Harrison will not be a top 5 WR this year (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

If you look at the numbers, Rice had one last truly great season (at 33) and then went downhill from there. With the bar for Top 5 set at 200 points, even Rice couldn't hit that past 33. Harrison could very well stay a top WR, but staying Top 5 for much longer will be difficult.

WRs that ranked in the top 5 at age 33 or older:Jerry Rice -- 33 -- 1st

Don Maynard -- 33 -- 2nd

Pete Retzlaf -- 34 -- 3rd

Cris Carter -- 33 -- 3rd

Jerry Rice -- 34 -- 4th

Irving Fryar -- 34 -- 5th

It should be noted that JT Smith in 1989 was 34, and ranked 5th in FP/G, but only played 9 games.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:

Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

How'd they do the next year?

 

[ko-jack]

If you look at the numbers, Rice had one last truly great season (at 33) and then went downhill from there.  With the bar for Top 5 set at 200 points, even Rice couldn't hit that past 33.  Harrison could very well stay a top WR, but staying Top 5 for much longer will be difficult.

WRs that ranked in the top 5 at age 33 or older:Jerry Rice -- 33 -- 1st

Don Maynard -- 33 -- 2nd

Pete Retzlaf -- 34 -- 3rd

Cris Carter -- 33 -- 3rd

Jerry Rice -- 34 -- 4th

Irving Fryar -- 34 -- 5th

It should be noted that JT Smith in 1989 was 34, and ranked 5th in FP/G, but only played 9 games.

did any of those guys play on the 2005 colts?

 

[Chase Stuart]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

 

[bostonfred]

Another interesting case study for this discussion is Holt and Bruce. Back in 1995, Bruce had a 119 catch, 1781 yard, 13 TD season that was downright Harrisonesque. In 1996, he followed that up with 84 catches for 1338 yards and 7 TDs. Unfortunately, we'll never know what Bruce's averages would have been, because hamstring injuries limited him to 17 games in the next two years. In 1999, Bruce had his first healthy season in years and has only missed one game since. He put up 77 catches for 1165 yards and 12 TDs. This was also Holt's rookie season, when Holt put up 52 for 788 yards and 6 TDs, and Faulk's first season as a Ram, where he had 87 catches for 1048 yards and 5 TDs. Three players breaking 3000 receiving yards between them - sounds familiar. And Kurt Warner had the kind of year nobody thought could be repeated. In 2000, Holt improved dramatically, with 82 receptions for 1635 yards and 6 TDs. Warner was also hurt and missed 5 games. You'd think Bruce's numbers would have dropped off, but they also increased in every area except TDs, to 87 catches for 1471 yards and 9 TDs. Marshall Faulk's receiving numbers dropped off a little, to 81 for 830, but he caught 8 TDs. In 2001, Warner was back to full strength, and while Faulk missed a couple games, he still had 83 receptions for 765 yards. Holt dipped down to 1363 yards, and Bruce to 1106 yards. It appears the numbers came off Holt and Bruce evenly, but not Faulk. In 2002, Bruce caught 15 more balls, but for fewer yards, as the Warner/Bulger combo split time. Holt's and Faulk's numbers responded similarly. In 2003, Bulger appeared to strongly prefer Holt to Bruce, and Holt had what appears to be a career year with 117 catches for 1696 yards and 12 TDs, all career highs. Faulk's numbers suffered, as he missed 5 games, and so did Bruce's. In 2004, Bulger grew comfortable with both receivers. Holt's numbers dropped back to 94/1372/10, while Bruce had a very respectable 89/1292/6. Faulk's numbers dropped off significantly, though, and Stephen Jackson didn't pick them back up. As a case study, there's a lot of similarities here. Unfortunately, Warner's injury, the Warner/Bulger replacement, and Faulk getting hurt all skew the results a little. But here's some possible takeaways: - It's possible for a young receiver to improve at the same time that the veteran also improves, and still support a third 1000 yard receiver. Look at 2000. - It's possible for a QB to hone in to one receiver, then start looking more to the other and have their numbers come together. Look at 2004. - When the QB starts spreading the ball around more, it's likely that his safety valve receiver will still get his. Look at 2001. No, I don't expect Indy to look just like the Rams. But I think it's interesting to see how another similar team did when they added a young "1A" receiver to their stud receiver.

