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HERD's NFL Mock Draft - After week 8 - (1 Viewer)

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Its been a couple of weeks, so a lot has changed. I still think Brohm is QB3, but now the QB1 spot is Matt Ryan's to lose. He looks like Carson Palmer back there, and pretty soon he's going to be the first player picked in the draft. I love Woodson (best mechanics in a LONG time) but I think Ryan is the guy unless his arm falls off.

I also think Dorsey is sliding. Maybe not far, but behind Okam, who is MUCH more athletic then even I gave him credit for. Mike Hart's injuries will keep him out of round 1. Darren McFadden's uneven performances in the last few weeks may have him sliding a bit too.

This is a really weird year. In the last few years there have been some positions of strength that were identifiable early on. This year, positions look fairly even with the exception of WR, wherein there isn't much to get excited about in round 1. Lots of DEs though. And a new RB appearing in round 1...

1. Miami - Matt Ryan - BC - Yes, I'm aware of John Beck being on the roster. But Miami is at a unique time where they will need a face to carry them through the next decade. Although it's only a recent trend, #1 overall money goes to a QB unless there is a much more compelling player on the board. THis year, there isn't.



2. St. Louis - Jake Long - OT - UM - The Ram line has been decimated by injuries, but it's also not that good when healthy right now. The cupboard is far from bare in the Lou, they just need to keep Bulger (and Jackson) from getting met in the backfield every snap. The new coach should love having Long around.



3. NY Jets - Frank Okam - DT - UTexas - Seriously. Just watch. Okam is MUCH more disruptive up front then Dorsey and his wide wing-span make him not only good in rushing the QB, but also in getting up and putting a hand in the passing lanes. Love Okam.

4. Atlanta - Andre Woodson - QB - UK - Purtiest mechanincs since...Peyton?



5. New England - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU - In the Haynesworth mold, which is not a bad thing. He's more of a plug in the line then a rush tackle, but that's okay. The Pats can put him and Wilfork together and get the same results as if they had poured a 6 foot high cement wall at the line of scrimmage.

6. Cincinatti - Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss - How did the Bengals get so awful so quickly?

7. Oakland - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - Yes, they have 3 RBs on the roster in Lamont, Rhodes and Bush. To which I retort, "So what?" Do you think Arizona is wishing they'd grabbed Peterson last season? Me too.



8. Minnesota - Brian Brohm - QB - UL - Childress may save his job, but someone else is going to have to be under center next year.

9. Houston - Kenny Phillips - S - UM - For the record, Kubiak has one foot out the door to college station. As for the pick, they are NEVER going to compete in the AFC South until they can shut down the arms of Manning, Garrard, Young, Gray, and Collins.

10. Chicago - Ryan Clady - OT - BSU - The Chicago O-line is terrible. Clady may be a bit of a reach, but I'm betting he pulls a Levi Brown and gets grabbed in the top-10.

11. Arizona - Derrick Harvey - DE - UF - BPA, you know the drill...

12. New Orleans - Malcolm Jenkins - CB - OSU - Saints get the top-corner. Not a shutdown guy, necessarily, but definitely should be a gamer early on.

13. Buffalo - Sedric Ellis - DT - USC - Just watch how many guys from a 6-5 team are going to end up in round 1...



14. Denver - Chris Long - DE - UVA - At some juncture, SOMEONE in Denver is going to get to the passer.



15. Philadelphia - Justin King - CB - PSU - I realize some don't think Philly needs corner help, but I do.

16. Tampa Bay - Deshaun Jackson - WR - Cal - "Joey, meet Deshaun. We need you to show him everything you know."

17. Seattle - Sam Baker - OT - USC - If Alexander is going to continue running forward two yards and then turning around back-to-back to his linemen, then maybe the linemen should be a little better and pushing their way through the LOS.

