How early is "too early" for Gurley in the NFL draft? (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

You don't see him going earlier than to SD in a lot of mocks, an obvious potential marriage or intersection of BPA/team need (and sometimes as late as DAL).

1.6 Jets

1.8 Falcons (next gen triplets with Ryan and Julio)

1.10 Rams (love to run, SEA in division example of RB spearheading an offense on consecutive Super Bowl teams, Fisher once in a three year stretch at TEN drafted LenDale White and Chris Henry with second round picks followed by Chris Johnson with a first, 2014 1.2 pick Robinson could be a dominant run blocker, they have a thin OL sketchy in pass blocking, powerful run game takes pressure off Foles, who missed time all three years in PHI)

1.11 Vikings (replacing Hall of Fame caliber Peterson with Gurley would be locking into their identity like "institutionally great QB teams" of IND and GB, who by replacing Manning with Luck and Favre with Rodgers, could be set at the most important position on the field for the better part of three decades).

1.14 Dolphins (linked in some mocks)

Not that it is a surprise, but more national scouts/pundits (Cosell, Casserly, Baldinger, etc. in recent days, weeks) are saying he could be the #1 prospect in the draft in terms of talent. The ACL complicates his draft projection. Without that, many were comfortable slotting him with a top 10 overall grade, which shows how special a prospect he is given the devaluation of the position in recent years (actually, the McCoy extension and Murray free agent contract by PHI showed top RBs are maybe more valued than we realized).

Serious question, if Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson suffered knee injuries in their final college seasons, how much lower would they have dropped, having to delay gratification for a year?

* Nobody mocks Gurley to the Rams. They could certainly use an OL like Scherff, Collins, Peat, Flowers or Erving, as well as a WR like Cooper, White or Parker, other positions, too, but I'm starting to think I would be most intrigued and excited by drafting Gurley. They don't *NEED* the pick with Mason, but it would give them maybe the most talented RB in the league in a year or two.

 

[Mingooch]

To me the big thing is how the knee checks out right before the draft. Is he AP like in terms or healing? or M Lattimore? and never to be heard from again.

 

[cstu]

* Nobody mocks Gurley to the Rams. They could certainly use an OL like Scherff, Collins, Peat, Flowers or Erving, as well as a WR like Cooper, White or Parker, other positions, too, but I'm starting to think I would be most intrigued and excited by drafting Gurley. They don't *NEED* the pick with Mason, but it would give them maybe the most talented RB in the league in a year or two.

The game is won on the lines. The Rams have a QB in Foles who needs protection to be effective and they already have a good RB (not on Gurley's level but can do the job).

Gurley looking like the next ADP makes it tempting but not the smart pick. Adding a special WR makes more sense than RB in today's league.

 

[cstu]

1.14 Dolphins (linked in some mocks)

Miller is a UFA next year so this is something the Dolphins are probably considering. They need WR help but if the guys they want are gone (Vikings take Parker) I won't be surprised if they make Gurley pick.

 

[jurb26]

As long as he doesn't go in the top 5 I couldn't argue with the pick. He's arguably the best player in the draft.

 

[Bob Magaw]

To me the big thing is how the knee checks out right before the draft. Is he AP like in terms or healing? or M Lattimore? and never to be heard from again.

Though Lattimore had two knee injuries (?), and one was more devastating, McGahee-like.Completely agree rising up would be contingent on his knee being on track, and a team's medical staff vetting and green lighting him based on rehab progress/prognosis.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think he'd be a perfect fit in Atlanta and good for the gate receipts. I don't think he slides past them at #8.

 

[Bob Magaw]

* Nobody mocks Gurley to the Rams. They could certainly use an OL like Scherff, Collins, Peat, Flowers or Erving, as well as a WR like Cooper, White or Parker, other positions, too, but I'm starting to think I would be most intrigued and excited by drafting Gurley. They don't *NEED* the pick with Mason, but it would give them maybe the most talented RB in the league in a year or two.

The game is won on the lines. The Rams have a QB in Foles who needs protection to be effective and they already have a good RB (not on Gurley's level but can do the job).

Gurley looking like the next ADP makes it tempting but not the smart pick. Adding a special WR makes more sense than RB in today's league.

