Help with Dynasty Ranking system (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Being the HUGE nerd that I am, I was working on my dynasty RB rankings last night, and had it broken down by my percieved player value, year by year, for 5 years. For example, AP was at 98 every year in my rankings. While Frank Gore is a 96 this year, but goes down year by year, until he is 32 and basically a rotation guy. I was then trying to come up with an equation to average a players value out, placing more value on the current year, than the next, and so on and so on. This way, I could input a players age/carries/years played into my equation, and have the equation measure a players yearly value for the next 5 years. That way I am using history and stats, as opposed to my gut when measuring a players value down the road.

I started thinking that I would go back and look at 50 or so RB careers and statiscially map out when production drops, how drastically, after how many carries etc. Then I realized that I am not as smart as I think I am, and that this has to have been done hundreds of times by others.

So my questions to you are:

Do you know of such an equation or measure?

If not, how do you suggest I go about creating my own?

What do you use to determine a players future worth? Age, years in the league, # of carries, gut feelings, etc.

As an end result, again, I want to be able to take a X year old RB, with X number of carries, in X number of seasons, input production based on stats, and sitiuation (starting, RBBC, team, etc) and get an out put of the players value every year, for the next 5+ years, based on the history of the position.

Thanks for your help!

 

[anakin]

PM Jeff P or see his site www.dynastyguys.com

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I think you should have two values, one that reflects the value of holding a player for the full 5 years, and one that reflects his trade/perceived value over that time. The two numbers will be very different. For me, I sometimes bite the bullet and hold a guy as he enters his final years of productivity. I'm doing this currently with Randy Moss. He helped me win a championship last year, and I've got a contender again this year and I'm hoping he does it again. I've tried throwing out offers, but I get nothing but a 1.10 rookie pick, or James Jones and a 2011 2nd. Blah. I think GENERALLY the better value is to hold guys like SJax, Gore, Moss, etc unless an owner will give you good value, which I find hard to come by. Despite not getting good trade offers, these guys will be top 5 or 10 producers for last year, this year, and maybe 2011, so a "hold" value for them will be high, but a "perceived value" for them will be low. If you're trying to get technical, and it sounds like you are, I think you do an injustice to the whole system by trying to merge all factors into one quantifiable stat.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I know there is a thread on this topic where Couch Potato shows his method. It is similar to what you are asking.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=244365&hl=