How did Alfred Morris fool everyone? He is bigtime. (1 Viewer)

[southeastjerome]

In 2012, Pro Football Focus credited only Adrian Peterson (1,369) and Doug Martin (1,005) with more yards after contact than Morris (1,001). Marshawn Lynch (872) and Arian Foster (766) were a distant fourth and fifth, respectively.

 

[pantherclub]

Kid is the real deal, but my gut says deep down Shanny goes back to his old tricks

 

[Ghost Rider]

Shanny's old trick, when he has a stud RB, is riding him hard and long. Amazing that a lot of people have forgotten that.

Also, people can blather on about the system all they want, but if it is just the system, then why is Morris only the 2nd RB in Shanahan's nearly 20 years of head coaching to rush for 1,600+ yards?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Kid is the real deal, but my gut says deep down Shanny goes back to his old tricks

There are no "old tricks". When he's had a stud, he's ridden him into the ground.

 

[Run It Up]

Shanny's old trick, when he has a stud RB, is riding him hard and long. Amazing that a lot of people have forgotten that.

Also, people can blather on about the system all they want, but if it is just the system, then why is Morris only the 2nd RB in Shanahan's nearly 20 years of head coaching to rush for 1,600+ yards?

RG3 is that good. The argument really is horrid.

 

[Buffaloes]

no one knows how to find fits at RB better than Shanny.

and Bobby Turner

 

[floods]

Sold him for Jordy and Garçon in the offseason. Not sure if id buy him back at that price, but i do think hes a low/mid level RB in ppr. Only downside is that hes a two-down back and gets few rec at this point... If he becomes a three-down back he could be a top 5 dynasty RB quickly.

 

[Ted Mullins]

How about it's the ideal system for his skillset? He hits the hole hard like he's supposed to and he's extremely tough to bring down.

This sums up my perception. In terms of just talent/skillset with no consideration for what system he is in, I would say he is substantially better than where his NFL draft position would indicate, but probably not the elite runner his stats last year would imply. As Sigmund said, "trust your eyes" - he does a lot of things well that don't show up in combine numbers.

As mentioned already, Shanny has produced elite seasons out of obscure runners even before using the read option. Not to slight Morris, but imo you can't look at his production last season and ignore the system.

 

[cstu]

Kid is the real deal, but my gut says deep down Shanny goes back to his old tricks

There are no "old tricks". When he's had a stud, he's ridden him into the ground.

Exactly. He'll be ridden as long as he lasts.

 

[Touchdown There]

Does it really matter why he was successful. My question would be can he repeat it? All the factors that people use against his great season are still there again this year so I would think that actually no matter the why it looks possible for him to be close to what he did.

I think Helu will get more of the carries and that defenses will be better against the read option so he might regress some.

Unless you're Barry Sanders all good runners need help to be successful.

All the same factors? Like Helu having achilles tendonitis in both legs plus a toe injury?

Helu hasn't proven to be able to stay healthy with a full workload. I think he will be a pretty decent option in ppr leagues though.

Is Helu hurt right now?

 

[Papa Georgio]

Does it really matter why he was successful. My question would be can he repeat it? All the factors that people use against his great season are still there again this year so I would think that actually no matter the why it looks possible for him to be close to what he did.

I think Helu will get more of the carries and that defenses will be better against the read option so he might regress some.

Unless you're Barry Sanders all good runners need help to be successful.

All the same factors? Like Helu having achilles tendonitis in both legs plus a toe injury?

Helu hasn't proven to be able to stay healthy with a full workload. I think he will be a pretty decent option in ppr leagues though.

Is Helu hurt right now?

It seems you are just trying to argue. I said Alf would give up carries to Helu and that defenses would adjust to read option so those 2 things are different from last year, but Morris is not going to drop off the planet based on those 2 factors. To me it seems like I was somewhat agreeing with you that a healthy Helu would eat into his carries.

