Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Holt - just let him go (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BigRed
- Start date
vamphyri
Footballguy
You mean this one?No idea why the orig thread was deleted, but anyway......
5/23 last week. People cutting him or still refusing to face reality?
packersfan
Footballguy
VERY tempted to cut him. The only thing swaying me against it is this:
Week 7: vs. Dallas
Week 8: at NE
Week 9: vs. Ari
Week 10: at NYJ
Week 11: at SF
That's five straight weeks of good to great matchups - even for the Rams. I keep going back and forth on whether that's enough incentive to keep him or should I just wave the white flag and admit defeat and move on?
Week 7: vs. Dallas
Week 8: at NE
Week 9: vs. Ari
Week 10: at NYJ
Week 11: at SF
That's five straight weeks of good to great matchups - even for the Rams. I keep going back and forth on whether that's enough incentive to keep him or should I just wave the white flag and admit defeat and move on?
FFdork
Footballguy
I think I more or less wrote this before in the other thread:
Unless you're in a very small league, a no-trade league or the deadline has passed, why would you outright drop him? In the league I own him I have had weekly inquiries from people hoping to buy low. If you think he's not going to bounce back, you should be able to get something. His name value alone can be helpful in a package deal.
He's been a disappointment, but even in leagues that only start 2 WR he should be a bench guy at the very least.
Unless you're in a very small league, a no-trade league or the deadline has passed, why would you outright drop him? In the league I own him I have had weekly inquiries from people hoping to buy low. If you think he's not going to bounce back, you should be able to get something. His name value alone can be helpful in a package deal.
He's been a disappointment, but even in leagues that only start 2 WR he should be a bench guy at the very least.
BigRed
Footballguy
I did a search on "Holt" and that didn't come up. :embarrassed: oh wellJust not buying Haslett as making this huge change. As I said in the other thread, in "smaller" leagues/rosters at least there are likely better WRs to have IMOYou mean this one?No idea why the orig thread was deleted, but anyway......
5/23 last week. People cutting him or still refusing to face reality?
packersfan
Footballguy
Not in mine. I can't give him away - and I'm not trying to get a star in return for him by any means. Nobody wants the guy because there are 40-45 WRs who have been better which means you can grab somebody off the WW each week and get better production from that guy than you would from Holt. The question I have is whether the upcoming schedule will help or if it's too late and if anybody emerges at WR for the Rams it's going to be Avery.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
that's why you stash him, and hope that stl figures out it's offense at some pt.
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree about the schedule but we're six weeks in and Holt has been bad in five of them. That's a third of the season gone by in which Holt has been terrible. So I don't think people are being myopic in wondering if this trend is going to remain in place for the remainder of the season. It's a legitimate question given how poor his production has been.
packersfan
Footballguy
Depending on your league rules, limits and who's on the WW, stashing Holt may not be an option - or possibly not a good one if it means passing on a more productive WR.
Not sure I agree with the matchups. 4 of those 5 are in the top 10 in sacks, which means pressure on Bulger, which I believe is what killed him the first time. They might not be the best past defenses, but those 5 are better at rushing the passer than the first 5 they faced. That would worry me.
aldelgreco
Footballguy
lol.
this is like a support thread.
traded for him for harrison straight up in week 2.
I am holding him though.
Like someone said earlier.....I am hopeful for name recognition in a package deal hopefully in a week after he gets a TD or 2, which he will.
this is like a support thread.
traded for him for harrison straight up in week 2.
I am holding him though.
Like someone said earlier.....I am hopeful for name recognition in a package deal hopefully in a week after he gets a TD or 2, which he will.
FWIW to any Holt owner curious about gauging value, I've got these two straight-up offers on the table to the Holt owner: one for Chad Johnson, and the other for Lance Moore.
Johnson is basically in the same boat as Holt -- former elite WR having a way-down year in a struggling offense. Pick your poison on that one.
Moore is more intriguing IMO. If you think Colston will cut into Henderson, Meachem, etc. and leave Moore still a solid 7/80 type guy with a few TDs sprinkled in, then that's a solid deal for someone ready to bail on Holt.
Johnson is basically in the same boat as Holt -- former elite WR having a way-down year in a struggling offense. Pick your poison on that one.