 

[Banger]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe?  I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

 

[Buckychudd]

using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year. in terms of ADP, harrison is a safer pick. its not just stats, its intagibles in FF. this isnt baseball

10 TDs and 1200 yards should put him outside the top 10 WRs.Even if you bump him up a few based on being a "safe" pick......it would be hard to justify him being better than the 7th WR taken.

10 being a worse case senario. 1200 being a worse case senario. dont forget his 90 catches in ppr leagues. 7wr taken? lolits hard for to justify FBGs approving the registration for your account

In a ppr league he will be more valuable.....might even crack the top 5.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Another interesting case study for this discussion is Holt and Bruce.

Back in 1995, Bruce had a 119 catch, 1781 yard, 13 TD season that was downright Harrisonesque. In 1996, he followed that up with 84 catches for 1338 yards and 7 TDs. Unfortunately, we'll never know what Bruce's averages would have been, because hamstring injuries limited him to 17 games in the next two years.

In 1999, Bruce had his first healthy season in years and has only missed one game since. He put up 77 catches for 1165 yards and 12 TDs. This was also Holt's rookie season, when Holt put up 52 for 788 yards and 6 TDs, and Faulk's first season as a Ram, where he had 87 catches for 1048 yards and 5 TDs. Three players breaking 3000 receiving yards between them - sounds familiar. And Kurt Warner had the kind of year nobody thought could be repeated.

In 2000, Holt improved dramatically, with 82 receptions for 1635 yards and 6 TDs. Warner was also hurt and missed 5 games. You'd think Bruce's numbers would have dropped off, but they also increased in every area except TDs, to 87 catches for 1471 yards and 9 TDs. Marshall Faulk's receiving numbers dropped off a little, to 81 for 830, but he caught 8 TDs.

In 2001, Warner was back to full strength, and while Faulk missed a couple games, he still had 83 receptions for 765 yards. Holt dipped down to 1363 yards, and Bruce to 1106 yards. It appears the numbers came off Holt and Bruce evenly, but not Faulk.

In 2002, Bruce caught 15 more balls, but for fewer yards, as the Warner/Bulger combo split time. Holt's and Faulk's numbers responded similarly.

In 2003, Bulger appeared to strongly prefer Holt to Bruce, and Holt had what appears to be a career year with 117 catches for 1696 yards and 12 TDs, all career highs. Faulk's numbers suffered, as he missed 5 games, and so did Bruce's.

In 2004, Bulger grew comfortable with both receivers. Holt's numbers dropped back to 94/1372/10, while Bruce had a very respectable 89/1292/6. Faulk's numbers dropped off significantly, though, and Stephen Jackson didn't pick them back up.

As a case study, there's a lot of similarities here. Unfortunately, Warner's injury, the Warner/Bulger replacement, and Faulk getting hurt all skew the results a little. But here's some possible takeaways:

- It's possible for a young receiver to improve at the same time that the veteran also improves, and still support a third 1000 yard receiver. Look at 2000.

- It's possible for a QB to hone in to one receiver, then start looking more to the other and have their numbers come together. Look at 2004.

- When the QB starts spreading the ball around more, it's likely that his safety valve receiver will still get his. Look at 2001.

No, I don't expect Indy to look just like the Rams. But I think it's interesting to see how another similar team did when they added a young "1A" receiver to their stud receiver.

So what's your projection for 2005 Harrison based on what the Rams did?Manning gets hurt and Sorgi becomes the starter from now on?

 

[bostonfred]

OK, now let's look at the projection (95/1250/12) I gave earlier.  You said his career yards to TDs numbers didn't justify 12 TDs on 1250 yards:

1250 at 1996-2003 pace of 123 yards/TD = 10.2

1250 at his career pace of 118 yards/TD = 10.6

1250 at last year's pace of 74 yards/TD = 16.9

I think we can agree that 1250 yards and 17 TDs is unlikely.  1250 yards and 12 TDs doesn't seem unlikely, but I'll change my projection down from 12 to 11 TDs for the sake of discussion. 

95 catches for 1250 yards and 11 TDs would still put him in the top 5 WR most years. 

These numbers seem pretty conservative to me.  Do you think the catches are too high?  The yards?  Or does a top 5 season seem more likely than you initially thought? 

By the way, good thread.  Harrison really hasn't gotten a lot of play here recently.

Ok, the historical average for a #5 WR over the last 5 years is 194 points.1250/11 would put him at 191 points.....very close to the average for a #6 WR (190 points).

I could argue he'll finish 1150/9 which would put him at 169, at about #11 (average of 170).

I think he'll actually finish at close to 1200/10, or 180 points, putting him at about the #8 spot (average of 182 points).