18. Dallas - Keith Rivers - LB - USC - Maybe it was a little early for some of you to talk about McFadden to the Cowboys? :thumbup:

19. Baltimore - Quintin Groves - DE - Auburn - Defense is getting older and even though OT would be a good find, Groves is too versatile to pass up.

20. Carolina - Andre Fluellen - DT - FSU - D-line has always been the bread-butter of the good Panther teams. Time to reload.

21. Kansas City - Gosder Cherilus - OT - BC - The line could be worse, but with the coming Colt Brennan, Eric Ainge or Chad Henne selection in Round 2, they're going to need someone to protect their QB.

22. Washington - Calais Campbell - DE - UM - See Denver.

23. San Diego - Steve Slaton - RB - WVU - Turner's gone. Slaton would be a nice backup for LT.



24. Pittsburgh - Dan Conner - LB - PSU - No-brainer for Tomlin and Co.

25. Tennessee - Lawrence Jackson - DE - USC - The Tennessee D has been MUCH better this year, but they still need someone nasty opposite KVB.

26. Detroit - Vernon Gholston - DE - OSU - Detroit will probably go to the stage 3 hours earlier to turn in their card only to be told they don't pick in the top-10 this year.

27. Jacksonville - Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU - Jacksonville's D is too inconsistent for my tastes. Speed to get to the passer in the AFC South = Good idea.

28. Dallas - Early Doucet - WR - LSU - Crayton has filled in well for Glenn, but at some point they'll have to get some more young blood at WR. Doucet has been hampered by injuries, but make no mistake, he can be the next good LSU receiving product in the NFL.



29. Green Bay - Rashard Mendenhall - RB - UI - If you don't know Mendenhall, try

TONS of forward lean. Great bowling ball size (5'10, 220) and acceleration.

30. San Fransisco - Alex Boone - OT - OSU - More line help...more line help....more line help.....(well, it's either that or Alex Smith just isn't any good).



31. New York Giants - James Laurinaitis - LB - Apparently not USC...OSU -

 
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i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?

 
i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?
I could see the Falcons trading up for the #1, even though there is no threat of St. Louis taking a QB. I could see Minny trading up, although it would cost a lot to get up that high. Chicago as well.
 
i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?
I could see the Falcons trading up for the #1, even though there is no threat of St. Louis taking a QB. I could see Minny trading up, although it would cost a lot to get up that high. Chicago as well.
thanks. food for thought as I struggle through the year being a MIA fan....
 
nice work as always herd.

Love the idea of Denver just continuing to throw picks at the pass rush - although they need a safety something fierce - so bad that free agency/trade might be the better answer..

It will just be unfair if NE can land someone like Dorsey - they'll be able to keep playing Seau and Bruschi into their 50s with those guys up front.

 
nice work as always herd.Love the idea of Denver just continuing to throw picks at the pass rush - although they need a safety something fierce - so bad that free agency/trade might be the better answer..It will just be unfair if NE can land someone like Dorsey - they'll be able to keep playing Seau and Bruschi into their 50s with those guys up front.
Denver made a mistake passing on all the safeties available last draft, all 4 of whom are better then Phillips.The NE/SF thing shows exactly why a team like the Patriots stays so good and a team like SF stinks over and over.
 
nice work as always herd.Love the idea of Denver just continuing to throw picks at the pass rush - although they need a safety something fierce - so bad that free agency/trade might be the better answer..It will just be unfair if NE can land someone like Dorsey - they'll be able to keep playing Seau and Bruschi into their 50s with those guys up front.
Denver made a mistake passing on all the safeties available last draft, all 4 of whom are better then Phillips.The NE/SF thing shows exactly why a team like the Patriots stays so good and a team like SF stinks over and over.
Personally, I see Denver going LB, based on present needs and past drafting history.
 
31. New York Giants - James Laurinaitis - LB - USC - And JL makes it 5 for the Emerald Bowl Champs!

I think he plays for another school. THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY!!!!

