Has it ever been this bad? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

OK, I can't nail a total consensus since everyone has different opinions, but I bet a lot of first-rounds in 12-team leagues looked something like this:

1. LT

2. Sjax

3. LJ

4. Addai

5. Gore

6. Manning

7. SA

8. Westy

9. Parker

10. Rudi

11. Henry

12. Maroney

1. LT: Currently third in fantasy points in non-ppr but 14th in the NFL in rushing with a 3.4 avg

2. Sjax: Has had one good game, 0 TDs, already has missed 2 games due to injury. 28th in rushing yards, 43rd in fantasy points among RBs

3. LJ has been godawful, probably the worst performer of the top 10 given that he's been healthy. 22nd in rushing yards, 3.3 avg, 24th in fantasy scoring among RBs

4. Addai: has the the only one to have lived up to his ADP, but has already missed one game. Despite that, 2nd in fantasy scoring

5. Gore: Many feared a down year but this down? Tied for 16th in rushing, 3.8 avg, 15th in fantasy points

6. Manning: 4th in passing yards, 4th in TDs, 3rd in scoring, doing well

7. SA: just came off his worst game yet, 14th in FP behind SAMMY MORRIS, 11th in total yards, averaging 3.7

8. Westy: Injured again, for how long we should know this week. 20th in rushing yards, 4th in total yards

9. Parker: Looking like the safest RB choice of the first round right now, but ninth in FP due to lack of TDs, 1st in rushing yards

10. Rudi: 38th in rushing, 3.1 avg, missed one game, 31st in FP among RBs

11. Henry: 2nd in rushing, good avg, bad weed smoking habits. Will miss a substantial portion of the season

12. Maroney: 2 missed games, 40th in FP, 26th in rushing yards

Of this top 12, only Manning and Addai are currently in the top 12 in fantasy scoring. Of the RBs, only five are in the top 12. LEt's look at some other positions quickly:

Consensus top five QBs:

1. Manning

2. Palmer

3. Brady

4. Brees

5. Bulger/McNabb

the top 3 have worked out, but #s 4 & 5 are total busts up to this point. Only Brady and Manning are in the top five.

Consensus top five WRs: (these will vary a lot more, but)

1. Smith

2. CJ

3. Harrison

4. Wayne

5. TO

only CJ and Smith in top five

Consensus top five TEs:

1. Gates

2. Gonzo

3. Winslow

4. Heap

5. Shockey

Gates and Winslow are in.

So, I don't know if this really means anything, but it seems like RBs are the riskiest position in fantasy now. Currently they have the highest turnover as far as moving in and out of the top 12, and also generally have the most confident preseason rankings. So is this just a crazy year or is it time to start seriously rethinking the way we draft? Or is it just that it's always totally unpredictable and a little homework is still better than none? I mean, Lamont Jordan, ADP of about round 10, is the fifth-highest scoring RB in the league in fantasy. Filling out the top ten are Edge (ADP rd 3), Apete (ADP rd 5) and MB3 (ADP rd 4). Is it beleiving in last year's stats too much? The thinking, in the case of LJ, "yeah, things change, but how far off of 1700 yards rushing can you get? 300? 400?" Are we simply unreceptive to the notion that what worked like clockwork one year could be completely ineffective the next?

 

[fred_1_15301]

Nobody ever said that there wasn't luck involved in fantasy football. With all the injuries this year, many fantasy owners never even had a fair shot.

 

[FavreCo]

Between injuries, horrible QB play and horrible coaching...no. I can't ever remember so many teams where there is a wasteland of FFL talent.

Did anyone catch Byron Bustwich's 3 passes into the stands this week? You had to literally be 20 feet tall to catch them. I didn't dream that I hope. Will watch the shortcuts tonight if no one verifies it.

 

[djcolts]

Did anyone catch Byron Bustwich's 3 passes into the stands this week? You had to literally be 20 feet tall to catch them. I didn't dream that I hope. Will watch the shortcuts tonight if no one verifies it.

You're not dreaming - those 3 passes were WAAAAAY high.

 

[dornado]

1999 was pretty bad if I remember correctly... guys that were high round picks that year that went down, off the top of my head... Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, Randall Cunningham, Vinny Testaverde (both of those QBs were coming off of huge years)... I'm pretty sure there were some others.

