Has Tom Brady been downgraded since last offseason? (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

Seems to me that between the draft and free agency the Pats have upgraded on both sides of the ball. Brady is still young, the team is hungry after missing the playoffs despite a great regular season and based on the Cassell trade I'm assuming Tom is healthy. Moss and Welker are back and Galloway has been added too.

Now I'm not suggesting 50 TDs but if Brady was a mid to high first round pick last year, why would he not be considered as such this year?

Is it solely a question of the injury or am I missing something else?

 

[FUBAR]

He's 32, and arguably the #3 QB with injury concerns. mid-2nd sounds right to me.

 

[CalBear]

Now I'm not suggesting 50 TDs but if Brady was a mid to high first round pick last year, why would he not be considered as such this year?

Because he shouldn't have been a mid to high first round pick last year. People love to overpay for last year's production.

 

[LawFitz]

He's 32, and arguably the #3 QB with injury concerns. mid-2nd sounds right to me.

32 is not old for a QB. The ACL has had a full year to heal and Tom is not a scrambler so unless he's had setbacks it really shouldn't be an issue.The only QB I would consider above him at this point would be Brees and that would only be if I had some legitimate concerns about the injury.At this point, depending on scoring I would definitely take him earlier than mid 2nd (I think).Last year Brady was a lock first round pick in most formats. I guess what I'm trying to ask is has anything really changed other than the injury? And secondarily, is the injury really something worth downgrading him over?

 

[switz]

Last year Brady was a lock first round pick in most formats. I guess what I'm trying to ask is has anything really changed other than the injury? And secondarily, is the injury really something worth downgrading him over?

Knee injury killed Culpepper's career. Brady wasn't a scramble, but he did move around in the pocket alot, has he lost that? Can he step into his throws? Will he be a little gun shy?In many systems QBs aren't first round picks in the first place, but you add in his age, and his injuries, and concerns are bound to pop up. There are a number of QBs I'd rather have than Brady.

 

[David Yudkin]

The downgrade is due to the injury recovery and the fact he will not have played for roughly 18 months. People forget that even before the knee injury he missed almost all of training camp last year with undisclosed injuries, thought to be a foot or ankle problem. As far as his ability to return to form, he probably will have to play with a knee brace the rest of his career (at least that's what I heard), and given that many times Brady skirted near sags with a shuffle step, no one knows how that will impact his total numbers.

I think it is reasonable to expect a drop off from his insane numbers, a learning curve to get him back to form, some issues in transitioning to losing OC Josh McDaniels, and a downgrade in passing attempts with an improved running game.

 

[PatsWillWin]

STEAL

 

[Chadstroma]

Were there other major injuries in his career? I know he got knocked out a few games back a few years ago but other than that and last year, it is not like he has been fragile. NE traded Cassel away which gives you one heck of a vote of confidence in him. So I am not exactly sure why people are saying he is an injury concern.

We also need to remember that he has never been one to run. He scoots around the pocket pretty well but I am not sure how the ACL is something that really should be of huge concern in changing his game.

I think he was over rated last year but now I think he might be getting a bit under rated.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

With their WRs I think it's safe to assume Brady will be in the top 5 again. I don't know if he steps in during the regular season and is at 100% productivity, though - can your team take it if your 1st round QB has some so-so games in the first month?

That said, I do think he's still a pretty safe pick. There are just too many guys I would rather have in the 1st, including Brees if I went QB.

Not worth overthinking this. Recall the ridiculous speculation over Manning's injury last year.

 

[LawFitz]

Knee injury killed Culpepper's career. Brady wasn't a scramble, but he did move around in the pocket alot, has he lost that? Can he step into his throws? Will he be a little gun shy?

C'mon, are you really comping Brady to Culpepper? DC was way more reliant on running and last I checked Brady hasn't lost Moss. I will give you the question of stepping into his throws if the knee has not healed. But in terms of moving around the pocket, even at 80% he should still be able to do that just as effectively. Brady's pocket presence is more about feel than quickness. Gun shy? Doubt it from this guy but who knows after a major injury so I'll concede that as a possiblity.

In many systems QBs aren't first round picks in the first place, but you add in his age, and his injuries, and concerns are bound to pop up. There are a number of QBs I'd rather have than Brady.

For those of you who didn't have Brady as a 1st round pick last year the point is still the same... have you downgraded him from where ever you had him? If so why? Simply the injury?And no upgrade for the good things this year vs last (i.e. hungrier, reloaded team; no Superbowl loss hangover)?

