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Harrison will not be a top 5 WR this year (1 Viewer)

Buckychudd

Footballguy
He has two things working against him.The first and most obvious is that his receptions and yardage are declining and will continue to do so. This is really due to three factors: - His age (just turned 33). Let's face it we all get a little slower, recuperate a little less quickly, and get a little weaker. Even a high caliber athlete like Harrison is going to feel the effects.- The emergence of Wayne and Stokley as viable alternate threats. Harrison's reception numbers will continue to drop as these guys get better and Manning's confidence in them will only improve.- The maturation of Manning as a QB. He's working through his receiver progression better and is less likely to dump the ball off to his first option.The 15 TDs last year was an aberration, no way he repeats again this year.- Part of the 15 TDs was due to Manning's incredible season which he will not repeat this year. Manning's TD average over the previous 6 years was 28/year, as high as 33 TDs in 2000. In 2004 he exploded for 49. Part of this is attributable to the rule change, part to his maturation as a QB, but even accounting for those factors it's hard to say he can repeat his 2004 numbers.- Again the emergence of Wayne and Stokley will continue to work against him, as well as Manning's maturation as a QB. He will get fewer opportunities to catch the ball.- Harrison has averaged about 1 TD every 9 times he catches the ball. Last year he had 1 TD for every 6 times. Expect him to have fewer TDs/catch this year.I figure it's almost a no brainer that Moss, Owens, and Holt outperform him this year. Leaving him as at best the 4th best receiver. I think it's very likely that Horn, Walker, and Chad Johnson do as well. I think there is an even chance that Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Harrison's teammate Wayne outperform him.He very well could end up outside the top 10 WRs this year.

 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?1999 80/1413/11 2000 77/1437/15 2001 82/1233/10 2002 106/1347/7 Then remember how he went and did this?2003 111/1632/17 That was awesome.

 
Code:
Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1999         119             1              72000         115             2              72001         114             1              52002         119             1              62003          83             5             152004          74             5             17
 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:confused: That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.

 
I don't think he has a lot of upside nor does he have a lot of downside. He's a relatively safe pick, he's always healthy, he's Mannings favorite target come crunch time, high powered offense, I could go on. The age thing is moot IMO, he was 32 last year and he looked ok to me.Harrison will get his #'s, he's no longer a #1 but shouldn't finish outside the top 10 either.

 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:thumbdown: Randy Moss was 26 in 2003, the Vikings had no other viable recievers, and the next year he went.....

2004 49/767/13

Not so awesome.

 
History certainly is not on Harrison's side. If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season. Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34. No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.

 
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Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:thumbdown: Randy Moss was 26 in 2003, the Vikings had no other viable recievers, and the next year he went.....

2004 49/767/13

Not so awesome.
Moss has nothing to do with this and he posses a very weak arguement for both of your sides.I agree, I do not see Marvin as having a very good shot at being the #1 WR anymore. Top 5 is still possible, but not what I would bet on either. Top 10, w/o a doubt. I see Wayne as the major reason why.

 
I don't think he has a lot of upside nor does he have a lot of downside. He's a relatively safe pick, he's always healthy, he's Mannings favorite target come crunch time, high powered offense, I could go on. The age thing is moot IMO, he was 32 last year and he looked ok to me.

Harrison will get his #'s, he's no longer a #1 but shouldn't finish outside the top 10 either.
I agree, he's still listed as #7 on my board just because of the "safe" factor. If I was a little more adventurous with my picks he'd be down to #10.
 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:confused: That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.
Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.

Oops.

Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.

All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.

 
History certainly is not on Harrison's side.  If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season.  Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34.  No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.
I am all for stats but Harrison is a HOF WR playing with HOF QB, one year removed from breaking the all time TD record, playing on the best offense in football. Sometimes there are exceptions to historical trends (ala Owens changing teams last year) and while I agree that he probably won't be top 5 I don't think he'll fall out of the top 10.
 
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Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:thumbdown: Randy Moss was 26 in 2003, the Vikings had no other viable recievers, and the next year he went.....

2004 49/767/13

Not so awesome.
Moss was the #1 receiver during the games he played last year.
 
FWIW - Harrison has the best chance of any WR to be in the top 5

 
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Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:confused: That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.
Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.