I'm not sure SEA had a dominant OL last year, but they have a dominant RB, and Gurley would make any OL look better. No question they need to bolster the OL, but there will be good OL that can be found in this draft in the second and third round, maybe even later. I do like Scherff and Collins a lot, but if they are deployed as guards and aren't Zack Martin, "first rookie OL All Pro (first team) in seven decades great", you can always find guards in any draft. It would be a shame to pass on a RB that might be a once or twice a decade talent, for a pretty good guard. I think of team building as more than a one year process (as I'm sure you do as well). If Gurley is the best RB in the league until he is 30, that would arguably be far more valuable LONG TERM. I don't know if Fisher and Snead are on the hot seat. I know they haven't got to 8-8 in their three seasons, but reportedly owner Kroenke likes them a lot. Snead recently said his philosophy is to take BPA, because if you do, in three years, that almost always works out, but if you reach for need, that can bite you down the road. Do GMs draft BPA, or immediate need, short sighted bias, save their job-type picks? If the latter consistently, maybe those are the kind of GMs that paradoxically would be more likely to lose their job?

Mason is imo certainly good, maybe very good, but if Gurley is the RB equivalent of Calvin Johnson, do you pass on a talent like that, because you have good WRs?

Foles is only signed through 2015, didn't play as well in 2014 than 2013 (I realize OL breakdowns contributed to that) and was hurt all three years. No doubt they want to position him to succeed, but building a dominant run game could be one way to do that, and take pressure off him.

I would usually agree it is better to get a special WR, especially if it isn't for a special RB. But if he is the best since Faulk and Dickerson for the Rams (he would be if he returns to form). I do like Cooper, White and Parker a lot, and could easily see them going in that direction. But last year you could have had Watkins, Evans or OBJ, as well as Benjamin and others, there are good WRs after the top three this year (Casserly prefers the second tier talent in this class). Again, it isn't like they will never have the opportunity to draft a WR again. Though if the team improves, they may not be drafting in the top 10 neighborhood much longer. Is Parker a once or twice a decade talent? Probably not.

I'm not sure the Rams aren't more confident in their WR corp than others realize. They were saying that LAST year, and they did pass on Watkins for Robinson, a potentially dominant RUN blocker. It is nearly impossible to evaluate the Rams WRs given that they played with backups for the last season and a half. I believe Fisher when he says Britt has upside, and he flashed explosiveness last year unseen since pre-knee injury, when he was one of the most promising young WRs in the league. He is only 26-27. Quick had a breakout season cut short by a shoulder injury, and is in a contract year. It would also be a shame if they stunt his development further and basically abandon his potential now, if he was right on the verge of becoming a very good WR. Austin was arguably grossly underused by Schottenheimer, and he cost a mid-first and second to move up to 1.8. His development could be stunted. Bailey could potentially be a WR2/3 (300+ receiving yards in a four game stretch in 2014, after the early suspension set him back) and he could also be marginalized. I would like to see them get at least one year, to see what they have internally, and what they can do with a starting caliber QB, before giving up on some of them. Though I can see the advantages of adding a WR1-type that would clearly be the most talented since Holt was in his prime (though this would also not satisfy your better OL criteria for Foles, so you can't fill every hole in one draft).

I do agree it is a passing league, but they don't have far to look (SEA in division) for an example of a highly successful team built around the defense and run game, they had kind of a rag tag group of WRs with the likes of Baldwin and Kearse playing ancillary roles (sort of like Kurt Rambis on the Show Time-era Lakers).

That said, I think it far more likely the Rams do exactly what you are suggesting (OL or WR). But think it would be a great fit, and makes more sense than a cursory, first pass look might suggest initially, for the reasons outlined above.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think he'd be a perfect fit in Atlanta and good for the gate receipts. I don't think he slides past them at #8.

Good point about the gate, I thought about that angle but neglected to mention it. It would be like if local product hero Herschel Walker had gone to the Falcons instead of the Cowboys back in the day.

 

[Bob Magaw]

A comparison with former Rams "big back" greats Eric Dickerson and Steven Jackson, based on height, weight, strength, speed, elusiveness and pedigree.

Among former Rams big RBs with speed, Eric Dickerson was 6'3", 220 lbs., and Steven Jackson 6'2", 240 lbs. (Gurley is a listed 6'1" 222 lbs.). Dickerson was the tallest, lankiest and maybe fastest, flashing both elusiveness and tackle breaking power, Jackson the biggest and maybe strongest (?), in the middle height-wise and probably the least fast and elusive, with Gurley being the shortest, in the middle thickness, power and speed-wise. Gurley looks to me more agile, elusive and creative a runner (ability to string moves to gether in the open field) than Jackson, not sure he isn't as good as Dickerson in that respect? Dickerson could run over defenders when needed, and was often the fastest player on the field on those John Robinson power formations, and once he hit the crease, could simply run away from just about every defender in the NFL in his prime, before injuries set in. Darrell Green was one of the fastest players of his era, and that was one of the first times I can recall seeing Dickerson chased down from behind in the open field with an appreciable head start.

