How far to reach in the early rounds? (1 Viewer)

[Jman]

As I'm finishing up with my draft preparations I'm trying to be more realistic about where I'm going to ACTUALLY be able to draft players that I'm specifically targeting.

While I do understand getting value based on draft position, but how much do you reach for the players you really like? Especially at the beginning of the draft, is it detrimental to reach by a round or two?

Here's my example:

I'm in a 12-team keeper league (keepers cost pick from round they were originally drafted in). 6pts for all TDs, .5 per reception.

My keepers are Ray Rice (for my 5th, 60th overall) and Justin Forsett (14th, 157 overall)

So I figure I'll pick the best player available, but when I get to the 3rd round pick (36th overall) and 4th (37 overall) I'm thinking I HAVE to take Best and Finley because they probably aren't going to be available at the 5/6 turn at 60 and 61.

I know that's "early" considering their ADP, but is it justified based on their upside?

 

[faux_bear]

As I'm finishing up with my draft preparations I'm trying to be more realistic about where I'm going to ACTUALLY be able to draft players that I'm specifically targeting.While I do understand getting value based on draft position, but how much do you reach for the players you really like? Especially at the beginning of the draft, is it detrimental to reach by a round or two?Here's my example:I'm in a 12-team keeper league (keepers cost pick from round they were originally drafted in). 6pts for all TDs, .5 per reception.My keepers are Ray Rice (for my 5th, 60th overall) and Justin Forsett (14th, 157 overall)So I figure I'll pick the best player available, but when I get to the 3rd round pick (36th overall) and 4th (37 overall) I'm thinking I HAVE to take Best and Finley because they probably aren't going to be available at the 5/6 turn at 60 and 61. I know that's "early" considering their ADP, but is it justified based on their upside?

I'm facing a similar situation drafting from early position and am trying to remind myself to draft the team I want to draft, ADP's and value be damned. If I think Steve Smith will be a top 5 WR (and I do), I may consider taking him at #22 over Jennings and Desean Jackson. And if I pass on him at 22 and he gets picked, I may take Michael Crabtree at 27 since I know he won't be there in the bottom of the 4th round for me. yes you may have to endure some chiding from your leaguemates ("reeeeeaaaach!") but who cares? I always feel bad when I take players that I don't really like but am "supposed to take" based on where I am in the draft.So yeah, draft who you want, "value picks" can sometimes be overrated.If you're picking 3rd and you really really like Aaron Rogers because you think he's going to throw 42 touchdowns, take him at 1.3. If you think Antonio Gates will catch 100 balls for 122 yards, take him in the 2nd or 3rd round...You love Ryan Matthews? take him at 2.02The point is, cheat sheets, expert opinions, and ADP's are just guides, and sometimes you just need to throw them away and pick who you want.

 

[shnikies]

The only reach in fantasy football is one in which you draft a player you could have gotten with your next pick. If it's your pick and you want a guy that you think most likely wont be there for your next pick then draft him without reservations. If someone laughs at you just laugh back, it'll confuse them.

Sorry, I didn't realize I was basically repeating what previous poster said.

 

[The Jerk]

VALUE can be overrated. Getting the best players a round early is better than getting lesser players at the so-called proper time.

Of course, this is all relative. As an earlier poster said, you don't want to lose a player by waiting too long, but you don't want to get a player too early when you could have waited another round. So it's a tough call. It all comes down to knowing when to pull the trigger. Personally, it's rarely helpful for me to fall in love with a specific player. In addition, I always have contingency plans available for what I need to do with mid-to-late round picks to address the positions in which I feel I am weakest. It doesn't take too long to consider what QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have reasonable upside and can be had late in virtually every league. If you are confident that you can snag a RB with a good shot to finish top 15 in the 5th round, or a TE who can be a mid-TE1 in the 8th/9th round, then you are more free to wait on the "value" to come to you.

 

[VaTerp]

I agree with what others are saying. In my book it's only a reach if the guy would have been there at your next pick so if the guy you want is there and he's not gonna make it back go for it.

I pick from the #1 spot on Monday and the thing I hate about the corners is that it does make you reach more. But in the end, it's about getting the guys you want. It's funny that us FF folks become so tied to "value" and ADP even though we know pre-season list of these things are ALWAYS off to a great extent.

 

[The Jerk]

I agree with what others are saying. In my book it's only a reach if the guy would have been there at your next pick so if the guy you want is there and he's not gonna make it back go for it.

I pick from the #1 spot on Monday and the thing I hate about the corners is that it does make you reach more. But in the end, it's about getting the guys you want. It's funny that us FF folks become so tied to "value" and ADP even though we know pre-season list of these things are ALWAYS off to a great extent.

Great point. I've been guilty of this some years, and frankly, when push comes to shove, I'd rather be a round too early than a round too late. Last year, I waited a round too late on Vincent Jackson and regretted it all season.One point about ADP. Too many people follow ADP way too closely. It's called average for a reason. All it takes is one owner to also like a guy early for a player you are targeting to go elsewhere. If some player goes ridiculously early, then no harm done. But waiting for the 6th round because ADP says so can mean that a given player ends up on another roster in the 5th round. And that's not a surprise as for every league where that player goes earlier than ADP, there's another league in which that player goes later than ADP.

Now, factor in what multiple posters have already said about being on the edge meaning some players have to be taken earlier... and you can see another significant aspect of drafting that contributes to how ADP is unreliable in any ONE draft.

 

[Toads]

Usually (if there is such a thing), your first four players (three in 14-16 teamers) are your studs. Usually, the first rounds of your draft are "wrote" (or close to it) as far as players within their positions falling off the board.

Where ADP comes in handy is trying to find a underated RB in RD #7-#8 or a #3 WR in rounds #5-#6. That's where the DD comes in handy as it keeps track of the # of RB's, WR's, TE's and QB's that are falling off the board.

Now, if you are trying to snag that ace rookie RB in the 7th, you've gotta plan to be able to take advantage of that opportunity, if it presents it's self:

1) keep track ot the RB/WR mix: if your draft is running a 30 RB and 25 WR ratio, for instance, as you get to the 6th round (or, what ever the mix is....you are looking for ratios), that indicates that there's some good values at WR and the WR's are probably going to close that gap as you look forward and plan. If it's the opposite mix/ratio, same analogy....good value at RB and they are going to begin to fall.

2) plan your "odd out" positions (QB, TE) to fall around your targeted pick, and

3) develop your back up plan: if your man isn't there, then what? The ideal position is that the draft position you've targeted has more than one option.

4) plan bye weeks accordingly so as to "unblock" the bye week mess and allow for your plan to succeed. If you are targeting and having a BU plan, make sure that your not loading up on bye week conflicts before your targeted pick arrives.

Now, if you're in a live draft on a 30 second timer, the DD doesn't work so you'll have to keep track of these variables manually.

ADP works for you if you allow it to....and plan ahead.