Moore is more intriguing IMO. If you think Colston will cut into Henderson, Meachem, etc. and leave Moore still a solid 7/80 type guy with a few TDs sprinkled in, then that's a solid deal for someone ready to bail on Holt.
the spanker
Footballguy
Dude if your going to drop him then at least wait untill after the Cowboys game. If Holt can't turn it around against that terrible secondary he never will.
zamboni
Footballguy
My thoughts precisely. Granted, he's been disappointing this year, but there are loads of other proven studs that have underperformed as well.Benching him is understandable if you have more productive options, but outright dropping him? Seems like a move than can really backfire.
Last edited by a moderator:
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree. That's why I posted the upcoming schedule. I'm very likely going to keep him but I don't think it's an outrageous question to pose about just dropping him. The only reason it's a question is because he's Torry Holt. If he was Joe Blow putting up those numbers, he'd be sitting on a ton of WWs right now. He's being consistently outperformed by guys like Antwaan Randle El. Think about that for a moment.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Yes, we are 6 games in, but he has faced Phi, NYG, Buf, and Wash defenses which are tough and a so/so Seattle team. I am not in love with Holt at this stage, but I think he is a hold candidate at least for the next 2 weeks.the spanker
Footballguy
Right, then after he has a big game (which he should) then you can consider moving him while his value is higher but to drop him at this point is a ridiculous notion IMHO.Yes, we are 6 games in, but he has faced Phi, NYG, Buf, and Wash defenses which are tough and a so/so Seattle team. I am not in love with Holt at this stage, but I think he is a hold candidate at least for the next 2 weeks.
packersfan
Footballguy
Conversely, four of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in overall pass defense. The Patriots rank the highest their secondary has a lot of issues. And each of the five teams rank in the lower half of the league in TD passes allowed. The Cardinals are last.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Holt owner
the rams just beat what many people thought was probably one of the 5 best teams in the league at their place....they just came off a bye wek before that....I think I look at that as a sign that things might get better in STL.....it may take a while and they may still play some ugly games, but beating Wash should not be overlooked...the rams may be in the process of becoming a better overall team....how does that affect Holt ...I don't know, but Holt will be a part of this offense, and if the team continues to improve, I would expect Holt's numbers to improve as well.....
he may/will not put up the numbers we are used to from him, but I could see his numbers getting better as the season goes on...giving up on him seems a little premature at this point....we have seen teams turn things around before, and maybe the Rams are headed that way....if so Holt will be along for the ride.....Avrey's development will only help
the rams just beat what many people thought was probably one of the 5 best teams in the league at their place....they just came off a bye wek before that....I think I look at that as a sign that things might get better in STL.....it may take a while and they may still play some ugly games, but beating Wash should not be overlooked...the rams may be in the process of becoming a better overall team....how does that affect Holt ...I don't know, but Holt will be a part of this offense, and if the team continues to improve, I would expect Holt's numbers to improve as well.....
he may/will not put up the numbers we are used to from him, but I could see his numbers getting better as the season goes on...giving up on him seems a little premature at this point....we have seen teams turn things around before, and maybe the Rams are headed that way....if so Holt will be along for the ride.....Avrey's development will only help
Last edited by a moderator:
FFdork
Footballguy
You're correct--people are holding because Holt has been very productive for a long time, which can't be said about Joe Blow. Every year you have receivers (& players in general) that get off to slow starts. Many bounce back and some bust. It seems like things had gotten ugly under Linehan, so I'm going to hold to see if he can turn it around (or trade him in the right deal).I picked up Drew Brees in multiple leagues last year where he was dropped outright and road him to championships. You could have written the same thing about Braylon Edwards until last week. I don't have the time to do a study, but my guess is that under-performing studs outperform the vast majority of the hot week 7 waiver wire wonders going forward, especially at WR where you have such inconsistent weekly returns. Guys like Steve Smith (Giants) and Randal El got signed this week in my 3 WR leagues. As bad as Holt has been, I wouldn't want to put money on either of those guys doing better than him going forward.
Tau837
Footballguy
I think anyone who drafted Holt and didn't move him early in a trade has to hold at this point, for these reasons:
1. The schedule appears to be easier going forward.
2. Avery has emerged in the past couple of games and should draw some attention away from Holt. Plus, Bennett is supposedly 1-2 weeks from returning, which could also help.