* Pedigree-wise, Dickerson went #2 after John Elway, arguably the top QB propect and overall prospect since the merger (with Peyton Manning and Luck?). Jackson was taken in the 20s. If healthy, Gurley sounded like a consensus top 10 overall-type talent, with some scouts (like Cosell, Casserly, Baldinger, among others) calling him one of the most talented and best prospects in the draft. In that sense, his pedigree seems a lot closer to Dickerson than Jackson.

 

[Sabertooth]

To be honest I can't see how he's a better prospect than Bell or Lacy. They went in the second. So should he.

 

[cc texan]

Given the performance of the last few 1st round RBs, I don't see how he could (should) go in the 10-20 range.

2012: Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best

2009: Knowson Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells

2008: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson

Regardless of team, you're looking at 1 Stud (CJ2K), 2 Average-Above Average (Mathews, Stewart), and 11 picks better spent elsewhere.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Not sure if you mean factoring the knee injury?

I never heard any scouts say Lacy or Bell was the best RB prospect since Peterson (though there was the infamous false positive with Richardson)? Bell turned into something special, but if we are talking at a comparable stage of development, based on the eyeball test, they weren't remotely as good RB prospects, imo.

Many scouts called a Gurley top 10 overall prospect pre-knee injury. Lacy almost dropped to the third.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Given the performance of the last few 1st round RBs, I don't see how he could (should) go in the 10-20 range.

2012: Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best

2009: Knowson Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells

2008: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson

Regardless of team, you're looking at 1 Stud (CJ2K), 2 Average-Above Average (Mathews, Stewart), and 11 picks better spent elsewhere.

I guess it gets down to the conviction of your scouting department.

If there had been a string of high profile failures at WR, that wouldn't stop me from drafting Calvin Johnson?

* Hypothetically, if Gurley is a lot better than the likes of Donald Brown, it might be misplaced concern to think he will fare poorly, because Brown did, when they may share little or nothing in common. And that may go for other RBs on the list.

Richardson was the only high pedigree example from this list, and there are clear identifiable differences with Gurley, in the sense that, he has nowhere close to the same burst, for instance.

** Gurley's injury history (preceding the 2014 torn ACL) I could see giving a team pause, and not wanting to spend a high pick on him. To me, that would make more sense, than not drafting him based on a list comprised of RBs with the likes of Donald Brown?

 

[Sabertooth]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

 

[Tool]

You don't see him going earlier than to SD in a lot of mocks, an obvious potential marriage or intersection of BPA/team need (and sometimes as late as DAL).

1.6 Jets

1.8 Falcons (next gen triplets with Ryan and Julio)

1.10 Rams (love to run, SEA in division example of RB spearheading an offense on consecutive Super Bowl teams, Fisher once in a three year stretch at TEN drafted LenDale White and Chris Henry with second round picks followed by Chris Johnson with a first, 2014 1.2 pick Robinson could be a dominant run blocker, they have a thin OL sketchy in pass blocking, powerful run game takes pressure off Foles, who missed time all three years in PHI)

1.11 Vikings (replacing Hall of Fame caliber Peterson with Gurley would be locking into their identity like "institutionally great QB teams" of IND and GB, who by replacing Manning with Luck and Favre with Rodgers, could be set at the most important position on the field for the better part of three decades).

1.14 Dolphins (linked in some mocks)

Not that it is a surprise, but more national scouts/pundits (Cosell, Casserly, Baldinger, etc. in recent days, weeks) are saying he could be the #1 prospect in the draft in terms of talent. The ACL complicates his draft projection. Without that, many were comfortable slotting him with a top 10 overall grade, which shows how special a prospect he is given the devaluation of the position in recent years (actually, the McCoy extension and Murray free agent contract by PHI showed top RBs are maybe more valued than we realized).

Serious question, if Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson suffered knee injuries in their final college seasons, how much lower would they have dropped, having to delay gratification for a year?