Yes, Helu is healthy right now and is competing for RB#2 according to all reports. My point is that in 2 seasons he has been hurt in both.

 

[bagger]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

yes, why did nobody start a thread like this one: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650829&hl=bagger&page=1

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Huh. Thought I read somewhere in the Shark Pool that Alfred Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry out of a standard offensive set, and ~6 yards per carry when running read-option type sets. I have no link to back this up; I didn't bookmark the thread. Hard to imagine a stat like that would pop into my head magically, but anything is possible.

Am I making this up, or does it sound remotely familiar to anyone else?

 

[Run It Up]

Huh. Thought I read somewhere in the Shark Pool that Alfred Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry out of a standard offensive set, and ~6 yards per carry when running read-option type sets. I have no link to back this up; I didn't bookmark the thread. Hard to imagine a stat like that would pop into my head magically, but anything is possible.

Am I making this up, or does it sound remotely familiar to anyone else?

Does it matter in the slightest?

 

[Todd Andrews]

Huh. Thought I read somewhere in the Shark Pool that Alfred Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry out of a standard offensive set, and ~6 yards per carry when running read-option type sets. I have no link to back this up; I didn't bookmark the thread. Hard to imagine a stat like that would pop into my head magically, but anything is possible.

Am I making this up, or does it sound remotely familiar to anyone else?

Um, not even remotely close to factual. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry overall, and 4.6 yards per carry on non read option runs, and he actually averaged less than four read option runs per game. For all of you saying it was the system, how did the system get this rookie over 1000 yards AFTER CONTACT and 57 forced missed tackles?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Huh. Thought I read somewhere in the Shark Pool that Alfred Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry out of a standard offensive set, and ~6 yards per carry when running read-option type sets. I have no link to back this up; I didn't bookmark the thread. Hard to imagine a stat like that would pop into my head magically, but anything is possible.

Am I making this up, or does it sound remotely familiar to anyone else?

Um, not even remotely close to factual. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry overall, and 4.6 yards per carry on non read option runs, and he actually averaged less than four read option runs per game. For all of you saying it was the system, how did the system get this rookie over 1000 yards AFTER CONTACT and 57 forced missed tackles?

Thanks Todd. As noted, I wasn't trying to mislead anyone. It was something I read in a FBG thread, but obviously never bothered trying to validate or invalidate.

Appreciate you posting the facts.

 

[BWill]

I made a side bet this year that Trent Richardson will outscore Alfred Morris in Fantasy Football - 6 pt. TD.. (.25 PPR Catch)

 

[Xue]

You know who was Alfred Morris before Alfred Morris? Phillip Tanner. It's unfortunate he can't stay healthy.

 

[Run It Up]

I made a side bet this year that Trent Richardson will outscore Alfred Morris in Fantasy Football - 6 pt. TD.. (.25 PPR Catch)

Like the bet, hate the post.

 

[kinghill]

I watched Alfred Morris in person at a handful of FAU games where he regularly muscled a 100-200 yards, and I glossed over him during my 2012 FF drafts. You know why? The Redskin RB situation was muddy and their coach is Mike Shanahan.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

its called shananigans and when owning Morris you'll be dealing with it all the time.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

its called shananigans and when owning Morris you'll be dealing with it all the time.

Not so far. There's a pervasive, serious misunderstanding of Shanahan in fantasy circles.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

its called shananigans and when owning Morris you'll be dealing with it all the time.

Not so far. There's a pervasive, serious misunderstanding of Shanahan in fantasy circles.

The Washington Times notes projected third-down back Roy Helu's "speed and elusiveness on the second level sets him apart" from Alfred Morris.
Helu offers considerably more straight-line speed and arguably just as much or more second-level wiggle than Washington's starter. Helu is vying to be the Skins' third-down back two seasons after racking up 49 receptions and rushing for 100 yards in three straight games late in his rookie year. Helu is the early favorite for Morris "handcuff" duties. He's worth a late-round fantasy pick.

and if your not a believer in Helu you'll have to deal with every 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th round and or undrafted RB Washington signs that "Shannan Loves".

