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HERD's '04 NFL Mock - Round 1 (1 Viewer)

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Out of both boredom and interest, I'll be posting a series of Mock drafts between now and draft day. This is the first one and it is far from perfect, mostly because (a) its early and (b) I can't possible know what every team is looking for.

Also, this Mock assumes 3 things: Drew Henson is not back in the draft pool, Juniors that would go in the 1st come out, and there are no more trades. Obviously, all of those things will probably change in some form before draft day, as will the order. Currently, I'm sure I have the order off in a couple of places, but I put the teams in the best order I could imagine them finishing the season.

However, that doesn't make it any less fun to post. Of course I expect you all to agree, disagree, raise your voice, applaud, scold, etc. so we can all get a decent idea of where some of these guys will pan out....

Like I said, this is the first version for this year and I am but one HERD, so be gentle...

Without further ado:

HERD's MOCK DRAFT Version 1.0 - Current Draft Order

1. San Diego Chargers - Ben Rothlisberger - QB, Miami (OH) - Whoah, you say! Right out of the gate I've shocked you. Well, don't be so shocked. I think the Chargers change coaches in the offseason and the new guy gets to put his stamp on the team early. Brees is the shepherd for the next year or 2 until they turn it over to a guy that has 2 things Drew doesn't have: Size and an NFL arm. (Let the disagreement begin :thumbup: )

2. Atlanta Falcons - Robert Gallery - OT, Iowa - So you've got Michael Vick and a poor O-line? You take Gallery and let him protect Vick for the foreseeable future. A good OT is tough to find. From here on out, the Falcons draft Defense.

3. Oakland Raiders - Shawn Andrews - OT , Ark. - Oakland realizes that the O-line needs an anchor for the future. Passing on Manning startles some, but Al is ready to muscle up as that's led to success all around him. Andrews is the 2nd best in the draft.

4. Jacksonvile Jaguars - Sean Taylor - S, Miami - This one is as much of a no-brainer in my opinion as any pick in the 1st. The Jags offense is coming along, the run D looks promising. All they need is the "field general" and an improvement at DB. Taylor is the choice.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Vince Worfolk - DT, Miami - The Cards pass-rush is the worst in football. Passing on Suggs last year was the wake-up call the Cardinals needed to realize they needed an impact DT.

6. Detroit Lions - Tommy Harris - DT, OU - The second surprise as the Mooch and company decide to see which RBs drop to them in the 2nd round. They take an impact defender, and you know what? Its the right choice.

7. Cleveland Browns - Derrick Johnson - MLB, UTexas -They wish there was some O-line here, but there's nothing worth taking this high. So the Browns try and shore up their overall/Rush D with Johnson, who is this year's "Guy who raced up the draft boards after the season"

8. Pittsburgh Steelers - Eli Manning - QB, Old Miss - I think the lack of a good O-linemen here steers the Steelers into picking the surprisingly available Manning. Cowher and Co. couldn't be happier with their good fortune.

9. NY Giants - Kenechi Udeze - DE, USC - New coach needs some O-line help, but there's nothing left worth the #9 pick. So, as is the need in the NFC East, they improve the D-line.

10. Washington Redskins - Kellen Winslow - TE, UMIami - Spurrier stays on and gets the guy he wanted all along. The Dan pushes for a RB, but when Winslow falls to 10, they can't pass him up with their pass-heavy offense.

11. Houston Texans - Marlin Jackson - CB, Michigan - The Texans need to improve their Pass D, and Jackson is the best option. (*Derrick Strait is viable here as well, but I'm going with Jackson)

12. NY Jets - Roy Williams - WR, UTexas - The Jets are ELATED that they have a big-time compliment to go with Moss for the foreseeable future. Put me in the minority that says Williams is the preferred WR over Fitzgerald.

13. Buffalo Bills - David Pollack - DE, Georgia - Short of choosing another RB :) , the Bills continue to try and improve the D-line. Polack is the best available and will quickly fit in with this schitzo defensive crew.