* Nobody mocks Gurley to the Rams. They could certainly use an OL like Scherff, Collins, Peat, Flowers or Erving, as well as a WR like Cooper, White or Parker, other positions, too, but I'm starting to think I would be most intrigued and excited by drafting Gurley. They don't *NEED* the pick with Mason, but it would give them maybe the most talented RB in the league in a year or two.

Jets: no way, too many other needs and they have a workable stable of guys

Atlanta:no way, desparately need D help

Rams: would be pretty shocked, other needs a priority, and have Mason

Minny: possibility here

Miami: could see this

 

[Tool]

Rotoworld) NFL draft insider Tony Pauline reports the Cowboys are "very high" on Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon and are "targeting him in round one." Analysis: We've been separately told Todd Gurley is Cowboys VP Stephen Jones' No. 1 running back in the draft, but no RB boards will be finalized until Gurley visits Indianapolis this weekend for his medical recheck. What has become clear is multiple running backs will be drafted in the first round this year after the position was bypassed on day one each of the last two years.

 

[GregR]

Anyone else wonder if he's a potential disciplinary problem waiting to happen? I only saw a few of his games but recall a few times it seemed like he wasn't very in control of his actions.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

Which was why I preemptively mentioned him.

But I still agree to disagree if you think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects at a comparable stage of development.

If you look at Gurley and Richardson and can't tell the difference, there is probably no basis to bridge the gap through words. If you do see it, than I would just say as above, he won't have to fail just because Richardson did, if they don't have much in common.

There have been can't miss prospects that failed at every position. But you can't pick no one due to that. Can't miss QBs and WRs failed, but you still take Luck and Calvin Johnson (QB not an ideal example, since we are accustomed to taking QBs very high, #1 overall routine, unlike RB, just illustrating the point, probably WR makes it better).

 

[Bob Magaw]

You don't see him going earlier than to SD in a lot of mocks, an obvious potential marriage or intersection of BPA/team need (and sometimes as late as DAL).

1.6 Jets

1.8 Falcons (next gen triplets with Ryan and Julio)

1.10 Rams (love to run, SEA in division example of RB spearheading an offense on consecutive Super Bowl teams, Fisher once in a three year stretch at TEN drafted LenDale White and Chris Henry with second round picks followed by Chris Johnson with a first, 2014 1.2 pick Robinson could be a dominant run blocker, they have a thin OL sketchy in pass blocking, powerful run game takes pressure off Foles, who missed time all three years in PHI)

1.11 Vikings (replacing Hall of Fame caliber Peterson with Gurley would be locking into their identity like "institutionally great QB teams" of IND and GB, who by replacing Manning with Luck and Favre with Rodgers, could be set at the most important position on the field for the better part of three decades).

1.14 Dolphins (linked in some mocks)

Not that it is a surprise, but more national scouts/pundits (Cosell, Casserly, Baldinger, etc. in recent days, weeks) are saying he could be the #1 prospect in the draft in terms of talent. The ACL complicates his draft projection. Without that, many were comfortable slotting him with a top 10 overall grade, which shows how special a prospect he is given the devaluation of the position in recent years (actually, the McCoy extension and Murray free agent contract by PHI showed top RBs are maybe more valued than we realized).

Serious question, if Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson suffered knee injuries in their final college seasons, how much lower would they have dropped, having to delay gratification for a year?

* Nobody mocks Gurley to the Rams. They could certainly use an OL like Scherff, Collins, Peat, Flowers or Erving, as well as a WR like Cooper, White or Parker, other positions, too, but I'm starting to think I would be most intrigued and excited by drafting Gurley. They don't *NEED* the pick with Mason, but it would give them maybe the most talented RB in the league in a year or two.

Jets: no way, too many other needs and they have a workable stable of guys

Atlanta:no way, desparately need D help

Rams: would be pretty shocked, other needs a priority, and have Mason

Minny: possibility here

Miami: could see this

I agree with most of that, the OP was more of a feeler. I have seen him that high in some mocks, albeit outlier.

NYJ would stun me, ATL a bit of a shock, but you can make a case Gurley might impact their fortunes more if he is special, than a Shane Ray-type, if he isn't. I guess it speaks to a philosophical difference, do you take BPA even *IF* it is stipulated that he is, or reach for a less talented prospect at a need position. I acknowledge pass rushing is badly needed.

As is OL for the Rams, possibly WR, which imo is not as clear cut. If Gurley is really special, and Mason is good or very good but not great, to me, that would be like not taking Calvin Johnson because you already have Roy Williams at WR.

