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How do you generate your cheat sheets? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter moleculo
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
1) Document all relevant players in tab 1
2) Use all players in tab 1 to rank players in appropriate position tabs - this is just guesswork, the not really scientific stuff comes later
3) After I get all players I deem to have a value > 0 - reasonable estimate - on each player tab I make adjustments as I see fit
4) Eye ball potential tier drops for each position and document accordingly
5) Research by tier one position at a time - identify ceiling's, floor's, expectations accompanied with relevant notes (coaching changes, scheme changes, concerns, anything else relevant)
6) When I finish a position I review all data compiled and move players up/down tiers as I see fit, the information gathered is the baseline, 'gut' is a factor but a very very small one
7) Gather ADP data from multiple sources and note accordingly, I only use ADP to know when to take a player I'm higher on than most - they're highlighted in yellow, I highlight players I'm lower on in red. If there is a huge discrepancy between my expectation and the norm I may re-evaluate but only in unusual cases
8) adjust according to new information obtained from Training Camp's without being over reactionary
I usually start this process after OTA's, I'm usually done or at least close to done by the time Camp breaks. Really doesn't take more than an hour/day and that's taking into account weekends in which I rarely do anything with my cheat sheet. I guess following the game year-round makes this possible.
I may have missed something, I'm a bit rushed, I'll add it when I get back later today if I did...
2) Use all players in tab 1 to rank players in appropriate position tabs - this is just guesswork, the not really scientific stuff comes later
3) After I get all players I deem to have a value > 0 - reasonable estimate - on each player tab I make adjustments as I see fit
4) Eye ball potential tier drops for each position and document accordingly
5) Research by tier one position at a time - identify ceiling's, floor's, expectations accompanied with relevant notes (coaching changes, scheme changes, concerns, anything else relevant)
6) When I finish a position I review all data compiled and move players up/down tiers as I see fit, the information gathered is the baseline, 'gut' is a factor but a very very small one
7) Gather ADP data from multiple sources and note accordingly, I only use ADP to know when to take a player I'm higher on than most - they're highlighted in yellow, I highlight players I'm lower on in red. If there is a huge discrepancy between my expectation and the norm I may re-evaluate but only in unusual cases
8) adjust according to new information obtained from Training Camp's without being over reactionary
I usually start this process after OTA's, I'm usually done or at least close to done by the time Camp breaks. Really doesn't take more than an hour/day and that's taking into account weekends in which I rarely do anything with my cheat sheet. I guess following the game year-round makes this possible.
I may have missed something, I'm a bit rushed, I'll add it when I get back later today if I did...
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
The last couple seasons, I've used the ADP lists from Antsports. They have a decent sample size of draft data. Then I cross off the guys I'm sure I don't want, and use arrows and stars and other wacky symbols to indicate guys I'd draft above ADP. I have one page of sleepers, probably some notes on a "draft plan," the rounds I may target for certain positions, all roughly based on the ADP spreadsheets.
A pretty basic system considering all the time I spend reading about FF. But it works for me. Projecting statistics isn't intuitive for me.
A pretty basic system considering all the time I spend reading about FF. But it works for me. Projecting statistics isn't intuitive for me.
brownhelmets
Footballguy
I probably need to quit going by the book so much. Usually, I do a lot with ADP. Run in a lot of mock drafts as well. I run mock drafts for my league as well knowing that I have been in my big money league with most of these guys for over 10 years. I usually have a pretty good feeling as to which way these guys will go.
My biggest weakness is staying too much with ADP. I really need to start "reaching" to ensure I get the guys I want. Last season I chose to wait another round only to lose out on the following guys:
Chris Johnson
Steve Slaton
Antonio Bryant
Instead I took guys that probably didn't really remain on my team for the season. My goal this year is to go with my gut on players that I really like. My need to constantly go "by the book" has cost me several good players.
My biggest weakness is staying too much with ADP. I really need to start "reaching" to ensure I get the guys I want. Last season I chose to wait another round only to lose out on the following guys:
Chris Johnson
Steve Slaton
Antonio Bryant
Instead I took guys that probably didn't really remain on my team for the season. My goal this year is to go with my gut on players that I really like. My need to constantly go "by the book" has cost me several good players.
moleculo
Footballguy
Go Pokes!
Arizona Ron
Footballguy
Depends on the league. Some of my low money leagues draft pretty early so I just pick up an FBG sheet. My bigger money league drafts on Labor Day weekend; by then I've tweeked my FBG sheets a little with ADP from prior drafts/data and the most up to date sheets. The last thing is my personal highlights of players I don't want all (like high ranked players on bad teams, e.g. SJ last year).
