Buckychudd
Footballguy
He has two things working against him.The first and most obvious is that his receptions and yardage are declining and will continue to do so. This is really due to three factors: - His age (just turned 33). Let's face it we all get a little slower, recuperate a little less quickly, and get a little weaker. Even a high caliber athlete like Harrison is going to feel the effects.- The emergence of Wayne and Stokley as viable alternate threats. Harrison's reception numbers will continue to drop as these guys get better and Manning's confidence in them will only improve.- The maturation of Manning as a QB. He's working through his receiver progression better and is less likely to dump the ball off to his first option.The 15 TDs last year was an aberration, no way he repeats again this year.- Part of the 15 TDs was due to Manning's incredible season which he will not repeat this year. Manning's TD average over the previous 6 years was 28/year, as high as 33 TDs in 2000. In 2004 he exploded for 49. Part of this is attributable to the rule change, part to his maturation as a QB, but even accounting for those factors it's hard to say he can repeat his 2004 numbers.- Again the emergence of Wayne and Stokley will continue to work against him, as well as Manning's maturation as a QB. He will get fewer opportunities to catch the ball.- Harrison has averaged about 1 TD every 9 times he catches the ball. Last year he had 1 TD for every 6 times. Expect him to have fewer TDs/catch this year.I figure it's almost a no brainer that Moss, Owens, and Holt outperform him this year. Leaving him as at best the 4th best receiver. I think it's very likely that Horn, Walker, and Chad Johnson do as well. I think there is an even chance that Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Harrison's teammate Wayne outperform him.He very well could end up outside the top 10 WRs this year.