What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Has anyone used the KUBIAK projections? (1 Viewer)

hephner

Footballguy
I always find a lot of interesting articles at footballoutsiders.com, some fantasy related, some not.Just wondering if anyone purchased their KUBIAK projections last year, and what they thought of them?

Along with a lot of the material on FBG, they seem to have some of the best, and most extensive statistical analysis around, but how are they on predicting future performance?

 
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
I have never seen those specific projections, but in general, I find it funny how people pick one or two projections or rankings out of 50 and make it seem like someone doesn't know anything.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
I have never seen those specific projections, but in general, I find it funny how people pick one or two projections or rankings out of 50 and make it seem like someone doesn't know anything.
Yeah that is pretty funny. Kevin Jones leading the NFL in rushing? What a joke. I don't even think he ran for half as much as Shaun Alexander.
 
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
I have never seen those specific projections, but in general, I find it funny how people pick one or two projections or rankings out of 50 and make it seem like someone doesn't know anything.
:confused: I like the fact that they'll make gutsy calls like that and back them up with analysis. While they aren't always right they do give you something to think about. They've also nailed some stuff in the past few years--the rapid improvement of the Chargers a few years ago comes to mind as does their recent success in predicting young QBs who haven't established a track record yet. That said, I think their strength is "unique" or outside-the-box calls and they don't do as good a job in ranking hundreds of players for fantasy football purposes.
 
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
I have never seen those specific projections, but in general, I find it funny how people pick one or two projections or rankings out of 50 and make it seem like someone doesn't know anything.
Yeah that is pretty funny. Kevin Jones leading the NFL in rushing? What a joke. I don't even think he ran for half as much as Shaun Alexander.
You're looking at one prediction out of hundreds--if not thousands. You'd prefer that they take last year's stats and tweak them by +/- 10% like so many other people do? A few years ago they nailed the Chargers turnaround from 4 wins to 12.
 
:banned: I think the rest of my leagues have finally caught on to Footballguys.com, and I need something else to pair with it.
 
:goodposting:

Have been considering making a purchase as well and was hoping to find opinions of people who have used them before. I have seen in several of their articles an offhand reference to the fact that they have Frank Gore as the number 1 overall player.

 
BTW - Anyone else starting reading the 2007 PFP? Cool to see Doug D mentioned twice in the first 12 pages. :thumbup:
excellent book - couldn't put it down last night . . .
Funny scene in our house last night, as soon as we put the 8 month old to bed, my wife starts to read Harry Potter for 3 hours and I start to read this. We probably said 5 words to each other the rest of the night, lol.
 
:thumbup: Have been considering making a purchase as well and was hoping to find opinions of people who have used them before. I have seen in several of their articles an offhand reference to the fact that they have Frank Gore as the number 1 overall player.
Yep, and they have one of the big 3 RBs very, very low.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
Q-Bert said:
:lol: Have been considering making a purchase as well and was hoping to find opinions of people who have used them before. I have seen in several of their articles an offhand reference to the fact that they have Frank Gore as the number 1 overall player.
Yep, and they have one of the big 3 RBs very, very low.
Larry Johnson right? And they have Frank Gore #1? Maybe I should start paying more attention to these guys.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
Q-Bert said:
:blackdot: Have been considering making a purchase as well and was hoping to find opinions of people who have used them before. I have seen in several of their articles an offhand reference to the fact that they have Frank Gore as the number 1 overall player.
Yep, and they have one of the big 3 RBs very, very low.
Larry Johnson right? And they have Frank Gore #1? Maybe I should start paying more attention to these guys.
I haven't read PFP '07 or the projections, but it is definitely LJ that they are predicting a significant drop-off. If you read their FO on Fox articles (FO = Football Outsiders, of course), they rank by position, all NFL team from 1-32, so while these aren't specific to a single player, and rather the unit as a whole at that respective position, they do cite specific players and some analysis of why they rank them where they do. Basically, from what I gather through that, and a few other comments on him in other articles of theirs, they think that because of LJ's extremely high number of carries and touches last season, coupled with the loss of two Pro Bowl lineman in the last year, and also a new starting QB, his production is sure to drop-off, possibly considerably.They had another article early in the year I think that cited past history of RBs exceeding 300 carries in a year, and how they performed the following year. VERY few were able to repeat or come close to the success of the previous season, and many of them were injured the following year, so there is certainly evidence pointing to the possibility, rather than just pure speculation on injury potential.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I use them. They have good rationale for their projections - based on running simulations of entire seasons. I like that they base projections on similarity scores (e.g., what did similar players with similar stats at a similar age do the following year). I don't think they are any more wrong than anyone else. they also have good team metrics. For example, they nailed Edge's tumble last year based on him going from the best OL in the league to the worst OL in the league. They were right.