Get it right

 
i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?
I could see the Falcons trading up for the #1, even though there is no threat of St. Louis taking a QB. I could see Minny trading up, although it would cost a lot to get up that high. Chicago as well.
Nice write up. As a Bears fan I'm really pulling for them to land Kenny Phillips as Mike Brown should be cut this offseason, And Archuleta is garbage.However I will chime in that there is no way the Bears move up in the draft. Jerry Angelo doesnt like early picks. Too much money for a non-proven player. He didnt even want the #4 pick in 2005, and now after getting burned with Cedric, I cant see the Bears ever trading up with Angelo at the helm. The Bears are also looking at the money it will take to keep Tommy Harris, which will be a ton. Maybe sign Briggs if he drops his price. Bears are also in a win soon situation and I dont think they want to start over at the QB position. I think a guy like Chad Pennington will be on the radar before they look rookie.
 
Hard to see Pittsburgh passing on Connor, but LB is hardly a position of need what with spending the top two picks at that position this year.

Boone or other OL help is desperately needed.

 
When doing a mock mid season how do you determine the pick order?

And if the Giants can finally pick a LB in the first round I'll be a happy happy man.

 
15. Philadelphia - Justin King - CB - PSU - I realize some don't think Philly needs corner help, but I do.
I think they have a much bigger need at safety (which they might wait on) and DE (especially if/when Kearse leaves).
 
When doing a mock mid season how do you determine the pick order?And if the Giants can finally pick a LB in the first round I'll be a happy happy man.
The order is exactly as it would be with two exceptions: I have the Giants in the Super Bowl (not the Cowboys, who have the best record against the best schedule in the NFC) and I have Miami with the #1 pick even though St.Louis technically would have it right now. I think that the Rams will win 2 games and Miami will win 0 or 1.
 
When doing a mock mid season how do you determine the pick order?And if the Giants can finally pick a LB in the first round I'll be a happy happy man.
The order is exactly as it would be with two exceptions: I have the Giants in the Super Bowl (not the Cowboys, who have the best record against the best schedule in the NFC) and I have Miami with the #1 pick even though St.Louis technically would have it right now. I think that the Rams will win 2 games and Miami will win 0 or 1.
Minor hijack:How funny would it be for the current Miami Dolphins to go 0-16 the same year the 72 Dolphins 16-0 record gets tied?Oh...and screw the Giants.Love the Mendenhall pick for GB though. That assuming TT does not sign Turner in the offseason. In that case, terrible pick. :yucky:
 
27. Jacksonville - Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU - Jacksonville's D is too inconsistent for my tastes. Speed to get to the passer in the AFC South = Good idea.
I like this pick, especially if JDR is brought back. If an outsider is brought in, they probably won't be as high on Mike Walker and they'll totally revamp the WR position.
 
Herd, do you really think Slaton will last that long? I could see his stock shoot up if he turns in some solid combine numbers.

 
Couple of questions...

1. Why a LB for Dallas? They already have James, Ellis, Spencer, Ware, Adoyele, Carpenter and Burnett.

2. Why so low on Laurinitis? I was under the impressions this guy was a top 15 lock.

3. No Jonathon Stewart in the first? Maybe I like the guy more than most...

Thanks.

 
Herd, do you really think Slaton will last that long? I could see his stock shoot up if he turns in some solid combine numbers.
Seattle would be the highest spot I could see him unless he runs a 4.3 and benches 600 pounds. Who else needs a good-but-not-great RB prospect that high in round 1 when Ray Rice, Mike Hart, and Ian Johnson can be had a round later?
 
Hard to see Pittsburgh passing on Connor, but LB is hardly a position of need what with spending the top two picks at that position this year.Boone or other OL help is desperately needed.
:banned: Connor looks like a nice player at the next level. But if the Steelers see any OL on the board with a 1st round grade I'd have to imagine that is the direction they go.
 
i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?
I could see the Falcons trading up for the #1, even though there is no threat of St. Louis taking a QB. I could see Minny trading up, although it would cost a lot to get up that high. Chicago as well.
Based on this, what would they trade up for? If this is anywhere near correct, and Brohm falls to Atlanta, do you seriously think Petrino will pass on him? If they do trade up, I think they maybe trade DHall and a pick and take an OT, a position they desperately need, and Brohm in the first.
 