I like Morris, I like the story... hard working, humble, no one gave him a chance; I even started my own thread on the very same thing but after reading the responses from SP members, doing a little reading and thinking about it I realized that Morris isn't worth it

 

[Slider]

Helu had double achilles issues. No other reason.

No. Alfred is a better all-around RB than Helu, and the vast majority of Skins fans who have seen all of their touches would tell you that. There's an important role on this team for Helu if he can stay healthy, but it's not Morris' spot.

The question was how. Morris would have been fantasy irrelevant if Helu were healthy last year. Truthiness.

No way. Morris, Royster and Helu were all being reluctantly rostered only because of Shanahan. All had a 33.3% chance to start and you had to trust your eyes and grab one.

 

[Shutout]

Kid is the real deal, but my gut says deep down Shanny goes back to his old tricks

There are no "old tricks". When he's had a stud, he's ridden him into the ground.

Which usually takes about 3 seasons, unfortunately.

I think both sides of this argument has merit. This was, in many ways, a perfect storm. The team, as a whole, would never have produced as they did without the threat of RG III. That opens a lot of doors for Morris. He also had his starting opportunity paved for him as no one else was really healthy enough to be the guy and the limited what we normally see from Shanahan and his rotations. In some ways, he was forced to ride the only horse he had.

With that being said, take nothing away; Morris was the guy and is the guy...until Shanahan decides on another guy..I think the reports are that Helu, if healthy will be the compliment and from what I have read, he will probably command the 3rd down stuff, despite the talks of "Morris being used more in passing game". I have nothing to back that up other than gut feeling of watching last year and thinking, with a workload as he had, it is probably not in the best interest to also play him in an are where he doesn't really shine. But I think teams have to say that just so that they keep opponents from dialing in on them, knowing that when he is out, its likely pass.

The monkey wrench in the whole Morris/Helu committee, though, might be this Chris Thompson. I have this ticking noise in the back of my head that recalls all the local in DC writing non-stop about how much Shanahan loved this guy leading up to the draft and sometimes, if a door opens and the darling you were smitten with is available, a coach might be inclined to shoe horn them in there. If nothing else, it would seem to fit the pattern of Shanahan stroking his own ego by inserting a nobody RB in there that was hand picked and rolling with it. Of course, he already has that in Morris so I guess it would take some attrition to get to that point.

So, Morris is the guy until he's no longer the guy and with Shanahan, who knows when that will be. You need the Luck of the Gambler and a cast iron stomach to pin your hopes on this one but obviously the reward can be great.

 

[Touchdown There]

Helu had double achilles issues. No other reason.

No. Alfred is a better all-around RB than Helu, and the vast majority of Skins fans who have seen all of their touches would tell you that. There's an important role on this team for Helu if he can stay healthy, but it's not Morris' spot.

The question was how. Morris would have been fantasy irrelevant if Helu were healthy last year. Truthiness.

No way. Morris, Royster and Helu were all being reluctantly rostered only because of Shanahan. All had a 33.3% chance to start and you had to trust your eyes and grab one.

Or you can pick the first guy on the depth chart that was not injured. That was Morris.

 

[LawFitz]

You take Morris as a safe low-end RB1 or high-end RB2. He will almost certainly be that PPG when healthy. If his health fails all bets are off with Shanny. There's your Shanahanigan risk. It's not as severe as some might think, but it does lurk beneath.

If they throw him the ball, you end up with a top 5 RB PPG. Good luck with the part about them throwing him the ball though. That part is Michael Turner redux.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

If they throw him the ball, you end up with a top 5 RB PPG. Good luck with the part about them throwing him the ball though. That part is Michael Turner redux.

Where are you getting this? You're literally just making it up. He can catch, he graded out really well in pass protection, and Shanahan has specifically said they want to work him into the passing game.