A few of their stats are bold, but I like that. It's much better than group think. I start with their projections and then adjust based on my personal sense of things.

 
I use them. They have good rationale for their projections - based on running simulations of entire seasons. I like that they base projections on similarity scores (e.g., what did similar players with similar stats at a similar age do the following year). I don't think they are any more wrong than anyone else. they also have good team metrics. For example, they nailed Edge's tumble last year based on him going from the best OL in the league to the worst OL in the league. They were right.A few of their stats are bold, but I like that. It's much better than group think. I start with their projections and then adjust based on my personal sense of things.
Thanks for relaying your experiences.
 
Well since this book is no longer a well kept secret...

It's a very well written book backed with lots of historical analysis. And like others have mentioned, they nailed the San Diego Chargers "unpredictable" turnaround right on the head. I use that system to this day to accurately predict teams on the come up. But feel free to discount them solely on Kevin Jones if you want.

 
I was just happy when they proved the one thing I always yelled at the TV -- that you run when you win, not win when you run.

 
I've got the PF on order and can't wait to read it. I think the guys at Outsiders do a nice job trying to look at the game from different lenses. Do they whiff sometimes? Of course, but then so do we and just about anyone else that's in the business of forecasting a sport with so many variables. At the end of the day, FO are a) diligent, b) smart, and c) committed to putting out an interesting product. That's all I need to know. :thumbup:

 
The Man with the Plan said:
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
One year Footballguys said that Kevan Barlow was a 1st-rounder. Everybody gets some wrong- even some colossally wrong. Show me an "expert" who has never made a prediction that, in hindsight, was ludicrous... and I'll show you an "expert" who has never made a prediction. Refusing to consider an entire set of rankings because of one specific ranking in the past was bad seems pretty silly.I, too, am curious how FO's fantasy rankings stood up last year. I know their NFL predictions are top-notch- according to King Kaufman's annual rankings review, FO has had the most accurate preseason projections of any NFL "expert" for 2 or 3 seasons running now.
 
I was just happy when they proved the one thing I always yelled at the TV -- that you run when you win, not win when you run.
Outsiders are awesome, in fact we have Aaron Schatz scheduled to come on the show.We'll have to start another thread on this, but there is a psychological factor that one must include when looking at how running the football assures you victories. :confused:
 
I've got the PF on order and can't wait to read it. I think the guys at Outsiders do a nice job trying to look at the game from different lenses. Do they whiff sometimes? Of course, but then so do we and just about anyone else that's in the business of forecasting a sport with so many variables. At the end of the day, FO are a) diligent, b) smart, and c) committed to putting out an interesting product. That's all I need to know. :thumbup:
:confused:
 
The Man with the Plan said:
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
One year Footballguys said that Kevan Barlow was a 1st-rounder. Everybody gets some wrong- even some colossally wrong. Show me an "expert" who has never made a prediction that, in hindsight, was ludicrous... and I'll show you an "expert" who has never made a prediction. Refusing to consider an entire set of rankings because of one specific ranking in the past was bad seems pretty silly.I, too, am curious how FO's fantasy rankings stood up last year. I know their NFL predictions are top-notch- according to King Kaufman's annual rankings review, FO has had the most accurate preseason projections of any NFL "expert" for 2 or 3 seasons running now.
RotoSource ranked them #6, but highlighted them becuase they did so well on the key positions: WR and RB. And Aaron Schatz said he completely redid the projection system for TEs and Ks because of the RotoSource evaluation, so expect better numbers. And lastly, he thinks the low score on QBs was simply bad luck - they had Hasslebeck and McNabb high and both got hurt.What I like about FO is they admit when they are wrong and are willing to go back to the drawing board to make things better. I rely heavily on KUBIAK now because, I think in the next 5 years, they will end up with the best projection system. There will be some growing pains, but I want to get on board the train early.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
ConstruxBoy said:
BTW - Anyone else starting reading the 2007 PFP? Cool to see Doug D mentioned twice in the first 12 pages. :excited:
excellent book - couldn't put it down last night . . .
Funny scene in our house last night, as soon as we put the 8 month old to bed, my wife starts to read Harry Potter for 3 hours and I start to read this. We probably said 5 words to each other the rest of the night, lol.
What was JoPa reading?
 
