How do you determine pick value? (1 Viewer)

[3quinox]

I'm sure it varies depending on the rules, say a keeper league, dynasty etc... I do think, however, the basic fundamentals apply universally. Let's take a classic example of trading an elite player for and good player and a pick. If you went to a trade evaluater you would be told that the player giving up the elite talent is losing out by a massive margin, it doesn't however calculate for picks. For example Arian Foster for Marshawn lynch straight up would be seen as crazy, but what if you the team offering lynch threw in picks that made the deal even? What exactly are the values of picks?

 

[GregR]

The best thing you can do when evaluating a trade... and the first thing everyone should try to do before even thinking of using any pick value calculator... is try to figure out what your full team is likely to be if you trade and also if you don't trade, and then use your projections to see which is better.

You want to plug in the name of the player you think you're most likely to take with the pick. However, you need to know more of your team's roster than that. For example, if you trade Foster for Lynch and a pick you'll use to take Jennings, then some other pick you'd have used on a WR will probably be used to take an earlier QB or TE or the like. So you want to capture all the change in your team that result from the trade, not just limit it to the players who changed sides.

Don't use a pick value calculator that approximates value and is ignorant about the effect on the rest of your team when you can figure out the complete answer with just a little thinking.

Ok, so that is the best way. But maybe the pick is in a future year where you can't fill in names yet, so the input of such a tool is more valuable and needed. You can still use it in your situation.

A simple thing to do would be put your league's setup into Draft Dominator and see where the players in the trade should be taken and convert names to draft picks. So you might have Foster as 1.1, Lynch as 2.3. Then you have at least converted all of the moving pieces into picks that can be entered in the system.

It's not as good as the first thing I said. It doesn't account for the rest of the impact on your team of those changes. It also doesn't do anything to account for the fact you are spanning years and whether Foster and Lynch will retain value equally (assuming you're talking keeper league at least). But it does give you a starting point anyway.

Hope that helps.

 

[3quinox]

The best thing you can do when evaluating a trade... and the first thing everyone should try to do before even thinking of using any pick value calculator... is try to figure out what your full team is likely to be if you trade and also if you don't trade, and then use your projections to see which is better.You want to plug in the name of the player you think you're most likely to take with the pick. However, you need to know more of your team's roster than that. For example, if you trade Foster for Lynch and a pick you'll use to take Jennings, then some other pick you'd have used on a WR will probably be used to take an earlier QB or TE or the like. So you want to capture all the change in your team that result from the trade, not just limit it to the players who changed sides. Don't use a pick value calculator that approximates value and is ignorant about the effect on the rest of your team when you can figure out the complete answer with just a little thinking.Ok, so that is the best way. But maybe the pick is in a future year where you can't fill in names yet, so the input of such a tool is more valuable and needed. You can still use it in your situation.A simple thing to do would be put your league's setup into Draft Dominator and see where the players in the trade should be taken and convert names to draft picks. So you might have Foster as 1.1, Lynch as 2.3. Then you have at least converted all of the moving pieces into picks that can be entered in the system.It's not as good as the first thing I said. It doesn't account for the rest of the impact on your team of those changes. It also doesn't do anything to account for the fact you are spanning years and whether Foster and Lynch will retain value equally (assuming you're talking keeper league at least). But it does give you a starting point anyway.Hope that helps.

That helps alot. Thanks for the input

 

[Biabreakable]

Greg covered this really well.

I just wanted to add that if your in a redraft where you can trade picks the best way to figure out each picks value is based off of your VBD numbers and expected ADP. Compare the players your targeting at that draft pick with the players at the pick or player your giving up for the picks.