 

[humpback]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

its called shananigans and when owning Morris you'll be dealing with it all the time.

Not so far. There's a pervasive, serious misunderstanding of Shanahan in fantasy circles.

It's really amazing. People were making the same terrible argument with Kubiak/Foster as well.

 

[Apple Jack]

Great line? Um, no. Anybody else would have been just as successful? Um, no.

There is a whole lot of hot air in this thread.

 

[LawFitz]

If they throw him the ball, you end up with a top 5 RB PPG. Good luck with the part about them throwing him the ball though. That part is Michael Turner redux.

Where are you getting this? You're literally just making it up. He can catch, he graded out really well in pass protection, and Shanahan has specifically said they want to work him into the passing game.

Fair enough. I'll believe it when I see it on the field. His outstanding pass blocking does portend well. If he gets 40 receptions he'll be a top 5 RB PPG.

 

[FlapJacks]

It's the system and not the back.

60/40 in your favor. He has a great line and a coach that's has a proven RB system and surely wants to satisfy his NFL sized ego by finding another late round gem at RB. But it takes a special player, not necessarily a special talent physically, to seize that opportunity to the extent he did as a rookie.

The other day I made some fantastic spaghetti sauce. It was perfect. Was it the sauce, the tomatoes, the basil, the garlic, the chef? I couldn't begin to assign percentages...sometimes all of the ingredienrs come together to form the perfect mix.

 

[Xue]

The guys who say "it's the system", you do know that Jamaal Charles played/plays in a ZBS right? CJ Spiller also ran in a ZBS last season. The "Peyton Manning Offense" also runs a ZBS. Edgerrin James anyone?

 

[ImmeJor]

Just trying to figure out how nobody saw what Morris was capable of. Wasn't he a late round draft pick and longshot to make the team? I don't follow the Redskins so can someone that watched him play try to answer? Is he especially fast? Is he elusive? Good vision? Tough to bring down? It reminds me of how Terrell Davis came in under the radar.

Is there another Morris in this year's draft? I find it fascinating.

I few people were on him early on before the season last year - but was hard to believe with that revolving door of Skins RB's. He appears to have a strangle hold on it now!

 

[JustinHawkins]

He fell to me at 2.9 in a MFL redraft league. I almost shat eggrolls I was so pleasantly surprised!!!

 

[Clifford]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

 

[Touchdown There]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

 

[Touchdown There]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

My assumption was that the fantasy community likes a higher number of fantasy points.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

My assumption was that the fantasy community likes a higher number of fantasy points.

Don't be a jackass. Why do you think Wilson is going to outscore Morris in 2013?

 

[Run It Up]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

My assumption was that the fantasy community likes a higher number of fantasy points.

Don't be a jackass. Why do you think Wilson is going to outscore Morris in 2013?

This seriously needs an answer.

 

[Touchdown There]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

My assumption was that the fantasy community likes a higher number of fantasy points.

Don't be a jackass. Why do you think Wilson is going to outscore Morris in 2013?

This seriously needs an answer.

I am not going to hammer on Alf but feel confident his numbers in a PPR format will go down.

 

[Buffaloes]

The fantasy community is just being plain stupid about this guy. I had him on all my teams last year. If you miss on him again, you should find a new hobby. 2.9 is ridiculous value. I bet David Wilson was taken ahead of him.

That would be the correct move.

Why?

My assumption was that the fantasy community likes a higher number of fantasy points.

Don't be a jackass. Why do you think Wilson is going to outscore Morris in 2013?

This seriously needs an answer.

I am not going to hammer on Alf but feel confident his numbers in a PPR format will go down.

just spitballing? or is there a reason behind this?

 

[Nucker101]

It's the system and not the back.

I agree.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

It's the system and not the back.

I agree.

sAny time you find yourself agreeing with ITS, you should maybe give the whole thing a once-over just to be sure.