14. Chicago Bears - Randy Starks - DT, Maryland - They need more D! If they'd stunk more, they could have had Harris, but by winning a few games, they have to settle for Starks. Gage, White, and Terrell showing life lets them pass over Fitzgerald.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Stephen Jackson - RB, Oregon St. - While I was leading the charge that Jackson would be a top pick, I forgot to look at exactly how dire things were for some teams that could wait at RB. Jackson is Gruden's wet-dream, with Wheatley size and Garner hands.

16. San Fransisco 49ers - Larry Fitzgerald - WR, Pitt - Terrell who? "The 49ers don't rebuild, they reload."

17. Green Bay Packers - Will Smith - DE, Ohio State - Packers address DE need with best player avialable at the position

18. New Orleans Saints - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio State - Continuing to work on the pass D, they pass on Strait and take Gamble.

19. Denver Broncos - Karlos Dansby - OLB, Auburn - Dansby fills a need position and immediately makes the Bronco defense much scarier then it is now.

20. Cincinatti Bengals - Derrick Strait - CB - OU - Lewis would have liked to grab a leader at LB, but Strait is too good to be ignored, especially since everybody in the division suddenly likes to throw the ball.

21. New England (from Baltimore) - Kevin Jones - RB, VTech - The Pats gamble that staying pat will still yield one of the top 2 RBs. It works, and they get the kind of quick, big RB that can help open things for Brady.

22. Minnesota Vikings - DJ Williams - LB, UMiami - Need some defense, and linebacker is a need position. Williams is a good fit here.

23. Dallas Cowboys - Cedric Benson - RB, UTexas - Parcells gets the bruising workhorse the team needs.

24. Seattle Seahawks - Deangelo Hall - CB, VTech - Seahwawks continue to upgrade D backfield.

25. Miami Dolphins - Vernon Carrey - Oline, UMiami - Miami needs some talented depth up front, and the local guy is the choice.

26. Carolina Panthers - Reggie Williams - WR, UW - Williams slips due to all the talent ahead of him, but the Panthers couldn't be happier to get a big target for their offense. (Ben Troupe is a consideration here too)

27. Indianapolis Colts - Nathan Vasher - CB, UTexas

28. New England Patriots - Michael Clayton - WR, LSU

29. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Jenkins - WR - Ohio State

30. Tennessee Titans - Nat Dorsey - Oline, GTech

31. St. Louis Rams - Marcus Tubbs - DT, UTexas

32. Kansas City Chiefs - JP Losman - QB, Tulane

(For those of you wondering, Carnell and Perry go back to back to the Lions and Steelers in round 2 :football: )

Thoughts? Updates will come about once a month...

HERD

 
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4. Jacksonvile Jaguars - Sean Taylor - S, Miami - This one is as much of a no-brainer in my opinion as any pick in the 1st. The Jags offense is coming along, the run D looks promising. All they need is the "field general" and an improvement at DB. Taylor is the choice.
What's wrong with Donovan Darius? (I'm no Jax homer, but he would appear to be good enough that SS isn't a need)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers - Eli Manning - QB, Old Miss - I think the lack of a good O-linemen here steers the Giants into picking the surprisingly available Manning. Cowher and Co. couldn't be happier with their good fortune.
Steelers
 
I'd like to say Polian isn't stupid enough to pick a CB when they clearly have bigger needs, but after taking Clark I'd say that moron is capable of anything. A PK in the 1st would not shock me.

 
I'm not high on Benson and think Dallas could get better value with that pick. But that's just me. No question they need a RB.I agree that there probably will be a receiver or two taken in the top 10. At least half of those teams could use an impact WR, and I can't imagine all of them passing up the opportunity to take one.

 
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BTW, I disagree on the Steelers taking Manning. I'm not disputing the fact that Manning might be a good one, it is just that the Steelers have more pressing needs (e.g., OLine, Defensive secondary)

 
Good call with Kevin Jones on the Pats first pick but Belichick has said a number of times that he would prefer to draft WR in the 2nd round. Since they have TWO picks in the second, he;ll most likely try to fill another need in the first. I'd bet that he'd go for offensive or defensive line on that second 1st rounder.