 

[PatsWillWin]

Don't bother reading posts by switz regarding NE players.

 

[PrimUomo]

Brady cannot be doubted. He will have had a complete year to rehab and as long as it is strong enough to throw off of and he gets his lateral mobility back to move in the pocket. Also, no FO in it's right mind would have kept Cassel. A) Playing 2 QBs top money is a waste. B) Brady has won a lot.

Also, Brady isn't very injury prone. A few minor injuries but he had started every game from his ascension until week one.

 

[-baller]

Were there other major injuries in his career? I know he got knocked out a few games back a few years ago but other than that and last year, it is not like he has been fragile. NE traded Cassel away which gives you one heck of a vote of confidence in him. So I am not exactly sure why people are saying he is an injury concern.

We also need to remember that he has never been one to run. He scoots around the pocket pretty well but I am not sure how the ACL is something that really should be of huge concern in changing his game.

I think he was over rated last year but now I think he might be getting a bit under rated.

well, I don't know if this thing has any significant meaninghttp://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.p...09&teams=12

but he is getting drafted behind only brees, and at the tail end of the second.

he's had a few other injuries in his creer, but not like the knee.

he had some kind of foot injury, and the infamous shoulder that gets reported on the injury list every game.

I'm not too worried about it.

like somebody mentioned, qb's just generally get passed over in the first in favor of rb's.

plus, I suppose there'd be some question of his schedule in '07, and the fact that brees put up crazy #'s w/o colston for most of '08, and I can see why he'd get downgraded a bit when you add in the risk from the injury rehab.

I think that's mostly where the downgrade comes from --- the added risk from the injury, and the feeling that brees is more of a known commodity at this point.

personally, I think brady lights it up, but we'll see.

edit: for those who would pick several qb's in addition to brees over brady --- which?

and would any be draftable in the first?

 

[David Yudkin]

The other consideration is that his 2007 was off the charts . . . but his 2001-2006 seasons, while very good, were not anywhere near as good. I suggest people integrate/consider that when they make their projections for next year.

 

[moleculo]

Knee injury killed Culpepper's career.

losing Randy Moss killed Culpeppers career. Brady still has Moss.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am curious who these numerous super star QBs are that people want more than Brady.

Is numerous the same as two?

 

[David Yudkin]

ANother consideration is that I don't see NE leaving Brady in all game (or to the degree they did in 2007), as their goal is to have a healthy Brady for the post season. ANd I also don't see them running up the score quite like they did that season either, as exposing Brady to more hits can't be considered a good thing.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I have Brady in one league, and the thing that worries me the most about him is whether his mechanics are affected by the injury. Will he be off the mark a little as a result of over compensating because of the injury? At the very least he's bound to be rusty for the first 4 to 6 games.

 

[David Yudkin]

I am curious who these numerous super star QBs are that people want more than Brady.Is numerous the same as two?

I agree to this to a certain extent, but I'm not sure I want to burn a second round pick to get him either. His price will probably be too high for me to own him next year. I think people sometimes lose sight that dream seasons come along once in a while, but from that point on they somehow become the player's baseline performance level and expectation level.

 

[Mr. Yuk]

Marriage to supermodel = distraction. Will he still have the passion to fully commit to rehab and watching film with a new priority in his life?

 

[LawFitz]

I think it is reasonable to expect a drop off from his insane numbers, a learning curve to get him back to form, some issues in transitioning to losing OC Josh McDaniels, and a downgrade in passing attempts with an improved running game.

I forgot about this detail, but the easy transition from Weiss to McDaniels makes me think it is Belichek, not the OC who is the key cog in the coaching staff. That said, who is the new OC? Anyone with a concerning track record?I'm with you on the drop off from insane numbers but I really am having trouble thinking of any QB other than Brees who is even close to TB as the preseason fantasy #1 QB. IF healthy, Brady seems like a lock for 30 TDs and 4000 yds with major upside above those numbers.

Manning and Pip Rivers are in the next tier for me but I definitely think there is a bit of a drop off to get to them and then a big drop off from there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Marriage to supermodel = distraction. Will he still have the passion to fully commit to rehab and watching film with a new priority in his life?

Brady has been shagging some high priced talent throughout most of his career. I'm not sure how getting married would change things all that much.

 

[The Future Champs]

Now I'm not suggesting 50 TDs but if Brady was a mid to high first round pick last year, why would he not be considered as such this year?

Because he shouldn't have been a mid to high first round pick last year. People love to overpay for last year's production.