Oops.

Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.

All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.
I still disagree. If you look at his reasoning for Harrison's decline, you'll see none of them apply to your argument.Moss wasn't over 30.

There weren't two other WRs getting a larger share of the balls.

His QB wasn't coming off a record breaking season in which all signs tend to point to a regression in numbers.

Apples and oranges.

 
I agree, he's still listed as #7 on my board just because of the "safe" factor.  If I was a little more adventurous with my picks he'd be down to #10.
I would agree on the fact that he may not be worthy of a top 5 spot. I would like to think he may end up at #5, just because I have him and Manning on one of my teams this year. ;) But if you have Harrison at #7 for a "safe factor", where would you have the volatile Owens listed? Is there a "safe factor" for him as well? Who knows what he'll do week in week out? Based on that statement, how can we really rank him?Secondly, would you call having both Owens and Harrison on a team risky? Would you be daring enough to do that?Just curious... :D
 
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History certainly is not on Harrison's side.  If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season.  Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34.  No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.
I am all for stats but Harrison is a HOF WR playing with HOF QB, one year removed from breaking the all time TD record, playing on the best offense in football. Sometimes there are exceptions to historical trends (ala Owens changing teams last year) and while I agree that he probably won't be top 5 I don't think he'll fall out of the top 10.
:goodposting: Agree 100%
 
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Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:thumbdown: Randy Moss was 26 in 2003, the Vikings had no other viable recievers, and the next year he went.....

2004 49/767/13

Not so awesome.
Moss was the #1 receiver during the games he played last year.
Randy Moss was 26 in 2003, and the Vikings had no other viable recievers.Harrison is 33 this year, and Manning has a ton of other options.

 
FWIW - Harrison has the best chance of any WR to be in the top 5
Agreed. Harrison has been #1, 2, 1, 1, 5, and #5 the last six years. It's crazy to expect that kind of consistency to just suddenly drop off.

Randy Moss has been #1, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, and was #1 in the games he played last year. The fact that he's changing teams makes him a little less likely to be top 5 again, but not much.

Owens is in the same category, and has been #3, 2, 2, 12, but bounced back to #4 last year when he changed teams. That probably puts him as a little less likely than Moss or Harrison, but not much. It also calms the nerves when thinking about Moss changing teams, although McNabb is a better QB than Collins.

FWIW, Holt has been #7, 8, 4, 12, 10. Not as likely. Chad Johnson has been #18, #3 and #9. Also not as likely. I do like both a lot this year, but that's based on expectation of future performance.

Again, we're looking at one of the best receivers of this era. It's hard to argue he's just going to fall off the face of the earth.

 
I agree, he's still listed as #7 on my board just because of the "safe" factor.  If I was a little more adventurous with my picks he'd be down to #10.
I would agree on the fact that he may not be worthy of a top 5 spot. I would like to think he may end up at #5, just because I have him and Manning on one of my teams this year. ;) But if you have Harrison at #7 for a "safe factor", where would you have the volatile Owens listed? Is there a "safe factor" for him as well? Who knows what he'll do week in week out? Based on that statement, how can we really rank him?

Secondly, would you call having both Owens and Harrison on a team risky? Would you be daring enough to do that?

Just curious... :D
I have Owens at #3 behind Holt because of the safety factor......really I think he should be #2.I'm not sure I understand the second question. Having a top 3 and top 10 WR on my team would be fine by me......I don't think Harrison is risky, I just don't think he'll perform as a top 5 WR.

 
History certainly is not on Harrison's side. If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season. Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34. No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.
except that isnt rice the WR you would compare harrison to - at least for consistent excellence throughout his career? if youre looking for the next WR to produce big numbers well into his 30s, harrison is definitely the best candidate.
 
FWIW - Harrison has the best chance of any WR to be in the top 5
Agreed. Harrison has been #1, 2, 1, 1, 5, and #5 the last six years. It's crazy to expect that kind of consistency to just suddenly drop off.

Randy Moss has been #1, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, and was #1 in the games he played last year. The fact that he's changing teams makes him a little less likely to be top 5 again, but not much.