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I don't make rankings. I read a lot material on a lot of players and I feel that I know who I like and who I dislike. I draft based upon the knowledge that I have and I don't need rankings. I believe it is more important to have as much information about players as possible and care less about rankings.
Banger
Footballguy
Basically what I do is pretty easy. My entire offseason is basically spent looking to identify a handful of players to target and a handful of players/situations to avoid, based on ADP, cheat sheets, etc.. There are a lot of very smart, successful fantasy football geeks that put a lot of time and thought in creating the cheat sheets and by and large I agree with most of the rankings (there's always a little bump up or drop down here or there) but there are always the situations that you just love (or hate). Last year Chris Johnson was at the top of the list and I also targetted Schaub in many leagues. It's hitting on those guys or avoiding a few landmines that make the difference IMO.
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Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
'Some of my low money leagues draft pretty early so I just pick up an FBG sheet'.Good thing winning isn't everything in those Leagues.
stevegamer
Footballguy
Redraft:
My most important tool is a roster grid, so I know who has what spots filled & the draft order. And a list of players, so I can cross guys off & know bye weeks. Otherwise, it depends on when my redraft league is drafting, and how life is going.
I will do some mock drafts if I have time to try out strategies once the order is set.
I never do my own projections anymore (tried it once), and I rarely even worry about grading within loose tiers - I've found that more work doesn't help me be more successful. I just more or less bump guys up or down from some ranking source - usually FBG, due to it being in Excel. I've never missed the playoffs, and I've had a regular season or two so dominant, it was nuts.
One year my draft prep was watching a little CFL football while on a long trip in Canada, and drafting about 15 hours after I got home - most of which I spent sleeping, unpacking, getting the dogs form the kennel, dealing with mail, etc. I used a printed out list from somewhere to make sure I had relevant players, and my grid.
Dynasty:
Work really comes in grading the rookies & assessing roster needs. It's a slow draft, so I have a general idea of ADP, and am normally deciding between a few guys at each spot.
This philosophy comes from the belief that it's impossible to control luck in the playoffs. I've only won 1 FF title ever as a #1 seed - and that was not my team that went undefeated in the regular season. If I make the playoffs every year with a top 2-4 team, I will win titles.
My most important tool is a roster grid, so I know who has what spots filled & the draft order. And a list of players, so I can cross guys off & know bye weeks. Otherwise, it depends on when my redraft league is drafting, and how life is going.
I will do some mock drafts if I have time to try out strategies once the order is set.
I never do my own projections anymore (tried it once), and I rarely even worry about grading within loose tiers - I've found that more work doesn't help me be more successful. I just more or less bump guys up or down from some ranking source - usually FBG, due to it being in Excel. I've never missed the playoffs, and I've had a regular season or two so dominant, it was nuts.
One year my draft prep was watching a little CFL football while on a long trip in Canada, and drafting about 15 hours after I got home - most of which I spent sleeping, unpacking, getting the dogs form the kennel, dealing with mail, etc. I used a printed out list from somewhere to make sure I had relevant players, and my grid.
Dynasty:
Work really comes in grading the rookies & assessing roster needs. It's a slow draft, so I have a general idea of ADP, and am normally deciding between a few guys at each spot.
This philosophy comes from the belief that it's impossible to control luck in the playoffs. I've only won 1 FF title ever as a #1 seed - and that was not my team that went undefeated in the regular season. If I make the playoffs every year with a top 2-4 team, I will win titles.
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I generally start with a list of the stats from the previous year, and adjust the projections for the top 20-30 players at each position based on injuries from the previous years, changes in the offseason, age, team improvements, etc. Mostly just a basic 'I think he'll be 10 or 20% better or worse than last year'. I'll generally compare my projections against another source as a sanity check.
I plug those numbers into the draft dominator, and for everyone else who I didn't come up with projections for, I start with a list from another source and tweak their numbers to get them into the right draft range.
I plug those numbers into the draft dominator, and for everyone else who I didn't come up with projections for, I start with a list from another source and tweak their numbers to get them into the right draft range.
lyon812
Footballguy
I try to be thorough, so it takes me a pretty long time to get my ranking sheets done. I don't use ADP, as I think it's pretty useless across so many disparate scoring systems. If I'm happy getting a player in X round, then I don't care. I'd rather swing and miss on a guy that I got where I wanted him, than to not get to draft him because I was trying to be tricksy and wait an extra two rounds. Like last year, that guy was Slaton. If he hadn't worked out, I wouldn't have been too upset despite the early pick, but if I hadn't gotten him, I woulda been supremely pissed.