Agree with MIN and MIA.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Gurley looking like the next ADP

is this really popular opinion?

 

[Sabertooth]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

Which was why I preemptively mentioned him.

But I still agree to disagree if you think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects at a comparable stage of development.

If you look at Gurley and Richardson and can't tell the difference, there is probably no basis to bridge the gap through words. If you do see it, than I would just say as above, he won't have to fail just because Richardson did, if they don't have much in common.

There have been can't miss prospects that failed at every position. But you can't pick no one due to that. Can't miss QBs and WRs failed, but you still take Luck and Calvin Johnson (QB not an ideal example, since we are accustomed to taking QBs very high, #1 overall routine, unlike RB, just illustrating the point, probably WR makes it better).

Hindsight is 20/20 Bob.

 

[Max Power]

Top 5 is way too high. 6-10 is still probably too high as well. I think 11-19 is the range he will go. Too many teams in the 20's would take him in a heartbeat. Someone will jump up and snatch him.

 

[tdmills]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

The Colts shouldn't have drafted Andrew Luck because of Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, (insert any QB bust here)?

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

 

[tdmills]

To be honest I can't see how he's a better prospect than Bell or Lacy. They went in the second. So should he.

Last year in college YPC:

Bell 4.7

Lacy 6.5 (behind that ridiculously stacked OL that let Yeldon run for 6.3 YPC)

Gurley 7.4

If you can't see Gurley is the better prospect, than you're not watching film.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't watch "film". I don't have a reel to reel projector at home. I follow the money. I'm not saying you guys are wrong. I'm saying I won't believe he's worthy of a first round draft pick until somebody actually takes him there. I don't have any fantasy drafts until the first week in June so I have the luxury of waiting.

 

[tdmills]

I don't watch "film". I don't have a reel to reel projector at home.

Then how are you coming to the conclusion he's not a better prospect than Bell or Lacy coming out?

Bell lost 10-15 lbs since college/his rookie year and was noticeably quicker in year 2. I would take Gurley over Lacy right now because he's a better player and Lacy has concussion concerns.

 

[Jeremy's Spoken]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

He was.

He was the 1 in 10 can't miss prospect that missed.

I like the 9 out of 10 odds on can't miss prospects.....

I'll continue to draft them high...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think he will go to Atlanta.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

Which was why I preemptively mentioned him.

But I still agree to disagree if you think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects at a comparable stage of development.

If you look at Gurley and Richardson and can't tell the difference, there is probably no basis to bridge the gap through words. If you do see it, than I would just say as above, he won't have to fail just because Richardson did, if they don't have much in common.

There have been can't miss prospects that failed at every position. But you can't pick no one due to that. Can't miss QBs and WRs failed, but you still take Luck and Calvin Johnson (QB not an ideal example, since we are accustomed to taking QBs very high, #1 overall routine, unlike RB, just illustrating the point, probably WR makes it better).

Hindsight is 20/20 Bob.

Yes, no and maybe.

NO - I don't think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects compared to Gurley, if we are talking pre-knee injury (and that isn't hindsight). If you go by the usual means, cites by scouts, it might not be too hard to ask around and have others confirm one way or the other. If lots of others "confirm" that Gurley not as good a prospect, I'll stand corrected in the thread, but that isn't my recollection, and it isn't close.

YES - Some scouts did say Richardson was the best since Peterson. They were wrong. So point taken. They were probably as sure about him then as the advocates of Gurley are now. Gurley could fail, too.

MAYBE - But the flipside to hindsight is 20/20, is that ignoring history can doom you to repeat it. Good point that the former is a negative, trying to invoke knowledge you didn't have before, as if that could shed light on the present. But if you can learn from your mistakes (or those of others), if that possibility exists, than we don't need to rewrite history to compare Richardson and Gurley. We can look at them, respectively, in action. We can compare film of Richardson's last season at Alabama, and Gurley's last at Georgia. If there are material differences and identifiable reasons to think that some flaws of the former are not as present in the latter, and Gurley has strengths unseen in Richardson, it can be possible to use lessons learned from the past, and incorporate them into present judgements and future projections (to name a few, Gurley appears to have vastly superior burst, and Richardson looks a lot more sluggish, like he has to come to a complete stop and pause before changing direction and returning to full speed ASAP). Just because scouts were wrong about Richardson, doesn't mean they have to be about Gurley, now.

