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Has Fantasy Advice Jumped the Shark? (1 Viewer)

austinball

Footballguy
Im a big fan of this site. Ive been a member for many years (so nothing personal "footballguys"). But i've been wondering lately if fantasy advice is past the point of being the helpful tool it once was.

I also subscribe to a couple other sites and this is why I ask:

  • For any given player and any given game you can find legit industry experts diametrically opposed to each other -- an in some cases absolutely dismissive of the other "experts" position
  • In the cases where there's actual industry consensus (for example, Alex Smith will feast on Philly) you still have shocking misses
  • The NFL itself is so unpredicatable even at a team vs team level, can you really confidently, consistently predict player performance?Obviously Im talking on the margin -- choosing btw QB 4 and QB 8 in a given week, not btw Brees or Pryor
I sometimes listen to Sirius radio Fantasy football channel and you have these people calling in to ask: Who should I start? Bowe or Tate? B Meyer or J Cook? The reality is nobody freaking knows. They just don't. And half the experts will be right on that call and half will be wrong. So which are you listening to THAT week?

So what does this all mean? I dont know. I know that everyone in my league also subscribes to experts. So far my league is a mess. The guy winning is the least clued in guy -- Drafted Brees #1 overall, and the Seahawks in the 7th round. But he's leading so far.

This isnt a rant. I'm 1-2 but I took alot of risks in the draft because i think thats the only way to really win since most everyone is following the same advice these days. Then its a bunch of luck.

But i just keep wondering, is there too much info out there now?

 
it is way harder to win these days with so much avalible info out there.

just read, watch and listen and use your gut.

 
The info that is worthwhile is deep insight on matchups, upcoming backups, potential overreactions to great/poor performances to maximize value relative to other's emotions. Week to week WDIS is a crap shoot.

I've found that info in dynasty is WAY more helpful than weekly info for lineup decisions in redraft.

 
Try to learn about the situations throughout the league on all the teams, and then keep that knowledge up through a continual flow of factual information, using that to form your own opinion, rather than relying on the opinions of others. Become the expert yourself and use the information overload to your advantage by distinguishing consensus thought from the nuances of your leagues' individual starting lineups and scoring metrics. You can still get an edge on your opponents even today, it's just different and more difficult than in days past.

 
The info that is worthwhile is deep insight on matchups, upcoming backups, potential overreactions to great/poor performances to maximize value relative to other's emotions. Week to week WDIS is a crap shoot.

I've found that info in dynasty is WAY more helpful than weekly info for lineup decisions in redraft.
This. I like analysis...tell me something worthwhile, like a stat, a trend, an insight, an observation from someone with an inside view. Those are useful.

Flat out just "start so-and-so" stuff isn't too helpful. I try to take that stuff and flesh it out with stats, etc. I don't like the lists of who to start that offer nothing else.

However, even then things can go amiss. For example, this week all sorts of advice and my own analysis got turned on its head with the supposed sure-shot MIN defense vs. the down and out CLE offense. In the end if your research was thorough and your decision sound, you can't be mad at yourself....it might've been a good decision but just a bad outcome. Can't get 'em all right. You're just trying to reduce the odds of losing.

 
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The best expert to listen to is yourself in regards to "who should I start this week". You know your league rules better than some generic ranking site.

The "expert" info is lemming-driven. If I wanted to know the answer to these questions I would call Faust (I suspect since he pretty much creates all the info that makes its way to the Internet I will just go straight to the source :) ).

Having said that, where the real gems come in is when you get that detailed information that looks past a simple "Matthews or Wilson this week?". The information that drills down to players who are coming up in the system, the information that breaks injury news and actually knows who the next man up is, stuff like that...that is helpful and there is a lot of that here..you just have to sift through it.

 
The info that is worthwhile is deep insight on matchups, upcoming backups, potential overreactions to great/poor performances to maximize value relative to other's emotions. Week to week WDIS is a crap shoot.