I'll draft him at #7 due to the "saftey" factor.

When you say the "safety factor", it seems like you mean "The worst I can see him being is WR11. I think WR5 or WR6 seems reasonable. It seems unlikely he'll jump up to WR1". If that's really what you mean, I think most people here agree with you. Not quite as sensational as "Harrison will not be a top 5 WR this year", but it was a good discussion.

 

[bostonfred]

So what's your projection for 2005 Harrison based on what the Rams did?

Manning gets hurt and Sorgi becomes the starter from now on?

No.

 

[Buckychudd]

When you say the "safety factor", it seems like you mean "The worst I can see him being is WR11. I think WR5 or WR6 seems reasonable. It seems unlikely he'll jump up to WR1".

If that's really what you mean, I think most people here agree with you. Not quite as sensational as "Harrison will not be a top 5 WR this year", but it was a good discussion.

Actually more like....The worst I can see him being is WR13. Best case I think he's WR5-6. No way in hell he's WR1. I actually think he'll finish the year as WR8-9.

 

[Buckychudd]

Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.

That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.

Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

Are you saying it is normal cause four other guys have done it?

Or you're saying it's not normal since only four other guys have done it?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.

That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.

Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

Are you saying it is normal cause four other guys have done it?

Or you're saying it's not normal since only four other guys have done it?

That's up to you. I just thought I'd present some data.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

So what's your projection for 2005 Harrison based on what the Rams did?

Manning gets hurt and Sorgi becomes the starter from now on?

No.

Okay so what's your prediction based on the Rams model? It was a serious question with a joke appended at the end.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.

That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.

Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

Are you saying it is normal cause four other guys have done it?

Or you're saying it's not normal since only four other guys have done it?

That's up to you. I just thought I'd present some data.

Mind presenting the rest? How old where they all, and how'd they do in year N+1?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.

That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.

Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

Are you saying it is normal cause four other guys have done it?

Or you're saying it's not normal since only four other guys have done it?

That's up to you. I just thought I'd present some data.

Mind presenting the rest? How old where they all, and how'd they do in year N+1?

Hey KRS,I don't really have the time to go through all that right now. All the data is available on PFR.com.

 

[Buckychudd]

WRs that ranked in the top 5 at age 33 or older:

Jerry Rice -- 33 -- 1st

Don Maynard -- 33 -- 2nd

Pete Retzlaf -- 34 -- 3rd

Cris Carter -- 33 -- 3rd

Jerry Rice -- 34 -- 4th

Irving Fryar -- 34 -- 5th

It should be noted that JT Smith in 1989 was 34, and ranked 5th in FP/G, but only played 9 games.

Rice with the next option on the team JJ Stokes Maynard with George Sauer

Retzlaff with Ron Goodwin

Carter with Randy Moss

Rice with rookie TO

Fryar with Chris Jones

So really Maynard and Carter might be in a similar situation as Harrison.

But of course Carter didn't last once Moss emerged and Rice didn't once TO emerged.

 

[sheerterror]

WRs that ranked in the top 5 at age 33 or older:

Jerry Rice -- 33 -- 1st

Don Maynard -- 33 -- 2nd

Pete Retzlaf -- 34 -- 3rd

Cris Carter -- 33 -- 3rd

Jerry Rice -- 34 -- 4th

Irving Fryar -- 34 -- 5th

It should be noted that JT Smith in 1989 was 34, and ranked 5th in FP/G, but only played 9 games.

Rice with the next option on the team JJ Stokes Maynard with George Sauer

Retzlaff with Ron Goodwin

Carter with Randy Moss

Rice with rookie TO

Fryar with Chris Jones

So really Maynard and Carter might be in a similar situation as Harrison.

But of course Carter didn't last once Moss emerged and Rice didn't once TO emerged.

Are you suggesting in your last sentence that Wayne will at some point be at the same level as Moss and/or TO?

 

[Buckychudd]

Are you suggesting in your last sentence that Wayne will at some point be at the same level as Moss and/or TO?

No, but it's not out of the realm of possiblity either.Moss was drafted 1.21

TO was drafted 3.28

Wayne was drafted 1.30

 

[bostonfred]

So what's your projection for 2005 Harrison based on what the Rams did?

Manning gets hurt and Sorgi becomes the starter from now on?

No.

Okay so what's your prediction based on the Rams model? It was a serious question with a joke appended at the end.

