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HERD's NFL Mock - Short Version (1 Viewer)

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Figured with the top of the draft order set, I'd go on and post how I see things presently. I'm growing more and more inclined to think a number of teams at the top of the board will try and draft down because I think its 50/50 that Leinart comes out and I think there are much more impressive players than the QBs this year, particularly along the Dline, where there is ridiculous depth. I've listed some teams with more than one player, which means I think any of the 2 or 3 listed could be logical choices. Anyway...HERD's Mock - Top 15 Only - Multiple Possibilities1. San Fran - Leinart/Rodgers2. Miami - C. Benson3. Cleveland - Rodgers/Leinart (*preferably trade down for Oline help)4. Chicago - Braylon Edwards / Mike Williams5. Tampa Bay - Derrick Johnson / Rod Wright6. Tennessee - Mathias Kiwanuka / Erasmus James7. Oakland - Ronnie Brown / Braylon Edwards / Mike Williams8. Arizona - Cadillac Williams / Rod. Wright / Ronnie Brown9. Washington - Erasmus James / Matt Roth10. Detroit -R. Wright / Travis Johnson (Preferably trade down and get T.Davis)11. Dallas - Dan Cody / Matt Roth12. San Diego - Braylon Edwards / Mike Williams 13. Houston - DE - (Marcus Spears / Cody / Roth)14. Carolina - Alex Barron 15. Kansas City - Marlin Jackson / DE (Cody / Roth / Spears)I think that there is some significant quality at DE and the new downfield contact rules make it even more important that the front line gets after the QB in a hurry. Colin

 
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I've heard SF is comfortable sticking with Rattay and addressing more glaring concerns in the draft, possibly by trading down. Anyone know about this?

 
While it is not a given that Leinart will declare I do not see him or Rodgers being the franchise QB's that "experts" are predicting. I do not want to turn this into a debate over Leinarts inability to go to his right or Rodgers lack of arm strength.The 49ers and Browns need so much help I do not see either team taking a QB at their current positions.Colin's mock is solid as it is pretty much on par with every other respectable mock out there but when the combines are all said and done I do not see Benson going top 5 (to many carries already), the QB's will not go to the 49ers and Browns at their current spots, Edwards will easily be drafted before Williams (remember Williams was said to be to slow last year before the draft and his stock was falling behind Fitz and Roy) who may be more suited for TE and Barron/Rolle may fly up the charts with solid combines.Tom

 
I'm curious as to what credible basis you have to make a mock such as this? Do you spend the fall months scouting these college players? How many of them have you actually watched play, etc? Not knocking you, but what makes a good mock draft in my opinion is the credibility of the the person doing the mock and what kind of committment they make to watching and scouting college players. Some mockers on the net have access to ACTUAL college scouts and coaches. There are mock drafts across the internet from guys who devote all of their time to the college game. Do you do the same? Or do you look at rankings of college players and find the best-ranked DE and simply plug him into a team with an apparent need for a DE without really having knowledge of that player's style of play other than what we can all read in draft profiles? Just curious, so don't get all huffy and puffy on us.

 
Hundred bucks says that the titans do not pick a DL with their fist pick. they only drafted like 6 last year.

 
HeRD starting to fall in line wif his alter-ego cApella on Bucs choices.Smart man.Still don't see the Benson love..too slow, and not powerful enough if you ARE that slow.Give me Ronnie Brown 5-7 picks later.

 
I've heard SF is comfortable sticking with Rattay and addressing more glaring concerns in the draft, possibly by trading down. Anyone know about this?
But who would want to trade up? WIth no dominating players available, why would another team want to give up multiple picks?Unfortunately the 49ers picked a bad year to get the #1 pick.
 
:no: I stopped reading this mock draft at pick #2 where he has Miami drafting Benson. Come on, give Nick Saban some more credit than that. There are so many things wrong with your #2 pick. 1. Cedric Benson is not a Top 5 draft pick RB, much less a Top 2 draft pick. Is he even the best RB in the draft? There are just as good options in free agency. 2. Nick Saban already realizes that very few RB's could be successful behind that atrocious Miami O-line. Why blow your first draft pick on a RB? 3. Nick Saban wants to build for long-term success, not a cosmetic fixture like Benson. You know what they say, if you don't already have a franchise QB you don't pass one up in the draft. He could also go best offensive tackle in the draft here.
 