Looking around their site, I can't really find any discussion of the KUBIAK projections and how they do them. Everything else on their site is so unique and new, does anyone have any good insight into how the create their projections?

 
Looking around their site, I can't really find any discussion of the KUBIAK projections and how they do them. Everything else on their site is so unique and new, does anyone have any good insight into how the create their projections?
The best description is in their book - Pro Football Prospectus. I highly recommend that you buy it. Worth the $20 (includes shipping. Great reading. I just wish mine would show up soon.
 
I started reading the book yesterday and got a queasy feeling about alot of it. Now I am seriously thinking of Gore at #2 in my WCOFF league rather than Steven Jackson and seeing that ranking gave me positive feelings about it (until I researched their past #1 selections). I like the fact that they do things differently. Though they like everyone else aren't really bold. We've had new NFL TD records 4 times in 7 years and yet no one is willing to predict someone to have more than 21 or 22 touchdowns. I just don't get it (this matters for auction leagues much more than snakes since, if I have the #1 pick all I have to do is pick who will lead the league, not by how much).

Anyway, they had an article which was essentially about "don't bench your studs" where they conclude sometimes you should. But they use stats on the top 20 QBs and use that to justify benching a top 5 QB. Statistics may be useful, but they have to be the right ones.

On teh other hand, I would highly recommend the book to anyone who has an interest in stats and football. They do make you look at football a different and enjoyable way.

 
Sorry, the OP asked about using the kubiak projections, not about PFP. I believe they are the only projections I have seen that are using some sort of statistical model to make their projections rather than the more generic approach. That I think makes looking at their projections extremely valuable. I plan on running them through a VBD model (at least their top 60 + FBGs top 60) and see how different a draft would fall. I know they are plenty smart and they spend much more time on this than I can afford to, so that makes it well worth the money.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
They were obviously wrong but I can see were that would have come from. IIRC he lead the NFL in rushing the second half of his rookie season.
 
Looking around their site, I can't really find any discussion of the KUBIAK projections and how they do them. Everything else on their site is so unique and new, does anyone have any good insight into how the create their projections?
Really you just have to read their explanation of their stats and go their store to download them. I didn't see a discussion of how they develop their projections. I am sure alot of it is proprietary (which it should be).
 
ConstruxBoy said:
ConstruxBoy said:
BTW - Anyone else starting reading the 2007 PFP? Cool to see Doug D mentioned twice in the first 12 pages. :lmao:
excellent book - couldn't put it down last night . . .
Funny scene in our house last night, as soon as we put the 8 month old to bed, my wife starts to read Harry Potter for 3 hours and I start to read this. We probably said 5 words to each other the rest of the night, lol.
What was JoPa reading?
Playdog
 
The Man with the Plan said:
One year they said Kevin Jones was supposed to lead the league in rushing. That didn't work out too well.
One year Footballguys said that Kevan Barlow was a 1st-rounder.
All evidence of that has been erased. :moneybag: Actually, the same year that PFP was high on Kevin Jones, so was FBG. There was good reason for it. He led the league in rushing over the second half of the previous season (as a rookie), and looked pretty studly in doing so.I still think he's fairly studly, but he's got to be in the right situation. Maybe in 2008 . . .
 
Last edited by a moderator:
ConstruxBoy said:
BTW - Anyone else starting reading the 2007 PFP? Cool to see Doug D mentioned twice in the first 12 pages. :moneybag:
Still waiting for mine from Amazon. :shock:
I've had major problems pre-ordering from Amazon. Whenever I've done it in the past, the release date comes and goes and my order doesn't ship. I have to cancel the original order and order again to get it to ship.The same thing has happened with this year's PFP. I pre-ordered a few weeks ago. The release date was July 23, but my order hasn't shipped yet. I'll cancel and re-order next week if I need to.Someday I'll learn just to never pre-order from Amazon again, ever.
 
