 pick. For example, I don't see Brandon Jacobs doing much if Tiki went down. I'm not saying that he's not a fantasy option if Barber got hurt, only that I don't think he would sniff Top 5 numbers. In fact, he may not even be a great option if you have other options on your squad.

On the flip side, some of the other options may have value even if the Top 5 guy didn't get hurt. For example, Larry Johnson will not run the ball 500 times, so I can see Michael Bennett getting some carries even with a healthy LJ. If the Chiefs OL holds up, Bennett could be a decent third RB or flex starter for deeper leagues. Given his experience level and being in the Chiefs system, I would think he could put up Top 10 numbers if he got to play regularly.

I've been an Alexander and Morris owner for years, and I can't ever remember playing Morris. I guess he's good "insurance" but in my leagues with limited roster space he is probably a liabilty more than an asset.

IMO, handcuffing is great if you can spare the roster space but a tough call when you start 9 players but have say only 14 roster slots.

 

[panhead55]

This is my first post here so be kind!

Hopefully when you play Fantasy football you are playing to win. I play a lot in Sportsline leagues and they only pay for first place. To win these leagues you need a little luck. If you handcuff your stud and your stud goes down you've protected your investment, but your team is a little weaker then it was before. If you select the handcuff to other teams' studs and their RB goes down (and of course your stud RB remains healthy) then your backup all of a sudden is elevated to near stud status. This can often be the edge that brings your team a championship.

I want to grab backups that can become #1 RBs if the starter goes down. If you want to play for the middle of the pack then by all means handcuff your own starters. If you want to win the league then grab other owners' backups.

There's my two cents worth.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

That is an excellent study. I was just think the other day that fantasy football analysis is to the point that we really need to start looking at the dynamics of actual fantasy leagues to determine optimal drafting strategies.Handcuffing is a tough question. I agree with the study in that the two key factors are (1) how good the offense is and (2) how much ability the back-up is perceived to have.Struggling with whether to handcuff my two keeper RBs this year--Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Both are in offenses that will be average to good (but probably not top 5). Both have back-ups with fairly mediocre ability (Sammy Morris and Tony Fisher). My rational side says to skip the handcuffs. My paranoid side is still fighting, though.

I would probably agree to skip the handcuffs, although I do like Fisher alot more than Morris.

 

[kal-el]

That is an excellent study. I was just think the other day that fantasy football analysis is to the point that we really need to start looking at the dynamics of actual fantasy leagues to determine optimal drafting strategies.Handcuffing is a tough question. I agree with the study in that the two key factors are (1) how good the offense is and (2) how much ability the back-up is perceived to have.Struggling with whether to handcuff my two keeper RBs this year--Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. Both are in offenses that will be average to good (but probably not top 5). Both have back-ups with fairly mediocre ability (Sammy Morris and Tony Fisher). My rational side says to skip the handcuffs. My paranoid side is still fighting, though.

I would probably agree to skip the handcuffs, although I do like Fisher alot more than Morris.

My thinking exactly. Ended up taking Fisher with my last pick in the draft.

 

[Kai's Hero]

If you are drafting in the top 5 of your draft and assuming the top 5 players off the board are Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, and Steven Jackson, do you see it as a requirement to also draft their backups. If so, which backups are worth taking and in what round do you begin to think about the handcuff.Most of these back ups are nowhere on the radar. I’m talking about Michael Bennett, Dee Brown, Michael Turner, Tony Fisher, Maurice Morris, & Brandon Jacobs What if you are in a league with very few bench spots (5 or less)? Do you still go for these backups or do you try to take another RB with a better shot of having a break out season? Even if one of these top 5 guys go down, will the back up even be worth having. I can recall Duce going down last year and there wasn’t a RB in New Orleans worth staring after that. Would this be the same type of scenario? On the flipside to this, if you have one of the later picks (six or later) at some point do you think about drafting the backups to one of these top 5 despite them not being on your team?

Ronnie Brown WILL outperform Steven Jackson this year. Put him in your Top-5