 
I think you guys are right about the Pats, Steelers, Browns, and Giants wanting O-line, but I can't bring myself to believe that there are more then four 1st round O-linemen, and 2 of them (Carrey, Nat) are borderline.HERD

 
Not high on Williams (WR) out of UT one bit and I believe the Texans need SAFETY help, first and foremost. If (not likely unless the move up) they have a shot at getting STaylor that would be a perfect fit for them.Note: I think more teams are going to shy away from spending such a high pick on QB, so I don't agree with pickes #1 and #8. Pitt needs more help at the O-line and RB spot.

 
Fitzgerald can't enter the draft so that one's not possible. Jones will not fall that far to NE, no way in hell.

 
Rkade, the NFl said yesterday they would not challenge Fitzgerald if he petitioned to enter the draft. Case closed.From Jason Wood's thread on this topic..."Sporting News is reporting this week (in the magazine, sorry no link) that NFL officials would not challenge Larry Fitzgerald if he petitions to enter this year's draft. Fitzgerald played a year in prep school after high school and is therefore beyond the threshold of three years after your high school class graduated. Additionally, the NFL acknowledged that Eric Swann, who didn't play college ball, got into the NFL draft under the same situation and would be a stone cold precedent for Fitz to use."HERD

 
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Well, if the Pats can't go O-line so late in the first, the next hole would be linebacker, believe it or not. Phifer, Bruschi, Johnson, McGinest and Vrabel are all getting up there and Colvin is coming off a serious injury. I'd bet New England tries to restock the core of a 3-4 defense...

 
Sean Taylor should go high if not to Jags. He could be amazing. I wonder about Miami LB's. Vilma is missing and Williams seems low. But Herd, I love your passion for the college scene :thumbup: .Now would someone fill me in on Marion Barber III of the Golden Gophers is he a senior and is heany good

 
As much as I'd hate to see the Redskins take Winslow, if Spurrier stays on, he would probably be the choice.

 
Now would someone fill me in on Marion Barber III of the Golden Gophers is he a senior and is heany good
He isn't bad. Not sure if he will succeed as an NFL RB. My gut tells me no.He is a sophmore but I cannot remember if he was redshirted and draft eligible.
 
Rkade, the NFl said yesterday they would not challenge Fitzgerald if he petitioned to enter the draft. Case closed.From Jason Wood's thread on this topic..."Sporting News is reporting this week (in the magazine, sorry no link) that NFL officials would not challenge Larry Fitzgerald if he petitions to enter this year's draft. Fitzgerald played a year in prep school after high school and is therefore beyond the threshold of three years after your high school class graduated. Additionally, the NFL acknowledged that Eric Swann, who didn't play college ball, got into the NFL draft under the same situation and would be a stone cold precedent for Fitz to use."HERD
WTF does sporting news know? Do you have an official link from the nfl? If so, then I will recant, if there isn't one then once again, he is NOT able to go into the NFL draft. End of story.
 
Nice work Herd. I really don't see the cowboys going with benson in the first. He is a guy they could possibly get in the 2nd and maybe trade down into the late first and still get although I am not big on him. I honestly like Perry better. But I'm not Bill Parcells.The other pick I wonder about is Sean Taylor at #4. The cowboys took Roy Williams (probably the best safety prospect in years) at #8 and everyone was saying they took him too early. Maybe Jacksonville does take him but not before trading down.

 
6. Detroit Lions - Tommy Harris - DT, OU - The second surprise as the Mooch and company decide to see which RBs drop to them in the 2nd round. They take an impact defender, and you know what? Its the right choice.
Great food for thought, and I'll be looking forward to subsequent versions. I've gotta quibble with this, however. DT is one of the Lions strong suits with Big Daddy Wilkinson and Big Baby Rogers. If the shore up the DL, the need spot is surely a pass-rushing DE. Is your pick just a case of Harris being the best player available, or is their another reason why you like him here, given the Lion's many other holes? I don't get to watch much (if any) college ball, so excuse me if this isn't the most astute question...
 