3. Linehan was feuding with Holt and didn't try to get him the ball enough. In his first game under Haslett, Holt had almost twice as many targets (11) as he averaged under Linehan (6) this year. This followed the team's statement that they would move him around more rather than just keeping him at the X position in an effort to get him the ball more, so I expect increased targets to continue. An increase in production should follow an increase in opportunity. Holt's targets this year:
Week 1 (Linehan) - 2
Week 2 (Linehan) - 7
Week 3 (Linehan) - 8
Week 4 (Linehan) - 7
Week 6 (Haslett) - 11
4. Holt has historically been significantly better at home than on the road (based on FBG scoring), and that trend has continued so far this year:
+2.9 ppg (12.6 to 9.7) for his career
+4.3 ppg (14.2 to 9.9) since start of 2003 (5 preceding years plus this year)
+4.9 ppg (12.4 to 7.5) since start of 2006 (2 preceding years plus this year)
+7.8 ppg (10.1 to 2.3) in 5 games this year
6 of Holt's remaining 11 games are at home. And one of the road games is in week 17, when many leagues have ended... so for many leagues, it is 6 of 10 home games. As for fantasy playoffs, he is @ARI in week 14 and then home in weeks 15 and 16.
If I didn't already have Holt, I'd be looking to get him cheap. If you can pull it off and have enough depth, you could just get him and start him at home, but I'd go after him even if you have to start him every week from here forward.
1. The schedule appears to be easier going forward.
2. Avery has emerged in the past couple of games and should draw some attention away from Holt. Plus, Bennett is supposedly 1-2 weeks from returning, which could also help.
3. Linehan was feuding with Holt and didn't try to get him the ball enough. In his first game under Haslett, Holt had almost twice as many targets (11) as he averaged under Linehan (6) this year. This followed the team's statement that they would move him around more rather than just keeping him at the X position in an effort to get him the ball more, so I expect increased targets to continue. An increase in production should follow an increase in opportunity. Holt's targets this year:
Week 1 (Linehan) - 2
Week 2 (Linehan) - 7
Week 3 (Linehan) - 8
Week 4 (Linehan) - 7
Week 6 (Haslett) - 11
4. Holt has historically been significantly better at home than on the road (based on FBG scoring), and that trend has continued so far this year:
+2.9 ppg (12.6 to 9.7) for his career
+4.3 ppg (14.2 to 9.9) since start of 2003 (5 preceding years plus this year)
+4.9 ppg (12.4 to 7.5) since start of 2006 (2 preceding years plus this year)
+7.8 ppg (10.1 to 2.3) in 5 games this year
6 of Holt's remaining 11 games are at home. And one of the road games is in week 17, when many leagues have ended... so for many leagues, it is 6 of 10 home games. As for fantasy playoffs, he is @ARI in week 14 and then home in weeks 15 and 16.
If I didn't already have Holt, I'd be looking to get him cheap. If you can pull it off and have enough depth, you could just get him and start him at home, but I'd go after him even if you have to start him every week from here forward.
Last edited by a moderator:
the spanker
Footballguy
I agree. And besides when Holt goes off (not a matter of if to me) would you rather have him on your roster, even if he's on your bench or another guy's (who has nothing to lose) scrub/starting lineup?
ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
Anyone remember Chris Carter circa 2000? He started the season off really slow. No TDs and only 1 game over 70 yards for the first 6 weeks. In week 7 he broke out, and he only had 1 down week after that. I remember thinking that year, I should have known he'd eventually come around. Why didnt I trade for him? I could have had him for nothing. At the very least, it would have been worth the risk to get him on my team.That doesnt happen every year, but it does happen. Dropping Holt outright is an idiot move. Trade for him, or just keep him benched.FFdork said:
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
As Just Win Baby pointed out, Holt is historically much better at home than on the road. At this point, he's worth starting for all remaining home games and those matchups look favorable. Bench him for road games if you have better options. Also keep in mind, this is probably his last shot at a big contract. The guy is 32 now. He becomes a free agent in 2010. He needs to play well to have some leverage next season to possibly get that final 3-4 year contract to finish out his career. He either gets traded in 2009 or the Rams rework his deal. But Holt has indicated that he is not interested in signing an extension with the Rams, and he is only due $5.65 and $6.65 million in the last two years of his contract. He really needs to put up some numbers now to put himself in the best possible position to get a better deal because it will be his last chance.