Xactly. He's a year older, and coming back from a major injury. His value had peaked following a career year, and his injury sunk a lot of teams. Why wouldn't his value drop? What sort of insane owner is going to project Brady 09 at Brady 07 numbers? I'm not saying he's going to suck, and I'd love to have him on my team, but not as a high first round pick.

Also, Brady isn't very injury prone. A few minor injuries but he had started every game from his ascension until week one.

His injury record prior to week 1 is almost irrelevant. He had a major injury, and it's very possible that his production will drop as a result.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think it is reasonable to expect a drop off from his insane numbers, a learning curve to get him back to form, some issues in transitioning to losing OC Josh McDaniels, and a downgrade in passing attempts with an improved running game.

I forgot about this detail, but the easy transition from Weiss to McDaniels makes me think it is Belichek, not the OC who is the key cog in the coaching staff. That said, who is the new OC? Anyone with a concerning track record?I'm with you on the drop off from insane numbers but I really am having trouble thinking of any QB other than Brees who is even close to TB as the preseason fantasy #1 QB. IF healthy, Brady seems like a lock for 30 TDs and 4000 yds with major upside above those numbers.

Manning and Pip Rivers are in the next tier for me but I definitely think there is a bit of a drop off to get to them and then a big drop off from there.

4000/30 seems reasonable to me if he plays 4 quarters a game and 15 or 16 games in total. If they are way up or way down I can see them pulling Brady . . . something they pretty much wouldn't do until the final minute or two of games in the past.

 

[-baller]

Marriage to supermodel = distraction. Will he still have the passion to fully commit to rehab and watching film with a new priority in his life?

Brady has been shagging some high priced talent throughout most of his career. I'm not sure how getting married would change things all that much.

yeah, he's probably going to want to get out of the house more, now.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am curious who these numerous super star QBs are that people want more than Brady.Is numerous the same as two?

I agree to this to a certain extent, but I'm not sure I want to burn a second round pick to get him either. His price will probably be too high for me to own him next year. I think people sometimes lose sight that dream seasons come along once in a while, but from that point on they somehow become the player's baseline performance level and expectation level.

I would never take a QB in the 1st and rarely the 2nd round.I just cannot think of enough QBs that I would want over Brady.I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[The Future Champs]

Marriage to supermodel = distraction. Will he still have the passion to fully commit to rehab and watching film with a new priority in his life?

Brady has been shagging some high priced talent throughout most of his career. I'm not sure how getting married would change things all that much.

Hmmm, still single?

 

[LawFitz]

What sort of insane owner is going to project Brady 09 at Brady 07 numbers?

I guess I'm in this camp.Again I don't think he's going to throw 50 TDs but he still has Moss and Welker, which were the two catalysts that took him from a top 5 QB to #1. And Galloway will be a nice #3.The injury is a concern but if he's on target in terms of rehab I don't see it as a real issue.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

What sort of insane owner is going to project Brady 09 at Brady 07 numbers?

I guess I'm in this camp.

Again I don't think he's going to throw 50 TDs but he still has Moss and Welker, which were the two catalysts that took him from a top 5 QB to #1. And Galloway will be a nice #3.

The injury is a concern but if he's on target in terms of rehab I don't see it as a real issue.

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

 

[-baller]

I think it is reasonable to expect a drop off from his insane numbers, a learning curve to get him back to form, some issues in transitioning to losing OC Josh McDaniels, and a downgrade in passing attempts with an improved running game.

I forgot about this detail, but the easy transition from Weiss to McDaniels makes me think it is Belichek, not the OC who is the key cog in the coaching staff. That said, who is the new OC? Anyone with a concerning track record?I'm with you on the drop off from insane numbers but I really am having trouble thinking of any QB other than Brees who is even close to TB as the preseason fantasy #1 QB. IF healthy, Brady seems like a lock for 30 TDs and 4000 yds with major upside above those numbers.

Manning and Pip Rivers are in the next tier for me but I definitely think there is a bit of a drop off to get to them and then a big drop off from there.

4000/30 seems reasonable to me if he plays 4 quarters a game and 15 or 16 games in total. If they are way up or way down I can see them pulling Brady . . . something they pretty much wouldn't do until the final minute or two of games in the past.

I'll have to disagree a little here, as well as take issue w/your 'running up the score' commentary.in '07 he had an entirely new corps of receivers to get accustomed to, and throwing to those guys was the best way to practice for future games and the playoffs.

this year he's got a new guy in galloway, new oc, and he's got a year's inactivity to shake off.