Owens is in the same category, and has been #3, 2, 2, 12, but bounced back to #4 last year when he changed teams. That probably puts him as a little less likely than Moss or Harrison, but not much. It also calms the nerves when thinking about Moss changing teams, although McNabb is a better QB than Collins.

FWIW, Holt has been #7, 8, 4, 12, 10. Not as likely. Chad Johnson has been #18, #3 and #9. Also not as likely. I do like both a lot this year, but that's based on expectation of future performance.

Again, we're looking at one of the best receivers of this era. It's hard to argue he's just going to fall off the face of the earth.
You may want to recheck Holt's 2003 numbers.I'm not saying Harrison will radically fall off......I'm saying he'll go from being #5 over the last two years to 7-10 this year. 2002, when Harrison was 30, will be his last big year. Just curious, how many yards/TDs do you think Harrison will have this year?

 
He has two things working against him.

The first and most obvious is that his receptions and yardage are declining and will continue to do so.  This is really due to three factors:

-  His age (just turned 33).  Let's face it we all get a little slower, recuperate a little less quickly, and get a little weaker.  Even a high caliber athlete like Harrison is going to feel the effects.
Show me where his skills appeared to drop off last year because of age. He's a better WR than rod smith and jimmy smith, and they didnt drop off at 33.
-  The emergence of Wayne and Stokley as viable alternate threats.  Harrison's reception numbers will continue to drop as these guys get better and Manning's confidence in them will only improve.
I agree that they are dangerous weapons with manning's confidence, but this only increases the chances of the coverage not being able to key on harrison. this is GOOD for harrison.
-  The maturation of Manning as a QB.  He's working through his receiver progression better and is less likely to dump the ball off to his first option.

The 15 TDs last year was an aberration, no way he repeats again this year.

-  Part of the 15 TDs was due to Manning's incredible season which he will not repeat this year.  Manning's TD average over the previous 6 years was 28/year, as high as 33 TDs in 2000.  In 2004 he exploded for 49.  Part of this is attributable to the rule change, part to his maturation as a QB, but even accounting for those factors it's hard to say he can repeat his 2004 numbers.

-  Again the emergence of Wayne and Stokley will continue to work against him, as well as Manning's maturation as a QB.  He will get fewer opportunities to catch the ball.

-  Harrison has averaged about 1 TD every 9 times he catches the ball.  Last year he had 1 TD for every 6 times.  Expect him to have fewer TDs/catch this year.

I figure it's almost a no brainer that Moss, Owens, and Holt outperform him this year.  Leaving him as at best the 4th best receiver.  I think it's very likely that Horn, Walker, and Chad Johnson do as well.  I think there is an even chance that Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Harrison's teammate Wayne outperform him.

He very well could end up outside the top 10 WRs this year.
15 TDs is unlikely to repeat, ill grant that, but i expect his reception totals go back up towards his historical level (at least in the mid 90s). remember that manning attempted about 70 less passes than his typical 570ish total last year. if that number goes back to its historical level, harrison will have 100 catches easy.He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.

 
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History certainly is not on Harrison's side.  If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season.  Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34.  No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.
except that isnt rice the WR you would compare harrison to - at least for consistent excellence throughout his career? if youre looking for the next WR to produce big numbers well into his 30s, harrison is definitely the best candidate.
Perhaps.They do have some similarity. Both HOF WR candidates on high powered teams with HOF QBs. The difference is that there was no other viable recievers in San Fran until TO in 1996.....Rice's numbers deteriorated quickly after that.

 
He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
Because Wayne will be the best WR in the best passing O this year.
 
He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
Because Wayne will be the best WR in the best passing O this year.
only if they double cover harrison. there's no way wayne is a better WR than harrison. wayne *could* have better stats than harrison, but harrison is still a better WR than wayne (and 99% of the WR in the league) will ever be.
 