Anyway, my methodology for my dynasty league spreadsheets is below. I use Microsoft Excel because it's easy to manipulate.
1. ORGANIZE BY POSITION:
Separate out all available players by position before the NFL draft.
2. ROOKIES:
--Research the top 20-25 at each position to start. You can almost always find a base list of these players on the web from any of the draft sites, or use FBG threads. No matter how thorough you are, if you aren't a staffer, you'll probably have missed people ("Sammie Stroughter? Who the..? How do you pronounce that?"), particularly the smaller-school players that fly under the radar.
--Compile data. Massive amounts of it. Find your top 5 draft websites and read all of their scouting reports of all of their players. Copy their rankings, so that you have an aggregate listing of how various places rank players, sort of like the FBG Forecast. Revisit these sites every week or two. Look for changes. If there are changes, figure out why they've changed. Your rankings should be fluid, as well.
--Take notes on their strengths and weaknesses, as well as what they're coming from (for example, spread offense, crappy quarterback throwing to them, etc.) Judging them independent of their future NFL situation is important so that you have an unbiased picture of them as a player.
--Use consistent criteria when taking notes so you don't confuse yourself later. For WR, that might be separation, routes, deep speed, catching, elusiveness, balance, blocking, jumping. For RB, it might be power, balance, handling, speed, vision, elusiveness, blocking, receiving. Waldman has a good set of criteria to base things on in his scouting portfolio.
--Make time to watch highlight videos. Usually there's a few out there. Take these with a grain of salt, of course, because they're obviously biased. Still, if the highlights are of a guy running for 30 yards through a hole that I could drive a semi through, that's one thing. If it's of someone showing incredible vision/toughness and slashing for 7 yards, that's something else altogether.
-- Personalize your rankings. Now you have video, notes, professional rankings, and tons of data. Start making your own decisions, and if you make them public, be prepared to discuss them with more than "I like him". Discussion is usually good. Some advice: don't be afraid to show confidence, but have reasons for them. A lot of people are wrong, a lot of the time. For example, I think Britt is awesome and that if he learns how to not fight the ball, he'll be a stud, and numerous interviews/comments have indicated he's a serious, hard worker that has a great chance to do just that. I've also argued for Slaton, Pettigrew, Mike Thomas. If you have a guy who you really like but you can't adequately argue their case or provide support for why he should be ranked that high, then you really need to examine your rankings/perceptions/criteria. If you're wrong, you're wrong, but at least you'll be able to refine your process and analysis. It's a lot easier to fix an error in judgment than it is to correct a misplaced hunch.
2b. NON-ROOKIES:
Typically, the top players are kept, and in salary/contract leagues, the best available players typically stand out. Since they aren't rookies, I've already done the homework on them. Saving past years' notes is important, so that three years from now you remember how you felt about Tom Brandstater, minus the hype.
3. ADJUST BASED ON SITUATION:
--After the NFL draft, examine their situation. What system are they going to? Who else is already there? Cross-reference talent and opportunity. Look for those who can succeed in the first two years, those who need help, and those who are solely long-term plans. Adjust your rankings accordingly and make notes about who you think they'll replace/beat out. For example, Kenny McKinley notes read: 2009 WR4-5, 2010 Marshall gone? Can beat out Gaffney/Jackson. Mike Goodson reads: eventual counterpart to Stewart? Long-term potential only. Goodson was higher in my pre-draft rankings, but he's certainly lower post-draft.
Opportunity plays a large role in success. Drafting a player that'll contribute/start in 2009 or 2010 is better than one that'll maybe start in 2011. Regimes change. Schemes change. That "eventual successor to X" might find himself out of a job because there's a new coach that wants a new offense or defense. A lot of late round rookie darlings wind up being cut. I'm talking about you, Josh Johnson. Therefore, if you're going to reach, reach for someone with opportunity, not someone who may not get one.
--I don't do projections, but I try to estimate what a person is going to be in an offense. It could be a crowded situation, like Juaquin Iglesias, who will have to compete initially for catches with Olson and Forte in addition to, presumably, Bennett (an FBG darling from last year) and Hester. It could be an open situation, like Mark Bradley in KC. With Gonzo gone, who else is going to catch passes besides Bowe?
--Identify upcoming free agents. You could call this the Michael Turner rule. In 2010, key FA include Jerome Harrison, Jerious Norwood, Willie Parker, Leon Washington, Chester Taylor. That could mean larger roles for some on new teams, or it could mean a vacuum that needs to be filled by someone younger, such as Ian Johnson.