I've found that info in dynasty is WAY more helpful than weekly info for lineup decisions in redraft.
Definitely agree.

The weekly rankings do little when it comes to WDIS decisions. The rankings from the "big" sports players (NFL, ESPN, SI, etc) are especially useless.

Yesterday I saw a NFL Network Start Em Sit Em crawl during pregame...for kickers...christ.

How many poor souls are thinking, "Wait, that NFL Network blurb just told me to sit Matt Bryant! I'm off to the waiver wire!" So in that sense, I guess fantasy "analysis" has jumped the shark. Corporations hiring phony experts and crapping out useless rankings so they can gain viewers/clicks.

As roboto mentioned, digging deeper as far as which players are over/under-valued has been key for me. Sifting through the nonsense (and through the nonsense SP posters) has been enormously helpful. The majority of fantasy players tend to overreact (SHOCKING, I know), and taking advantage of this is...well....advantageous.

Above all else I trust my gut and my experience watching college/pro football for 25 years. My "talent evaluation" skills are far from perfect, but the've helped me become very successful fantasy-wise.

 
The info that is worthwhile is deep insight on matchups, upcoming backups, potential overreactions to great/poor performances to maximize value relative to other's emotions. Week to week WDIS is a crap shoot.

I've found that info in dynasty is WAY more helpful than weekly info for lineup decisions in redraft.
This. I like analysis...tell me something worthwhile, like a stat, a trend, an insight, an observation from someone with an inside view. Those are useful.

Flat out just "start so-and-so" stuff isn't too helpful. I try to take that stuff and flesh it out with stats, etc. I don't like the lists of who to start that offer nothing else.

However, even then things can go amiss. For example, this week all sorts of advice and my own analysis got turned on its head with the supposed sure-shot MIN defense vs. the down and out CLE offense. In the end if your research was thorough and your decision sound, you can't be mad at yourself....it might've been a good decision but just a bad outcome. Can't get 'em all right. You're just trying to reduce the odds of losing.
started those knuckleheads over the chiefs, and ravens... ahhh im gonna throw up

 
Try to learn about the situations throughout the league on all the teams, and then keep that knowledge up through a continual flow of factual information, using that to form your own opinion, rather than relying on the opinions of others. Become the expert yourself and use the information overload to your advantage by distinguishing consensus thought from the nuances of your leagues' individual starting lineups and scoring metrics. You can still get an edge on your opponents even today, it's just different and more difficult than in days past.
Very well said.

Best way to go about it is to separate facts from opinion, and form your own opinions based only on the facts gathered.

ETA: problem is that there is too much info out there. As they say, opinions are like #######s - everyone has one.

 
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to a certain extent yes, but you still can be successful if you go the extra mile.

i mean just look at a a sunday morning.. i can think of 4 or 5 stations thats have fantasy football news on it..

but at the same time what qualifies all of these guys, or in fact any of these guys as experts?

You still need to put the work in and forumlate an opinion on your own to be successful. i think

 
Im a big fan of this site. Ive been a member for many years (so nothing personal "footballguys"). But i've been wondering lately if fantasy advice is past the point of being the helpful tool it once was.

I also subscribe to a couple other sites and this is why I ask:

  • For any given player and any given game you can find legit industry experts diametrically opposed to each other -- an in some cases absolutely dismissive of the other "experts" position
  • In the cases where there's actual industry consensus (for example, Alex Smith will feast on Philly) you still have shocking misses
  • The NFL itself is so unpredicatable even at a team vs team level, can you really confidently, consistently predict player performance?Obviously Im talking on the margin -- choosing btw QB 4 and QB 8 in a given week, not btw Brees or Pryor
I sometimes listen to Sirius radio Fantasy football channel and you have these people calling in to ask: Who should I start? Bowe or Tate? B Meyer or J Cook? The reality is nobody freaking knows. They just don't. And half the experts will be right on that call and half will be wrong. So which are you listening to THAT week?