To answer the question in the original post . . . I ordered the KUBIAK projections last year, but never really got around to looking at them or evaluating them. So for $25, I definitely didn't get my money's worth, but that was as much my own fault (for not making the time to look at them) as anyone else's.

I do think that $25 is a steep price for a mere set of projections. I don't know what they're charging this year. I haven't been over there yet. But if they're $25 again, I won't buy them unless I know I'll be able to make time to look them over and use them for something.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
To answer the question in the original post . . . I ordered the KUBIAK projections last year, but never really got around to looking at them or evaluating them. So for $25, I definitely didn't get my money's worth, but that was as much my own fault (for not making the time to look at them) as anyone else's.I do think that $25 is a steep price for a mere set of projections. I don't know what they're charging this year. I haven't been over there yet. But if they're $25 again, I won't buy them unless I know I'll be able to make time to look them over and use them for something.
Believe it's $20 this year.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
duaneok66 said:
ConstruxBoy said:
BTW - Anyone else starting reading the 2007 PFP? Cool to see Doug D mentioned twice in the first 12 pages. :lmao:
excellent book - couldn't put it down last night . . .
Funny scene in our house last night, as soon as we put the 8 month old to bed, my wife starts to read Harry Potter for 3 hours and I start to read this. We probably said 5 words to each other the rest of the night, lol.
I did this with Eyes of the Guru last night, wife with Potter.
 
I use them. They have good rationale for their projections - based on running simulations of entire seasons. I like that they base projections on similarity scores (e.g., what did similar players with similar stats at a similar age do the following year).
This is one huge advantage of KUBIAK, that no other projections (that I've seen) do explicitly.The FO guys are not strong on ff in general, but if you combine their analysis with FBG's fantasy expertise, you've got a huge leg up.
 
I use them. They have good rationale for their projections - based on running simulations of entire seasons. I like that they base projections on similarity scores (e.g., what did similar players with similar stats at a similar age do the following year).
This is one huge advantage of KUBIAK, that no other projections (that I've seen) do explicitly.The FO guys are not strong on ff in general, but if you combine their analysis with FBG's fantasy expertise, you've got a huge leg up.
Great point.
 
Hopefully this will be OK to post...

Looking at their "default" league scoring, I do not get a lot of their QB rankings.

- Romo #21? TO + Glenn + Crayton + Witten should guarantee decent numbers by themselves.

- Leftwich #11...this I could actually kinda see, as he WAS a top 10 QB before getting hurt last year. But he's always hurt and the team obviously isn't sold on him at all. Like him as a late gamble, but not a starter!

- Bulger #13 is clearly way off to me, but there is an explanation. Apparently, both the PFP projections and the KUBIAK ones always hate the Rams, and they haven't figured out why. Aaron Schatz himself said he'd rank SJax closer to where everyone else has him. That said, however, last year definitely looks like a career season from Bulger, and he could be overrated by most.

- Eli #18. I know a lot of people love to bash him, but he's a much better fantasy QB than that. And the Giants' schedule is easier than in past years.

- Leinart #19. How else is this team going to score? He should clearly rank above Cutler, who plays in an almost opposite style of offense.

- Alex Smith #26. NFC West matchups are fantasy gold, which is part of why they put Gore #1. And he's almost as young as Brady Quinn, AND he finally has a legitimate #1 receiver.

Notice I didn't mention Vince Young at #4? That one actually makes quite a bit of sense to me in typical run-heavy leagues. He went nuts in the second half of last season, and will have to throw more often with the defense hurting and the RBs a total joke. Love the Eric Moulds signing, too - he's still a decent possession WR, which for them is an upgrade.

And then there's Tarvaris Jackson at #15. This comes from two particular bits of the projection: A 1:1 TD-INT ratio (16/16), and 600+ rushing yards. I have no idea how reasonable this actually is - any clue, homers?

I find their rankings for the other positions to be much, much better, and I will definitely pay for them again next year! A lot of the QBs just mystify me, though...

If it's not OK to discuss this content in this much detail, then I apologize and please delete this post!

Thanks,

Josh.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top