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HERD's '04 NFL Mock - Round 1 (1 Viewer)

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Well, here we go with Version 2.0. If you missed Version 1.0, click there and check it out.

I am still only one HERD, so I'm doing my best. Kudos to all the other Mock's that have been posted. I've tried to learn from everybody's thoughts and comments in the earlier version, but I know we'll still disagree in some spots. This version assumes a couple of things...

1. Drew Henson still isn't settled, so teams interested in QB might still draft one.

2. I get to make a trade that I think is going to happen in the most important spot - the top of the draft.

Lets get down to busines...

HERD's NFL Mock Draft - Round 1 - Version 2.0

1. Arizona Cardinals - Eli Manning QB - Ole Miss - Here's my trade. Sorry its not too terribly exciting. Green takes the coaching gig and offers Marty/SD the #3 overall and a later pick to leap over the Raiders and get the QB he wants. A QB tossing it to Boldin, Freddie Jones, Johnson, handing it to Shipp? That young offense could be nasty with the right QB on board. Manning is the guy, and Denny Green is in good shape for years to come.

2. Oakland Raiders - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - Pitt - I think Fitzgerald's coming out. The Raiders wanted Manning, but given the choice, they're not taking Rothlisberger when they've got Tui on board. Fitz gives the franchise a "face" that they need for when Rice is gone. Despite being loaded at WR (Porter, Gabriel, Curry, plus Rice and Brown), the Raiders see a chance to get a true #1 offensive WR option. Give him a year of seasoning with Rice, and Fitz and Porter will be a combo to be reckoned with for the next decade. (The Ben Rothlisberger free-fall has begun!)

3. San Diego Chargers - Robert Gallery - OT - Iowa - What a coup! Not wanting to stick around to groom another QB (Marty isn't exactly young), they get the left tackle they need to protect short-man Drew Brees. And if Brees is ineffective? No problem, LT2 can run behind Gallery all day long. The Chargers don't need a new QB as bad as they need an effective O-line, and they certainly don't want to be the team that passed on a Manning two times.

4. New York Giants - Shaun Andrews - OT - Arkansas - Coughlin would love to grab a defensive player here, but even he is smart enough to realize that O-line is the dire need. His first pick with the Jags was Boselli, IIRC. His first pick here is another talented, huge, O-lineman. I think any other personel guys would consider Rothlisberger here, but Coughlin and company are taking the O-lineman.

5. Washington Redskins - Kenechi Udeze - DE - USC Showing how reasonable I am, I don't think Gibbs jumps on a tight end like I thought Spurrier would have. As the vet coaches of the NFC East seem to understand, getting competitive in a hurry means DEFENSE. Gibbs gets his choice and takes a D-lineman to make $$$ Arrington's job easier.

6. Detroit Lions - Sean Taylor - S - Miami - A bad defensive backfield just got a lot better with the addition of a HUGE physical Safety. Taylor will be able to help in all areas of the defensive game, and is a must pick for the Lions at this point.

7. Atlanta Falcons - Vince Wilfork - DLine - Miami - Missing out on Andrews stings, but the defense isn't anything to write home about either. They gladly take Vince Wilfork and hope he can help plug up the middle in a division stocked with tough runners.

8. Cleveland Browns - Kellen Winslow II - TE - Miami - The Browns need O-line help, but nobody grades out well enough here. Similarly, they're not taking Ohio's own Rothlisberger because they got burned the last time they took a 1st round QB and Davis is interested in keeping his job. Winslow can block like a pro already so he'll help the line a bit, and he's going to sell some tickets and jerseys as he gives the Browns the name guy they desperately want and need. Toss in that he's a Miami guy and Butch will feel comfortable with him (Who do you think recruited the kid to UM?) and he'll be in an orange helmet next year. Sorry, Buffalo.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars - Roy Williams - WR - UTexas - After lots of waffling back and forth over which Williams to take, Del Rio opts for "physical" over "finesse" and takes The Legend. Sitting on their couches at home, Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor smile. Roy will fit in well with the Jags suddenly physical style of play. Joining the Titans and Colts in true contention, the AFC South is going to be fun to watch for years to come.

10. Houston Texans - Tommy Harris - DLine - Oklahoma - The Texans need to develop some sort of pass rush. As much as they would have loved Sean Taylor, he's not dropping this far. They take Harris and hope he's the defensive leader they covet for the future.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Rothlisberger - QB - Miami(Oh) -The slide stops here. Deangelo Hall was a consideration, but Cowher feels comfortable enough is his own skin to push for the "QB of the future" they desperately need. Maddox gets one more shot in '04, then its time for a change. CB will be addressed through FA.