So what does this all mean? I dont know. I know that everyone in my league also subscribes to experts. So far my league is a mess. The guy winning is the least clued in guy -- Drafted Brees #1 overall, and the Seahawks in the 7th round. But he's leading so far.

This isnt a rant. I'm 1-2 but I took alot of risks in the draft because i think thats the only way to really win since most everyone is following the same advice these days. Then its a bunch of luck.

But i just keep wondering, is there too much info out there now?
Hey everybody craps out every once in a while. This was just your year.

I took some risks and I have the highest point total in my league. I am the ying to your yang but it all balances out. Zero sum game. Keep the faith. Given enough time the Cubs will make it to the world series and you will have a winning record in fantasy football.

 
Try to learn about the situations throughout the league on all the teams, and then keep that knowledge up through a continual flow of factual information, using that to form your own opinion, rather than relying on the opinions of others. Become the expert yourself and use the information overload to your advantage by distinguishing consensus thought from the nuances of your leagues' individual starting lineups and scoring metrics. You can still get an edge on your opponents even today, it's just different and more difficult than in days past.
Very well said.

Best way to go about it is to separate facts from opinion, and form your own opinions based only on the facts gathered.

ETA: problem is that there is too much info out there. As they say, opinions are like #######s - everyone has one.
very good point here.

you need facts to show why you should start reggie bush over demarco murrary example.

not just start bush, like most of the experts give you

 
Try to learn about the situations throughout the league on all the teams, and then keep that knowledge up through a continual flow of factual information, using that to form your own opinion, rather than relying on the opinions of others. Become the expert yourself and use the information overload to your advantage by distinguishing consensus thought from the nuances of your leagues' individual starting lineups and scoring metrics. You can still get an edge on your opponents even today, it's just different and more difficult than in days past.
Very well said.

Best way to go about it is to separate facts from opinion, and form your own opinions based only on the facts gathered.

ETA: problem is that there is too much info out there. As they say, opinions are like #######s - everyone has one.
very good point here.

you need facts to show why you should start reggie bush over demarco murrary example.

not just start bush, like most of the experts give you
Aren't most teams in competitive leagues that have Bush and Demarco Murray going to be starting both of them?

 
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The value to me of this site is:

Preseason: draft and projection dominators that I tweak with my own projections and ability to mock obsessively. Also get information on players I may not be as familiar with.

In Season: one stop shop for all fantasy related news. No searching, all info given to me easily. Also will look at weekly rankings of players just to see if there is a large discrepancy of what I think my players will do, although maybe will only have that swing my decision for a wr3.

I don't use this site for advice. I take pride in managing my own team. That ultimately makes me much better in terms of decision making. If you rely on strangers to rank your players and tell you who to start, I think not only does that take away enjoyment, but acts as a crutch, and a poor one at that.

 
I should add, part of drafting a great team is recognizing when "experts" miss, aka Vick which FBG did terribly as I pointed out in August.

Use that to your advantage, don't be a sheep.

 
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I cannot emphasize enough the need to distinguish opinions from facts.

Look at opportunities (targets, carries) not just production.

For lineup choices, make initial choices yourself independent of all the rankings out there. Otherwise, you can end up vacillating back and forth on the contrary positions that you find if you consult enough experts.

Look for experts that give the reasoning behind those rankings and pay far more attention to the reasoning than the ranking.

The hardest part is knowing when to be patient with a player who is underperforming vs. cutting your losses. Usually, players end up regressing to the mean after slow starts, and patience is rewarded. Specifically, I tend to think that TDs will end up reasonably close to what was expected preseason, so a wide receiver like Torrey Smith still has all of the 6-8 TDs we expected him to score out there. (Think Dez Bryant last season.) On the other hand, if a situation has dramatically worsened, until and unless changes are made, you must adjust your forecast appropriately. (Vincent Jackson is not going to approach last year's numbers unless Glennon is given a chance and is sufficiently talented to get him the ball.)