Couple of questions...1. Why a LB for Dallas? They already have James, Ellis, Spencer, Ware, Adoyele, Carpenter and Burnett.2. Why so low on Laurinitis? I was under the impressions this guy was a top 15 lock.3. No Jonathon Stewart in the first? Maybe I like the guy more than most...Thanks.
1. I don't think Ellis lasts. 2. I don't see anywhere higher where he would be the preferred pick to who I have them taking. Admittedly, I haven't seen OSU as much this year as other teams.3. Top 45 guy, not top 31. AS an aside, one of the things not getting much pub is that there is one less pick in round 1, meaning 1 fewer guys will get a 1st round deal. If the PA cared about incoming rookies, they'd probably be up in arms about it.
 
Thanks - enjoyable read

Unless John Beck completely falls on his face (which I don't predict happening) there is no way the Dolphins are taking a QB with the 1st or 2nd pick.

In a perfect world they'll trade down and acquire more draft picks - but that is easier said than done.

They either take Long or BPA on defense where they need a ton of help.

 
nice work as always herd.Love the idea of Denver just continuing to throw picks at the pass rush - although they need a safety something fierce - so bad that free agency/trade might be the better answer..It will just be unfair if NE can land someone like Dorsey - they'll be able to keep playing Seau and Bruschi into their 50s with those guys up front.
Denver made a mistake passing on all the safeties available last draft, all 4 of whom are better then Phillips.The NE/SF thing shows exactly why a team like the Patriots stays so good and a team like SF stinks over and over.
Man, did you slot Dorsey in with New England just to rile people up?? Just kidding. That would be seriously unfair. But Ive got a better idea. Ive thought it for a while and Ill stick with it, but Ive got New England trading down to whatever position its going to take to get Laurinaitis. Theyve gotten really old at ILB with Bruschi and Seau. They may not trade down if Dorsey's there, but I dont honestly see Dorsey there at 5. Theyre also probably going to lose Asante Samuel this offseason, so if there's a Champ Bailey looking corner out there, slot him to NE.
 
i'll prempt this comment by stating i don't know jack about college really, but if Beck pans out what do you think Miami will do with the #1? trade down? who would you see being interested in that pick?
I could see the Falcons trading up for the #1, even though there is no threat of St. Louis taking a QB. I could see Minny trading up, although it would cost a lot to get up that high. Chicago as well.
Based on this, what would they trade up for? If this is anywhere near correct, and Brohm falls to Atlanta, do you seriously think Petrino will pass on him? If they do trade up, I think they maybe trade DHall and a pick and take an OT, a position they desperately need, and Brohm in the first.
Trading up usually requires picks or a really good player, which Hall is not. A 3 space move up would likely cost near what Eli Manning cost the GIant which was IIRC 2 firsts, a 3rd, and a 5th. 1. I don't think Petrino will be the coach next season 2. Yes, he would pass on the 3rd best QB if the 2nd best QB were still available.
 
27. Jacksonville - Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU - Jacksonville's D is too inconsistent for my tastes. Speed to get to the passer in the AFC South = Good idea.
I like this pick, especially if JDR is brought back. If an outsider is brought in, they probably won't be as high on Mike Walker and they'll totally revamp the WR position.
Needs to happen no matter who the coach is.Edited to add that I like this pick.

 
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Man, did you slot Dorsey in with New England just to rile people up?? Just kidding. That would be seriously unfair. But Ive got a better idea. Ive thought it for a while and Ill stick with it, but Ive got New England trading down to whatever position its going to take to get Laurinaitis.
Considering their past history of getting a front office to trade up so they'll have two picks "next year", this is a very probable scenario.
if there's a Champ Bailey looking corner out there, slot him to NE.
My opinion is that there isn't even an ANthony Dorsett looking corner in this group.
 
