Why is Chris Johnson so high on the list? He's good but not that good and LenDale White's still around. I'd be hard-pressed to have him in the top-10. Top-5? No way.
Same reason Forte is 6th. It's Shiny New Toy Syndrome.
who do you thing should be above them in PPR DYNASTY leagues?Bush, Barber? DeAngelo?Really after ADP there is a pretty messy tier. Forte and CJ have a flavor of week feel, but I cant see grabbing Lynch or Portis or the Ronnie BRowns of the world over them in a start up keeper
I think there's way too strong a tendency to overvalue people after one year. It happens all the time. This year we'll have 2-3 good running backs that everyone will get excited about, knocking people down further..same in 2010. That should naturally occur in a cycle, yes. But over the span of a year, no.Since you asked, lemme throw together my rankings. I'm putting this together over my lunch break, so apologies in advance if it's train-of-thought. I might disagree with myself tomorrow. Final list is at the bottom. In dynasty rankings, I feel the first few tend to stand out. I have no argument with Peterson, MJD, or Jackson. I could rank Jackson 2nd, really. After that, I look for a combination of talent, wear&tear, career/production, and situation. Having all three of those factors is an advantage. Lacking one or two of them ranks you lower than your equivalent. Projecting dynasty beyond 5 years is pretty silly, so when I say wear/tear, I mean “will they hold up in 2013?” Because of that, backs like Tomlinson and Portis are pretty low. They’ve been awesome, but I’m not investing in them for the future. They’re year-by-year cases.First: Good Wear, Good History, Good SituationThus, I'd have Gore 4th, because he's had the best combination of factors. He's 25, has missed 5 games in four productive years, and is a bellcow that plays the whole game. I'd have Turner 5th. He's older, but fresh, was productive as a backup and a starter, is the undoubted focus of the running offense. Next: Good Wear, Good History, Average SituationFor me, that's Lynch, Barber, and Williams at 6-8. A lot of people will dispute Lynch, but he seems to carry 8 guys into the end zone at least once a week and despite his legal troubles, is seen as a good teammate who’s just made a couple of judgment mistakes. That’s not defending his issues, but his football desirability (contrast to TO, Burress). I think Jackson's less of a threat than people think. Barber’s demonstrated that even if he loses some carries to another back, he’s worth having--and starting. Next is Williams, despite his timeshare, because of how things shook out in 2008. I don’t think he’ll get 18td’s, but I think he’ll remain the primary ballcarrier over Stewart--and once his contract ends in 2011, he’ll almost undoubtedly go somewhere else to be a feature back if his production continues (and it should).Next: Average Wear, Good History, Average Situation9. Jacobs, who puts up great numbers but isn’t quite the bellcow you’d like due to his propensity for injury. 10. Brown, who has produced, and is in line to assume the primary role a year removed from HIS injury, but whose performances weren’t always inspiring in 2008. I think the talent is still there, but not enough to rank him higher. 11. Bush, in PPR only, for obvious reasons. I think Thomas’s capabilities in the passing game could threaten him a bit, but that Bush will remain the Saints’ WR2. I also don’t think Bush will be as useful on many other teams, and his injury prone nature worries me. Next: Good Wear, Poor History, Unknown Situation12. Johnson13. Slaton -- Johnson and Slaton are neck and neck. CJ has an existing red zone vulture and Slaton might have one, but their dynamism gives them an edge over those with better situations. They're both in systems that fit their talents, and the only reason I have CJ higher is because you can't ignore the sheer amount of rushing attempts the Titans will likely have in the near future. I wouldn't trade either of them for each other, that's how close I see it. 14. Smith15. Forte -- These two are very situation-based. I think they're solid talents that are going to be focal points and won't lose any red zone opportunities. I think Smith is better. But then, I've never liked Forte, so that's clear bias. Over the next 5 years I expect both teams to improve offensively. I think this lowers Forte and raises Smith. 16. Stewart17. McFaddenI think Stewart's second-fiddle until Williams leaves, which takes away a fair chunk of dynasty value. McFadden might wind up as Reggie Bush II, but I don't think he'll be a featured back. I could easily rank him lower. Back to Stewart: do I believe he is less talented than Forte or Smith? Or for that matter, Slaton or Johnson? No, I don’t. I think Stewart’s superior. But if you’re investing in him, there are a lot of question marks over the next five years, and that's the sort of thing I try to avoid. Next: Too Many Question Marks but Need Mentioning due to Good or Average SituationThese are the guys that are proven performers and will still see the ball a lot, but who might decline sharply or find themselves struggling due to a lack of talent. 