How do you legitimize drafting a guy that burned you last year? (1 Viewer)

[JAMMIN]

I know Kevin Jones has always had a TON of Potential.

However, last year I spent a 2nd rounder on Kevin Jones and he proved pretty much worthless for most of the year. From what I am reading this year he is being taken by most in the second round again and is surronded by a ton of positive hype. I have read Martz is taking over the offense and plans to use Jones heavily but is this really enough to make him a 2nd rounder again after last years performance.

Any input as to why anyone should trust this guy will be more productive this year? I am assuming there must be a ton of reasons due to his ADP.

I am sure anyone at the middle to the end of the 2nd round will appreciate your input.

 

[jurb26]

Drafting is like playing CB, you have to have confidence and a short memory. Simple as that.

 

[Righetti]

my buddy who is a huge Mets fan drafted Carlos Beltran with his first pick last year and passed on him in the 5th round this year

he hates his life..

cream rises to the top

 

[Ozymandias]

FF ain't a science. If it were, it would be boringly predictable. Who would have thunk, when Brett Favre threw 19 td's and 24 int's in his second full year, that he's go 33 and 14 the next year?

Maybe last year revealed the true KJ, or maybe not.

 

[BigRed]

KJ has "Ant Smith Syndrome" ie overrated every year despite himself, but back to the actual question....

I don't. I scorn and avoid the POSs. This year it's friggin Randy Moss.

 

[Buckychudd]

He's getting drafted in the second round? I'll pass.

I like the guy this year, but second round is too high.

 

[shredhead]

He's getting drafted in the second round? I'll pass.I like the guy this year, but second round is too high.

I also wasted a pick 24 on him last year. Had him as RB2 along side LT2. Thought I was golden at the time but ##### happens. I will consider him as a RB3 in say the 4th or 5th round this year, but I will roll the dice with other backs in the 2nd round before getting KJ. I realize he probably won't be there in the 4th or 5th so he probably won't be on my team. But if he happens to fall then I may have to roll the dice again. Or if I decide to go RB,WR,WR, then he might be my best option in the 4th. I doubt it because I would probably pick up Dillon or Taylor then get Maroney or Moore as a handcuff later. So I guess what I am saying in a roundabout way is if Dillon and Taylor are both gone and KJ is still there, then I will consider drafting him.

 

[Rooster]

my buddy who is a huge Mets fan drafted Carlos Beltran with his first pick last year and passed on him in the 5th round this yearhe hates his life..cream rises to the top

It's all about value. Kevin Jones in the first or second round like last year? No thanks. Kevin Jones just before people start taking speculative RBs and backups? Sure, seems like good value to me.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

He's getting drafted in the second round? I'll pass.I like the guy this year, but second round is too high.

I also wasted a pick 24 on him last year. Had him as RB2 along side LT2. Thought I was golden at the time but ##### happens. I will consider him as a RB3 in say the 4th or 5th round this year, but I will roll the dice with other backs in the 2nd round before getting KJ. I realize he probably won't be there in the 4th or 5th so he probably won't be on my team. But if he happens to fall then I may have to roll the dice again. Or if I decide to go RB,WR,WR, then he might be my best option in the 4th. I doubt it because I would probably pick up Dillon or Taylor then get Maroney or Moore as a handcuff later. So I guess what I am saying in a roundabout way is if Dillon and Taylor are both gone and KJ is still there, then I will consider drafting him.

Well, he's not gonna be there for you.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Last year I avoided Kevin Jones because I didn't believe the hype, and it paid off for me. But it could just as easily have burned me (I did believe they hype about Julius Jones, for example).

This year, circumstances would have to change for me to consider Kevin Jones...and they have-- New OC and new QB. I think Martz might have realized that abandoning the running game is one reason why he doesn't have a head coaching job right now.

Of course he might burn me this year (although I don't consder him a top guy...just the best of the mythical third tier) but I base it on what I see. That's what you or any other owner have to do. You legitimize it by doing what other posters have written...having a short memory and looking at this year's situation.

 

[John Mamula]

I know Kevin Jones has always had a TON of Potential. However, last year I spent a 2nd rounder on Kevin Jones and he proved pretty much worthless for most of the year. From what I am reading this year he is being taken by most in the second round again and is surronded by a ton of positive hype. I have read Martz is taking over the offense and plans to use Jones heavily but is this really enough to make him a 2nd rounder again after last years performance. Any input as to why anyone should trust this guy will be more productive this year? I am assuming there must be a ton of reasons due to his ADP.I am sure anyone at the middle to the end of the 2nd round will appreciate your input.