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Would Dan Cody br the outside LB or DE in the 3-4 that Parcells conceivably would like to operate next season?I'd love to have him in Dallas.

 
As a Miami Dolphins fan I am really hoping D'Brickashaw Fergesen decides to enter the draft. I've heard he's not but PLEASE GOD PLEASE.

 
I've heard SF is comfortable sticking with Rattay and addressing more glaring concerns in the draft, possibly by trading down. Anyone know about this?
But who would want to trade up? WIth no dominating players available, why would another team want to give up multiple picks?Unfortunately the 49ers picked a bad year to get the #1 pick.
I agree. I can't think of any team that would want to trade up nor can I think of a player worthy of the #1 pick.
 
12. San Diego - Braylon Edwards / Mike Williams Do you really think SD goes receiver? I mean with McCardell,Caldewell, Parker and Osgood plus Gates that is not the most pressing need on the team.I think one od the DE/DT or OL makes more sense. Plus I think Braylon Edwards will keep the UofM receiver bust string going.

 
:no: I stopped reading this mock draft at pick #2 where he has Miami drafting Benson. Come on, give Nick Saban some more credit than that. There are so many things wrong with your #2 pick. 1. Cedric Benson is not a Top 5 draft pick RB, much less a Top 2 draft pick. Is he even the best RB in the draft? There are just as good options in free agency. 2. Nick Saban already realizes that very few RB's could be successful behind that atrocious Miami O-line. Why blow your first draft pick on a RB? 3. Nick Saban wants to build for long-term success, not a cosmetic fixture like Benson. You know what they say, if you don't already have a franchise QB you don't pass one up in the draft. He could also go best offensive tackle in the draft here.
Miami is not going to draft a "franchise QB" in this draft, because there isn't one. I could see them taking a RB but not at #2. I think they will try hard to trade down.
 
Every year we as Fantasy Footballers put RBs high in the NFL draft, and every year they fall to later in the 1st round or early 2nd round in the NFL draft. This year will be no different. I doubt one RB will go in the top 10, let alone three.

 
Miami is not going to draft a "franchise QB" in this draft, because there isn't one. I could see them taking a RB but not at #2. I think they will try hard to trade down.
There certainly are some good QB's in this draft. And you must have forgotten, or don't know, that Nick Saban comes form the Bill Bellicheck school of thought. RB is not a high priority in building a team. It's a luxury you afford yourself when all theother pieces are in place. NO WAY does Nick Saban start off his tenure in Miami by drafting a RB with the number 2 pick. No Way.
 
I'm curious as to what credible basis you have to make a mock such as this? Do you spend the fall months scouting these college players? How many of them have you actually watched play, etc? Not knocking you, but what makes a good mock draft in my opinion is the credibility of the the person doing the mock and what kind of committment they make to watching and scouting college players. Some mockers on the net have access to ACTUAL college scouts and coaches. There are mock drafts across the internet from guys who devote all of their time to the college game. Do you do the same? Or do you look at rankings of college players and find the best-ranked DE and simply plug him into a team with an apparent need for a DE without really having knowledge of that player's style of play other than what we can all read in draft profiles? Just curious, so don't get all huffy and puffy on us.
Not that I need to answer for Colin, but I know the guy watches a lot of college football, and has some really good opinions/insights into the game. I would wager that he reads other mocks to get a general consensus of what players are highly rated at the moment. He then likely assesses team needs and uses both the consensus and his own personal opinion on how a player will work out, and his opinion on how well they will fare as pros to slot players to the teams based primarily on need. He also takes into account the people making the personnel decisions and their previous tendencies for each team when selecting a player for that team.I'd say 80% (and that may be way low) of mocks on the internet are done virtually the same way. HERD provides good analysis and reasons for the picks, rather than just posting them. Plus, with most mocks, there's no input/banter between the readers and the writer. Here, you can ask questions about players and team needs, and he does a commendable job of answering as many of those questions as possible.I know this wasn't meant as an attack, but I would like to counter by saying that a lot of us appreciate the time and effort that goes into all this. I think it's a great read and gives me some advance insight into how the draft might play out in April. I love 'em.... keep it up HERD ! :thumbup:
 
Slight Hijack...Just wanted to say I really appreciate the Mock Draft threads Dowling puts up, as well as the comments and criticism the other sharks add. :thumbup: I don't pretend to be a draftnik and everytime I read these threads I pick up something useful.Please continue...