Show me where his skills appeared to drop off last year because of age. He's a better WR than rod smith and jimmy smith, and they didnt drop off at 33.
I think he's been dropping off since he turned 31.....2002 142/17222003 94/12722004 86/1113
I agree that they are dangerous weapons with manning's confidence, but this only increases the chances of the coverage not being able to key on harrison. this is GOOD for harrison.
I admit this is a possiblity. However opposing teams still fear Harrison more than Wayne.....meaning Harrison should still have the #1 cover guy on him. He won't see as much double coverage though. Then again he didn't see much double coverage last year.
15 TDs is unlikely to repeat, ill grant that, but i expect his reception totals go back up towards his historical level (at least in the mid 90s). remember that manning attempted about 70 less passes than his typical 570ish total last year. if that number goes back to its historical level, harrison will have 100 catches easy.He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
I have a hard time seeing him matching his 2003 numbers....even if he does, I think that makes him a marginal #5 at best. But really I see him repeating his 2004 receptions and yards with 3-5 fewer TDs.....putting him in the 7-10 range.
 
Who is the real WR1 on Indy? Manning has said that there are two WR1's, but the numbers tell a different story.Here are Wayne & Harrison's numbers last season (18 games including 2 playoff games). They are ranked in descending order by number of yards:Wayne had more 180 yard games (2 vs. 0), more 100 yard games (5 vs. 4), and Wayne's nth best game was better than marvin's nth best game for all n < 11.Another way to look at this data: in their 7 worst games (ranked independently by yards), Marvin outscored Wayne by 6 yards (37 to 32). In their 11 best games, Wayne outscored Marvin by 28 yards (114 to 86).

Code:
Wayne        Harrison10-221-2     12-127-311-184-1     5-119-27-119-1      6-111-06-119-2      4-106-16-106-2      10-98-06-96-1       6-81-07-96-1       5-73-13-90-1       5-70-28-88-0       5-65-15-69-1       4-50-03-61-0       4-49-11-42-0       4-45-13-37-0       7-44-13-35-0       3-44-04-33-1       5-44-02-28-0       5-33-13-22-1       3-26-12-20-0       2-22-090-1466-14   95-1207-15
 
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I don't think he has a lot of upside nor does he have a lot of downside.  He's a relatively safe pick, he's always healthy, he's Mannings favorite target come crunch time, high powered offense, I could go on.  The age thing is moot IMO, he was 32 last year and he looked ok to me.

Harrison will get his #'s, he's no longer a #1 but shouldn't finish outside the top 10 either.
:confused: Since when did did Harrison overtake the other teams DBs as Manning's favorite target come crunch time?
 
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Show me where his skills appeared to drop off last year because of age. He's a better WR than rod smith and jimmy smith, and they didnt drop off at 33.
I think he's been dropping off since he turned 31.....2002 142/1722

2003 94/1272

2004 86/1113
skills, not numbers. clearly his numbers have been dropped off from the ridiculous totals earlier in his career because manning has other options. i dont dispute that. but skill-wise he still looked like the future HOF he is to me last year. and again, why would you project harrison's skills to erode when lesser (but very good) WRs like rod smith and jimmy smith's skills have not eroded at 33, or even 35...
 
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He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
Because Wayne will be the best WR in the best passing O this year.
only if they double cover harrison. there's no way wayne is a better WR than harrison. wayne *could* have better stats than harrison, but harrison is still a better WR than wayne (and 99% of the WR in the league) will ever be.
And there was no way that Ownes was ever going to be better than Rice.... than Holt ever being better than Bruce.... Things change. Wayne has been improving every year and steadily warrenting more looks because of it. Wayne was the leading WR in Indy last year in yds and it's only a matter of time untill the other catagories catch up too. Harrison is still a great WR, but I don't see him holding off Wayne for very much longer.
 
History certainly is not on Harrison's side.  If we say that the #5 WR has to score 200 points (0 PPR), there have only been 2 WR 33 or older to score that much in a season.  Rice with 284 at 33 and Carter 202 at 34.  No other 33 year old WR even had 190 points in a season.
except that isnt rice the WR you would compare harrison to - at least for consistent excellence throughout his career? if youre looking for the next WR to produce big numbers well into his 30s, harrison is definitely the best candidate.
Perhaps.They do have some similarity. Both HOF WR candidates on high powered teams with HOF QBs. The difference is that there was no other viable recievers in San Fran until TO in 1996.....Rice's numbers deteriorated quickly after that.
If you look at the numbers, Rice had one last truly great season (at 33) and then went downhill from there. With the bar for Top 5 set at 200 points, even Rice couldn't hit that past 33. Harrison could very well stay a top WR, but staying Top 5 for much longer will be difficult.
 