Man, did you slot Dorsey in with New England just to rile people up?? Just kidding. That would be seriously unfair. But Ive got a better idea. Ive thought it for a while and Ill stick with it, but Ive got New England trading down to whatever position its going to take to get Laurinaitis.
Considering their past history of getting a front office to trade up so they'll have two picks "next year", this is a very probable scenario.
if there's a Champ Bailey looking corner out there, slot him to NE.
My opinion is that there isn't even an ANthony Dorsett looking corner in this group.
that's classic. oh, well. one can dream. we'll have to settle for Dorsey then. or my guy James.edit to add - great work, btw.

 
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When doing a mock mid season how do you determine the pick order?And if the Giants can finally pick a LB in the first round I'll be a happy happy man.
The order is exactly as it would be
I know I'm missing something, but why would the Titans pick ahead of the Jags. Is head-to-head superceded by another factor here?
opponents win % is the first tie-breaker. Currently the Jags is .548 and the Titans is .500
 
Justin King isn't a first rounder, maybe if he stays in school and works on his movement. He seems stiff at the hips and has been exposed this year.

 
31. New York Giants - James Laurinaitis - LB - Apparently not USC...OSU -
Can someone give me a rundown on this guy? I havn't watched any OSU games this season and his stat line looks good for a Jr.
 
When doing a mock mid season how do you determine the pick order?And if the Giants can finally pick a LB in the first round I'll be a happy happy man.
The order is exactly as it would be
I know I'm missing something, but why would the Titans pick ahead of the Jags. Is head-to-head superceded by another factor here?
opponents win % is the first tie-breaker. Currently the Jags is .548 and the Titans is .500
Oh.
 
Dodge said:
31. New York Giants - James Laurinaitis - LB - Apparently not USC...OSU -
Can someone give me a rundown on this guy? I havn't watched any OSU games this season and his stat line looks good for a Jr.
He's the son of Animal, of Legion of Doom notoriety. That should say enough right there.
 
Stewart will be a first round pick. Like I've said in other threads, he's probably the RB2 in this draft right now. He's leading the Pac-10 in rushing with 130 yards per game at 6.7 YPC. Those are monster numbers. He has the ideal RB build and will be a good performer at the combine. If he enters the draft and has a clean bill of health, he's a first round pick. No doubt about it.

 
Colin Dowling said:
Trading up usually requires picks or a really good player, which Hall is not. A 3 space move up would likely cost near what Eli Manning cost the GIant which was IIRC 2 firsts, a 3rd, and a 5th.

1. I don't think Petrino will be the coach next season

2. Yes, he would pass on the 3rd best QB if the 2nd best QB were still available.
As bad as the Falcons are I really can't imagine that Petrino will get the ax after only one season.
 
Stewart will be a first round pick. Like I've said in other threads, he's probably the RB2 in this draft right now. He's leading the Pac-10 in rushing with 130 yards per game at 6.7 YPC. Those are monster numbers. He has the ideal RB build and will be a good performer at the combine. If he enters the draft and has a clean bill of health, he's a first round pick. No doubt about it.
It will be close, but I don't see it right now. He could be RB2, but I don't think it's clear just yet (obviously).
 
Colin Dowling said:
Trading up usually requires picks or a really good player, which Hall is not. A 3 space move up would likely cost near what Eli Manning cost the GIant which was IIRC 2 firsts, a 3rd, and a 5th.

1. I don't think Petrino will be the coach next season

2. Yes, he would pass on the 3rd best QB if the 2nd best QB were still available.
As bad as the Falcons are I really can't imagine that Petrino will get the ax after only one season.
I think he'll resign and go back to college.
 