 
Relax Francis. Geez guys. Give him a break. Its only January and I don't see any of you straping on a sack and putting a mock out there. Feel free to start critizing after the Combine. Until then, shhhhhhuuuutttttuuuuuppppppp.

 
Slight Hijack...Just wanted to say I really appreciate the Mock Draft threads Dowling puts up, as well as the comments and criticism the other sharks add. :thumbup: I don't pretend to be a draftnik and everytime I read these threads I pick up something useful.Please continue...
And another thing, if the criteria to post on this board were limited to actual knowledge, we'd have about 17 total posts. ;)
 
12. San Diego - Braylon Edwards / Mike Williams Do you really think SD goes receiver? I mean with McCardell,Caldewell, Parker and Osgood plus Gates that is not the most pressing need on the team.I think one od the DE/DT or OL makes more sense. Plus I think Braylon Edwards will keep the UofM receiver bust string going.
Chargers have to take the best player available at #12, IMO. If they had the #7 pick (which they would have had if Dallas could have held on Sunday night :hot: ), then I'd be clamoring for a DE or Derrick Johnson.With Dallas likely to go DL at #11, the Chargers have to consider Edwards if he's there. I'm very hesitant about Williams' off year, and unless he shows up at the combine focused and in tremendous shape, I'd pass.If the Bolts take Edwards at 12, they're then hoping Marcus McNeil or Jammal Brown falls to them at #28.It's important to remember that the Chargers draft will likely be shaped by what they're able to obtain via free agency, since they have $20 million to spend, by far the most in the NFL. Whichever holes AJ is able to plug with FAs (DL, LB, OL, WR) will enable him to use his high picks on other holes.Should be an eventful offseason for the Boys in Blue.
 
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Every year we as Fantasy Footballers put RBs high in the NFL draft, and every year they fall to later in the 1st round or early 2nd round in the NFL draft. This year will be no different. I doubt one RB will go in the top 10, let alone three.
Last year, Herd (Colin) predicted that the rbs would be drafted late in his mock drafts. So you can't lump him in there with always put rbs at the top of the draft.
 
Last year, Herd (Colin) predicted that the rbs would be drafted late in his mock drafts. So you can't lump him in there with always put rbs at the top of the draft.
So did every other website who puts up a mock draft. Your point?
 
There is a chance that Benson goes #2, but not to the Miami Dolphins.FOr many of the reasons listed above, but as well for the fact that Miami's 2 greatest needs are O and D linemen, Particualrly a LT and a DT.FWIW, I say Miami trades down to get a 2nd rounder. Hopefully, all the QB hype gets someone to move Up (dallas perhaps?)

 
Also, I think you'll see Carlos Rodgers' stock rising the closer we get to the draft. Dude looked like an absolute beast last night, easily the best defensive player on the field in a game between 2 of the top 3-4 defenses in college football.CB's may be devalued somewhat b/c of the new rules, but Rodgers looks like an immediate impact type player on the next level.

 
:no: I stopped reading this mock draft at pick #2 where he has Miami drafting Benson. Come on, give Nick Saban some more credit than that. There are so many things wrong with your #2 pick. 1. Cedric Benson is not a Top 5 draft pick RB, much less a Top 2 draft pick. Is he even the best RB in the draft? There are just as good options in free agency. 2. Nick Saban already realizes that very few RB's could be successful behind that atrocious Miami O-line. Why blow your first draft pick on a RB? 3. Nick Saban wants to build for long-term success, not a cosmetic fixture like Benson. You know what they say, if you don't already have a franchise QB you don't pass one up in the draft. He could also go best offensive tackle in the draft here.
How was school? Did you pass all your classes? ;) My Mock is formed by ...watching oodles and oodles of college football, both new and old....reading as much info on the internet as possible....talking to a couple acquaintances who still work in the NFL (Texans and Titans) occasionally...discussing it here with you guys, who are often "homers" with certain insight.I appreciate that some of you enjoy the thread, if for no other reason than the discussion we have. If others of you don't care for it, or "stop reading" at some point, thats cool too. COlin
 
Last year, Herd (Colin) predicted that the rbs would be drafted late in his mock drafts. So you can't lump him in there with always put rbs at the top of the draft.
So did every other website who puts up a mock draft. Your point?
I don't follow many mock drafts, but on the boards here, there was a lot of talk that the rbs should be projected higher. Many people thought Detroit would go for a rb with their 1st round draft pick. As the draft got closer, the talk died down. Colin has the rbs going fairly low quite early. He did not hesitate to put out a mock draft in January, just like this year.
 
