Help picking draft spot (1 Viewer)

[4th&inches]

I'll apologize ahead for the length of this post.

I'm in a 3yr, 12-team, standard scoring (Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, DST), Keeper league (players can only be kept if they're drafted after the 5th round).We can keep a max of 3 players. We do a draft lotto & get to choose our draft slot. 

I have the 4th choice. Picks 1 & 12 have already been taken (the person picking 12th will be keeping Beckham with his 1st round pick).

My keepers:

1. David Johnson - 6th round
   
2. Jordy Nelson - 7th round
   
3. Crowell - 8th or M. Bryant - 18th (haven't decided yet)
   

I need some help in which draft spot to choose. The below 1st/ 2nd round players will likely be kept:

1.  David Johnson (my keeper)
   
2. Beckham (kept for pick 1.12)
   
3. Devonta Freeman (kept for 4th round)
   
4. Jordan Howard (kept for 11th round)
   
5. Ajayi (kept for 9th round)
   
6. Michael Thomas (kept for 7th round)
   
7. Tom Brady (possibly - 5th round)
   

Lev Bell will obviously go #1 after that, it's a crap shoot. Here's some things i've contemplated (all assuming the person picking 3rd doesn't choose one before me):

• #2 and get A. Brown, then Elliot if he falls in the 2nd
  
• #11 - take best RB/WR fall to 11, then get Elliot/ Gronk/ BPA 
  
• #3/4/5 and get one of: Julio, AJ Green, Evans, Gordon, McCoy, in the 1st, then Zeke (if falls) / top WR/RB/ Gronk?
  

Thanks in advance for the help

 

[Gally]

I hate picking in the middle so I would go with #2 or #3 if the players you mentioned will be available.

 

[Borden]

Keep Bryant for the 18th round pick. 

At 11, go RB/RB or RB/Gronk if the backs have been throughly picked through. 

 

[4th&inches]

I hate picking in the middle so I would go with #2 or #3 if the players you mentioned will be available.

thanks for your response. Fwiw, if I pick the 11th spot, I expect 1 of the following to still be around:

• Murray
  
• Gurley
  
• AJ Green
  
• Gronk
  
• Fournette
  
• Dez
  
• Zeke (on the way back)
  

not sure if that'd change your rational

thanks again

 

[Gally]

thanks for your response. Fwiw, if I pick the 11th spot, I expect 1 of the following to still be around:

• Murray
  
• Gurley
  
• AJ Green
  
• Gronk
  
• Fournette
  
• Dez
  
• Zeke (on the way back)
  

not sure if that'd change your rational

thanks again

Not really.  I would prefer Brown or McCoy since you believe they will be there at 2 or 3.

And I would keep Bryant as your 3rd keeper.  The upside and round value is impossible to pass up.

 

[4th&inches]

Keep Bryant for the 18th round pick. 

At 11, go RB/RB or RB/Gronk if the backs have been throughly picked through. 

thanks for the advice. If I go 11, the likely RB's left will be: Murray, Gurley, Fournette, Crowell (assuming I don't keep him) since 3 other top RB's (in addition to DJ) will be kept.

Does this strategy make more sense than say: 

• picking 3/4/5 - getting one of McCoy/ Gordon then targeting another top RB/ WR/ Gronk in the 2nd?
  
• picking 2, getting AB, keeping Crowell (8th rd) over Martavis Bryant (18th)?
  

I keep going back and forth here... 

 

[Borden]

thanks for the advice. If I go 11, the likely RB's left will be: Murray, Gurley, Fournette, Crowell (assuming I don't keep him) since 3 other top RB's (in addition to DJ) will be kept.

Does this strategy make more sense than say: 

• picking 3/4/5 - getting one of McCoy/ Gordon then targeting another top RB/ WR/ Gronk in the 2nd?
  
• picking 2, getting AB, keeping Crowell (8th rd) over Martavis Bryant (18th)?
  

I keep going back and forth here... 

If you're going back and forth, then you're likely a bit of a conservative fantasy player. 

Keep Crowell, go AB and see what comes back to you. By the sounds of it, you'll probably be in good shape to either take a decent RB (for your Flex) or Gronk in the 3rd. Keeping AB gives you likely the best possible starters at WR (unless someone has a OBJ and Julio combo). So you'll have an advantage over the entire league at RB1, WR/WR. Who knows, maybe Zeke falls to you in the 3rd and you can weather the storm with DJ and Crow and once Zeke gets back you'll be a buzzsaw through the playoffs. 

Being conservative when you already have the crown jewel of FF, makes sense. Take AB and you'll be set. 

 

[4th&inches]

If you're going back and forth, then you're likely a bit of a conservative fantasy player. 

Keep Crowell, go AB and see what comes back to you. By the sounds of it, you'll probably be in good shape to either take a decent RB (for your Flex) or Gronk in the 3rd. Keeping AB gives you likely the best possible starters at WR (unless someone has a OBJ and Julio combo). So you'll have an advantage over the entire league at RB1, WR/WR. Who knows, maybe Zeke falls to you in the 3rd and you can weather the storm with DJ and Crow and once Zeke gets back you'll be a buzzsaw through the playoffs. 

Being conservative when you already have the crown jewel of FF, makes sense. Take AB and you'll be set. 

Thanks for the insight. FWIW, i'm typically not all that conservative, but as you mentioned with having DJ & Jordy in my back pocket, I can at least afford to ponder the different scenarios. 

That being said, I came up with a (somewhat crazy) potential trade assuming i take the 2 slot:

I trade Crowell (7th round pick) and pick 1.02

I get: pick 1.01

I'd then keep DJ, Jordy, and M. Bryant and then have Bell as my RB2. 

thoughts?

 

[Borden]

Thanks for the insight. FWIW, i'm typically not all that conservative, but as you mentioned with having DJ & Jordy in my back pocket, I can at least afford to ponder the different scenarios. 

That being said, I came up with a (somewhat crazy) potential trade assuming i take the 2 slot:

I trade Crowell (7th round pick) and pick 1.02

I get: pick 1.01

I'd then keep DJ, Jordy, and M. Bryant and then have Bell as my RB2. 

thoughts?

I would definitely make that trade if possible. 

 

[need2know]

Thanks for the insight. FWIW, i'm typically not all that conservative, but as you mentioned with having DJ & Jordy in my back pocket, I can at least afford to ponder the different scenarios. 

That being said, I came up with a (somewhat crazy) potential trade assuming i take the 2 slot:

I trade Crowell (7th round pick) and pick 1.02

I get: pick 1.01

I'd then keep DJ, Jordy, and M. Bryant and then have Bell as my RB2. 

thoughts?

Do it before he changes his mind

 

[4th&inches]

Thanks for all the input. I went with the #2 pick.  Now I need to work on that trade to see if he'll go for it. 

 

[wlwiles]

Thanks for all the input. I went with the #2 pick.  Now I need to work on that trade to see if he'll go for it. 

1st choice - make the trade to get 1.01 and start your draft with DJ/Bell/Jordy, or stand pat at 2 and take AB.  Can't go wrong with either. You are in a dream position in this league