Harrison is still a great WR, but I don't see him holding off Wayne for very much longer.
See my last post... Harrison didn't hold Wayne off last year either if you include playoffs. Harrison is a future HOF'er, but his reign as the most productive Indy WR has been over for about 19 months.
 
He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
Because Wayne will be the best WR in the best passing O this year.
only if they double cover harrison. there's no way wayne is a better WR than harrison. wayne *could* have better stats than harrison, but harrison is still a better WR than wayne (and 99% of the WR in the league) will ever be.
And there was no way that Ownes was ever going to be better than Rice.... than Holt ever being better than Bruce.... Things change. Wayne has been improving every year and steadily warrenting more looks because of it. Wayne was the leading WR in Indy last year in yds and it's only a matter of time untill the other catagories catch up too. Harrison is still a great WR, but I don't see him holding off Wayne for very much longer.
Wayne is not the talent that owens or holt is, sorry. i think wayne is a very very good WR, a top 25 WR skill-wise, but not a guy who creates on his own, not an elite talent.
 
Who is the real WR1 on Indy? Manning has said that there are two WR1's, but the numbers tell a different story.

Here are Wayne & Harrison's numbers last season (18 games including 2 playoff games). They are ranked in descending order by number of yards:

Wayne had more 180 yard games (2 vs. 0), more 100 yard games (5 vs. 4), and Wayne's nth best game was better than marvin's nth best game for all n < 11.

Another way to look at this data: in their 7 worst games (ranked independently by yards), Marvin outscored Wayne by 6 yards (37 to 32). In their 11 best games, Wayne outscored Marvin by 28 yards (114 to 86).

Code:
Wayne        Harrison10-221-2     12-127-311-184-1     5-119-27-119-1      6-111-06-119-2      4-106-16-106-2      10-98-06-96-1       6-81-07-96-1       5-73-13-90-1       5-70-28-88-0       5-65-15-69-1       4-50-03-61-0       4-49-11-42-0       4-45-13-37-0       7-44-13-35-0       3-44-04-33-1       5-44-02-28-0       5-33-13-22-1       3-26-12-20-0       2-22-090-1466-14   95-1207-15
Good info. :thumbup: Interesting to note that not only did Wayne have more 100 yd games, but he was also over 80 yds 9 times to Harrison's 6.
 
He's the best WR in the best passing attack in the league. im not sure why you would bet against him.
Because Wayne will be the best WR in the best passing O this year.
only if they double cover harrison. there's no way wayne is a better WR than harrison. wayne *could* have better stats than harrison, but harrison is still a better WR than wayne (and 99% of the WR in the league) will ever be.
And there was no way that Ownes was ever going to be better than Rice.... than Holt ever being better than Bruce.... Things change. Wayne has been improving every year and steadily warrenting more looks because of it. Wayne was the leading WR in Indy last year in yds and it's only a matter of time untill the other catagories catch up too. Harrison is still a great WR, but I don't see him holding off Wayne for very much longer.
Wayne is not the talent that owens or holt is, sorry. i think wayne is a very very good WR, a top 25 WR skill-wise, but not a guy who creates on his own, not an elite talent.
You must not have watched much of Wayne then, especially in the playoffs. The guy DOES create on his own.
 
FWIW - Harrison has the best chance of any WR to be in the top 5
Agreed. Harrison has been #1, 2, 1, 1, 5, and #5 the last six years. It's crazy to expect that kind of consistency to just suddenly drop off.

Randy Moss has been #1, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, and was #1 in the games he played last year. The fact that he's changing teams makes him a little less likely to be top 5 again, but not much.

Owens is in the same category, and has been #3, 2, 2, 12, but bounced back to #4 last year when he changed teams. That probably puts him as a little less likely than Moss or Harrison, but not much. It also calms the nerves when thinking about Moss changing teams, although McNabb is a better QB than Collins.

FWIW, Holt has been #7, 8, 4, 12, 10. Not as likely. Chad Johnson has been #18, #3 and #9. Also not as likely. I do like both a lot this year, but that's based on expectation of future performance.