I think Barber is a Sophomore. Even if he's 3 years in, he'd probably want to wait and come out since potentially 10 RBs could go on the first day. (Jones, Jackson, Benson, Williams, Perry, Jones, Cobbs, Turner, Houston, Moore to name a few)HERD

 
i dont think its off to say that the steelers would take manning at all. i think they will look at RB and QB, and whatever guy they find between the two positions that they're in love with will be the pick, whether its manning, kevin jones, or chris perry or none of the above. if they are in love with guys projected to go 2nd round and beyond, then i could see a Olineman in the first, or a CB... RB and QB class is deep enough for that. really it just depends on the steelers evaluations of these guys. they are very big on personality and work ethic, which tells me that manning very well could be the guy. as a steelers homer i would love to see him in black and gold...

 
Barber was redshirted and would be draft eligible:Marion Barber III School Year: Sophomore Height/Weight: 5-11 / 210 Hometown: Plymouth, Minn. Position: RB Old School: Wayzata HS Physically-gifted running back who took a redshirt season a year ago after suffering a hamstring injury • cited as one of the top running backs for 2003 by Lindy’s • his return this season figured into Athlon naming the Gophers the second-best running back corp in the nation for 2003 and Lindy’s labeling them as the best position group in the Big Ten • had excellent spring by displaying the strength, speed and agility which make him a complete back • has shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield since returning from his injury • added 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason • will team with Thomas Tapeh and Terry Jackson II to form one of nation’s best backfields • will also be active as a kick and punt returner in 2003 • was a preseason first-team All-Big Ten pick a year ago by several publications before succumbing to injury • showed glimpses of his promise as a true freshman, running for 742 yards and seven TDs. 2002: Redshirted after suffering hamstring injury • saw action in two games, rushing for 69 yards on 19 carries • ran for 48 yards on 10 carries against Buffalo (9/21/02) • had three receptions for 25 yards • preseason All-Big Ten first-team selection by The Sporting News and Athlon. 2001 (Fr): Named third-team Freshman All-America by The Sporting News • earned Bobby Bell Award as the team’s outstanding special teams player • ran for 742 yards on 118 carries for a stellar average of 6.3 yards per carry • had seven rushing touchdowns • saw action in all 11 games as a true freshman, starting against Louisiana-Lafayette (9/6/01) and Ohio State (11/3/01) • ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per carry (6.3) among backs with over 100 carries • posted the fifth-best freshman rushing performance in school history with a 173-yard, two-touchdown game against Louisiana-Lafayette • broke team’s longest kickoff return with a 77-yard scamper against Murray State (10/27/01) • posted 158 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in win over Michigan State (10/20/01) • ran for season-long 40-yard touchdown against Spartans • ran for 84 yards on 15 carries against Ohio State (11/3/01) • carried seven times for 58 yards and a score at Illinois (10/6/01) • saw action on 352 plays • earned first letter.

 
1. Fitzgerald - If the NFL is quoted as acknowledging there is a precedent for Larry F., then I'd think that precedent trumps your skepticism of the Sporting News.2. I've heard that Harris might move to LB. I know thats a stretch, and Dline is a strong suit of the Lions, but Harris is the kind of guy that if he's "Square" and the hole on your team is "round", you break out the sandpaper and change the hole, so to speak. (Thats a terrible analogy, but I think you see what I mean).HERD

 
I think Barber is a Sophomore. Even if he's 3 years in, he'd probably want to wait and come out since potentially 10 RBs could go on the first day. (Jones, Jackson, Benson, Williams, Perry, Jones, Cobbs, Turner, Houston, Moore to name a few)HERD
Barber is in a tough position. If he comes out the draft is pretty solid at RB, if he stays he will have a big fight for playing time.
 
2. I've heard that Harris might move to LB. I know thats a stretch, and Dline is a strong suit of the Lions, but Harris is the kind of guy that if he's "Square" and the hole on your team is "round", you break out the sandpaper and change the hole, so to speak. (Thats a terrible analogy, but I think you see what I mean).
Thanks for the explanation. Although I'd probably prefer to see other needs addressed, if Harris is as good as you say, I'm sure he'll find a way to produce.
 