12. New York Jets - Reggie Williams - WR - Washington - Williams gives the Jets a guy that can keep D's honest, particularly with Santana across the field. Considering the Conway experiment doens't seem to be working out as planned, Williams is too good to pass up. The new D Coordinator will be pushing for Defense, but with so many young guys already on that side of the ball, I think they'll address D through Free Agency with some reasonably priced, efficient veterans.

13. Buffalo Bills - Will Smith - DE - Ohio State - As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole. (I think there's a chance Troupe will be there in the 2nd for them. Not a big chance, but a chance.)

14. Chicago Bears - Randy Starks - DT, Maryland - They need more D! They also need someone to clog up the front so #54 doesn't see so many downfield blockers. Starks is a good fit here. Not much to get excited about, but a solid effort from the Bears.

15. Tampa Bay Bucs - Stephen Jackson - RB - Oregon State - So you say a RB will come off before #15? Don't bet on it - who, other then Pitt or Detroit would take one? Jackson gives Gruden a combo of Garner and Alstott, which makes the Bucs contenders again overnight. For the fantasy football world, not thinking Jackson (if taken by Tampa) is worth a slot in the preseason RB top-20 would be foolish.

16. San Fransisco - Rashaun Woods WR - OkState - Woods, combined with Brandon Lloyd, make Tai Streets and TO leaving palatable. Reloading at the skill positions and resigning their defensive players put the 49ers back in the NFC West hunt pretty quickly. Looks like the Bay Area battle of WR tandems will be in full swing once again. For those who think Woods is too high here, I'm banking on his showstopping pass catch and seperation ability vaulting him back into a draft position he seemed destined for last summer.

17. Cincinatti Bengals - Derrick Strait - CB - Oklahoma - Cincy needs a cover guy to handle the Hines Wards and Dennis Northcutts ( ;) )of the division. Strait is a team player and doesn't have an ounce of quit in him. This is Marvin's guy all the way.

18. New Orleans Saints - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio State -Still trying to strengthen their own pass D, the Saints take Gamble and hope he's as good as the national media would have them believe. I am not a big fan of Gamble, but I can't deny he has been every bit the heart and soul of a quality college D for the last 2 seasons. Intangibles count for something.

19. Minnesota Vikings - David Pollack - DE - Georgia - Vikings need a Defensive End, and Pollack is actually a little lower then expected. They gladly take him, assuming they can find the podium on time...

20. Miami Dolphins - Vernon Carrey - Oline - UMiami - Phillip Rivers and Lee Evans were considered here, but the immediate need for the first 10 win non-playoff team in a decade is O-line. In a division that plays in the snow from Thanksgiving on, you've got to be able to "plow" to run the ball. Carrey is a mammoth of a man that can get the job done.

21. New England Patrios - Kevin Jones - RB - V. Tech - The Pats patience pays off as they get their man. With Faulk still on board to catch some of the screen passes, a dreadful run game just got a whole lot better.

22. Seattle Seahwaks - Karlos Dansby - LB - Auburn - Dansby helps the Seahwawks get some depth on defense. The Seahawks are the one of a few teams that has no glaring "need" so much as a need for quality depth at a few spots and quality HEALTH(!!!) at a few others. Dansby is the best option available, especially if they resign Walter Jones for the O-line.

23. Dallas Cowboys - Chris Perry - RB - Michigan - My "agony" pick, I was SURE that Cedric Benson was going to Dallas, but he's staying in school. I still think Cadillac's coming out, so he might end up here, but for now, we'll stick with the best declared RB option. Perry is the "workhorse" type of back Parcells likes and he can catch the rock a little too. This is a good fit, solid but unspectacular. (***If Cadillac declares, Benson changes his mind, or Greg Jones's knee checks out, any one of them could bump Perry into the 2nd round - and to the Lions - here)

24. Denver Broncos - DeAngelo Hall - DB - VTech - Deltha O hasn't exactly worked out, or at least he's not a viable DB anymore. Hall is pretty much the guy they need to quickly fill that gap and even offer some special teams help if Oneil is gone entirely.

25. Green Bay Packers - Phillip Rivers - QB - NCState - Well, Farve says he'll stick around a while. How conveeeeeenient. The Pack could stand to add depth at a variety of positions, but considering there aren't any dire needs and they never are bad enough to get great draft position, a QB like Rivers this late in the first is too good to pass up.

26. Carolina Panthers - Nathan Vasher - CB/ST - UTexas Missing out on a top-notch receiver is pretty disappointing, but that would have been a luxury. The defense has carried them to here, and it will have to continue. Vasher may seem like a stretch, but he's got the cover skills necessary and can contribute on Special Teams as well. Will Poole and Keiwan Ratliff are considerations as well. (**This is the Mock pick I'm the least comfortable with...Bash away!)

