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How good will the NFC West be this season? (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Anarchy99

Footballguy
In yesterday's USA Today, they listed their projected records for all teams for the upcoming season (subject to revision as the season got closer).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2014/06/02/2014-season-record-projections-playoffs-seahawks-colts/9767615/

They had the NFC West as follows:

SEA 12-4

SF 11-5

ARI 10-6

STL 10-6

(Only SEA and SF made the playoffs.)

Doing the math, that would make the division 43-21 overall. Given that there are 12 divisional games, by extension, that means out of division the NFC West would have to go 31-9 (.775) on the season.

Is the NFC West really THAT good and will they play nearly .800 football against the rest of the NFL?

 
We see this every year. Last year's dominant division is next year's middle of the pack or even dormat division.

I'll take the under on 43 division wins.

 
I saw that article this AM. Pretty unrealistic honestly. Injuries, sudden aging and underperformance where it isn't expected, fluke stuff, etc., all play a part in teams' final records. And 8 of the 40 non-division games, or 20%, are against DEN and SD, no pushovers.

I will predict they are better than the AFC South, going waaaaay out on a limb on that one, haha, but I'm just about equally as confident they won't go 31-9 against non-division opponents. The next time a 4th place team in a division is 10-6 will be the first time. Ain't happening.

 
Losing Washington is huge for the Cardinals. It could cost them a couple wins this year.

 
NFC West was .750 out of the division last year (I think tied-second best since the merger and tied-first since realignment), and that with STL going 7-9.

A lot of teams improved, but STL and SF seemed to receive near universal praise for their drafts. STL added Robinson, Donald, Joyner and Mason.

I was going to mention Washington (and Dansby) hurting the defense, but ARI gets top 10 guard Cooper back and added Veldheer, so should be improved on offense. SF will miss Bowman for probably a half season or more, and with Aldon Smith, it is not a matter of if, but how much time he will miss.

A lot of teams had injuries, but STL lost their starting QB for more than half the season.

Other teams that had injuries generally weren't as good as SEA and SF, and key WRs Harvin and Crabtree appear healthy to start the season. SF also acquired Stevie Johnson.

SEA has the best home field advantage in the NFL. With SF (three straight NFC championships) also being one of the top few teams in the league, what other division has two teams as strong? So that is a signicant headstart when it comes to stacking up the respective divisions, ARI looks ascendant and STL could be an up and coming team in year three of the Fisher/Snead rebuild.

That said, 10 wins seems difficult for STL (still the youngest team in the league for the third year in a row), but SEA and SF could compensate by exceeding their projections. Though SOMEBODY will have to lose when the NFC West plays each other, there should be some serious divisional tilts this year that will make the riot scenes in Gangs of New York look like a meditation retreat at Esalen in comparison.

 
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It will be very tough and unlikely for the division to reach this record overall but each team could easily hit the projections.

The rams are underrated by most imo.

 
Bruce Hammond said:
I saw that article this AM. Pretty unrealistic honestly. Injuries, sudden aging and underperformance where it isn't expected, fluke stuff, etc., all play a part in teams' final records. And 8 of the 40 non-division games, or 20%, are against DEN and SD, no pushovers.

I will predict they are better than the AFC South, going waaaaay out on a limb on that one, haha, but I'm just about equally as confident they won't go 31-9 against non-division opponents. The next time a 4th place team in a division is 10-6 will be the first time. Ain't happening.
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I will note that, since realignment, one division has come remarkably close. All four teams finished over .500, and the division as a whole went 30-10 in non-division games. And I suspect the vast majority would have no clue which division it was. I know I had certainly forgotten all about it. Still, it's one thing to note that an outcome is possible and has been approached once or twice in the past 15 seasons or so, and it's another thing entirely to predict that it will actually happen. Might as well predict that Drew Brees will throw for 5700 yards. Clearly it's within the realm of possibility, but certainly not of probability.

 
These projections just reflect the human tendency to think two things:

1) What happened last year is what will happen this year.

2) If Todd and Mel liked our off-season, our record will be way better.