1. San Diego Chargers - Ben Rothlisberger - QB, Miami (OH) - Whoah, you say! Right out of the gate I've shocked you. Well, don't be so shocked. I think the Chargers change coaches in the offseason and the new guy gets to put his stamp on the team early. Brees is the shepherd for the next year or 2 until they turn it over to a guy that has 2 things Drew doesn't have: Size and an NFL arm. (Let the disagreement begin :thumbup: )
Although I wouldn't be totally surprised if they draft a QB, it won't be in the first round. SD will go defense.
 
bills won't go de if winfield goes then they will grab a cb
If both are available and the Bills don't grab Pollack or Will Smith in the 1st, I'll be shocked.I'm hoping they get a shot at Kellen Winslow personally.CB is not a pressing need. Kevin Thomas and Terrence McGee are solid, plus there will be about 20 quality CBs available in free agency this summer. The Bills NEED a pass rush and a stud DE to play opposite Schobel. Ben Troupe or a speed WR would also be key in the 2nd.
 
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I'm a huge Roethlisberger fan, and Miami (O) homer, but I don't think anyone would spend an overall #1 on a MAC QB. He's arguably better than Leftwich and Pennington when they came out of the MAC, but not worth a #1 overall. If SD is interested (and they SHOULD be), they should trade down a few spots and take him there...Just my $.02

 
1. Fitzgerald - If the NFL is quoted as acknowledging there is a precedent for Larry F., then I'd think that precedent trumps your skepticism of the Sporting News.2. I've heard that Harris might move to LB. I know thats a stretch, and Dline is a strong suit of the Lions, but Harris is the kind of guy that if he's "Square" and the hole on your team is "round", you break out the sandpaper and change the hole, so to speak. (Thats a terrible analogy, but I think you see what I mean).HERD
Hey, again, I would think this would big big news, no? And nowhere can I find it but there? Makes me think it's bunk. Anyway, Fitzgerald didn't really do much against Miami and he should wait another year IMO.By the way, speaking about Barber and Fitz, I believe the criteria is that your graduating High School class has to have completed their Senior year in college, no? So, you can come right out of HS to college, get redshirted but then you must play three full years. Or, one year private, one year redshirt and one year in your college or take one year off after HS then one year redshirt and one year ball. Many scenarios but I believe this is the rule.Finally and again I know lots of people want him to turn pro but the NFL I find VERY hard to believe that they are willing to let Fitzgerald just go to the NFL unless he meets their guidelines or then anyone can bypass college and enter the pros. No special circumstances here.
 
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What's wrong with Donovan Darius? (I'm no Jax homer, but he would appear to be good enough that SS isn't a need)Steelers
There have been rumblings that Darius' coverage skills are quite lacking. He's held the franchise tag all year. There's no way they pay him 3 Mil next year.I would really think they would go CB since Bryant is a free agent and stinks anyway.If they wanted to take a safety, I think someone would want to trade up for Wilfork that they could swap down to the 8 - 10 range and get an extra pick in the process.Other areas of need would be DE (Hugh and Brackens haven't been great) and WR (depending upon their handling of Kevin Johnson's contract).They could also look at LB and OL, but not necessarily this high in the first round.
 
Hey, again, I would think this would big big news, no? And nowhere can I find it but there? Makes me think it's bunk. Anyway, Fitzgerald didn't really do much against Miami and he should wait another year IMO.By the way, speaking about Barber and Fitz, I believe the criteria is that your graduating High School class has to have completed their Senior year in college, no? So, you can come right out of HS to college, get redshirted but then you must play three full years. Or, one year private, one year redshirt and one year in your college or take one year off after HS then one year redshirt and one year ball. Many scenarios but I believe this is the rule.Finally and again I know lots of people want him to turn pro but the NFL I find VERY hard to believe that they are willing to let Fitzgerald just go to the NFL unless he meets their guidelines or then anyone can bypass college and enter the pros. No special circumstances here.
RKade, the NFL rules stipulate that in order to be eligible for the draft, a player must be 3 years post HS graduation. Fitzgerald graduated HS in 2001. Played at a prep school for a year from 2001-2002. Played 2 years of college football at Pitt from 2002-2003. Thus, if he declares for the draft, the NFL will allow him to enter it. It's not big news because he hasn't indicated whether he plans to declare yet or not. That doesn't change the fact that he has a much better case for being eligbile than Maurice Clarett.
 