Colin Dowling said:
1. Miami - Matt Ryan - BC - Yes, I'm aware of John Beck being on the roster. But Miami is at a unique time where they will need a face to carry them through the next decade. Although it's only a recent trend, #1 overall money goes to a QB unless there is a much more compelling player on the board. THis year, there isn't.
The same team that spent a 2nd rounder on a QB that they felt was better than the guy (Quinn) that went in the first round is going to go QB in this draft? I just don't see that happening.
Colin Dowling said:
3. NY Jets - Frank Okam - DT - UTexas - Seriously. Just watch. Okam is MUCH more disruptive up front then Dorsey and his wide wing-span make him not only good in rushing the QB, but also in getting up and putting a hand in the passing lanes. Love Okam.
Will Okam be a NT or DE in the 3-4? If you're saying DE, I think Chris Long would be the better pick.
Colin Dowling said:
6. Cincinatti - Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss - How did the Bengals get so awful so quickly?
Anything other than defense seems crazy.
Colin Dowling said:
14. Denver - Chris Long - DE - UVA - At some juncture, SOMEONE in Denver is going to get to the passer.
Seems awfully low for a kid playing like the best DE in the nation.
Colin Dowling said:
15. Philadelphia - Justin King - CB - PSU - I realize some don't think Philly needs corner help, but I do.
As has been said - not a first rounder.
Colin Dowling said:
18. Dallas - Keith Rivers - LB - USC - Maybe it was a little early for some of you to talk about McFadden to the Cowboys? :lmao:
Can't see them going linebacker.
Colin Dowling said:
22. Washington - Calais Campbell - DE - UM - See Denver.
Has been really disappointing this year and may end up out of the 1st.
Colin Dowling said:
23. San Diego - Steve Slaton - RB - WVU - Turner's gone. Slaton would be a nice backup for LT.
Not a first rounder.
Colin Dowling said:
26. Detroit - Vernon Gholston - DE - OSU - Detroit will probably go to the stage 3 hours earlier to turn in their card only to be told they don't pick in the top-10 this year.
D-line is the least of their defensive worries.
Colin Dowling said:
31. New York Giants - James Laurinaitis - LB - Apparently not USC...OSU -
Way too low.The rest I can pretty much agree with.
 
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Stewart will be a first round pick. Like I've said in other threads, he's probably the RB2 in this draft right now. He's leading the Pac-10 in rushing with 130 yards per game at 6.7 YPC. Those are monster numbers. He has the ideal RB build and will be a good performer at the combine. If he enters the draft and has a clean bill of health, he's a first round pick. No doubt about it.
It will be close, but I don't see it right now. He could be RB2, but I don't think it's clear just yet (obviously).
Chris Henry went in the 2nd round strictly on the basis of his combine. Now imagine Chris Henry coming off a 1,700 rushing yard season in which he averaged 6.7 YPC (best among Pac-10 starters by a big margin) and lead his team to a BCS bowl game. How does he not go in the first round? Stewart is having a monster year and he has the physical skill set that the NFL scouts look for. And it's not like he's some bum off the street. He was a five star recruit out of high school and the number one RB recruit in the country according to some high school scouting websites. The last few elite Pac-10 backs who had Stewart's combination of big league statistics and elite combine numbers were first round picks. I fully expect Stewart to keep that tradition alive.
 
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Colin Dowling said:
JaxBill said:
15. Philadelphia - Justin King - CB - PSU - I realize some don't think Philly needs corner help, but I do.
I think they have a much bigger need at safety (which they might wait on) and DE (especially if/when Kearse leaves).
No safeties will justify that spot, alhought there is a ton of DE talent to pick from.
I agree with your pick here. Sheppard is hurt too often, and playing William James regularly is not a good strategy. We need a better CB3. Safety could use some help too but maybe there will be some in the early-to-mid second round. Reid likes to draft the big uglies, so DE is certainly a possibility, especially if Kearse is let go. What we could really use is WR and TE, but no way Reid uses first-rounders on those.
 

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