Every year we as Fantasy Footballers put RBs high in the NFL draft, and every year they fall to later in the 1st round or early 2nd round in the NFL draft. This year will be no different. I doubt one RB will go in the top 10, let alone three.
Fair enough. Many people (not necessarily you, but many people) thought many Mocks were nuts, mine included, for putting so many WRs up top. IIRC, I had 3 in the top-10 (true) and 5 in the top 16 (also true). Regardless, sometimes things that look surprising turn out to be true. As far as the RBs go, I could see them slipping as a result of the wealth of FAs and RFAs out there at the position. However, this draft has ZERO pollished O-linemen (last year had 2), this draft has 2 QBS that SHOULD be good and 2 that are ???? (last year had 3 "franchise guys" and Losman), this draft has MAYBE 2 first round LBs (last year had 2 solid 1st rounders) and this draft has 2 Pro-Ready WRs (last year had 7). The wealth of talent this year is at Corner (a devalued position) and DL. As such, it shouldn't be a shock for their to be some surprises.COlin
 
If you want to bash HERD personally, take it to the FFA.Let's discuss the draft and bash HERDs projected selections here.TIA

 
where's antrel rolle? i think 2 CB's go in the top 15, if not 3. last year no one knew who would emerge from the CB crop (poole, robinson, hall, gamble), so they were all projected as middle/late first rounders around january. as teams got a closer look at them, the teams that needed CB help decided who they liked (atl-hall, hou-robinson) and the mocks reflected that by the time april rolled around. i think we'll see something similar this year, with rolle being the sean taylor gamebreaker top 7 pick, and 2, or maybe even 3 of the decent crop of CBs (jones, rogers, jackson, miller, webster) going in the next 10 or so picks. should be real interesting to see how those 6 very good CB prospects sort themselves out - rolle is definitely head and shoulders above them at this point, but a lot changes as teams get closer longer looks.

 
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HErd,I see a ton of good RBs in this year's draft. Where do you see them going? I think the sleepers for me will be the Big 12 guys (other than Benson) and the SEC guys (other than the Auburn guys)?Thanks for all of your hard work.BTW, I see Morency as a bigtime 3rd-4th round sleeper.

 
where's antrel rolle? i think 2 CB's go in the top 15, if not 3. last year no one knew who would emerge from the CB crop (poole, robinson, hall, gamble), so they were all projected as middle/late first rounders around january. as teams got a closer look at them, the teams that needed CB help decided who they liked (atl-hall, hou-robinson) and the mocks reflected that by the time april rolled around. i think we'll see something similar this year, with rolle being the sean taylor gamebreaker top 7 pick, and 2, or maybe even 3 of the decent crop of CBs (jones, rogers, jackson, miller, webster) going in the next 10 or so picks. should be real interesting to see how those 6 very good CB prospects sort themselves out - rolle is definitely head and shoulders above them at this point, but a lot changes as teams get closer longer looks.
I really like Rolle, but I've seen in 3 different spots that he's about .1 to .2 slower than expected, which would drop him. I've had him as high as 3 or 4 in earlier editions and truthfully, he could easily fit in higher here too. He is a very good player, but I'm not sure he's as good in coverage as Hall and/or Robinson.COlin
 
HErd,I see a ton of good RBs in this year's draft. Where do you see them going? I think the sleepers for me will be the Big 12 guys (other than Benson) and the SEC guys (other than the Auburn guys)?Thanks for all of your hard work.BTW, I see Morency as a bigtime 3rd-4th round sleeper.
I'm very excited to see where Cedric Houston ends up. He's a VERY strong runner. I think most people underestimate his vision and quickness. HE could go late 2nd, early 3rd and immmediately contribute. COlin
 
While I would be highly surprised if the Titans took a DE in round one, James is a talent far superior to that which we drafted last year. It would pretty much erase half of our draft efforts from 2004, though. We'd have great depth at the position at least, and cheap at that.If Derrick Johnson is a MLB only, we wouldn't have much use for him. We end up in the nickel a lot in the AFC South, and an every-down MLB isn't a priority. I still think Johnson is the top guy on the Titans' draft board (of guys who will make it to 6).