I'm not predicting the Colts' offense based on the Rams, but I posted some takeaways that I saw. I think Harrison is to the Colts a combination of what Faulk and Bruce were to the Rams - he's the go to guy for receiving TDs and the safety valve like Faulk, but also the veteran who still has some good speed like Bruce. I think it would take a lot of things to happen for Harrison's numbers to fall off significantly. I think Wayne had a great breakout year, but having had that great year, he may fall off a little like Holt did, still putting up a solid year, but just not quite as good. And I look at Stokley and see a WR who saw the ball a little, and kind of like Bruce and Holt when Warner spread the ball out more to Hakim and co, caused the drop in the Colts's top receivers' yards. If Stokley dips back down, I think Harrison and to a lesser extent Wayne pick those yards back up.

 

[sheerterror]

While I don't know how much draft position is an indicator of professional success, I was just curious to see if you truly think that highly of Wayne, or if you feel that he is just sort of inheriting Marvin's throne.I realize that we are focusing on 05 redrafts in this discussion, but Wayne supporters (or those who feel Harrison's decline has begun) seem to think he will be the top Indy receiver for years to come starting...well...last season; but no one has mentioned that Wayne may not even be a Colt beyond this season. I know that this is a thread in and of itself, and I'm sure it's actually been discussed on the boards already at some point - but should Wayne not be resigned following this season (given how much money the Colt's already have tied up in the 0) how do you feel this will effect Harrison in seasons beyond 2005?

 

[JAA]

FWIW - Harrison has the best chance of any WR to be in the top 5

I would give that honor to Moss, Holt, and TO.

Moss and Holt has had more injuries than Harrison. TO ... well, I have no comment on that

 

[Buckychudd]

I'm not predicting the Colts' offense based on the Rams, but I posted some takeaways that I saw. I think Harrison is to the Colts a combination of what Faulk and Bruce were to the Rams - he's the go to guy for receiving TDs and the safety valve like Faulk, but also the veteran who still has some good speed like Bruce. I think it would take a lot of things to happen for Harrison's numbers to fall off significantly. I think Wayne had a great breakout year, but having had that great year, he may fall off a little like Holt did, still putting up a solid year, but just not quite as good. And I look at Stokley and see a WR who saw the ball a little, and kind of like Bruce and Holt when Warner spread the ball out more to Hakim and co, caused the drop in the Colts's top receivers' yards. If Stokley dips back down, I think Harrison and to a lesser extent Wayne pick those yards back up.

Fair enough.But there's no way you take him ahead of Moss, TO, and Holt right? And you might think twice about taking him before Walker, Horn, CJ? Especially if you think those guys are going to be there almost a round later.

 

[jurb26]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

 

[Buckychudd]

While I don't know how much draft position is an indicator of professional success, I was just curious to see if you truly think that highly of Wayne, or if you feel that he is just sort of inheriting Marvin's throne.

I realize that we are focusing on 05 redrafts in this discussion, but Wayne supporters (or those who feel Harrison's decline has begun) seem to think he will be the top Indy receiver for years to come starting...well...last season; but no one has mentioned that Wayne may not even be a Colt beyond this season. I know that this is a thread in and of itself, and I'm sure it's actually been discussed on the boards already at some point - but should Wayne not be resigned following this season (given how much money the Colt's already have tied up in the 0) how do you feel this will effect Harrison in seasons beyond 2005?

Draft position isn't great, but it's something to think about.I like Wayne, but let's face it.....Indy is a special team. He would lose value going anywhere else.

As for Harrison's value if Wayne left. If Stokley is the #2 man I think Harrison's value increases. But I think it's more likely that they would sign another WR.

Either way I think Indy likes Wayne enough that they are going to find a way to keep him, but that is pure conjecture.

 

[sheerterror]

So hypothetically, if Wayne leaves after this season, and Harrison is back to being the clear #1 with Stokley as the #2, do you think it's possible that Harrison could go back to putting up those elite, clearcut top 5 numbers that we have seen from him over the past number of years?

 

[Chase Stuart]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

My initial thought would be that Wayne improved from 2003 to 2004.

 

[jurb26]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

My initial thought would be that Wayne improved from 2003 to 2004.

I agree and that has really been my only point this whole time. People are acting as though since Harrison still has not seen a drastic decrease in his skills, he should naturally maintian his top 5 status. I think that is flawed because never before has he had a Wayne caliber WR stealing his looks and production. The better Wayne becomes, the more balanced this ratio becomes. Manning is not the kind of QB that simply locks into one guy, at least not anymore. He will get the ball to the open playmaker. As Wayne improves, that means he is more likely to be that guy vs Harrison, who's skills are already at their peak and most likely past it.