I'm not saying he'll be in there for the kneeldowns, but it would make sense for them to come out firing, and even if he misses the final 6 minutes, it's because he already rang up 4 td's.

 

[David Yudkin]

I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

This is where the debate gets interesting. We all know Brady has a career best of 50 TD passes. His second best season? 28 TD passes. So where should we set the over/under baseline for Brady's TD total for this year?In the history of the NFL, there have only been 4 QB to have 35 TDs more than once in a season: Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Steve Young.It sure sounds easy enough to do, but it's a lot harder than it sounds.

 

[LawFitz]

If they are way up or way down I can see them pulling Brady . . . something they pretty much wouldn't do until the final minute or two of games in the past.

This is a very good point. One I really hadn't considered. I guess I'll have to look at the schedule to help determine the likelihood of blowouts this season. I agree that if they are way ahead, Brady will be pulled this time as opposed to 2007.

 

[jurb26]

I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

This is where the debate gets interesting. We all know Brady has a career best of 50 TD passes. His second best season? 28 TD passes. So where should we set the over/under baseline for Brady's TD total for this year?In the history of the NFL, there have only been 4 QB to have 35 TDs more than once in a season: Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Steve Young.It sure sounds easy enough to do, but it's a lot harder than it sounds.

Brady has only had Moss once and that was the season he threw for 50. Coincidence? I think not. While 50 is a stretch to repeat. I think knocking Brady all the way beck to his pre-Moss numbers is a stretch as well.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Brady might make a great "Buy Low" candidate if he takes time to get his rhythm back, say 2-4 weeks if he's looking mortal, maybe you could pry him from a nervous owner before he gets going.

 

[LawFitz]

We all know Brady has a career best of 50 TD passes. His second best season? 28 TD passes.

Yes but how did his receiving corps those previous years compare to Moss/Welker?

 

[-baller]

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

who do you see as our #3 and #4 receivers when he gets cut?

 

[David Yudkin]

If they are way up or way down I can see them pulling Brady . . . something they pretty much wouldn't do until the final minute or two of games in the past.

This is a very good point. One I really hadn't considered. I guess I'll have to look at the schedule to help determine the likelihood of blowouts this season. I agree that if they are way ahead, Brady will be pulled this time as opposed to 2007.

I just asked someone and was told to expect NE to pick up with their plan and strategy from last we saw Brady and that he doesn't expect much to change. So whatever people concluded based on Brady circa 2007 may have to apply for Brady 2009 in terms of how New England game plans moving forward. Long story short, it doesn't sound like they will actively try to save Brady's hide anymore than they did before.

 

[David Yudkin]

I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

This is where the debate gets interesting. We all know Brady has a career best of 50 TD passes. His second best season? 28 TD passes. So where should we set the over/under baseline for Brady's TD total for this year?In the history of the NFL, there have only been 4 QB to have 35 TDs more than once in a season: Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Steve Young.It sure sounds easy enough to do, but it's a lot harder than it sounds.

Brady has only had Moss once and that was the season he threw for 50. Coincidence? I think not. While 50 is a stretch to repeat. I think knocking Brady all the way beck to his pre-Moss numbers is a stretch as well.

I never said we should knock Brady all the way back to his pre 2007 numbers, only that it should factor in to the equation some how. If Moss were the only consideration to putting up big TD passing numbers, using that logic Culpepper should have had 35-40 TD a year every season and Collins should have led the league in OAK.

 

[LawFitz]

I just asked someone and was told to expect NE to pick up with their plan and strategy from last we saw Brady and that he doesn't expect much to change. So whatever people concluded based on Brady circa 2007 may have to apply for Brady 2009 in terms of how New England game plans moving forward. Long story short, it doesn't sound like they will actively try to save Brady's hide anymore than they did before.

You the man, David. This is why I love this board.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

who do you see as our #3 and #4 receivers when he gets cut?

Maybe Tate assumes that role sooner than later once he's fully recovered from his injuries. Maybe Greg Lewis steps up until Tate is ready. I believe Galloway is done, but I've been wrong before.

 

[David Yudkin]

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

who do you see as our #3 and #4 receivers when he gets cut?

Maybe Tate assumes that role sooner than later once he's fully recovered from his injuries. Maybe Greg Lewis steps up until Tate is ready. I believe Galloway is done, but I've been wrong before.