Only draft players in the top 5-6 rounds that have proven they can do it. Drafting players on potential at the top of your draft is something that kills you faster than anything else in a draft.I have no confidence that he will be that much more productive this year and would definitely not pay to get him at his ADP.There are a ton of reasons why his ADP is so high, but most are extremely flawed.The best thing you can do in a draft is to see ADPs that make no sense and capitalize on them. This is how you derive value in a draft.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I know Kevin Jones has always had a TON of Potential. However, last year I spent a 2nd rounder on Kevin Jones and he proved pretty much worthless for most of the year. From what I am reading this year he is being taken by most in the second round again and is surronded by a ton of positive hype. I have read Martz is taking over the offense and plans to use Jones heavily but is this really enough to make him a 2nd rounder again after last years performance. Any input as to why anyone should trust this guy will be more productive this year? I am assuming there must be a ton of reasons due to his ADP.I am sure anyone at the middle to the end of the 2nd round will appreciate your input.

Only draft players in the top 5-6 rounds that have proven they can do it. Drafting players on potential at the top of your draft is something that kills you faster than anything else in a draft.I have no confidence that he will be that much more productive this year and would definitely not pay to get him at his ADP.There are a ton of reasons why his ADP is so high, but most are extremely flawed.The best thing you can do in a draft is to see ADPs that make no sense and capitalize on them. This is how you derive value in a draft.

Did you feel the same way about Tomlinson and Portis in their first years? Would you draft Bush if he was available in the sixth round? He hasn't proven anything, but could you afford to let him go for a sixth round receiver?

 

[Warpig]

I too was burned by KJ last year in my auction league. He was Super value though. I bought into the hype last year and when I was able to get him for $18 I thought I had the SOD (average RB's go for upwards of 20+ dollars). I paired him with Rudi Johnson. Needless to say I won't be touching him unless he's excellent value (under $10). I also don't trust Martz. I have a feeling he's gonna be rotating his RB's.

 

[John Mamula]

I know Kevin Jones has always had a TON of Potential. However, last year I spent a 2nd rounder on Kevin Jones and he proved pretty much worthless for most of the year. From what I am reading this year he is being taken by most in the second round again and is surronded by a ton of positive hype. I have read Martz is taking over the offense and plans to use Jones heavily but is this really enough to make him a 2nd rounder again after last years performance. Any input as to why anyone should trust this guy will be more productive this year? I am assuming there must be a ton of reasons due to his ADP.I am sure anyone at the middle to the end of the 2nd round will appreciate your input.

Only draft players in the top 5-6 rounds that have proven they can do it. Drafting players on potential at the top of your draft is something that kills you faster than anything else in a draft.I have no confidence that he will be that much more productive this year and would definitely not pay to get him at his ADP.There are a ton of reasons why his ADP is so high, but most are extremely flawed.The best thing you can do in a draft is to see ADPs that make no sense and capitalize on them. This is how you derive value in a draft.

Did you feel the same way about Tomlinson and Portis in their first years? Would you draft Bush if he was available in the sixth round? He hasn't proven anything, but could you afford to let him go for a sixth round receiver?

depending on when i drafted, who i had, and what the other options would be, i would consider bush as high as the 4th round. but there is no way i would draft a rookie in the top 3 rounds, and there has to be very special exceptions in the top 5-6.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I know Kevin Jones has always had a TON of Potential. However, last year I spent a 2nd rounder on Kevin Jones and he proved pretty much worthless for most of the year. From what I am reading this year he is being taken by most in the second round again and is surronded by a ton of positive hype. I have read Martz is taking over the offense and plans to use Jones heavily but is this really enough to make him a 2nd rounder again after last years performance. Any input as to why anyone should trust this guy will be more productive this year? I am assuming there must be a ton of reasons due to his ADP.I am sure anyone at the middle to the end of the 2nd round will appreciate your input.

Only draft players in the top 5-6 rounds that have proven they can do it. Drafting players on potential at the top of your draft is something that kills you faster than anything else in a draft.I have no confidence that he will be that much more productive this year and would definitely not pay to get him at his ADP.There are a ton of reasons why his ADP is so high, but most are extremely flawed.The best thing you can do in a draft is to see ADPs that make no sense and capitalize on them. This is how you derive value in a draft.

Did you feel the same way about Tomlinson and Portis in their first years? Would you draft Bush if he was available in the sixth round? He hasn't proven anything, but could you afford to let him go for a sixth round receiver?

depending on when i drafted, who i had, and what the other options would be, i would consider bush as high as the 4th round. but there is no way i would draft a rookie in the top 3 rounds, and there has to be very special exceptions in the top 5-6.

Fair enough.

 

[dapunisher]

my buddy who is a huge Mets fan drafted Carlos Beltran with his first pick last year and passed on him in the 5th round this year

he hates his life..

cream rises to the top

Ha.I took Kevin Jones in the first round last season and I grabbed Beltran as my #1 pick last year in a keeper league. Jones killed my team, and I traded Beltran early in the season. I'd love to have Beltran this year, but I got David Wright and an arm in the deal, so I'm OK.