 

[Buckychudd]

So hypothetically, if Wayne leaves after this season, and Harrison is back to being the clear #1 with Stokley as the #2, do you think it's possible that Harrison could go back to putting up those elite, clearcut top 5 numbers that we have seen from him over the past number of years?

Well, his body is on the clock.....I think we are already seeing some of the effects. I really have a hard time seeing him perfoming at a high level at 35, 36, 37, 38.In that situation he might see another burst, but the days of him topping 1500 yards are over. I can't imagine he will ever hit top 3 again.....he could see borderline #5 maxing at 1300/11.

 

[Chase Stuart]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

My initial thought would be that Wayne improved from 2003 to 2004.

I agree and that has really been my only point this whole time. People are acting as though since Harrison still has not seen a drastic decrease in his skills, he should naturally maintian his top 5 status. I think that is flawed because never before has he had a Wayne caliber WR stealing his looks and production. The better Wayne becomes, the more balanced this ratio becomes. Manning is not the kind of QB that simply locks into one guy, at least not anymore. He will get the ball to the open playmaker. As Wayne improves, that means he is more likely to be that guy vs Harrison, who's skills are already at their peak and most likely past it.

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any definitive study saying that a great WR2 hurts a WR1's stats.

 

[jurb26]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

My initial thought would be that Wayne improved from 2003 to 2004.

I agree and that has really been my only point this whole time. People are acting as though since Harrison still has not seen a drastic decrease in his skills, he should naturally maintian his top 5 status. I think that is flawed because never before has he had a Wayne caliber WR stealing his looks and production. The better Wayne becomes, the more balanced this ratio becomes. Manning is not the kind of QB that simply locks into one guy, at least not anymore. He will get the ball to the open playmaker. As Wayne improves, that means he is more likely to be that guy vs Harrison, who's skills are already at their peak and most likely past it.

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any definitive study saying that a great WR2 hurts a WR1's stats.

You need to use the term "hurt" relatively. Noone is claiming Harrison to fall off the face of the earth and everyone has stated he is still a virtual lock for top 10. The seperataion from top 5 to top is is rather small, but still it's what this thread is about.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any definitive study saying that a great WR2 hurts a WR1's stats.

I do believe there has. The better your #2 is, the more he eats into the #1s opportunities. I'm not sure what the exact tipping point is though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any definitive study saying that a great WR2 hurts a WR1's stats.

I do believe there has. The better your #2 is, the more he eats into the #1s opportunities. I'm not sure what the exact tipping point is though.

Do you recall where you read this?

 

[ko-jack]

His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be.

The REASON Harrison's yardage numbers went down and the REASON Harrison's TD numbers went up are one and the same -- Manning's great season. If Manning isn't throwing for as many TDs, that means the Colts won't be blowing teams out --> and they'll pass more. Remember that Indianapolis ranked just 15th in pass attempts last year (and 5th the year before).If the Colts TD numbers go down as a group, I'd expect the yardage numbers to probably increase. Manning was under 250 passing yards four times last year -- and in those four games, they outscored their opponents 35.25 to 12.5.

Harrison actually caught a higher percentage of Manning's passes in 2004 than in 2003, so if Manning is passing more in 2004, Harrison would likely benefit. Of course, Harrison's yardage numbers compared to the rest of the Colts WRs was historically low.

Care to explain why none of this reasoning applied to Wayne? I repeat, his rec, yds and TDs all went up for the 4th year in a row. A year in which, by your own logic, they all shouldn't have. At least not all of them.

waynes #s were so low, they could only go up. but who cares, it is possible for 2 wrs on 1 team to have great years. and considering its unlikely for stokley to go 68-1000-10, lord knows there will be enough balls to go aroundat the end of the day, harrison catches more passes than wayne, and gets a larger % of mannings tds than wayne, and harrison has put up #s when manning didnt have a record breaking year, making harrison the safer of the 2, even though wayne maybe the better value at the end of the year

 

[Buckychudd]

It's still early, but are you Harrison owners worried yet?

 

[jurb26]

It's still early, but are you Harrison owners worried yet?

I think all Harrison, Wayne, Stokely, Manning and Indy TE owners are worried at this point. How could they not be?

 

[maccabees]

I have Harrison and D.Clarke.Yes I'm worried.