From what I have heard, Tate will likely start the regular season on the PUP list (mandatory 6 games missed with up to 8 games missed IIRC) and then they will evaluate whether he could contribute later in the season. The most likely outcome is he gets IRed at some point this year and they get him with a full off-season of conditioning, practice, and learning the playbook for 2010.I have a hard time thinking that a rookie with no practice or time to work with the offense could step in and be expected to be a #3 receiver in this offense after rehabbing and recovering at the same time.If Galloway was stick a fork in him done, I doubt the Pats would have brought him in. They have have had mixed results in bringing veterans in before (the CB experiments have been disasters). Unless they think that Lewis can make a decent contribution, I don't see that they have the depth to cut Galloway before the season starts unless they have a Plan B.

 

[-baller]

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

who do you see as our #3 and #4 receivers when he gets cut?

Maybe Tate assumes that role sooner than later once he's fully recovered from his injuries. Maybe Greg Lewis steps up until Tate is ready. I believe Galloway is done, but I've been wrong before.

lewis aside, I have no idea how you cut galloway in tc because of tate.you think this would be a good idea?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I wouldn't be surprised if Galloway gets cut during training camp.

who do you see as our #3 and #4 receivers when he gets cut?

Maybe Tate assumes that role sooner than later once he's fully recovered from his injuries. Maybe Greg Lewis steps up until Tate is ready. I believe Galloway is done, but I've been wrong before.

lewis aside, I have no idea how you cut galloway in tc because of tate.you think this would be a good idea?

I didn't say they cut him in TC because of Tate. I said they cut him because he's done as a football player IMO, but I also said I could be wrong. I said that Tate may end up with the WR #3 soon, and that Lewis could hold down the fort until Tate is ready.

 

[Chase Stuart]

With their WRs I think it's safe to assume Brady will be in the top 5 again. I don't know if he steps in during the regular season and is at 100% productivity, though - can your team take it if your 1st round QB has some so-so games in the first month?That said, I do think he's still a pretty safe pick. There are just too many guys I would rather have in the 1st, including Brees if I went QB.Not worth overthinking this. Recall the ridiculous speculation over Manning's injury last year.

Recall that Manning was just QB6 last year.

 

[FUBAR]

I am curious who these numerous super star QBs are that people want more than Brady.Is numerous the same as two?

I agree to this to a certain extent, but I'm not sure I want to burn a second round pick to get him either. His price will probably be too high for me to own him next year. I think people sometimes lose sight that dream seasons come along once in a while, but from that point on they somehow become the player's baseline performance level and expectation level.

I would never take a QB in the 1st and rarely the 2nd round.I just cannot think of enough QBs that I would want over Brady.I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

I agree with this to a large extent, although I could be see taking Brees in the 2nd in a larger league. Take the 16 teamers in the mock for example, he's certainly worth taking there. But who said there were "numerous" QBs worth taking above him?

 

[iSnitch]

If anything, the guy should be upgraded from last year's rankings. He now has Greg Lewis to throw to...which should help Moss and Welker get open a lot more often.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am curious who these numerous super star QBs are that people want more than Brady.Is numerous the same as two?

I agree to this to a certain extent, but I'm not sure I want to burn a second round pick to get him either. His price will probably be too high for me to own him next year. I think people sometimes lose sight that dream seasons come along once in a while, but from that point on they somehow become the player's baseline performance level and expectation level.

I would never take a QB in the 1st and rarely the 2nd round.I just cannot think of enough QBs that I would want over Brady.I wouldn't expect record breaking numbers again but 36-42 TD is nothing to sneeze at.

I agree with this to a large extent, although I could be see taking Brees in the 2nd in a larger league. Take the 16 teamers in the mock for example, he's certainly worth taking there. But who said there were "numerous" QBs worth taking above him?

switz and chicago hooligan seemed to be starting some lemmingness about Brady being "just a guy" and easily replaceable by a number of QB.I am with you on Brees. That is one.Who else would you take over Brady?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Moss/Welker

+

Arrogant HC

+

Talented QB

+

No Running Game

=

4000 and 35 minimum, 5000 and 50 maximum

Count me in as someone who will be salivating if I can get him with an early second rounder (or maybe even late first)

*I play in a 6 point passing TD league

 

[TS Garp]

The bottom line is that he won't come at a significant discount, because there's bound to be an owner in most leagues who's convinced that 40 td's is his floor and that he has a good chance to hit 50 again. I do think that Brady has a chip on his shoulder and wants to show everyone that he hasn't missed a beat and that he can pick up where he left off. And Belichik is arrogant and stubborn enough to want the same. Or maybe he'll decide to shock the league and become a run first team. You just never know with this guy. The safe money is on something like 3,800/30.

 

[derek19]

STEAL