In leagues in which you have a long history, study tendencies of other owners and the league as a whole to help gain advantages in draft/auction preparation. To me, this is very underrated among even very knowledgeable and experienced FF owners.

I hit a slump from 2006-2009 because I got a little lazy and trusted the opinion of others almost exclusively. Since I've gotten back into doing more of my own research and forming my opinions first, I've returned to far greater success. May be just a coincidence but it is more likely that it is not.

 
The only reason the activity even exists is because you can't know. Because injuries and the outcomes are SO unpredictable. It would be kind of stupid if some guy or some source was always right. Within ten days, everyone would just go to see what he said and since he would be right ... what would be the point.

I too kind of long for the days when you could out-study the others in your league and win. That's a lot harder now. But now ten guys can all study until their eyeballs shrivel and luck will play as big or a bigger role than knowledge. And that means in a half way competitive league anyone can win.

But you can improve your odds by how much you dig and how well you can evaluate what you read/hear and how you use that. Try NOT keeping up for 3-4 weeks and see how that works for you. You can swing the odds a lot by understanding better than they do, but I don't think you can lock anything up any more in a competitive league - and that's a good thing.

 
It's funny. Five or six years ago, I would buy a FBG subscription primarily for the top 250 Forward and weekly rankings. I waited anxiously for those every week and looked at them obsessively. Now, I look at and use pretty much everything but those features. That's all you need to know.

 
Compared to most things in life Fantasy football is definitely in the bottom tier of "return you get vs. time you put in".

 
This post further supports my belief that Fantasy is less about what the "experts" say and more about opportunity, trends and historical value. I believe focusing on those 3 things each week regarding each player leading up to the game itself is the closest one can achieve to being "correct" in who to start, who to bench and who will give you a big game.

There is absolutely NO way to be 100% correct on what a player does in terms of stats. That's why I use a formula that provides a "range" numbers a player could end the day with as opposed to just one number.

I have my own process that I conduct that affects who I draft and start. But none of it is based on things like, strengthen of schedule, rankings...etc. My process is complete Math based. I guess I'm intrigued about what numbers can tell us about a certain players and what happens when you add in certain outside factors to those numbers.

Now... I don't listen to experts but I hear what they say. The biggest and newest findings for me has been historical data and the proper use of that data. Its really helped me shape my team and I've been pretty correct about who to start.

I have certain "do's and don't" and the main Don't is... DON'T CHASE POINTS. If you miss the boat, oh well. Its the reason why I didn't go after Eddie Royal, Starks, and others that have come up with some big games. Ultimately... the over-saturation of information has kind of leveled the playing field. The information is sending people in so many different directions its cause some to do things they normally wouldn't. Its all comes down to who and want you buy into. Football Guys... this is a decent buy

 
Compared to most things in life Fantasy football is definitely in the bottom tier of "return you get vs. time you put in".
that couldnt be further from the truth.if that is true for you, then you are doing it wrong.
I see both sides.. You can put a shyt load of time in, think everything is gonna be great then guys get hurt. game plan goes out of sorts and your shyt out of luck, but for the most part if your willing to make moves and read the articles and watch the games, you should be able to at least make the playoffs and come out a head

 
This post further supports my belief that Fantasy is less about what the "experts" say and more about opportunity, trends and historical value. I believe focusing on those 3 things each week regarding each player leading up to the game itself is the closest one can achieve to being "correct" in who to start, who to bench and who will give you a big game.

There is absolutely NO way to be 100% correct on what a player does in terms of stats. That's why I use a formula that provides a "range" numbers a player could end the day with as opposed to just one number.

I have my own process that I conduct that affects who I draft and start. But none of it is based on things like, strengthen of schedule, rankings...etc. My process is complete Math based. I guess I'm intrigued about what numbers can tell us about a certain players and what happens when you add in certain outside factors to those numbers.

