How do we value Ocho Cinco after Coles signing? (2 Viewers)

[biggamer3]

He was looking like a WR 10-15 as the go to guy

Does he drop far now with Coles getting involved?

 

[David Yudkin]

Ocho did fine with Housh on the same field for a few years. The big issue for Johnson is the status of Palmer. IMO, Coles addition really won't impact COC's numbers much.

 

[mggoilers]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.

He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.

He is going to be a great value in 2009.

 

[az_prof]

Ocho did fine with Housh on the same field for a few years. The big issue for Johnson is the status of Palmer. IMO, Coles addition really won't impact COC's numbers much.

I agree with this.

 

[zdaddy]

Housh > Coles

Housh = threat

Coles = nice compliment

CJ's value increases here.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I don't have the high expectations of others.

I view Cinco as a very inconsistent FF option,

top 10 is a big reach, imo.

Let's look a his last 2 seasons fantasywise.

2007 - with Carson Palmer

2008 - without Carson Palmer

2007 - after coming out like a house on fire putting up 16, 38 and 19 FF points,

he only put up double digit FF points in 3 of his final 13 games. His final numbers

looked solid : 93 Rec / 1440 YDs / 8 TDs, but he was the model of inconsistency.

2008 - two games all season with double digit FF points. 53 Rec / 540 YDs / 4 TDs.

Based on the past 2 seasons I would not get too excited about this guy.

I don't view a player who puts up 19-25 FF points one week then disappears

for a month or longer as a viable FF option.

Will he garner more attention from defensive secondaries with Coles lined up

on the other side rather than TJ ? I really don't see a huge difference as to

how opposing teams will game plan for him, and I don't see a whole lot of

FF improvement for Cinco in 2009.

.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Game by game, standard scoring no PPR.

2008 2, 4, 3, 9, 4, 6, 11, 4, 16, -, 3, -, 5, 8, 3, -, -

2007 16, 38, 19, 5, -, 8, 12, 5, 5, 7, 7, 33, 9, 6, 8, 6, 26

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't have the high expectations of others.I view Cinco as a very inconsistent FF option,top 10 is a big reach, imo.Let's look a his last 2 seasons fantasywise.2007 - with Carson Palmer2008 - without Carson Palmer2007 - after coming out like a house on fire putting up 16, 38 and 19 FF points,he only put up double digit FF points in 3 of his final 13 games. His final numberslooked solid : 93 Rec / 1440 YDs / 8 TDs, but he was the model of inconsistency.2008 - two games all season with double digit FF points. 53 Rec / 540 YDs / 4 TDs.Based on the past 2 seasons I would not get too excited about this guy.I don't view a player who puts up 19-25 FF points one week then disappearsfor a month or longer as a viable FF option.Will he garner more attention from defensive secondaries with Coles lined upon the other side rather than TJ ? I really don't see a huge difference as to how opposing teams will game plan for him, and I don't see a whole lot of FF improvement for Cinco in 2009..

From 2003 - 2007, Johnson ranked 3,9,4,4,6. Last year, he and his starting QB were both hurt. Johnson missed 3 games altogether and the rest of the time was playing with one good shoulder. Do you really think at 31 he's fallen so far so fast that he won't rank in the Top 50?I'm not guaranteeing that he's a lock for the Top 10, but I think he's a decent candidate that will come at a discount next season.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I don't have the high expectations of others.I view Cinco as a very inconsistent FF option,top 10 is a big reach, imo.Let's look a his last 2 seasons fantasywise.2007 - with Carson Palmer2008 - without Carson Palmer2007 - after coming out like a house on fire putting up 16, 38 and 19 FF points,he only put up double digit FF points in 3 of his final 13 games. His final numberslooked solid : 93 Rec / 1440 YDs / 8 TDs, but he was the model of inconsistency.2008 - two games all season with double digit FF points. 53 Rec / 540 YDs / 4 TDs.Based on the past 2 seasons I would not get too excited about this guy.I don't view a player who puts up 19-25 FF points one week then disappearsfor a month or longer as a viable FF option.Will he garner more attention from defensive secondaries with Coles lined upon the other side rather than TJ ? I really don't see a huge difference as to how opposing teams will game plan for him, and I don't see a whole lot of FF improvement for Cinco in 2009..