--Create a "final" ranking sheet. For rookie drafts, I have individual position rankings and a loosely organized Top 100-125 based on tiers. For larger drafts or auctions, I usually just stick with the individual position rankings and loosely identify my Top 5-7 at each position. Final isn't really ever the case, though. Performance in OTAs or, especially, preseason football, should be considered. Seriously, preseason football can be an eye-opener if you pay attention to players. Don't look for people dominating against 4th stringers. Look for the guys that are standing out in the 1st-2nd quarters against upper level competition. Once again, that's what got me hooked on Slaton last year (and Willie Parker a few years before that). Because, to be honest, what they're doing in NFL games against NFL starters and first-level backups, after having a few months of NFL coaching, is a hell of a lot more important than what they did in college.
Anyway, my methodology for my dynasty league spreadsheets is below. I use Microsoft Excel because it's easy to manipulate.
1. ORGANIZE BY POSITION:
Separate out all available players by position before the NFL draft.
2. ROOKIES:
--Research the top 20-25 at each position to start. You can almost always find a base list of these players on the web from any of the draft sites, or use FBG threads. No matter how thorough you are, if you aren't a staffer, you'll probably have missed people ("Sammie Stroughter? Who the..? How do you pronounce that?"), particularly the smaller-school players that fly under the radar.
--Compile data. Massive amounts of it. Find your top 5 draft websites and read all of their scouting reports of all of their players. Copy their rankings, so that you have an aggregate listing of how various places rank players, sort of like the FBG Forecast. Revisit these sites every week or two. Look for changes. If there are changes, figure out why they've changed. Your rankings should be fluid, as well.
--Take notes on their strengths and weaknesses, as well as what they're coming from (for example, spread offense, crappy quarterback throwing to them, etc.) Judging them independent of their future NFL situation is important so that you have an unbiased picture of them as a player.
--Use consistent criteria when taking notes so you don't confuse yourself later. For WR, that might be separation, routes, deep speed, catching, elusiveness, balance, blocking, jumping. For RB, it might be power, balance, handling, speed, vision, elusiveness, blocking, receiving. Waldman has a good set of criteria to base things on in his scouting portfolio.
--Make time to watch highlight videos. Usually there's a few out there. Take these with a grain of salt, of course, because they're obviously biased. Still, if the highlights are of a guy running for 30 yards through a hole that I could drive a semi through, that's one thing. If it's of someone showing incredible vision/toughness and slashing for 7 yards, that's something else altogether.
-- Personalize your rankings. Now you have video, notes, professional rankings, and tons of data. Start making your own decisions, and if you make them public, be prepared to discuss them with more than "I like him". Discussion is usually good. Some advice: don't be afraid to show confidence, but have reasons for them. A lot of people are wrong, a lot of the time. For example, I think Britt is awesome and that if he learns how to not fight the ball, he'll be a stud, and numerous interviews/comments have indicated he's a serious, hard worker that has a great chance to do just that. I've also argued for Slaton, Pettigrew, Mike Thomas. If you have a guy who you really like but you can't adequately argue their case or provide support for why he should be ranked that high, then you really need to examine your rankings/perceptions/criteria. If you're wrong, you're wrong, but at least you'll be able to refine your process and analysis. It's a lot easier to fix an error in judgment than it is to correct a misplaced hunch.
2b. NON-ROOKIES:
Typically, the top players are kept, and in salary/contract leagues, the best available players typically stand out. Since they aren't rookies, I've already done the homework on them. Saving past years' notes is important, so that three years from now you remember how you felt about Tom Brandstater, minus the hype.
3. ADJUST BASED ON SITUATION:
--After the NFL draft, examine their situation. What system are they going to? Who else is already there? Cross-reference talent and opportunity. Look for those who can succeed in the first two years, those who need help, and those who are solely long-term plans. Adjust your rankings accordingly and make notes about who you think they'll replace/beat out. For example, Kenny McKinley notes read: 2009 WR4-5, 2010 Marshall gone? Can beat out Gaffney/Jackson. Mike Goodson reads: eventual counterpart to Stewart? Long-term potential only. Goodson was higher in my pre-draft rankings, but he's certainly lower post-draft.
Opportunity plays a large role in success. Drafting a player that'll contribute/start in 2009 or 2010 is better than one that'll maybe start in 2011. Regimes change. Schemes change. That "eventual successor to X" might find himself out of a job because there's a new coach that wants a new offense or defense. A lot of late round rookie darlings wind up being cut. I'm talking about you, Josh Johnson. Therefore, if you're going to reach, reach for someone with opportunity, not someone who may not get one.