Now... I don't listen to experts but I hear what they say. The biggest and newest findings for me has been historical data and the proper use of that data. Its really helped me shape my team and I've been pretty correct about who to start.

I have certain "do's and don't" and the main Don't is... DON'T CHASE POINTS. If you miss the boat, oh well. Its the reason why I didn't go after Eddie Royal, Starks, and others that have come up with some big games. Ultimately... the over-saturation of information has kind of leveled the playing field. The information is sending people in so many different directions its cause some to do things they normally wouldn't. Its all comes down to who and want you buy into. Football Guys... this is a decent buy
I alway wonder how these so called experts get these jobs? What is there qualifications to be a fantasy football expert? coaching experience? playing experience?

some are very good (many here (footballguys) do a very nice, but then you see some on different sites and your like how the hell did this clown get a job here)

 
Not to beat a dead horse, but your own opinion (if you follow football enough) is usually right. You know that gut feeling when you get it...

I made the dumb mistake by asking The Assistant Coach whether to start Steve Smith or Josh Gordon.....and I flopped my decision and came out on the wrong end.

do your research, make an informed opinion, draft sensibly, and Sunday morning follow your gut

 
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Futz said:
austinball said:
This isnt a rant. I'm 1-2
Yes it is.

FF is 75% luck and the other 25% is putting yourself in the best possible position to get some of that luck. Reading other opinions and news is part of that 25% you can control.
The kicker to that 75/25 rule (which I agree with, btw) is that if you play in league's where the spread in "ability" is very small (i.e. a league with several "good" owners) - then the things separating the good teams from the awful is mostly luck. Therein lies the frustration of the OP - and many others with FF.

It's like poker in that respect. Unless your playing in a league full of guppies, where your skill advantage is fairly large, the skill vs. luck component reduces the weekly results to such a small sample size relative to any advantage that it could take years across several leagues to allow the more skilled owner to win proportionally to their advantage in decision making.

 
austinball said:
Im a big fan of this site. Ive been a member for many years (so nothing personal "footballguys"). But i've been wondering lately if fantasy advice is past the point of being the helpful tool it once was.

I also subscribe to a couple other sites and this is why I ask:

  • For any given player and any given game you can find legit industry experts diametrically opposed to each other -- an in some cases absolutely dismissive of the other "experts" position
  • In the cases where there's actual industry consensus (for example, Alex Smith will feast on Philly) you still have shocking misses
  • The NFL itself is so unpredicatable even at a team vs team level, can you really confidently, consistently predict player performance?Obviously Im talking on the margin -- choosing btw QB 4 and QB 8 in a given week, not btw Brees or Pryor
I sometimes listen to Sirius radio Fantasy football channel and you have these people calling in to ask: Who should I start? Bowe or Tate? B Meyer or J Cook? The reality is nobody freaking knows. They just don't. And half the experts will be right on that call and half will be wrong. So which are you listening to THAT week?

So what does this all mean? I dont know. I know that everyone in my league also subscribes to experts. So far my league is a mess. The guy winning is the least clued in guy -- Drafted Brees #1 overall, and the Seahawks in the 7th round. But he's leading so far.

This isnt a rant. I'm 1-2 but I took alot of risks in the draft because i think thats the only way to really win since most everyone is following the same advice these days. Then its a bunch of luck.

But i just keep wondering, is there too much info out there now?
Maybe you should start to realize that there's not such thing like "fantasy expert"

 
I actually considered starting a league this year where expert help is banned. Just wit vs wit. I've kinda lost the pride of winning when all I'm doing is using someone else's analysis to make all my decisions.

 
It's called information overload. You would just be better off checking the inactive list on NFL.com before kickoff. If your guy is active, then start him. The only exception is a guy like Roddy White that is active but on a snap count. If you need to decide between two or more players, then just go with your gut. Matchup strength/weakness is also way overrated. No expert would have told you to start Cecil Shorts or Antonio Brown this week.