 

[ericttspikes]

If Manning ends up throwing the 11 TDs he's on pace for, I'd be worried. Harrison is still the only WR who's caught a TD for Indy. The initial premise of this post was that Harrison is too old and that the other receivers would eat into his totals. I don't see that. Harrison is being productive in leading the team it receptions and TDs and close in yardage to Wayne. Manning not doing jack after 3 weeks has everything to do with Harrison's decline so far...something nobody's crystal ball could see. 49 TDs again, that I could believe...but possibly low 20's?

 

[Bloom]

If Manning ends up throwing the 11 TDs he's on pace for, I'd be worried. Harrison is still the only WR who's caught a TD for Indy. The initial premise of this post was that Harrison is too old and that the other receivers would eat into his totals. I don't see that. Harrison is being productive in leading the team it receptions and TDs and close in yardage to Wayne. Manning not doing jack after 3 weeks has everything to do with Harrison's decline so far...something nobody's crystal ball could see. 49 TDs again, that I could believe...but possibly low 20's?

harrison still has the same piece of the indy passing pie he had last year - the pie itself has just been smaller.

 

[GridironMenace]

To the OP. Way to go out on a limb and post this after 3 bad weeks. Good call. *rolleyes*

 

[jurb26]

To the OP. Way to go out on a limb and post this after 3 bad weeks. Good call. *rolleyes*

What are you talking about? This thread was started back in August.

 

[Buckychudd]

To the OP. Way to go out on a limb and post this after 3 bad weeks. Good call. *rolleyes*

Ummm, I posted it before the season started.....I'm bumping it now. But thanks for your idiotic comment.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

To the OP. Way to go out on a limb and post this after 3 bad weeks. Good call. *rolleyes*

What are you talking about? This thread was started back in August.

I think he meant that it's too early to even bump this thread.

 

[Buckychudd]

If Manning ends up throwing the 11 TDs he's on pace for, I'd be worried. Harrison is still the only WR who's caught a TD for Indy. The initial premise of this post was that Harrison is too old and that the other receivers would eat into his totals. I don't see that. Harrison is being productive in leading the team it receptions and TDs and close in yardage to Wayne. Manning not doing jack after 3 weeks has everything to do with Harrison's decline so far...something nobody's crystal ball could see. 49 TDs again, that I could believe...but possibly low 20's?

harrison still has the same piece of the indy passing pie he had last year - the pie itself has just been smaller.

I agree it will pick up, but I'm thinking he's going to struggle to be top 10 this year let alone top 5. Not all of it is going to be his fault, obviously Manning hasn't done much yet. But Harrison isn't going to get 15 TDs to make up for his declining yardage numbers this year.

 

[Buckychudd]

To the OP.  Way to go out on a limb and post this after 3 bad weeks.  Good call.  *rolleyes*

What are you talking about? This thread was started back in August.

I think he meant that it's too early to even bump this thread.

I said it's early yet.....but he has played 20% of his games from a FF perspective.

 

[lod2005]

My trade for Jamal Lewis and a 2007 1st Rd. pick keeps looking better and better.

 

[Buckychudd]

I didn't figure it would be fair to have bumped this last week and not this week.He had a very good game....and his next three are against weak Ds.I still feel comfortable with him not making the top 5.

 

[18695]

I didn't figure it would be fair to have bumped this last week and not this week.

He had a very good game....and his next three are against weak Ds.

I still feel comfortable with him not making the top 5.

Its pretty meaningless. if he is very productive, he was still worth a high pick. who is ahead of him?

mccardell?

steve smith?

the fact that his #s are predicitable, safe, and he stays healthy is enough for me to look the other way if he finishes 8th

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Its pretty meaningless. if he is very productive, he was still worth a high pick.

who is ahead of him?

mccardell?

steve smith?

the fact that his #s are predicitable, safe, and he stays healthy is enough for me to look the other way if he finishes 8th

If Moss, Owens, Chad Johnson and Torry Holt finish ahead of him, it wasnt worth the pick unless the final stats are really close.

 

[stevec]

If Harrison finishes at #5, and goes as the #5 WR, how is he not worth the pick? I could see if he's more in a tier with WR's a round or more behind him, but I'd say early 3rd is about where WR5 goes.If that's him, I'd much rather have him than any of the other guys sitting there after Holt, Johnson, Owens, & Moss are gone. And round 3 will be where you start to see a bunch of WR's drafted, so if he ends up there, he's fine.He got drafted to be a solid WR1. If he does that, fine.