27. Tennessee Titans - Nat Dorsey - Oline - Georgia Tech - At some point, Brad "Holding" Hopkins needs to see less field time. Similarly, the team has been rotating O-linemen at a rapid pace trying to find a good mix. I think they take Dorsey here and let Rolle, Tompson, Woofolk, and Williams work out the D-backfield.

28. Indianapolis - DJ Williams LB - UMiami - Williams slide is a bit of a surprise, and Dungy couldn't be happier about adding a fast, physical player to his defense.

29. St. Louis Rams - Will Poole - CB - USC - Poole showed some things to the nation in his last few games. He's got the tools necessary to come in and help slow down other teams passing games, especailly on the fast St. Louis turf.

30. Kansas City Chiefs - Jonathan Vilma - LB - UMiami - They need a run-stopper and a middle of the field defender. Vilma gets the nod. Could go a number of ways this late in the 1st.

31. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Clayton - WR - LSU - Lee Evans is a consideration, but Clayton showed too much this year for the Eagles to pass on him. He can be a marquis WR to put next to Pinkston and he's got the hands to fit into Reid's system.

32. New England Patriots - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin - Evans has done enough to give him a chance to creep into the 1st round. At this point, I don't think the Pats are going to draft defense, so some good players like Marcus Tubbs and Ben Troupe slip to the second round. Evans gives Brady a tall, fast WR to toss the ball to.

I think this is how it will shake out as of now. The only places I'm really unsettled are Carolina's pick and having 6 WRs in the first. It just so happens I think all 6 guys grade out well enough and the last 5 or 6 picks of the first round are usually convenience picks for solid teams, not pressing needs. So, I think its possible that there are really 4 first round WRs, and Philly and New England simply choose to grab WRs too because they are the best options avialable.

Feedback, as always, is welcome!

HERD

 

Workhorse

Footballguy
Good stuff, Herd.I would guess that the new coach in Buffalo will try to build up that shaky O-Line in the first round, though. Defense was not their problem this past season...

 

beto

Footballguy
No way do the Lions take a Safety that high. I think they are going RB but may have to trade down to do it. They could go with a FA at RB so we will see what happens.

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Herd -I love your mock drafts and learn so much from them! Thank you. As a Vikes fan, I get goose bumps thinking about the prospects of a blue chip defensive end falling to us again. But can you cut out the comments about the clock, that wound has not closed yet.I really have no place to critique so I am going to ask you a question.The Houston pick raised an eyebrow for me. They run a 3-4 and in the 3-4 the defensive end's (and nose tackle) primary responsibility is to tie up two blockers to allow the linebackers to make plays. Do you agree with me, does Tommie Harris to the Texans still make sense and why?the BlueOnion

 

Joseph

Footballguy
Good stuff, Herd.I would guess that the new coach in Buffalo will try to build up that shaky O-Line in the first round, though. Defense was not their problem this past season...
I don't see Buffalo going OL in the first. 13 is too high to take a guard, and the Bills are already paying a lot to both of their tackles. Buffalo's choices in the first will be determined by who of Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Kellen Winslow and Will Smith are available.
 

GoingFor2

Footballguy
Isn't the top three order SD, OAK, ARI ?*editted to swap ARI w/SD*

 
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Jason Wood

Zoo York
Jason,I tend to agree, but if Oakland passes on him, exactly who in the top-10 is going to draft a QB?HERD
You've got a point, but I don't see Oak and San Dawg both passing on a QB if he's there.Cheers
 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Got it. Just out of curiousity, what do see happening if SD keeps the 1 spot and takes Manning? Will ARI take Roethlisberger
If SD takes a QB, then Gallery goes to the Giants, and the Falcons are the big winners as they get Right Tackle Shaun Andrews to protect their left-handed QBs backside. From there, a lot of dominoes start falling different ways.I think Dennis Green takes a QB, but he'd rather have Manning.HERD
 

Iceman03

Footballguy
Finally someone understands that with the depth of RB this year that more teams will wait till a later round to get one. Very good Mock has of right now still lots could change though.