I would not say that fantasy advice has jumped the shark, there are just too many talking heads now. Pick one or two experts that you like and tune out all the other noise, or just go with your gut.

 
ebsteelers said:
bagger said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
Compared to most things in life Fantasy football is definitely in the bottom tier of "return you get vs. time you put in".
that couldnt be further from the truth.if that is true for you, then you are doing it wrong.
I see both sides.. You can put a shyt load of time in, think everything is gonna be great then guys get hurt. game plan goes out of sorts and your shyt out of luck, but for the most part if your willing to make moves and read the articles and watch the games, you should be able to at least make the playoffs and come out a head
I think you're "doing it wrong" as bagger put it when you're putting in more time that you like (or have) in efforts to work your way to a win, rather than taking the time you have available and enjoying it, more or less regardless of the outcome. I enjoy football, period. I enjoy pretending that I am a true GM in the NFL. I very well understand that what a true GM does for a real NFL franchise is far different from assembling a fantasy team, I literally enjoy the "fantasy" aspect and all that comes with it: draft/auction day, add/drops, and winning/losing. Yes, I even enjoy losing because it's good to care so much about something that means so little and really doesn't matter. I've already got enough negative things impacting my life that I cannot change and that are truly demoralizing if I focus on them exclusively. I'll enjoy my hobby for what it is.

If you're analyzing FF performance vs. time spent, there is a point of diminishing returns. If you enjoy what comes with this hobby, i.e, football and fantasy, then the time is well spent even if it doesn't pay off in victory.

 
I actually considered starting a league this year where expert help is banned. Just wit vs wit. I've kinda lost the pride of winning when all I'm doing is using someone else's analysis to make all my decisions.
How would one police this?

 
This hobby is very similar to gambling. Instead of wagering on the outcome of a game against a point spread, you're attempting to predict the outcome of each player's individual performance against those of your opponents. There are so many variables to account for, that it is impossible for a gambler to go 100% on their bets. Even the best professional gamblers consider 52% of their bets ending up as wins to qualify as "successful." Because of this reality that anything can happen during a game vs. what's supposed to happen on paper, we can only reasonably expect fantasy experts to be right about half of the time. You win some, you lose some, and "that's why they play the games."

Dodds and company do not have a crystal ball, nor do the other sites. What I try to do is read as many opinions as possible online, and look for a consensus. Then weigh that consensus opinion against stats and your gut feeling. Always trust your gut and own thorough research over any website's weekly rankings.

 
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It's called information overload. You would just be better off checking the inactive list on NFL.com before kickoff. If your guy is active, then start him. The only exception is a guy like Roddy White that is active but on a snap count. If you need to decide between two or more players, then just go with your gut. Matchup strength/weakness is also way overrated. No expert would have told you to start Cecil Shorts or Antonio Brown this week.

I would not say that fantasy advice has jumped the shark, there are just too many talking heads now. Pick one or two experts that you like and tune out all the other noise, or just go with your gut.
This post sums it all up for me. In this day and age, a free site could give you decent enough information to help make your decisions. The edge that a good pay site would give you in the past has been reduced with all the information available on the internet.

Right now the biggest opportunity to gain the edge back is in daily games. Daily game advice is such an untapped market that an increased focus on this would make a pay site worthwhile. (Dodds, go make a godfather job offer to Condia right now!) Its good to see FBG going that route with Fanduel and starting to pump out some strategy articles on the subject. I gravitate towards the daily game articles b/c its something that isnt out there on the internet and you can apply it and gain an edge to win some money.

 
It's always been pretty useless. Especially trying to project game stats. Ever really look at the FBG "official" projections? Let's say there are, at most, 18 QBs who might be considered "startable" in a 12-team league. The projection for every guy is 21 points, + or - 3 points. RBs all bunch up into 14 points or 7 points. That is, everyone gets 70 yards, and some get a TD and some don't. The #6 WR for the week might be projected to get 10 points as a mid-WR1 starter, the waiver-wire fodder at WR50? Projected for 7 points. When everything is so closely bunched there's no accountability. Might as well throw darts.