 
HErd,I see a ton of good RBs in this year's draft. Where do you see them going? I think the sleepers for me will be the Big 12 guys (other than Benson) and the SEC guys (other than the Auburn guys)?Thanks for all of your hard work.BTW, I see Morency as a bigtime 3rd-4th round sleeper.
I'm very excited to see where Cedric Houston ends up. He's a VERY strong runner. I think most people underestimate his vision and quickness. HE could go late 2nd, early 3rd and immmediately contribute. COlin
I agree. Do you like Morency, Sproles (sp?), and the other mid round Big 12 guys? Also, how about Gore from the 'Canes?
 
How was school?  Did you pass all your classes?  ;)
Some of us strive much higher than Southwestern University.
Really? Where? Are you a Haaaaaavard man?
Since you're asking....yes I am.Thanks for playing.
That fits.Arrogant? Check.Misinformed? Check.Not contributing anything constructive? CheckHere's your hat. See you Spring Break... :rotflmao:
Not quite, but I won't bother to elaborate on your "fit."Nonetheless, see you in South Padre.
 
HErd,I see a ton of good RBs in this year's draft.  Where do you see them going?  I think the sleepers for me will be the Big 12 guys (other than Benson) and the SEC guys (other than the Auburn guys)?Thanks for all of your hard work.BTW, I see Morency as a bigtime 3rd-4th round sleeper.
I'm very excited to see where Cedric Houston ends up. He's a VERY strong runner. I think most people underestimate his vision and quickness. HE could go late 2nd, early 3rd and immmediately contribute. COlin
I agree. Do you like Morency, Sproles (sp?), and the other mid round Big 12 guys? Also, how about Gore from the 'Canes?
Of the 3 you mentioned, all have the kinds of "warts" that might drop them to late 1st day or even day 2. (Sort of like a couple years ago when Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Artose Pinner, etc. slipped. and like last year when Michael Turner and Mewelde Moore slipped).Morency is "not young." Sproles is "not big". And Gore is "not without injury history." As such, I expect all 3 to go lower than expected as the teams that need help at RB select from the higher rated half dozen or so guys (Brown, Benson, Williams, Williams, Houston, etc.). The 3 you mentioned will all be drafted certainly, but I believe they'll make it to camp as 3rd and 4th RBs who earn PT ther hard way.*I really like Morency. I think he is a good runner who could potentially carry the load in the NFL. However, I can't tell if he's going to be a guy people target or a guy that slips. I've seen some people rank him in the top 30-50, and some not even have him in the top-100. I think he has the BEST chance of these 3 to end up being counted on as an every down contributor.COlin
 
HErd,I see a ton of good RBs in this year's draft. Where do you see them going? I think the sleepers for me will be the Big 12 guys (other than Benson) and the SEC guys (other than the Auburn guys)?Thanks for all of your hard work.BTW, I see Morency as a bigtime 3rd-4th round sleeper.
I'm very excited to see where Cedric Houston ends up. He's a VERY strong runner. I think most people underestimate his vision and quickness. HE could go late 2nd, early 3rd and immmediately contribute. COlin
the RB crop is looking especially strong this season, morency and arrington will be huge steals - both seem ready to carry the load right away. Fason has the highest upside of any RB in the draft, and he's not even in the top 3. guys like mcclendon, d. williams, gore, barber (did he declare?), KJ Harris, and Houston all look they will contribute right away, and theres even the fun gamble of clarett out there. this year, it will pay dividends to wait til the 3rd/4th round to go RB.
 
just a quick note on morency, i dont think his age is as much a problem as some make it out to be. antowain smith was 25 when he came out, and i believe the bills saw his age as a plus, since he was more mature and generally more professional - he was already a "man". of course, i haven't studied up on morency's reputation enough to know whether the comparison is really warranted, but i thought it was a similar enough situation to note since morency's age came up.

 

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