Again, we're looking at one of the best receivers of this era. It's hard to argue he's just going to fall off the face of the earth.
You may want to recheck Holt's 2003 numbers.I'm not saying Harrison will radically fall off......I'm saying he'll go from being #5 over the last two years to 7-10 this year. 2002, when Harrison was 30, will be his last big year. Just curious, how many yards/TDs do you think Harrison will have this year?
Yup, I copied them wrong. Make it #7, 8, 15, 2 and 7. Once again, right after a "down" year with "just" 1300 yards, when people had generally written him off, he bounced back and had an enormous year. The larger trend is that the very top receivers have some variation, but generally stay at the top for a long time, and after a down year, it seems fairly likely they'll bounce back and have an up year the next.

I'd say it's safe to pencil Harrison in for about 90 receptions, 1250 yards, and 12 TDs, which is top 5 material once again. I also think it's more likely he would blow those numbers out of the water, than that he would drop off significantly from them, which is what makes him a better pick.

 
The larger trend is that the very top receivers have some variation, but generally stay at the top for a long time, and after a down year, it seems fairly likely they'll bounce back and have an up year the next.
But generally that variation is caused more by TD variation than yardage variation....Moss yardage1998 13131999 14132000 14372001 12332002 13472003 16322004 767Pick his "down" year based on this info......besides last year (when he was injured) really not a whole lot of relative deviation there. The down year came in 2002 when he had only 7 TDs.Holt yardage2000 16352001 13632002 13022003 16962004 1372Holt's "down" year is a bit more recognizable, but the relative deviation in his yardage is still relatively low. The down year came in 2002 when he had only 4 TDs.Harrison Yardage1999 16632000 14132001 15242002 17222003 12722004 1113you would have figured 2004 to be a disaster....but since he had 14 TDs he still managed to rank at #5. Based on yardage he was #17.
I'd say it's safe to pencil Harrison in for about 90 receptions, 1250 yards, and 12 TDs, which is top 5 material once again. I also think it's more likely he would blow those numbers out of the water, than that he would drop off significantly from them, which is what makes him a better pick.
If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
 
I posted in another thread how Harrison's final ranking was an abberation due to the abnormal amount of TDs he had. It's very unusual for a WR to rank 17th in yards and 5th overall.Last year was Harrison's swan song of being an elite FF WR.I've come around and drank the Wayne koolaid I think. He's a much better value at pick 33 than Harrison is at pick 22.

 
I to believe it is time for Wayne to move past Harrison this year. I think they both will be very good, and may even finish with very similar numbers making it a push this year. The problem with taking Harrison, is that you have to do it earlier. I am not willing to take him over Wayne, if I have to do it a round earlier. For that reason, I will not be drafting Harrison this year. I'd rather go RB,RB,Wayne, then RB,Harrison,RB.

 
who cares?what really matters is the scoring difference between harrison and the baseline for wrs vs. the other players at other positions and their respective baselines.

 
I to believe it is time for Wayne to move past Harrison this year.  I think they both will be very good, and may even finish with very similar numbers making it a push this year.  The problem with taking Harrison, is that you have to do it earlier.  I am not willing to take him over Wayne, if I have to do it a round earlier.  For that reason, I will not be drafting Harrison this year.  I'd rather go RB,RB,Wayne, then RB,Harrison,RB.
was there a changing of the guard that i missed? in order for wayne to get his #s, manning needs another 49 tds. in the years when manning didnt break the td record, how did reggie do? how did marvin do?

 
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I posted in another thread how Harrison's final ranking was an abberation due to the abnormal amount of TDs he had.  It's very unusual for a WR to rank 17th in yards and 5th overall.

Last year was Harrison's swan song of being an elite FF WR.

I've come around and drank the Wayne koolaid I think.  He's a much better value at pick 33 than Harrison is at pick 22.
but you are assuming of course that wayne duplicates last season. you just better hope that manning duplicates his season.
 
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who cares?

what really matters is the scoring difference between harrison and the baseline for wrs vs. the other players at other positions and their respective baselines.
:confused: I think you might have walked in on the wrong argument.

 

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