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** Houston at Dallas ** (-17.5, 44) (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Another massive point spread on an inter-conference game between 2 teams that never really see each other much in the regular season
Take the points has been the over riding theme and theory on these Double Digit point spreads, this one is closer to 20 than 10

Go!
 
This one feels like Alabama versus The Little Sisters of the Poor. But maybe The Sisters score late against a team that may lose interest in a route,so...

Dallas- 38
Houston- 21
 
Dallas 27
Houston 10

I'll take the 17.5 and hope the I-C Massive Dog Rule holds up, it's been working good for the last 15-20 years. I discovered it on an old defunct website that was known as "silly sports" and was pimped a lot by a local sportscaster in Tampa Bay. Wanna take a guess @Capella who it might be?

I used to love Friday afternoons with Chris down in Ybor with the sliders pulled back and the street was wide open as he was doing his afternoon broadcast about 25 years ago, sometimes it was just me, him and some cold beer as we talked a lot of NFL, he was never shy about his gambling habits.

Go Texans Go!
 
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Dallas 27
Houston 10

I'll take the 17.5 and hope the I-C Massive Dog Rule holds up, it's been working good for the last 15-20 years. I discovered it on an old defunct website that was known as "silly sports" and was pimped a lot by a local sportscaster in Tampa Bay. Wanna take a guess @Capella who it might be?

I used to love Friday afternoons with Chris down in Ybor with the sliders pulled back and the street was wide open as he was doing his afternoon broadcast about 25 years ago, sometimes it would just me, him and some cold beer as we talked a lot of NFL, he was never shy about his gambling habits.

Go Texans Go!
Chris Thomas was the absolute best
 
The I-C Dog Rule has to be close to 75-80%, it's not fool proof but it happens a lot.
I do feel like Dallas should totally smoke the Texans but even at something like 34-10 in the 4th, that backdoor is wide open to cover the spread.
What if Houston were to somehow come out and actually put up a fight and take the lead temporairly early in the football game?
There's a reason why it's difficult to take the underdog in these games.
 
Wk 4
NE +9.5 vs GB, Pats lost by 3

Wk 6
TB -9.5 vs PIT, Steelers win the game straight up 20-18

Wk 7
CHI +8.5 vs N, Bears Blowout 33-14

Wk 8
Philly blows out and cover vs the Steelers -11.5
Packers were +10.5 vs Buffalo and lose 27-17 and still cover

4-1, just a few weeks I scrambled to pull up before today's game
 
Green was such an awful pick for the Texans. As I said over and over again in the Texans’ thread, this was the year to draft weapons. Dotson was there, Burks was there, and if they’d have considered a weapon earlier they could have traded back and likely grabbed Wilson or Olave.
 
Week 9
PHI -14 vs HOU, 29-17 and the Texans beat the spread

Week 11
CAR +12.5 vs BAL, Ravens win 13-3 and the Panthers beat the spread

Am I at 6-1 so far as I am looking this stuff up? Incredible numbers so far
 
Week 12
Bills -9.5 vs Lions, Lions lose 28-25 in OT and beats the spread

Rams vs Chiefs -15.5, Chiefs do cover this one 26-10, Half a point

Week 13
Colts vs Cowboys -11, Dallas blows them out in the 4th Q

7-3 on the season entering Week 14 in '22
70% is pretty darn good, we'll see if this holds up
 
The I-C Dog Rule has to be close to 75-80%, it's not fool proof but it happens a lot.
I do feel like Dallas should totally smoke the Texans but even at something like 34-10 in the 4th, that backdoor is wide open to cover the spread.
What if Houston were to somehow come out and actually put up a fight and take the lead temporairly early in the football game?
There's a reason why it's difficult to take the underdog in these games.
:blackdot:

Still early
Cowboys destroyed the Colts late last week
 
Apparently there was some confusion and the Cowboys rested their starters the first half instead of the second half like everyone was predicting.
 
Green was such an awful pick for the Texans. As I said over and over again in the Texans’ thread, this was the year to draft weapons. Dotson was there, Burks was there, and if they’d have considered a weapon earlier they could have traded back and likely grabbed Wilson or Olave.

The Stingley pick isn't looking so hot either. Beginning to think Caserio isn't the answer to their draft woes. This whole Patriots South experiment set this team back a good decade.
 
So the choices are...

-Kick a FG and go up 26-20 over Dallas with about 3:20 left, Houston opts not to do that

Instead they decide to try and go for it on 4th and Goal from about the 2 yd line
And they end up looking like a temp worker on their 1st Day
What a horrible looking 4th and goal call
 
So the choices are...

-Kick a FG and go up 26-20 over Dallas with about 3:20 left, Houston opts not to do that

Instead they decide to try and go for it on 4th and Goal from about the 2 yd line
And they end up looking like a temp worker on their 1st Day
What a horrible looking 4th and goal call
IDK it feels like the right decision IMO.

A Dallas TD wins for them either way so their downside is the Cowboys have 60 or whatever yards to kick the FG and go to OT where they still have an opportunity to win. In a lost season does it kill the Texans if they lose in OT?

The TD makes it a 2 score game and a likely win. There is no downside to going for it on a 1 & whatever team.
 
guess it was too much to hope for. Not over but doesn't seem likely Houston pulls off the upset now
 
So the choices are...

-Kick a FG and go up 26-20 over Dallas with about 3:20 left, Houston opts not to do that

Instead they decide to try and go for it on 4th and Goal from about the 2 yd line
And they end up looking like a temp worker on their 1st Day
What a horrible looking 4th and goal call
IDK it feels like the right decision IMO.

A Dallas TD wins for them either way so their downside is the Cowboys have 60 or whatever yards to kick the FG and go to OT where they still have an opportunity to win. In a lost season does it kill the Texans if they lose in OT?

The TD makes it a 2 score game and a likely win. There is no downside to going for it on a 1 & whatever team.
I agree. I don't see a difference between being up three but opps buried at the 2 or being up 6 kicking off. Statistically your odds of winning are only a few points higher being up 6...but WAAAAAY higher if you convert and go up 10
 
We always play Dallas tougher than folks realize, like college rivals no matter if one is having a down year. Can’t overcome boneheadedness from our coaches too, though.
 
Week 12
Bills -9.5 vs Lions, Lions lose 28-25 in OT and beats the spread

Rams vs Chiefs -15.5, Chiefs do cover this one 26-10, Half a point

Week 13
Colts vs Cowboys -11, Dallas blows them out in the 4th Q

7-3 on the season entering Week 14 in '22
70% is pretty darn good, we'll see if this holds up
And looks like a shoe in to increase to 8-3 on the season
72.5% on the season, that's pretty strong
 

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