* No doubt we will find out during the draft, so we can revisit this in a few weeks. To me, where he is drafted is one of the more interesting narratives of the first round specifically and the entire draft as a whole (mostly because he could be the most talented prospect at any position in the entire draft, and the knee injury does cloud his expected pedigree - how much would Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson fall, in the exact same circumstances?).

 

[Bob Magaw]

Top 5 is way too high. 6-10 is still probably too high as well. I think 11-19 is the range he will go. Too many teams in the 20's would take him in a heartbeat. Someone will jump up and snatch him.

I think something much like this is the consensus. But big difference between 11 and 19.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

Because that's what I said...

What did you say? You cherry picked two players. Who were both character risks and fat coming out of college.

Now looking at first round running backs going back a few years and you have busts just absolutely littering the landscape. Terrible picks.

In fact, in the past 5 drafts in which a running back (any running back) was taken in the first round we saw:

Trent Richardson (2012)

Doug Martin (2012)

David Wilson (2012)

Mark Ingram (2011)

CJ Spiller (2010)

Ryan Matthews (2010)

Jahvid Best (2010)

Knowshon Moreno (2009)

Donald Brown (2009)

Beanie Wells (2009)

Darren McFadden (2008)

Jonathan Stewart (2008)

Felix Jones (2008)

Rashard Mendenhall (2008)

Chris Johnson (2008)

The respective coaching staff that drafted every one of those players got canned within a few seasons of doing so. Except for the bolded coaches. The three bolded coaches (Payton, Coughlin, and Tomlin) all happen to have Super Bowl rings so it isn't remarkable that they are still employed. They've delivered. None of the running backs on this list have ever delivered a ring. Even the ones (Ingram, Wilson, and Mendenhall) who got picked by great coaches have failed.

Picking a running back in the first round is dumb. That doesn't mean it won't happen. But I think teams have finally picked up on that. Maybe Gurley is the next Adrian Peterson (minus the disturbing character issues). Maybe he's an absolute stud. But even with Adrian, the Vikings have one lousy playoff win in 8 seasons. That's why teams have stopped taking running backs high in the draft. It's a path to getting your ### fired.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't watch "film". I don't have a reel to reel projector at home.

Then how are you coming to the conclusion he's not a better prospect than Bell or Lacy coming out?

Bell lost 10-15 lbs since college/his rookie year and was noticeably quicker in year 2. I would take Gurley over Lacy right now because he's a better player and Lacy has concussion concerns.

I haven't come to a conclusion yet. I'm waiting a few more weeks. He might be a much better prospect. Then again, many thought Lacy was a first rounder too but he slid and slid.

 

[Sabertooth]

Trent was a can't miss prospect.

Which was why I preemptively mentioned him.

But I still agree to disagree if you think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects at a comparable stage of development.

If you look at Gurley and Richardson and can't tell the difference, there is probably no basis to bridge the gap through words. If you do see it, than I would just say as above, he won't have to fail just because Richardson did, if they don't have much in common.

There have been can't miss prospects that failed at every position. But you can't pick no one due to that. Can't miss QBs and WRs failed, but you still take Luck and Calvin Johnson (QB not an ideal example, since we are accustomed to taking QBs very high, #1 overall routine, unlike RB, just illustrating the point, probably WR makes it better).

Hindsight is 20/20 Bob.

Yes, no and maybe.

NO - I don't think Bell and Lacy were as good RB prospects compared to Gurley, if we are talking pre-knee injury (and that isn't hindsight). If you go by the usual means, cites by scouts, it might not be too hard to ask around and have others confirm one way or the other. If lots of others "confirm" that Gurley not as good a prospect, I'll stand corrected in the thread, but that isn't my recollection, and it isn't close.

YES - Some scouts did say Richardson was the best since Peterson. They were wrong. So point taken. They were probably as sure about him then as the advocates of Gurley are now. Gurley could fail, too.

MAYBE - But the flipside to hindsight is 20/20, is that ignoring history can doom you to repeat it. Good point that the former is a negative, trying to invoke knowledge you didn't have before, as if that could shed light on the present. But if you can learn from your mistakes (or those of others), if that possibility exists, than we don't need to rewrite history to compare Richardson and Gurley. We can look at them, respectively, in action. We can compare film of Richardson's last season at Alabama, and Gurley's last at Georgia. If there are material differences and identifiable reasons to think that some flaws of the former are not as present in the latter, and Gurley has strengths unseen in Richardson, it can be possible to use lessons learned from the past, and incorporate them into present judgements and future projections (to name a few, Gurley appears to have vastly superior burst, and Richardson looks a lot more sluggish, like he has to come to a complete stop and pause before changing direction and returning to full speed ASAP). Just because scouts were wrong about Richardson, doesn't mean they have to be about Gurley, now.