--I don't do projections, but I try to estimate what a person is going to be in an offense. It could be a crowded situation, like Juaquin Iglesias, who will have to compete initially for catches with Olson and Forte in addition to, presumably, Bennett (an FBG darling from last year) and Hester. It could be an open situation, like Mark Bradley in KC. With Gonzo gone, who else is going to catch passes besides Bowe?
--Identify upcoming free agents. You could call this the Michael Turner rule. In 2010, key FA include Jerome Harrison, Jerious Norwood, Willie Parker, Leon Washington, Chester Taylor. That could mean larger roles for some on new teams, or it could mean a vacuum that needs to be filled by someone younger, such as Ian Johnson.
--Create a "final" ranking sheet. For rookie drafts, I have individual position rankings and a loosely organized Top 100-125 based on tiers. For larger drafts or auctions, I usually just stick with the individual position rankings and loosely identify my Top 5-7 at each position. Final isn't really ever the case, though. Performance in OTAs or, especially, preseason football, should be considered. Seriously, preseason football can be an eye-opener if you pay attention to players. Don't look for people dominating against 4th stringers. Look for the guys that are standing out in the 1st-2nd quarters against upper level competition. Once again, that's what got me hooked on Slaton last year (and Willie Parker a few years before that). Because, to be honest, what they're doing in NFL games against NFL starters and first-level backups, after having a few months of NFL coaching, is a hell of a lot more important than what they did in college.
moleculo
Footballguy
toxic
Footballguy
I'm a stat geek and enjoy working with projections, so I put way too much time into it (relative to the incremental insight it provides). That disclaimer aside, here is my process:
1. Establish an efficiency metric for players from the past season (sum of points scored in full games played / expected points allowed to that position by defensive team in those games)
2. Adjust efficiency scores based on objective inputs (efficiency scores from previous years) and subjective factors (changes to player situation)
3. Adjust points allowed (by position) for every defensive team based on roster/scheme changes to defensive team
4. Multiply efficiency score X points allowed for next season's schedule. This produces an overall projection and a hot-spot analysis (e.g. good playoff sched).
5. Create a weighted average of these projections with consensus FBG projections to incorporate insights of those more knowledgeable than I
The end result tends to produce a cheatsheet that is mostly in line with consensus projections, but which highlights a number of potentially under and over-valued players. Crossed with ADP, this helps me confirm who I want to target during drafts.
1. Establish an efficiency metric for players from the past season (sum of points scored in full games played / expected points allowed to that position by defensive team in those games)
2. Adjust efficiency scores based on objective inputs (efficiency scores from previous years) and subjective factors (changes to player situation)
3. Adjust points allowed (by position) for every defensive team based on roster/scheme changes to defensive team
4. Multiply efficiency score X points allowed for next season's schedule. This produces an overall projection and a hot-spot analysis (e.g. good playoff sched).
5. Create a weighted average of these projections with consensus FBG projections to incorporate insights of those more knowledgeable than I
The end result tends to produce a cheatsheet that is mostly in line with consensus projections, but which highlights a number of potentially under and over-valued players. Crossed with ADP, this helps me confirm who I want to target during drafts.
moleculo
Footballguy
sounds like you take SOS into account more than most. How successful are you with this?If you skipped step 5 above, how would you feel about your projections?
toxic
Footballguy
I'm no fantasy god, but I do fairly well in the stranger money leagues I play in (they are usually quite competitive and filled with knowledgeable owners, but beyond that I have a tough time saying how competitive they are). I'm almost always in the playoffs, but my performance is a bit of a crapshoot after that. I guess whether that is successful depends a bit on one's standards...I have no worries about using SOS (Points allowed to position) from the previous season to calculate efficiency. There is a large enough sample from the previous year that I trust that the summed points allowed are a fairly valid representation of expected outcome for an average player at the position. I do tend to find some outliers in this analysis--those often temper my enthusiasm for some high performers and lower my disappointment with some underperformers from the previous season. I'm much more leery of using these PA values for the upcoming season and tend to adjust most of the PA values toward the mean for the upcoming year as a result. There seems to be a lot of movement in defensive performance year to year, so I don't want there to be too much variance on this metric moving forward.As for the value minus step 5--I would worry about not including some level of consensus projections since there is much to know about changes in player's situations I simply don't have the time to track and step 5 tends to incorporate those insights. However, I have found that there is an amplification effect from that subjective assessment that moves players around more than historical precedent would suggest. The inclusion of the efficiency-based projections limits some of the effects of hype. I have tried weighting consensus versus my projections at different levels over the years, but haven't tracked their predictive value well enough to say anything definitive about optimal weighting. But I certainly wouldn't want to give these numbers more than about a 50% weight.
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