Doesn't really play out like that in real life. Especially in football, where you know with 100% certainty lots of players will get hurt every year. Even if you accept that these are the probable records for all four of these teams if "all goes well," what are the odds that all four of these teams manage to avoid losing key personnel for extended periods? You don't have to fall into the trap of trying to predict injuries to know that an entire division isn't likely to keep its best players healthy.

All across the league, huge new additions will underperform; reliable stars will disappoint; opponents you expect nothing from will rise up and surprise, etc. It's a lot to ask in a league with so much variance for an entire division to go 10-6 or better. Any given season, a strong team with high aspirations can turn into Atlanta 2013.

 
Freelove said:
These projections just reflect the human tendency to think two things:

1) What happened last year is what will happen this year.

2) If Todd and Mel liked our off-season, our record will be way better.

Doesn't really play out like that in real life. Especially in football, where you know with 100% certainty lots of players will get hurt every year. Even if you accept that these are the probable records for all four of these teams if "all goes well," what are the odds that all four of these teams manage to avoid losing key personnel for extended periods? You don't have to fall into the trap of trying to predict injuries to know that an entire division isn't likely to keep its best players healthy.

All across the league, huge new additions will underperform; reliable stars will disappoint; opponents you expect nothing from will rise up and surprise, etc. It's a lot to ask in a league with so much variance for an entire division to go 10-6 or better. Any given season, a strong team with high aspirations can turn into Atlanta 2013.
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But it isn't just last year, SF has made it to the conference championship game three years in a row, and the Super Bowl two years ago, and SEA has been good for a few years, and won the Super Bowl last year.

Injuries can strike unexpectedly, but Wilson is so smart that he seems to be more likely to evade injury. I like his chances to improve more than plateau, let alone regress, he looks like an ascendant player.

The NFC West did lose key players to injury last year (Harvin, Crabtree, Bradford, Cooper). Harvin and Crabtree are definitely among their respective team's best offensive players, they would make just about any team better by returning this year.

As noted, ARI and SF will be missing some important pieces on defense for part or all of the year, so that could prove problematic.

 
Bob Magaw said:
Freelove said:
These projections just reflect the human tendency to think two things:

1) What happened last year is what will happen this year.

2) If Todd and Mel liked our off-season, our record will be way better.

Doesn't really play out like that in real life. Especially in football, where you know with 100% certainty lots of players will get hurt every year. Even if you accept that these are the probable records for all four of these teams if "all goes well," what are the odds that all four of these teams manage to avoid losing key personnel for extended periods? You don't have to fall into the trap of trying to predict injuries to know that an entire division isn't likely to keep its best players healthy.

All across the league, huge new additions will underperform; reliable stars will disappoint; opponents you expect nothing from will rise up and surprise, etc. It's a lot to ask in a league with so much variance for an entire division to go 10-6 or better. Any given season, a strong team with high aspirations can turn into Atlanta 2013.
Click to expand...
But it isn't just last year, SF has made it to the conference championship game three years in a row, and the Super Bowl two years ago, and SEA has been good for a few years, and won the Super Bowl last year.

Injuries can strike unexpectedly, but Wilson is so smart that he seems to be more likely to evade injury. I like his chances to improve more than plateau, let alone regress, he looks like an ascendant player.

The NFC West did lose key players to injury last year (Harvin, Crabtree, Bradford, Cooper). Harvin and Crabtree are definitely among their respective team's best offensive players, they would make just about any team better by returning this year.

As noted, ARI and SF will be missing some important pieces on defense for part or all of the year, so that could prove problematic.
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I think this is where we see the drop...with that said, looking at the results "as a Division", if they can maintain outside of the division and win, it really does not matter whether SEA sweeps, splits, etc. against them, since the wins and losses are split anyways.

 
The division will not finish with that strong of a record. Well, it's at least highly unlikely. The truth of the matter is that the teams in the NFCW do have the potential to pull that off. On paper, they have to be the clear beys division in football. Unfortunately football isn't played on paper.