* No doubt we will find out during the draft, so we can revisit this in a few weeks. To me, where he is drafted is one of the more interesting narratives of the first round specifically and the entire draft as a whole (mostly because he could be the most talented prospect at any position in the entire draft, and the knee injury does cloud his expected pedigree - how much would Andrew Luck or Calvin Johnson fall, in the exact same circumstances?).

McGahee is a good indicator I think. He still went in the first to Buffalo. He got his coach canned too.

I think the NFL has simply figured out that RBs aren't worth the cost (both in pay and opportunity cost of choosing that position) of a first round pick. If Gurley goes in the first, that speaks to him having unusual potential and he's my number 1 dynasty rookie draft pick. That is concrete confirmation in my mind that he's a true blue chippers blue chip prospect. But let's just see if it happens first.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

Because that's what I said...

What did you say? You cherry picked two players. Who were both character risks and fat coming out of college.

Now looking at first round running backs going back a few years and you have busts just absolutely littering the landscape. Terrible picks.

In fact, in the past 5 drafts in which a running back (any running back) was taken in the first round we saw:

Trent Richardson (2012)

Doug Martin (2012)

David Wilson (2012)

Mark Ingram (2011)

CJ Spiller (2010)

Ryan Matthews (2010)

Jahvid Best (2010)

Knowshon Moreno (2009)

Donald Brown (2009)

Beanie Wells (2009)

Darren McFadden (2008)

Jonathan Stewart (2008)

Felix Jones (2008)

Rashard Mendenhall (2008)

Chris Johnson (2008)

The respective coaching staff that drafted every one of those players got canned within a few seasons of doing so. Except for the bolded coaches. The three bolded coaches (Payton, Coughlin, and Tomlin) all happen to have Super Bowl rings so it isn't remarkable that they are still employed. They've delivered. None of the running backs on this list have ever delivered a ring. Even the ones (Ingram, Wilson, and Mendenhall) who got picked by great coaches have failed.

Picking a running back in the first round is dumb. That doesn't mean it won't happen. But I think teams have finally picked up on that. Maybe Gurley is the next Adrian Peterson (minus the disturbing character issues). Maybe he's an absolute stud. But even with Adrian, the Vikings have one lousy playoff win in 8 seasons. That's why teams have stopped taking running backs high in the draft. It's a path to getting your ### fired.

I can understand and appreciate playing the percentages. I try to look at each prospect on a case by case basis. Hypothetically, if WRs had a similar recent bad track record over the same time frame, prior to Calvin Johnson's draft, that rationale could be used to not draft him.

Maybe Gurley's career will parallel Richardson. Everybody who looks at and compares them, has to decide for themselves if they are the same prospect, and the reasons one failed will similarly doom the other. Or, another possibility, that if he is better than most/all the names on that list, the causes of their failure may not be relevant for him in a projection.

The fact that Peterson went to MIN and they have not been to the Super Bowl could just be happenstance, and doesn't necessarily have to be interpreted as, "picking first round RBs is dumb". In some parallel universes, if Peterson were to go to NE, maybe Brady would have more rings, and the default assumption might be, franchise RBs win Super Bowls. If part of MIN's problems can be traced to inability to surround him with a better team, that may speak more to the front office and coaching staff, than his abilities, and the relationship of that to how it impacts on a team's chances to make the Super Bowl.

There may be a few things I disagree with (if stats or recent history suggest not drafting Calvin Johnson, ignore them, they could be happenstance and irrelevant to him if he is a better than the list of predecessors). But mostly, I think this is just a case of looking at things in a different way. I don't agree with all of your position, but I think the case you made was thoughtful and well reasoned, and appreciate the input.

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree. Nice to discuss something with somebody who isn't interested in dogma. I don't have the time nor the skill, nor the desire to watch a bunch of tape. But I can appreciate that you enjoy it. Our different paths just might lead us to the same destination.

 

[Donnybrook]

To me the big thing is how the knee checks out right before the draft. Is he AP like in terms or healing? or M Lattimore? and never to be heard from again.