I think Barber is a Sophomore. Even if he's 3 years in, he'd probably want to wait and come out since potentially 10 RBs could go on the first day. (Jones, Jackson, Benson, Williams, Perry, Jones, Cobbs, Turner, Houston, Moore to name a few)HERD
Barber is in a tough position. If he comes out the draft is pretty solid at RB, if he stays he will have a big fight for playing time.
Agreed.Laurence Maroney will get the carries in Minny next year.
 
a few things. ive heard that derrick johnson is not going to come out. if he does, he has a chance to go top 10. i definetly think manning will be the first qb off the board. he is a manning for god's sake, and has better physical skills than payton. i watched Big Ben, and like him, but i think manning will go before himI dont see the jags taking taylor there, especially with roy williams on the board. they would love to grab a big target for leftwich, and jimmy smith is getting old.however, i would love to see the jets get roy. unfortunatly i dont see it happening, because we are winning too many worthless games right now :wall: in his recent article, kiper listed wilfork as a late first rounder. alot of people have been saying that he is out of shape and taking plays off. just some food for thoughtno way the giants dont take a o-lineman. they might have the worst line in history. collins is getting chased and killed, neutralizing the giants passing game. i dont see them passing on careyi dont think seatle will take another corner. they just got trufant. i could see them grabbing a safetyi also think fitzgerald will go higher, based on hype alone. i also dont see KC taking a qb. they have more pressing needs.nice effort though, and will all know how much diferent these mocks will look come draft time

 
Hey, again, I would think this would big big news, no? And nowhere can I find it but there? Makes me think it's bunk. Anyway, Fitzgerald didn't really do much against Miami and he should wait another year IMO.By the way, speaking about Barber and Fitz, I believe the criteria is that your graduating High School class has to have completed their Senior year in college, no? So, you can come right out of HS to college, get redshirted but then you must play three full years. Or, one year private, one year redshirt and one year in your college or take one year off after HS then one year redshirt and one year ball. Many scenarios but I believe this is the rule.Finally and again I know lots of people want him to turn pro but the NFL I find VERY hard to believe that they are willing to let Fitzgerald just go to the NFL unless he meets their guidelines or then anyone can bypass college and enter the pros. No special circumstances here.
RKade, the NFL rules stipulate that in order to be eligible for the draft, a player must be 3 years post HS graduation. Fitzgerald graduated HS in 2001. Played at a prep school for a year from 2001-2002. Played 2 years of college football at Pitt from 2002-2003. Thus, if he declares for the draft, the NFL will allow him to enter it. It's not big news because he hasn't indicated whether he plans to declare yet or not. That doesn't change the fact that he has a much better case for being eligbile than Maurice Clarett.
Well said Aaron-that is right on.RKade-Perhaps you should allow for the fact that you may be wrong occasionally and not instantly proclaim yourself to be right and the discussion to be over...
 
Thanks for the Barber info. Now lets see Rkane what are your sources on Fitzgarald. So I shouldn't believe TSN because they have no sources and believe you on yours. You are quite the flamer yes?

 
a few things. ive heard that derrick johnson is not going to come out. if he does, he has a chance to go top 10. i definetly think manning will be the first qb off the board. he is a manning for god's sake, and has better physical skills than payton. i watched Big Ben, and like him, but i think manning will go before him
TLEF-I'd say it's most likely that DJ stays here at Texas-his whole family is teachers and they really want him to graduate first (maybe just wishful thinking as a Texas fan :D )
 
RKade, the NFL rules stipulate that in order to be eligible for the draft, a player must be 3 years post HS graduation. Fitzgerald graduated HS in 2001. Played at a prep school for a year from 2001-2002. Played 2 years of college football at Pitt from 2002-2003. Thus, if he declares for the draft, the NFL will allow him to enter it. It's not big news because he hasn't indicated whether he plans to declare yet or not. That doesn't change the fact that he has a much better case for being eligbile than Maurice Clarett.
Ahhh got it, it's your HS graduating class completion of their junior, not senior year.
 

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