how do you determine the value of rookie draft picks? (1 Viewer)

[Scrubby Dubs]

I was reading this thread (What Dynasty or Keeper League Trades have you done?), and I thought that some of the trades were pretty good. But for the most part, I had a hard time deciding which side got the better deal when there were rookie draft picks involved.

Using the FBG rookie/dynasty expert rankings, you can argue that you should not trade the 1.1 for anything worse than the 7th-best dynasty player. Similarly, 1.2 and 1.3 should only be traded for players like A.Boldin or L.Evans or better. But, how do you determine the values of late-1st rounders, 2nd rounders, etc.?

TIA

 

[Scrubby Dubs]

Also, any thoughts on future-year picks? Do you trade for them or trade them away?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Without looking at your examples too closely, I'll just say that, in my experience, people tend to value rookie picks too much. You have to remember that rookies have proven nothing, and even the most "sure-fire" rooks can bust on occasion.

I don't know if that helps, but just an observation of mine. Don't be affraid to win now at the expense of 1 or 2 years in the future. Too many teams are perrenially 'good', but never great.

 

[datonn]

Other than MAYBE the first 3-4 picks in most rookie drafts, here's the best way to value rookie picks:

Take the current "hyped" value of picks in your league, then divide it by two. Then, divide it in half again. What remains is how you should value rookie picks in relation to young-but-proven vets.

Seriously. I play in one league where a guy two years ago actually dealt WR Steve Smith, Panthers for the 1.07 overall pick, OUTRIGHT! He ended up drafting Mike Williams. So instead of having one of the top 2-3 WRs in the game, he got a guy who couldn't lay off the cheeseburgers and is currently battling for a roster spot in Oakland.

Guys get CRAZY about the rookies this time of year! If you can, snatch-up as many vets for rookie picks as you can....as probably 8 times out of 10, the vet you land will contribute 2-3 times as many FPs to your FFL roster as the rookies drafted with the picks you traded away. Seriously.

My $0.02.

 

[RC94]

I agree that draft picks tend to get over-valued. I tend to think of who I would draft at that position and then determine who/what I would give up to get that player. In other words, I try not to think of it as a draft pick, but rather a specific player.

 

[LabelMan]

I think i got over on a guy in my dynasty league this week. I have Brandon Jacobs. I got Rebeun "Don't call me a Sandwhich" Droughns for a 3rd round pick in our rookie/free agent draft.

Thoughts?

 

[LabelMan]

Anyone think that RDroughns ends up with the bulk of carries & Jacobs takes goal line?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think i got over on a guy in my dynasty league this week. I have Brandon Jacobs. I got Rebeun "Don't call me a Sandwhich" Droughns for a 3rd round pick in our rookie/free agent draft.Thoughts?

Anyone think that RDroughns ends up with the bulk of carries & Jacobs takes goal line?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Back on topic.....

feel free to check out the links in my signature, especially about the Dynasty Rookie Pick Calculator and the associated article.

The OP's question is a good one.

 

[Scrubby Dubs]

Thanks for all those links, Jeff! Trader Joes looks like it contains a lot of good stuff, so I'll have to make time to read the 26 pages. I also checked out the Dynasty Calculator, and I have a couple of questions.

The FBG trade values for picks 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 are 1889, 1670, 1475. I dug up one of the last Top 200 lists from last year, and those trade values are roughly equivalent to overall rankings #7 (1841), #10 (1634), #13 (1457). Now, I know that I am comparing dynasty trade values with redraft Top 200 trade values, but I don't think that pick 1.03 is even close to being worth the 13th best player on a dynastry draft board. The last time I looked, the dynasty expert rankings had CJ as the 3rd rookie in the overall rankings at #31.

I see the Dynasty Calculator as an excellent tool for evaluating pick-for-pick trades, but how would you gauge trade values for a mix of picks and vets? For instance, how could you pragmatically decide that you should trade Rex Grossman or Deuce McAllister for a 3rd round rookie pick? Could these types of decisions be determined more by league tendancies more than anything else?

 

[Biabreakable]

beto did a study of this. One of the more objective answers to the OP question.

Here it is: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=148170

I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.

This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with draft classes of varying talent and depth.

First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.

1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.

2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.

3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.

Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.

CODERookie pick # = Veteran pick #

1.1 = 2.4

The perfect srting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick. However, the fact is that no matter how much you love a player, until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.

CODE 1.2 = 2.8

I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.

CODE 1.3 = 3.2

The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.

CODE 1.4 = 3.11

The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.

CODE 1.5 = 5.5

This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.

CODE 1.6 = 5.8

I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.

CODE 1.7 = 7.2

The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.

CODE 1.8 = 9.1

The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.

CODE 1.9 = 11.1

Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.

CODE 1.10 = 12.6

1.11 = 13.6

1.12 = 15.1

I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!

I know alot of us are in dynasty leagues with each other but I hope this can generate some discussion. I would love to see the data from anyone else who has saved it. I have mine in a excel table and would be happy to share. Shoot me a PM.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Thanks for all those links, Jeff! Trader Joes looks like it contains a lot of good stuff, so I'll have to make time to read the 26 pages. I also checked out the Dynasty Calculator, and I have a couple of questions.The FBG trade values for picks 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 are 1889, 1670, 1475. I dug up one of the last Top 200 lists from last year, and those trade values are roughly equivalent to overall rankings #7 (1841), #10 (1634), #13 (1457). Now, I know that I am comparing dynasty trade values with redraft Top 200 trade values, but I don't think that pick 1.03 is even close to being worth the 13th best player on a dynastry draft board. The last time I looked, the dynasty expert rankings had CJ as the 3rd rookie in the overall rankings at #31.I see the Dynasty Calculator as an excellent tool for evaluating pick-for-pick trades, but how would you gauge trade values for a mix of picks and vets? For instance, how could you pragmatically decide that you should trade Rex Grossman or Deuce McAllister for a 3rd round rookie pick? Could these types of decisions be determined more by league tendancies more than anything else?

Scrubby Dubs,It's not an apples to apples task to compare the Dynasty Pick Calculator to veteran picks and/or Top 200. It's a tool to compare picks to other picks, nothing more.In that limited scope, however, I think it is pretty on the mark.As for your second question, beto's study is pretty good - but limited to his particular league.I go with the general rule of thumb that "a slot = a round", where 1.01 rookie is worth, roughly, the end of Round 1, 1.02 is worth the end of Round 2, etc.As you can see from beto's study, it's pretty close.Obviously the years vary as for talent and rookies and depth of vets, etc., so it is just a rule of thumb.HTH

 

[Scrubby Dubs]

These responses definitely help! I knew that I wasn't comparing apples to apples, and like I said -- I think that the dynasty calculator is a very good tool. I like your rule of thumb too.

I've been databasing activity from my dynasty league for 2 years trying to gauge value, but the problem is that our owners make very few trades. You threw out the caveat that the beto study was "limited to his particular league". So, perhaps there is something to my earlier question that maybe league trading tendencies influence perceived value? Namely, precedents are set and are then used as baselines?

Anyway, thanks for all the solid perspective that you provide!