Agreed. There was a lot of positive spin coming out of Lattimore camp prior to the 2013 draft as well. Hard to speculate when you don't know all the facts.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I really don't watch a lot of film and have noted that in the past.

I'd characterize it more as looking at limited film (but maybe more than once in some cases), collating of multiple scouting reports, a modicum of statistical and historical information about different positions within NFL history in general and draft history specifically, things like what is average and exceptional, what are known boundary cases, and than using that to inform my instincts about trying to suss out of all the possible things that could be important, what are some that are more relevant than others, to the task at hand.

In other words, is their a hierarchy, an information prioritization order, where some kinds or forms are more important than others? And so on.

Observation is part of the process, but to me, inseparable from the stats and history that give it context.

 

[Andrew74]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

I thought Leaf was neck and neck with Manning. How does a guy who is not a "can't miss prospect" get voted the biggest bust of all time?

 

[Proust Loves Cake]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

I thought Leaf was neck and neck with Manning. How does a guy who is not a "can't miss prospect" get voted the biggest bust of all time?

Revisionist history. People create all sorts of narratives to act like they knew better, and they would never make the same evaluative blunder they made the last go around. Always happens.

 

[Proust Loves Cake]

To me the big thing is how the knee checks out right before the draft. Is he AP like in terms or healing? or M Lattimore? and never to be heard from again.

Has nothing to do with how well they heal, not in this example. Lattimore suffered a catastrophic knee injury and was a long shot to ever make it back. 49ers made a bold move on the off chance science would lose to determination, character, and hard work. Science and basic physiology won, unfortunately. That knee was just too much of a mess. Gurley, for all intents and purposes, sustained a simple ACL tear. Not a complicated injury or recovery for most. He should return to form as though it never happened.

 

[Tool]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

Your recall on Leaf is incorrect.

 

[ghostguy123]

Let's say for a hypothetical he never got hurt and looked great all year like he was pre-injury.

Top 10 would be too early.

With zero idea of his health, or what his health will be, I have no idea

And I think he looked great BTW, just top 10 for a RB is too early for me

 

[cstu]

Let's say for a hypothetical he never got hurt and looked great all year like he was pre-injury.

Top 10 would be too early.

With zero idea of his health, or what his health will be, I have no idea

And I think he looked great BTW, just top 10 for a RB is too early for me

Top 10 would be fine if say the Patriots somehow got a hold of a top 10 pick. Problem is the teams in the top 10 have way too many holes to be worrying about RB that early.

 

[cstu]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

Your recall on Leaf is incorrect.

http://espn.go.com/magazine/vol1no03manningleaf.html

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

I thought Leaf was neck and neck with Manning. How does a guy who is not a "can't miss prospect" get voted the biggest bust of all time?

Revisionist history. People create all sorts of narratives to act like they knew better, and they would never make the same evaluative blunder they made the last go around. Always happens.

find me a single article that calls Russell or Leaf a can't miss prospect. Post the link.

 

[FUBAR]

Given the performance of the last few 1st round RBs, I don't see how he could (should) go in the 10-20 range.

2012: Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best

2009: Knowson Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells

2008: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson

Regardless of team, you're looking at 1 Stud (CJ2K), 2 Average-Above Average (Mathews, Stewart), and 11 picks better spent elsewhere.

As much fun as it was watching CJ, the Titans would probably be better as a team had they gone elsewhere with that pick.

The next dozen or so players taken include Duane brown, Jordy Nelson, and Curtis Lofton; while the next few RBs taken matt Forte, ray rice and Jamaal charles.

Can't call it a bad pick and others flopped, but even though they hit on a back, they could have done better.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah I don't recall anyone calling Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell a can't miss prospect. Nice try though.

I thought Leaf was neck and neck with Manning. How does a guy who is not a "can't miss prospect" get voted the biggest bust of all time?

Neck and Neck <> Can't Miss - Take last season, nobody called Bortles a "can't miss" prospect despite him being the best QB prospect.

 

[Max Power]

Top 5 is way too high. 6-10 is still probably too high as well. I think 11-19 is the range he will go. Too many teams in the 20's would take him in a heartbeat. Someone will jump up and snatch him.

I think something much like this is the consensus. But big difference between 11 and 19.

True, I went for the layup there. I'd say 12-15 if I really had to guess. A lot of teams in that range have trade rumors swirling