18. Addai. Yeah, that lack of talent was directed towards him. He’s the hardest to judge. I haven’t seen him enough to judge whether or not I think he’ll bounce back, but I think his declining numbers are a bad sign. He could easily be ranked elsewhere by someone who has more faith. Still, you can’t deny that he’s had success in the past, and I think he has to be considered here.19. Pierre Thomas. Is he for real? How will Bush cut into his numbers? He’s undoubtedly able to lead fantasy teams, but it remains to be seen just how the Saints timeshare will shake out. 20. Rashard Mendenhall. He was seen as ridiculously talented. Willie Parker’s not for too long. Mendenhall has the perfect opportunity to impress in a good offense for his skills. Next: Not Top 20 for A Few Reasons, and in No Particular Order but with Multiple Years of Use21. Ryan Grant -- I’m just not sold on him. Again, this is why we all do rankings. I may be selling him short, but he's always seemed very one-dimensional to me. I keep waiting for him to turn back into a pumpkin, and for half of last year, he did.22. Derrick Ward -- I think he’ll be solid for a few years, but long-term I don’t trust him. 23. Felix Jones -- I own Felix. I’m still not sold on him as an every-down back. I have high hopes, but I’m realistic in ranking him. No matter how much you love him, there just isn't enough here to make a judgment.24. Ray Rice -- Seriously, I can see McClain stealing TDs for the rest of Rice’s career in Baltimore. Rice is in real danger of NOT being the next MJD, but I think he'll get a good shot at fantasy respectability once McGahee is gone.Next: Redraft-only targets, or “Poor Wear, Good History, Regardless of Situation”, also in No Particular Order-Tomlinson: I miss you already. You could linger for a few years as a solid, average running back, but the Chargers are looking for your successor. -Portis is only a few months older than Brown, but I think his constant heavy workload’s going to slow him down sooner rather than later. He started off 2008 strong but really petered out at the end. No run over 15 yards in the last 5 games and a 2.9 YPC. That’s Tim Hightower worthy. Was it a bad stretch? Possibly. I wouldn’t want to gamble on it beyond 2009. -Westbrook: 2008 was underwhelming, he’s approaching the wrong side of 30, and the Eagles sound like they want to timeshare.-Thomas Jones -- Hope you enjoyed his career year. He’s a solid player but it’s downhill from here.-Larry Johnson -- I think he’ll remain inconsistent and useful in some matchups. Good luck guessing which ones. -Cedric Benson -- League average but should be the primary carrier and score some points for you. After this, my list looks like: (1) 1. Adrian Peterson 3/21/85 --- 69.5% (MJD 13%)(2) 2. Maurice Jones-Drew 3/23/85 --- 46.6% (SJax 27%)(3) 3. Steven Jackson 7/22/83 --- 47.2% (CJ 17%)(4) 5. Frank Gore 5/14/83 --- 24.7% (Forte 22%)(5) 7. Michael Turner 2/13/82 --- 20.6% (DWill 10%)(6) 10. Marshawn Lynch 4/22/86 --- 14.9% (Bush 14%)(7) 9. Marion Barber III 6/10/83 --- 32.6% (JStew 11%)(8) 8. DeAngelo Williams 4/25/83 --- 32.6% (MB3 19%)(9) 19. Brandon Jacobs 7/6/82 --- 32.28% (Addai 19%)(10) 15. Ronnie Brown 12/12/81 --- 23.33% (DFad 14%)(11) 11. Reggie Bush 2/2/85 --- 14.5% (2 Tied at 12%)(12) 4. Chris Johnson 9/23/85 --- 33.3% (Forte 18%) (13) 14. Steve Slaton 1/4/86 --- 23.29% (Brown 19%) (14) NL. Kevin Smith(15) 6. Matt Forte 12/10/85 --- 22.6% (Turner 20%)(16) 12. Jonathan Stewart 5/21/87 --- 20.4% (Portis 18%)(17) 17. Darren McFadden 8/27/87 --- 18.58% (2 tied at 14%)(18) 20. Joseph Addai 5/3/83 --- 29.65% (KSmith 22%)(19) NL. Pierre Thomas(20) NL. Rashard MendenhallOutside looking in (21-24): Grant, Ward, Jones, RiceDisclaimer: Because people always want to try and guess which players people own--as if people can't objectively analyze situations despite ownership--I have a number of these on my 4 teams, including MJD, Gore, Turner, Lynch, Slaton, Thomas, Mendenhall, Ward, Jones, and Rice. So, please no one accuse me of owning anyone I don't. Thanks. =)ETA: The one I feel has the most chance of dropping out of the top 20 completely is Forte. Hell, you could probably convince me to swap him and Addai if I had more time to analyze it.
Wells... Moreno ...and McCoy have all more heralded , stand out college careers than CJ , Forte, and Slaton
I too see CJ and Slaton as very close in value, but CJ's percieved value is much higher for reasons that are not 100% clear. For example, I drafted both in a start-up last year and, being stocked at RB, thought about trying to move Slaton in the off season - offers were very poor. So I decided to trade CJ instead and landed a top 3 WR. The more I think about the two, I'm starting to lean towards Slaton - he looked great last year.