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
Hey HERD, another thing...Steven Jackson probably won't fall that far. It's a rare year when the first RB is off the board that late, and this year's class, even without Benson, is stronger than that.One other point to consider, Kiper has Vilma graded quite a bit higher than that...why do you see him falling so far?Cheers

 

dcgangstas

Footballguy
Nice job, Herd. My mock is somewhat similar (especially the Arizona - San Diego trade though I have the Chargers taking Roethlisberger), but I have several differences. At the sixth spot, I can see NO way that the Lions pass on Steven Jackson as a perfect WCO Running Back. Sean Taylor is a excellent talent, but they cannot take him that high. I see him falling to the Jets. Cleveland's offensive line is a mess, and they cannot afford to pass on a stud tackle like Georgia TEch's Nat Dorsey. Winslow's a stud to be certain, but Ben Troupe would be there for them in the 2nd round. Cleveland can't go TE in the first round. And Vernon Carrey has tons of upside, but he is not really first round material; way too raw. I'd think New England's second choice would be to take a linebacker to replace Roman PHifer. the last pick could probably be Florida State's Michael Boulware, though he needs to gain a little weight. Solid job, nonetheless. Nice for us draft junkies to prepare notes. :thumbup:

 

iwascool

Footballguy
I think you have nailed the top 4, including the SD/Arz trade. Despite Oakland's obvious need for a QB (I think they bring in a veteran) the Fitzgerald pick is Oakland's style and he would be a great fit with Porter stretching the field. Fitzgerald will be better with a good speed receiver opposite him.I agree with Detroit going defense in round 1 and probably taking Taylor. They could use a RB but far too many drafts on fantasy boards have Detroit taking a RB because that's what we want, not what the value or the biggest need is. I like Jackson and Jones but neither is good value at Detroit's current slot.Woods at #16 seems to be a bit high.I don't have any disagreement with the Big Ben slide. It is more likely to happen than not.

 
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Iceman03

Footballguy
25. Green Bay Packers - Phillip Rivers - QB - NCState - Well, Farve says he'll stick around a while. How conveeeeeenient. The Pack could stand to add depth at a variety of positions, but considering there aren't any dire needs and they never are bad enough to get great draft position, a QB like Rivers this late in the first is too good to pass up.
Right now I think Losman is better. I think after Eli and Big Ben a lot needs to be settled at the combine for the other QB's.
Cleveland's offensive line is a mess, and they cannot afford to pass on a stud tackle like Georgia TEch's Nat Dorsey. Winslow's a stud to be certain, but Ben Troupe would be there for them in the 2nd round. Cleveland can't go TE in the first round. And Vernon Carrey has tons of upside, but he is not really first round material; way too raw.
Solid point right there. :thumbup:
 
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BlueOnion

Footballguy
I have two comments for you Herd:1) I would like to bump my question to you above, in case you missed it.2) When I look at Willfork, I get this sense that come April he will be in the top 3. Here are my reasons.- He is a very athletic defensive tackle, quick, can rush the passer and has a big frame (6-2, 335#). Coming out of Miami is a big plus as well.- The last few drafts, especially last year, defensive linemen with Willfork's attributes and ability start sky-rocketing up the draft as the draft gets closer. Defensive tackles appear to be low risk, high impact players, ideal for the first round. Here are some tackles in recent drafts who stock continued to rise right up to the draft:20031.04 DeWayne Robertson1.06 Johnathon Sullivan1.09 Kevin Williams1.13 Ty Warren ** Left off 1.12 Jimmy Kennedy20021.06 Ryan Sims1.09 John Henderson1.12 Wendell Bryant1.15 Albert Haynesworth20011.03 Gerard Warren1.06 Richard Seymour1.10 Damione Lewis1.13 Marcus StroudThe BlueOnion

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
I have two comments for you Herd:1) I would like to bump my question to you above, in case you missed it.2) When I look at Willfork, I get this sense that come April he will be in the top 3. Here are my reasons.- He is a very athletic defensive tackle, quick, can rush the passer and has a big frame (6-2, 335#). Coming out of Miami is a big plus as well.- The last few drafts, especially last year, defensive linemen with Willfork's attributes and ability start sky-rocketing up the draft as the draft gets closer. Defensive tackles appear to be low risk, high impact players, ideal for the first round. Here are some tackles in recent drafts who stock continued to rise right up to the draft:20031.04 DeWayne Robertson1.06 Johnathon Sullivan1.09 Kevin Williams1.13 Ty Warren ** Left off 1.12 Jimmy Kennedy20021.06 Ryan Sims1.09 John Henderson1.12 Wendell Bryant1.15 Albert Haynesworth20011.03 Gerard Warren1.06 Richard Seymour1.10 Damione Lewis1.13 Marcus StroudThe BlueOnion
BlueOnion,A GREAT point. Every year it seems that the one position which gets overheated come draft time is the DT/DE position. Which is actually why I like the Udeze pick as high as 5. I'd expect most mocks and grades won't have him going that high, but if he works out well I think teams will be crazed to land him. I wonder though if the struggles of Robertson might scare some people off a bit from playing that game. Neither Roberston nor Sims (the last DT to hyper jump up the draft board) have been less-than-inspiring.Cheers
 
Nice list, I'm sure you seeded the playoff teams to order of their rank to determine their draft slot, but I don't see the Patriots as the SB champion.No Clarett, he obviously should be the #1 RB if deemed eligible. :yes: Clarett will win his case and probably will be a late first or early second round pick in all sincerity. Herd is a good judge of ability but from the posts you made from last year he is really missing the boat on this kid. Very pessimistic as a buckeye-hater.I also I agree with Jason Wood on Ben Rothenburger is top ten.Good stuff, I'm already looking forward to the real draft.