 
It's the same as financial advice. You need to pick someone you trust, with a system/philosophy. If you skip all over town looking for advice, you'll get different answers from everyone (and compromise your strategy by dicing it up).

I think that free advice and data are much more prevalent than it was 5 years ago (and arguably 'better'). Guys autodrafting off the Yahoo top 100 are going to do pretty well (at first...going to need to manage their roster and react to injuries). Everyone 'outed' Joique Bell as a sleeper this year, even though Lammey and Bloom have been touting the guy since he was with the Bills...that used to be dang near proprietary information.

What will continue to separate fantasy players with higher degree of success is honing in on strategies and providers you trust, and reading between the lines for things that can give you an advantage. You will have to zig when everyone zags. Or, you'll have to be more committed to taking a hard stance on players.

 
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If I was an investor I would not be touching any business that sells fantasy information. There is just so much information out there now and for free. And the info is as good as the stuff you pay for.

You gotta wonder why Dodds & Bryant are investing in other things, such as their own Fantasy Championship and daily fantasy sites.

I imagine it won't be long until we can gamble on the Monday Night game here at FBGs.

 
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Time to get past the mindset that 'drafting a QB early #1 overall is a bad choice'....
I really wish I had done that instead of using my #2 pick on Doug Martin this year. I'm 3-0 and pretty strong in my primary league, but I keep thinking about "what might have been" if I had Drew Brees instead of Tony Romo.

I laughed when someone took Peyton Manning with the sixth pic overall in that draft, and called them a guppy. They're undefeated now and probably have the strongest team in the league. Maybe I was the guppy?

Next year, for the first year in my decade of playing this game, I'm not going to follow the herd about positional draft preferences, and just go best player available.

 
LawFitz said:
Try to learn about the situations throughout the league on all the teams, and then keep that knowledge up through a continual flow of factual information, using that to form your own opinion, rather than relying on the opinions of others. Become the expert yourself and use the information overload to your advantage by distinguishing consensus thought from the nuances of your leagues' individual starting lineups and scoring metrics. You can still get an edge on your opponents even today, it's just different and more difficult than in days past.
:goodposting: You have to be your own expert - learn who to trust about what and use several different sources but ulitmately YOU should make the call - it's YOUR team

 
I pay my yearly fees because I appreciate the community Joe and David have built here. For the past 10 years+ I have enjoyed watching pundits come here 1st and then make a living elsewhere doing what they love. And don't fool yourself - they are all here.

For me; the addition of IDP knowledge and Jene's injury insight has really taken it up a notch. Otherwise a solid twitter feed gut\experience is 70% of the battle.

 
The advice and information overload doesn't bother me but the attrition due to injury gets me down at times. Increasingly, it isn't a question of "who's hurt", it's "who isn't hurt"?

 
yep fantasy football and real football is so hard to call and so up and down all this crap and time we waste talking about match ups and who will be good or bad is for the birds... ALL BS and should be for entertainment purposes only... NO ONE KNOWS DI$K

 
Ap Dijksterhuis and his colleagues have just shown that people with expertise in football are better at predicting match outcomes when they spend time not consciously thinking about their predictions.

And:

This may seem bizarre but it’s entirely consistent with Dijksterhuis’s Unconscious Thought Theory and with the folk wisdom that says it’s a good idea to sleep on a problem. According to Dijksterhuis’s theory, the subconscious is sometimes less prone to the biases that afflict the conscious mind, thus ensuring that an expert gives due weight to the most important factors.
http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2009/11/want-to-predict-the-result-of-a-sporting-even/

So there is something to following your gut, which would be based on your own knowledge and experience.

 

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