 

[sholditch]

I said at the beginning of the year that it looks like a changing of the guard at the RB position this year. It might just be too risky to spend really high picks on RBs while this gets ironed out. I mean, can anyone who spent a 1-5 pick on Sjax, Gore, or LJ not say that they wouldn't trade any of those guys for Brady or Manning right now? The old adage is that you can only lose your league in the first round, not win it. Given the incredible RB busts on the low side of round 1 this year, maybe taking a surefire QB (ie Manning, Brady, or Palmer) in round 1 isn't such a bad idea. At least it wouldn't have been this year. Sure, you could be doing as well if you grabbed Romo in round seven, but everyone knew that Brady and Manning would be solid. Everyone acknowledged that most of the backs had big ?s this year. Even SJax was questioned. Maybe it's time to rethink "never take a QB in the first"

 

[TinHat]

This year is unlike any other

When you started out have 5-6 non-starting RB's being taken ahead of the respective starters, you knew it would be crazy

Bush>Deuce

MJD>FT

ADP>Chester

MBIII>Julius

DeAngelo>DeShaun

 

[ceo3west]

Turnover among the consensus top 10 RB's is usually about 50% every year, and this year looks like it will be 60-80% through 5 weeks. As far as the QB & WR consensus top 5, usually 2 or 3 of those will drop out and it's about on pace thus far.

When it comes to the top 10 RB's, I stopped drafting like a lemming years ago. Where many guys this year said "must take LJ 3rd overall", I drafted Parker because he appeared to be a much safer pick. While I don't like the TD sitiuation with him right now, I don't regret the pick at all. The first round for me is all about getting a guy that has the best chance of panning out, knowing the turnover rate is at least 50%.

 

[NatronIsMean]

Between injuries, horrible QB play and horrible coaching...no. I can't ever remember so many teams where there is a wasteland of FFL talent. Did anyone catch Byron Bustwich's 3 passes into the stands this week? You had to literally be 20 feet tall to catch them. I didn't dream that I hope. Will watch the shortcuts tonight if no one verifies it.

Agree - Petrino should have been instantly fired for pulling Harrington at that point in the game for Bustwich. The Harrington pick-6 was off a bobbling WR - it's not like he pulled a Grossman.MORON.

 

[Krewe]

1999 was pretty bad if I remember correctly... guys that were high round picks that year that went down, off the top of my head... Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, Randall Cunningham, Vinny Testaverde (both of those QBs were coming off of huge years)... I'm pretty sure there were some others.

Yep...I had Vinny and Jamal...busted wheels right out of the chute and I figured the season was over. But with some waiver wire work---somehow got into the league title game and won. This year, you better be realy working the add/drops unless you are just incredibly lucky. The depth of injuries/busts through round one ADP is staggering.

 

[FavreCo]

Between injuries, horrible QB play and horrible coaching...no. I can't ever remember so many teams where there is a wasteland of FFL talent. Did anyone catch Byron Bustwich's 3 passes into the stands this week? You had to literally be 20 feet tall to catch them. I didn't dream that I hope. Will watch the shortcuts tonight if no one verifies it.

Agree - Petrino should have been instantly fired for pulling Harrington at that point in the game for Bustwich. The Harrington pick-6 was off a bobbling WR - it's not like he pulled a Grossman.MORON.

Maybe it will workout for Atlanta. They need a blue chip QB and if they can keep up the horrible play, they have a great shot at Brohm. Miami is too stupid to take him. St. Louis is the monkey wrench in my plans of Brohm to Laurent Robinson who was TOTALLY wide open on one of the Bustwich wild pitches.

 

[mbuehner]

Whats amazing is that the guys outplaying their draft positions are mostly injured or in a RBBC. The only unmitigated gem that i can think of has been Ronnie Brown, and anyone that has rolled with him in the past still cant be sleeping too soundly. Personally i love this- everyone is suffering this year which means no-one is benefitting (except perhaps the RBrown/A-Pete owners). There is opportunity out there.

 

[mon]

Bush was ranked 3 in ppr leagues, 10-11 in non-ppr leagues. Thought I was getting a deal when I picked him at the 6 spot in a ppr league.