 
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MPhilly03

Footballguy
32. New England Patriots - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin - Evans has done enough to give him a chance to creep into the 1st round. At this point, I don't think the Pats are going to draft defense, so some good players like Marcus Tubbs and Ben Troupe slip to the second round. Evans gives Brady a tall, fast WR to toss the ball to.
An excellent work and a fun read. Two minor points:1. I can't see the Patriots going away from defense with their second pick. I think they will go RB with the first one but then MLB seems like a more logical choice. Especially since is a deep draft at WR and they have 5 of the first 75 or 80 picks.

2. Not sure I would call Lee Evans tall at 5'11" though he does seem to have the ability go up and make tough catches over defenders.

 

theedge

Footballguy
Very well done Herd! You have the Colts taking Williams. Where do you see him playing for them? Do you think they will move him inside? I've seen them taking Vilma (I assume the mock drafters think he could bulk up and play the middle). I think the Colts would look first at a corner. You have Vasher going a few positions earlier though. What do you think of Poole? Too bad for us (Colt fans) that Jackson has decided to stay put.

 

GreedoShotFirst

Footballguy
Herd,As always well thought out and insightful. Other than the previously mentioned fact that Udeze gets "Ron Jeremy like penetration" do you think he is a truely special player in the mold of previous #5 picks like Thomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Deion, Junior Seau ect? D line is an obvious need for the Skins, but with that high a pick I am hoping that they can find a real difference maker. There has been talk of them trading down (I know, every fan wants their team to trade down, most of them can't make it work) and trying to get two lower picks so they can grab an end and a tackle. Perhaps the soon-to-be world Champion Patriots would be interested in the 5th pick in the draft?

 
Good stuff, Herd.I would guess that the new coach in Buffalo will try to build up that shaky O-Line in the first round, though. Defense was not their problem this past season...
I don't see Buffalo going OL in the first. 13 is too high to take a guard, and the Bills are already paying a lot to both of their tackles. Buffalo's choices in the first will be determined by who of Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Kellen Winslow and Will Smith are available.
:yes:
 
Finally someone understands that with the depth of RB this year that more teams will wait till a later round to get one. Very good Mock has of right now still lots could change though.
It didnt work for the Lions last year, they will take Jackson in the first.
 

Spike

Footballguy
Perhaps the soon-to-be world Champion Patriots would be interested in the 5th pick in the draft?
Sorry, but I just cannot see Belichick trading up like that.
 

Shooter McGavin

Down the middle
Great job, Herd. A lot of interesting stuff there. I'm glad to see someone besides me thinks that the Lions will go with defense, and Taylor specifically. I really think that Jackson is a reach at #6, and I'd hope that the Lions would realize that their problems are far more extensive than just RB. There should be good RB talent in round 2, if they want to go that route -- but they should also look into getting some help at OG, because that was a big part of the running game's problems this season.. All indications are that Taylor is a special player (Roy Williams with Ed Reed's hands), and it would be nice for the Lions to be able to stop some people on D.

 
I have also heard rumblings out of Detroit that they like Kellen Winslow and DEtroit is drafting higher. They've never had a quality tight end and don't be surprised if you see him in DEtroit.

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
The Houston pick raised an eyebrow for me. They run a 3-4 and in the 3-4 the defensive end's (and nose tackle) primary responsibility is to tie up two blockers to allow the linebackers to make plays. Do you agree with me, does Tommie Harris to the Texans still make sense and why?
Your point about the 3-4 is a good one. I think that the Harris pick represents taking a guy that has the physical tools and ability to play either on the outside of the line OR drop back into the LB corp. In other words, a jack of all trades for the front 7. If you've noticed in the last year or two, the 3-4 schemes are rapidly developing - I can't remember who (Tennessee?) actually tossed out some packages this year with a 3-4 and NO down linemen. As such, while the base package of a 3-4 is as you described, I think there is enough room for variation that Harris can fit in and play a valuable role for the Texans.As for Clarrett, I would bet my first-born child that he's not going in the first round this season. Period. It has nothing to do with me being a Buckeye hater. Clarrett has demonstrated great running ability, poor durability, poor attitude, and questionable decision making. This is the 1st round of the NFL draft and while many of these guys are hardly saints, there is something to be said for such concerns on draft day. Randy Moss was one of the 4 best players in college football the year he was drafted and he showed no injury concerns, and he fell to 21st in a draft with virtually no WR options (Kevin Dyson?). Clarrett hasn't taken a handoff in 13 months, and there are possibly 5 RBs that would grade out within eyesight of Clarrett, some of them better then he.HERD
 