To me it's understandable to project the teams to all finish so strongly given what we know today. Sea is the defending Champs, SF was arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL last year, Arz missed the playoffs winning 10 games and St. L had perhaps the best offseason of any team this year. I fully understand the optimism. Things will happen to derail such a season though and I don't think people putting out projections can realistically factor that in. It's like factoring injuries to your fantasy projections. The chances are good that at least 1 team has a significant injury that puts them in a bad spot. Maybe a star player just regresses? Maybe Sea gets complacent after a Title run? Maybe an aging vet falls off the cliff. A lot can go wrong that simply can't be forecasted.

 
I gotta be honest, from a fantasy perspective I am scared to death of every skill position player in this division. Right off the bat, there are five games out of 15 (not counting week 17) against tough defenses on the schedule. Then there's a good chance they will each face at least two non-division teams who are good defensively. So now you're looking at half the games for Kap, Gore, Crabtree, Wilson, Lynch, Harvin, Bradford, Stacy, Austin, Palmer, Ellington, Fitz, Floyd, et al, being against difficult defensive matchups. I'm not exactly excited about that prospect.

Don't get me wrong; if one of those players represents good value, you take them. But if all things are equal between a player in the NFC West and a player from another division, it's enough to be a tie-breaking factor for me in making the decision.

And if you happen to play a W17 title game, it's even worse. They all play each other.

 
Seattle got really lucky last year, and they are going to be exposed this year. Green Bay is going to show them what a true championship team looks like in week 1.

 
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While I'd take the under, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the NFC West hit that record. There's no single team that I look at those projections and doubt the chances of one of them reaching it.

 
So just to update:

SEA looks awesome, surprising nobody.

SF has concerns over Crabtree, and has seen their defense decimated for at least the first half of the season by injuries and suspension.

ARZ's defense has been hit at least as hard, and now they're facing what appears to be at least a month without Ellington.

STL lost Bradford to the latest in a long line of season ending injuries.

I said above that I thought those records were optimistic just based on the fact that it was unlikely every team would roll double sixes again. But snake eyes seem to have bitten the NFCW early this year.

I don't think it's the best division, or even necessarily the strongest defensive division in the league any longer. They could still all win ten, I suppose, but to my eyes, it looks really unlikely at this point.

 
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Niners could very possibly get off to a slow start. Last time I counted they're missing 6 starters from last season on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looked pretty putrid to begin the season and the right side of the oline is in a state of flux. I wouldn't be suprised to see them hover around .500 and finally get their act together in midseason.

Rams and Cards lost key players on offense and will likely disappoint the pundits banking on improvement from last season.

Seattle thus far seems like the surest best to repeat their success from last season, but could complacency creep into their psyche after early success?

One thing that the NFC west DOES have going for them is that they're matched up against the NFC East and AFC west. I don't see any team in these divisions that can matchup with the physicality of the NFC West.

 
chinawildman said:
Niners could very possibly get off to a slow start. Last time I counted they're missing 6 starters from last season on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looked pretty putrid to begin the season and the right side of the oline is in a state of flux. I wouldn't be suprised to see them hover around .500 and finally get their act together in midseason.

Rams and Cards lost key players on offense and will likely disappoint the pundits banking on improvement from last season.

Seattle thus far seems like the surest best to repeat their success from last season, but could complacency creep into their psyche after early success?

One thing that the NFC west DOES have going for them is that they're matched up against the NFC East and AFC west. I don't see any team in these divisions that can matchup with the physicality of the NFC West.
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Chiefs are probably, physically, closest. I don't see the teams other than Seattle stopping Peyton and it will be interesting to see how the new Denver d does.

 
Everyone knows the NFC East is the best* division. I'm cereal too.

Best = high scoring shoot outs because no way can play defense with a crap

 
Right now, I'm cautiously on board with calling the NFC South the best defensive division in the league, despite the Falcons. Cuz three out of four ain't bad. Also strikes me as the division with the greatest likelihood of four teams vying for .500 or better.

AFC North kind of a wildcard on the defensive front. Lots of young guys in key roles there, but not a defensive turd anywhere in that punchbowl, unless the Eagles were onto something against PIT (I'm skeptical). Have to wait and see.

Tentatively calling the NFC West third best bunch of bruisers at this point, since SEA and STL should still be daunting, and SF still packs late season potential.

 
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