Butters
Footballguy
JWB summed it up very well. I guess I could see the justification for dropping him if, say, you have Addai on your roster and need to pick up Rhodes. Something like that. But there is probably very little out there that is enticing as a replacement just as a matter of course.
Tau837
Footballguy
This is a reason to get him this week. If he has a big game this weekend, it will be much harder to get him cheaply next week.
footballnerd
Footballguy
He's going up against two rookie corners.
BigRed
Footballguy
Exactly. I'm not saying it's "dumb" to keep him either, and in fact probably in bigger leagues likely the right move as there's probably not much on the WW. And he'll likely have a good game or 2 - but you could say that about a lot of other "lesser" WRs, and in fact some with better production and/or even potential......but a lot of people are hanging on due to the name.
Nice post, but I very seriously doubt if you get him that you will "start him every week" - in fact probably very little if at all, and with good reason. And why hang onto a guy you hope to never have to use?Just Win Baby said:
? er that's meaningless unless you get points for your bench players, which most leagues don't.
Tau837
Footballguy
As a matter of fact, I have started Holt every week except his bye week, and I plan to start him the rest of the season unless he gets hurt. Of course, I play in a 16 team, start 3 WRs league with a short bench (5 players)... so you are completely wrong in your "very serious doubts."
Holt + Schaub for Jennings...
Esctatic about it. Guy needed a qb badly, but wouldn't pull the deal for jennings straight up, understandably so. Throwing in choice of Holt or Ocho got the deal done. How the mighty have fallen in regards to both those bums. SO yeah, moral of the story, he might have some value in a package deal trade. He might also turn it around, but I personally don't have the time to wait that out. Redrafts dictate that you make sharp moves when necessary to take a championship down in any given year...
Esctatic about it. Guy needed a qb badly, but wouldn't pull the deal for jennings straight up, understandably so. Throwing in choice of Holt or Ocho got the deal done. How the mighty have fallen in regards to both those bums. SO yeah, moral of the story, he might have some value in a package deal trade. He might also turn it around, but I personally don't have the time to wait that out. Redrafts dictate that you make sharp moves when necessary to take a championship down in any given year...
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree and well done on your trade. I've been trying for weeks to package Holt in a deal that would get me Jennings or Holmes (owner has both) but the guy wants nothing to do with Holt. Nobody in my league does. I can't give him away right now. Good job turning him into an upgrade (and to this point a gigantic one) at WR.
Best part is I start rogers. Actually, the best part is I got schaub off the wires 2 weeks ago when he was sick and sage started...
the spanker
Footballguy
I still say Holt shouldn't be on waivers in 12 man PPR leagues. Now with that said I dropped him today ONLY because he was my 5th WR. My other WRs are very strong (Marshall, AJ, Boldin, Cotch) and picked up Pittman as my # 4 RB (Westy, Bush, and Slaton) to balance out my roster.
Like the stock market...er maybe a bad example right now ...I like to be diversified.
Like the stock market...er maybe a bad example right now
...I like to be diversified.
Last edited by a moderator:
Im in an IDP and managed to package him in... the trade is pretty lopsided in his favor but I have plenty of depth at all positions so I can afford it.
Holt, Larry Johnson and Vilma for Larry Fitzgerald and Derrick Johnson (IDP obviously)
I still have Westbrook/Buckhalter, Ronnie Brown, Thomas Jones. Now my WR's will be Fitz, TO, Roddy White, Witten, Desean Jackson, Shockey
bye bye holt
Holt, Larry Johnson and Vilma for Larry Fitzgerald and Derrick Johnson (IDP obviously)
I still have Westbrook/Buckhalter, Ronnie Brown, Thomas Jones. Now my WR's will be Fitz, TO, Roddy White, Witten, Desean Jackson, Shockey
bye bye holt
NeverEnough
Footballguy
No one picked him off the ww this week in my keeper. I traded him for R. Moss earlier this season so I'm tempted to pick him up & drop Moore & Bradshaw (need cap room)
Who do you guys like more, Moore or Holt going forward?
Who do you guys like more, Moore or Holt going forward?
Last edited by a moderator:
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Even when Colston comes back?
SleeperPix
Footballguy
xenith
Footballguy
I say Moore considering your cap league, otherwise I'd rather have Holt for upside.