Steelers4Life

Footballguy
I could be wrong, but I just don't see the Steelers taking a QB - even one as talented as Manning or Roethlisberger - over a franchise RB or top CB. Maddox most definitely can get the job done if they improve their right tackle, get the other linemen healthy, and find a feature running back this offseason.Why? Because (1) the Steelers still consider themselves close to being contenders, and (2) they aren't going to want to go through a 2nd consecutive losing season. This team isn't going to go into a rebuilding mode. The guy they select in the 1st round is going to be someone they want to come in and contribute as a rookie, and I think they'll address the QB position either in the future or through a trade (possibly Drew Henson by sacrificing a 2nd or 3rd rounder)If Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, or Chris Gamble are there, I see them taking one of them - depending on which hole(s) they fill (or plan to fill) through free agency. Both of the top 2 tackles will be long gone by pick #13, and trading up and sacrificing picks for a team with this many holes will be out of the question.

 
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EastBayFunk

Footballguy
A few things: 1. Roethlisberger will not fall out of the top three.2. I don't see Chris Perry going in the first round. He's just not good enough. I suppose someone could take him there, but it seems like wise teams will wait until the second round. 3. If Reggie Williams isn't available, the Niners will probably go with Clayton or trade the pick. Woods seems to have slipped into the second round and he's not a guy whose workouts will help his stock.4. I now hear that David Pollack is likely to return to school.It's also my own opinion that Kevin Jones is better than Steven Jackson. Whether or not the majority of NFL GM's agree remains to be seen.

 
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As for Clarrett, I would bet my first-born child that he's not going in the first round this season. Period. It has nothing to do with me being a Buckeye hater. Clarrett has demonstrated great running ability, poor durability, poor attitude, and questionable decision making. This is the 1st round of the NFL draft and while many of these guys are hardly saints, there is something to be said for such concerns on draft day. Randy Moss was one of the 4 best players in college football the year he was drafted and he showed no injury concerns, and he fell to 21st in a draft with virtually no WR options (Kevin Dyson?). Clarrett hasn't taken a handoff in 13 months, and there are possibly 5 RBs that would grade out within eyesight of Clarrett, some of them better then he.HERD I would agree that he has everything going against him, including the eligibility issue and the fact he sat the entire season. I think the only way he gets into the first round is an outstanding combine (if invited) or a personal workout that has just shocking results. Clarrett has the tools to not just make it in the NFL but to exceed at that level. He got alot of bad advice, the worst of which was to challenge his draft eligibility. Had he stayed in school for his Junior year and answered the injury questions, dealt with his attitude and just continued to play at a high level, he would easily be top ten. By coming out under these conditions he is giving up millions in future earnings (he could still make millions, just not as many). He might be good but not necessarily smart.I also think a team might risk a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him and he is gold in those rounds.

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
1. Roethlisberger will not fall out of the top three.2. I don't see Chris Perry going in the first round. He's just not good enough. I suppose someone could take him there, but it seems like wise teams will wait until the second round. 3. If Reggie Williams isn't available, the Niners will probably go with Clayton or trade the pick. Woods seems to have slipped into the second round and he's not a guy whose workouts will help his stock.4. I now hear that David Pollack is likely to return to school
Excellent points all, EBF. 1. I agree with you and Jason, but short of projecting a complicated trade, who in the top-10 will take a QB if the current top-3 teams pass on him?2. I think the Cowboys are taking a RB, and truthfully, I expect either Greg Jones or Caddilac Williams to be there, not Perry. However, the Perry pick was a result of his checking out as healthy (Jones?) being in the draft (Williams?) and me being shellshocked by Benson returning to school.3. I think you're underestimating Woods. Even if you're not, late 1st round trades are tough to guage.4. Interesting, I'll have to follow that.HERD
 

harrycarey

Footballguy
I like your oakland pick a lot. I too think Udeze will go high, but I think Gamble and Poole will go higher then you have them. I don't think denver will go with hall as he's to similiar to oneal. Maybe they go with Vasher or Troupe to take over for Sharpe in a year or two.

