What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

History of Teams Starting Rookie QB Week 1 Across the SB Era (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Here's the full tale of the tape for all the QBs that have started the first game of their rookie season going back to 1966 . . .
Year, Draft Position, Player, W/L the Season Before, W/L as a Rookie, Playoffs, W/L in Post-Season:

W L W L Play W L
2020 1 Joe Burrow CIN 2 14 2.5 7.5
2019 1 Kyler Murray ARI 3 13 5.5 10.5
2018 3 Sam Darnold NYJ 5 11 4 9
2017 52 DeShone Kizer CLE 1 15 0 15
2016 2 Carson Wentz PHI 7 9 7 9
2016 135 Dak Prescott DAL 4 12 13 3 Y 0 1
2015 1 Jameis Winston TBB 2 14 6 10
2015 2 Marcus Mariota TEN 2 14 3 9
2014 36 Derek Carr LVR 4 12 3 13
2013 16 EJ Manuel BUF 6 10 4 6
2013 39 Geno Smith NYJ 6 10 8 8
2012 1 Andrew Luck IND 2 14 11 5 Y 0 1
2012 2 Robert Griffin WAS 5 11 9 6 Y 0 1
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill MIA 6 10 7 9
2012 22 Brandon Weeden CLE 4 12 5 10
2012 75 Russell Wilson SEA 7 9 11 5 Y 1 1
2011 1 Cam Newton CAR 2 14 6 10
2011 35 Andy Dalton CIN 4 12 9 7 Y 0 1
2010 1 Sam Bradford LAR 1 15 7 9
2009 1 Matt Stafford DET 0 16 2 8
2009 5 Mark Sanchez NYJ 9 7 8 7 Y 2 1
2008 3 Matt Ryan ATL 4 12 11 5 Y 0 1
2008 18 Joe Flacco BAL 5 11 11 5 Y 2 1
2005 106 Kyle Orton CHI 5 11 10 5 Y 0 1
2003 19 Kyle Boller BAL 7 9 5 4 Y 0 1
2002 1 David Carr HOU NA NA 4 12
2001 53 Quincy Carter DAL 5 11 3 5
2001 106 Chris Weinke CAR 7 9 1 14
1998 1 Peyton Manning IND 3 13 3 13
1993 1 Drew Bledsoe NEP 2 14 5 7
1990 1 Jeff George IND 8 8 5 7
1989 1 Troy Aikman DAL 3 13 0 11
1987 110 Steve Beuerlein LVR 5 10 4 4
1983 1 John Elway IND 2 7 4 6 Y 0 1
1982 84 Mike Pagel IND 2 14 0.5 8.5
1978 17 Doug Williams TBB 2 12 4 6
1975 1 S. Bartkowski ATL 3 11 4 7
1973 2 Bert Jones IND 5 9 1 4
1971 1 Jim Plunkett NEP 2 12 6 8
1971 2 Archie Manning NOS 2.5 11.5 4 6
1970 1 Terry Bradshaw PIT 5 9 3 5
1969 5 Greg Cook CIN 3 11 4.5 6.5
1968 11 Greg Landry DET 6 8 0 2
1966 16 Randy Johnson ATL 1.5 12.5 3 8
170 492 227 335 5 11



Initial Observations . . .

A lot of this will be hard to compare, as most teams that started a rookie started a player that was a high draft pick . . . which they earned because they were terrible the season before. There could also have been a change in coaches as well (and other personnel changes). And certainly we are in a different era than ever before.

Overall, it's only happened 44 times in 54 years. This season, there will be 3 teams starting rookie QBs out of the gate. The only time there's been more than 2 was in 2012 (when there were 5 opening day rookie QBs).

The only team that had a winning record the season before that elected to start the season with a rookie was the 2009 Jets with Marc Sanchez. He and Joe Flacco were the only two QB to win 2 playoff games as a rookie (that started in Week 1). Speaking of the Jets, Wilson will become the 4th first day starting QB for New York in 13 years (Darnold, Smith, Sanchez).

On average, from 1966-2020, the winning percentage with a first day starting QB went up from .257 to .404 in the games with the rookie QBs compared to their team's record the season before. Across a 17 game season, that's the difference from winning 4.4 games to winning 6.9 games.

But from 1966-2002 (36 years), it was a barren wasteland. No Game 1 starting rookie QB had a winning record. Starting with Randy Johnson (before he became a HOF pitcher) through David Carr. That's 19 guys, including the likes of future HOFers Bradshaw, Aikman, Peyton, and Elway (although somehow the Broncos managed to make the playoffs when Steve DeBerg won at a much better clip when Elway got hurt in 1983).

Breaking things up into 1966-2002 . . . Teams won at a .257 clip the season before and improved to .296 with the rookie QBs starting. There was 1 playoff team out of 19 teams (5%). Across a 17 game season, the difference would have been an improvement from 4.4 wins to 5 wins.

But in 2003-2020, teams won at a .258 clip the season before but improved to .463 with rookie QBs starting Week 1. There with 10 playoff teams out of 25 teams (40%). Oddly enough, that trend seems to have tapered off since 2012, as only 1 of 11 teams since then managed to make the playoffs (9%). From 2003-2012, an amazing 9 of 14 teams that started rookie QBs made the post-season (64%).

Clearly in more recent times there have been a lot more teams willing to give rookies a shot at starting (18 players in the past 10 years vs. 16 players in the first 34 years). The coach speak has usually been that a QB could be ruined if he started too soon. Certainly there are a bunch of QBs that faded fast on this list, but there certainly are a lot that went on to successful careers. Plenty of these QBs had terrible records in the early going but turned out ok.

Based on all that, what do people see in the cards this year for Lawrence, Wilson, and Jones (and who knows, maybe the Niners and Bears will have have Lance and Fields start Week 1)? Records for their teams? Playoff chances?

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
IDC if Fields or Lance start WK1, I figure both will start the majority of Oct games and every game in Nov/Dec/Jan.

Here's how I see it:

Lance 9-8 #7 seed first round loss
Jones 8-9
Fields 7-10
Lawrence 6-11
Wilson 5-12

Mills (?) 4-13

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Nice analysis. One thing we know (or perhaps think), is that football players in general are coming out of college more prepared to play professionally than in old-timey times. I would imagine this helps the ramp at QB, but maybe not in year one. After seeing this post six minutes ago, I went and put in a ton of additional AND PROPRIETARY analysis and came up with the following:

  • Mac (7-10)
  • Wilson (6-11)
  • Lawrence (4-13)
 
Last edited by a moderator:

rzrback77

IBL Representative
I think that the Patriots are better all around that people are giving them credit and will do the  best of the five teams with rookies starting. I don't think that Dalton will last long at all, so I am estimating Fields starts in week three. I do believe that the 49ers will run out that tandem for several games, but if they lose two of the first five and Lance is equally as effective as Jimmy G, then he will start week six. Nice thread and appreciate the analysis going way back.

  • Patriots with Jones 10-7
  • 49ers with combo 9-8 - Lance begins to start in week 6
  • Bears with combo 7-10 - Fields begins to start in week 3
  • Jets with Wilson 6-11
  • Jaguars with Lawrence 3-14
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top