From 2003 - 2007, Johnson ranked 3,9,4,4,6. Last year, he and his starting QB were both hurt. Johnson missed 3 games altogether and the rest of the time was playing with one good shoulder. Do you really think at 31 he's fallen so far so fast that he won't rank in the Top 50?I'm not guaranteeing that he's a lock for the Top 10, but I think he's a decent candidate that will come at a discount next season.

Heck yea he'll be top 50.My point with the numbers is to show his lack of consistency,and I believe consistency across the board is what wins FF championships.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

If Coles is a more of a complement than a threat, does that make CJ more consistent? I can easily see CJ being a Top 10 WR, but if he's like the CJ of years' past he'll put up half of his season numbers in 2 games.

 

[J-Rock]

I don't think it matters who you line up opposite 85. Chad is one of the most dominant WRs in the league when he wants to be. I think the issue with 85 these past 2 seasons is that he is not happy and unmotivated. He has no swagger. He's not working his ### of to be the best player on the field, he's going through the motions. He's not happy with his situation in Cincy and it's affecting his play. Until he comes to grips with the fact that his is a Bengal and embraces it he will continue to be inconsistent and put up below average numbers.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Coles doesn't change my evaluation for Chad at this point, 'cos Coles is no longer a difference maker. He's an okay 2nd receiver.

WRs are going to come off the board fast in this year's FF drafts, even non-PPR. Or at least the 1st tier ones will. Chad has to be in the 2nd tier right now - how soon are you willing to take him? He may slide, so if you like him, it might be a great year for you to go RB/RB while others kill each other for WRs in the first few rounds.

 

[Sweet Love]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.He is going to be a great value in 2009.

He'll be a good value, but more as someone taken as a WR3 (i.e. WR 25-36) that turns into WR 20...he won't be THAT good...just no way regardless of Palmer's status.

 

[foxco]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.He is going to be a great value in 2009.

He'll be a good value, but more as someone taken as a WR3 (i.e. WR 25-36) that turns into WR 20...he won't be THAT good...just no way regardless of Palmer's status.

Just curious, but why would you say his upside is WR 20? He's been top 10 several times, and if he and Palmer are healthy what will knock him down so many spots?

 

[Sweet Love]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.He is going to be a great value in 2009.

He'll be a good value, but more as someone taken as a WR3 (i.e. WR 25-36) that turns into WR 20...he won't be THAT good...just no way regardless of Palmer's status.

Just curious, but why would you say his upside is WR 20? He's been top 10 several times, and if he and Palmer are healthy what will knock him down so many spots?

Honestly...it is a hunch. Why did Pickens and Herman Moore peter out by age 30 when Rod Smith and Jerry Rice went on to be productive in their mid 30s?? Work ethic? I would put CJ in with the former group there (is he some crazed workout warrior...I have not heard so)...Injuries? Neither Moore or Pickens had major injuries (ala Curtis Martin or Al Toon) that forced them to retire...they just broke down and I think CJ is breaking down. Now that process can appear to be stalled when considering surrounding talent, but who is going to draw attention away from CJ? Their stellar RB? Their stellar TE? Coles will make a living on 80 catches 900 yards and 4-5 TDs...God knows what CJ will walk away with. I think Top 20 is pretty fair. Not to mention they have Caldwell, Simpson and Henry chomping at the bit if either Coles or CJ show the slightest sign of getting long in the tooth.

 

[mggoilers]

Top 10 Fantasy WR in 2008

70-90 catches

around 1000 yards

7-11 TDs

That is T.O. Territory, V-Jax, Santana Moss, Bowe, Hines Ward...all depends on settings.

Ocho is definitely capable of those numbers with Carson Palmer.

 

[foxco]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.He is going to be a great value in 2009.

He'll be a good value, but more as someone taken as a WR3 (i.e. WR 25-36) that turns into WR 20...he won't be THAT good...just no way regardless of Palmer's status.

Just curious, but why would you say his upside is WR 20? He's been top 10 several times, and if he and Palmer are healthy what will knock him down so many spots?