 

Marvelous

Footballguy
Herd, one question: peeking into the 2nd round and the Reskins pick, will there be better value at DT/DE or at RB? I have been a proponent of the Redskins drafting another RB, but by the 2nd round, if there is outstanding value, you got to go for it at any position.

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
I think a # of players available will piquie the Skins in terest in round 2. Of the group that could be there at that point...

(Assuming Chris Perry is in the 1st round)

TE - Ben Troupe

RB - Greg Jones, Michael Turner, Cedric Cobbs

DT/DE - Marcus Tubbs

Those are the ones off the top of my head.

HERD

 
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BlueOnion

Footballguy
When Gibbs was coaching the Skins before, I lived in the area and hated the Skins.

That being said, the one thing that always stood out in my mind that Gibbs always seemed to have a revolving door at quarterback and running back, but his offensive line was always one of the best and one of the most consistent.

Any comments on the status of the Redskins offensive line (age, talent, contract) and to what extend Gibbs and\or Bugel do to address the offensive line in the draft?

I would not be shocked to see the Skins spent a 1st or 2nd rounder on an offensive lineman Gibbs and Bugel would be enamoured with.

The BlueOnion

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Herd -Yes, your comment on my Texans question made sense. I will have to wait and see the reports\footage before I comment further.thanks.The BlueOnion

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
My thoughts:1) The Arizona/SD trade in intriguing, but there is going to be alot of pressure on SD to take Manning. Remember, they got 2nd prize in the Manning derby when Peyton came out...which was Ryan Leaf :wall: . To pass on the other Manning...it could be epic the type of fallout that could occur if he turns into a big time QB.2) I like your thinking on Washington, but I still feel that they will go with Tommie Harris. There is a debate as to whether he is truly a DT or a DE, but since the Skins can use help at both positions, Harris gives them development options and from a tools perspective, Harris is a top notch talent.3) I see alot of mocks slotting Taylor to the Lions, and it's possible. But at some point, they have to solve their RB issues...until I see what Jackson/Jones do at the combine and in team workouts, I have to withhold judgement. But the whole complexion of the draft IMO shifts with this pick. If they do go RB, then the draft could stay relatively quiet. If they go for another position, things are going to get really wild trade-wise.Other than that, I like your logic on alot of the picks...Carey to Miami is a very astute pick.It looks like Pollack is staying in school.My sleeper RB is Greg Jones. Before his knee injury, alot of people thought he had Top 5 pick ability. Coming off his ACL injury, he had an unspectacular year, but we all know about ACL injuries (2 years). I could see him skyrocketing based on combine/workouts/all-star game result because the fact of the matter is this. When he is on...he's a beast. I could see Parcells grabbing him. BTW...did you know his cousin is Joe Frazier??!!

 
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Payne

Footballguy
I think Detroit takes Winslow or Jackson in round one.

If they take Winslow, they will be hoping Perry falls to round 2 which could happen.

 

GreedoShotFirst

Footballguy
When Gibbs was coaching the Skins before, I lived in the area and hated the Skins.

That being said, the one thing that always stood out in my mind that Gibbs always seemed to have a revolving door at quarterback and running back, but his offensive line was always one of the best and one of the most consistent.

Any comments on the status of the Redskins offensive line (age, talent, contract) and to what extend Gibbs and\or Bugel do to address the offensive line in the draft?

I would not be shocked to see the Skins spent a 1st or 2nd rounder on an offensive lineman Gibbs and Bugel would be enamoured with.

The BlueOnion
I would be shocked if they spend a high pick on a O lineman. Not only do they have much greater need in other areas, they actually have a good talent on the O-line. Chris Samuels had (by his standards) a poot season, but he is a stud at left tackle, one level down from the Ogdens and Paces of the league. At Right tackle Jon Jansen is a road grader and with Gibbs/Bugel he will be going to the Pro bowl sooner rather than later. Randy Thomas was a GREAT pickup from the Jets. He is a top of the line guard. Dave Fiore at the other guard spot is one of the strongest players in the league (he wins those power lifting contests) and a solid blocker who will only get better in thier protection scheme. Larry Moore is a servicable center, and there is good depth too. Second year man Derrick Dockery may beat out Fiore for the starting spot. He's 6-6 and abour 350 with a mean streak. Lennie Friedman (former Denver starter) is the backup at both center and guard. Hearing these guys talk about how unbelievably bad the Spurrier blocking scheme was, I was really shocked. Tre Johnson was on the radio and said that many times when linemen were blamed for missing a pickup, it really wasn't their fault. They were told to block thier man and let the play develope, regardless of what the defense did. Not having line audibles in the NFL is just ridiculous, no wonder Ramsey nearly got killed :wall: As for age and contracts:

Thomas- 27 and under contract for 4 more years

Fiore- 29 and 3 more years

Dockery-23 and 3 more years

Friedman- 27 and three years

Moore- 28 - don't know on the contract, but it's not up this season

Janson- 27 (never missed a game) redid his deal last year

Samuels- 26 redid his deal recently

 

Marvelous

Footballguy
Herd, one question: peeking into the 2nd round and the Reskins pick, will there be better value at DT/DE or at RB? I have been a proponent of the Redskins drafting another RB, but by the 2nd round, if there is outstanding value, you got to go for it at any position.
The Redskins have a lot of money tied up in the offensive line. This is all off my memory, so it won't be really detailed (I did check a current roster).Chris Samuals - He has a big contract (one that gets you into salary cap jail). Jon Jensen - I think he signed a decent contract last off season, before the free agent market opened up.Randy Thomas - Signed a big free agent contract last year with a pretty good signing bonus.These three need to be starters due to their contracts and commitment to them already. And despite a down year, there is no reason to think their skills have diminished.Dave Fiore - signed a decent free agent contract last off season. But he was injuried most of this year and has a big injury history.Larry Moore - signed as a moderate price free agent 2 or 3 years ago. Although not a stud, he his play at center has been considered pretty solid.Lenny Friedman - signed a minor free agent contact last year. Decent fill in at center when Moore was injured.Derrick Dockery - rookie last year. He was highly regarded. Sometime looked decent and sometimes look ugly at guard last year.Brandon Winey - never heard of him before he filled in for Samuels during the season. Seems like he actually played ok for a bargain basement player.I actually see everyone in this group staying. Friedman is an unrestricted free agent though. It is possible Fiore is deemed to injury prone to keep.I don't see the Redskins spending a high draft pick on OL. In fact, during the Gibbs era part I, they usually did not use high draft picks on OL.
 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
I don't want to get laughed out of the room, but those of you who think the Lions HAVE to address the RB situation early are forgetting someone...

James Stewart.

All kidding aside, despite being "old" in terms of age, he has less wear and tear then still-prodcutive RBs like Priest Holmes (1713 touches heading into playoffs), Marshall Faulk (3249 and counting), Charlie Garner (1917), and even Ricky Williams (1818).

Stewart has 1698 career touches due to splitting time and some injuries in the past. While he isn't as talented as some of those guys and is obviously no spring chicken, we're talking about a guy who probably still has some spring in his step, has some experience, and has been a woefully underrated RB throughout his time in Detroit because they haven't scored much since he's been there. He's got a decent YPC in his career (4.4) and hangs on to the ball VERY well (13 career fumbles). I wouldn't be shocked if Mooch would like to have him in there since the other offensive playmakers (Harrington and Rogers) are still young.

I'm just saying don't let the allure of Jackson make you think the Lions are up a creek without drafting a stud RB. They may have an adequate solution on board, coming off of a full year of rest.

HERD

 

tommyGunZ

Footballguy
What's the market for compensation for my Chargers dropping two slots, allowing Az to get Manning?Anyone have historical data for a move like this?A 3rd rounder?

 

Marvelous

Footballguy
Tre Johnson was on the radio and said that many times when linemen were blamed for missing a pickup, it really wasn't their fault. They were told to block thier man and let the play develope, regardless of what the defense did. Not having line audibles in the NFL is just ridiculous, no wonder Ramsey nearly got killed :wall:
I actually had not heard this, but I heard comments from Jon Jansen. Even though he did not say anything bad about the coaches, it was clear he thought there was something very wrong with the coaching/schemes.Joe Bugel has been quotes as saying that Ramsey will be a well protected qb next year.
 

Lefty27

Footballguy
Great job HERD and all!I agree with your thoughts on the Bears filling a need on the D-Line--I think Angelo was not anticipating the run on DT's in the '03 draft. That said, I also think that they may go RB (Stephen Jackson). Obviously it will depend on who the new HC and coaching staff is and also their evaluation of players like A-Train will play into where they will assess their immediate needs.

 

Marvelous

Footballguy
What's the market for compensation for my Chargers dropping two slots, allowing Az to get Manning?Anyone have historical data for a move like this?A 3rd rounder?
I am guessing a 3rd rounder, but who knows. It is basically market driven based on how many people want the pick.San Diego gave up a truckload to move up one spot to draft Ryan Leaf.San Diego recieved a 2nd and Tim Dwight to move from 1 to 5 and let the Falcons take Vick.Those are the trades that come to mind immediately. I am sure there are others.
 

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