Honestly...it is a hunch. Why did Pickens and Herman Moore peter out by age 30 when Rod Smith and Jerry Rice went on to be productive in their mid 30s?? Work ethic? I would put CJ in with the former group there (is he some crazed workout warrior...I have not heard so)...Injuries? Neither Moore or Pickens had major injuries (ala Curtis Martin or Al Toon) that forced them to retire...they just broke down and I think CJ is breaking down. Now that process can appear to be stalled when considering surrounding talent, but who is going to draw attention away from CJ? Their stellar RB? Their stellar TE? Coles will make a living on 80 catches 900 yards and 4-5 TDs...God knows what CJ will walk away with. I think Top 20 is pretty fair. Not to mention they have Caldwell, Simpson and Henry chomping at the bit if either Coles or CJ show the slightest sign of getting long in the tooth.

Fair enough. I'll respectfully disagree but you put forth a good argument, though I'm not sure Caldwell/Simpson/Henry have proved they're ready to step into a starting role yet.

 

[Chachi]

Housh > ColesHoush = threatColes = nice complimentCJ's value increases here.

Good assessment. One more factor is Palmer and TJ were buddies, I see more balls going 85's way with Coles than with TJ.

 

[NFL-ons]

IMO the guy to watch out for is henry.

Lee already has Henry taking a positive approach to the offseason. The receiver is currently working out in California with quarterback Carson Palmer and receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and will be until March 13. Keep in mind that Henry never worked out with any of his Bengal teammates during the course of the offseason until now.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/s..._new_agent.html

Henry is a talented dude and he has had a decent repore with carson in the past. Seeing them work out together in the off season reminds me a little of Peyton and harrison in their hey day.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

everyone is also assuming that Palmer comes back the to be the same QB he was a few years ago. before we get to Ocho returning or not to elite status it first depends on Palmer. Delhomme put up 'OK' numbers, its really hard to figure if he completely recovered b/c he wasn't that good beforehand. Carson has a good feel for the game but a big part of his game was his great arm strength, nobody recovers from injuries like that 100%.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If Palmer is healthy, Ocho is back in the top 10.He should be healthy after ankle surgeries, and a cleaned up shoulder.He is going to be a great value in 2009.

He'll be a good value, but more as someone taken as a WR3 (i.e. WR 25-36) that turns into WR 20...he won't be THAT good...just no way regardless of Palmer's status.

Just curious, but why would you say his upside is WR 20? He's been top 10 several times, and if he and Palmer are healthy what will knock him down so many spots?

Honestly...it is a hunch. Why did Pickens and Herman Moore peter out by age 30 when Rod Smith and Jerry Rice went on to be productive in their mid 30s?? Work ethic? I would put CJ in with the former group there (is he some crazed workout warrior...I have not heard so)...Injuries? Neither Moore or Pickens had major injuries (ala Curtis Martin or Al Toon) that forced them to retire...they just broke down and I think CJ is breaking down. Now that process can appear to be stalled when considering surrounding talent, but who is going to draw attention away from CJ? Their stellar RB? Their stellar TE? Coles will make a living on 80 catches 900 yards and 4-5 TDs...God knows what CJ will walk away with. I think Top 20 is pretty fair. Not to mention they have Caldwell, Simpson and Henry chomping at the bit if either Coles or CJ show the slightest sign of getting long in the tooth.

Pickens was nowhere near the receiver Johnson has been. He had 3 good years. Moore's career ended with injuries. He didn't peter out. He completely fell apart due to injury.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Ocho did fine with Housh on the same field for a few years. The big issue for Johnson is the status of Palmer. IMO, Coles addition really won't impact COC's numbers much.

Agree, but the other issue is the line. Even when Palmer was playing, the line didn't allow enough time for Johnson to run his routes. Palmer never had a chance to throw to Johnson. Only 22 targets during those 4 games that Palmer played.

 

[Tick]

Heck yea he'll be top 50.My point with the numbers is to show his lack of consistency,and I believe consistency across the board is what wins FF championships.

Someone (Drinen?) did a study that showed that game-to-game inconsistency doesn't last. The sample size is so small that it's not useful information.