How high do you bump Holmes if you haven't drafted yet, (1 Viewer)

[tomarken]

That may sounds stupid to many of you, but them's the rules by which the RotoBowl operates. I'm participating in the live Atlantic City draft tomorrow, and any players from last night's game can be drafted and inserted into your week one starting lineup.

It's fairly standard PPR scoring, so Santonio Holmes scored 28.1 points last night (9 catches, 131 yards, TD).

It's an 11 week regular season, and you get 2 "victory points" for a head-to-head win and 1 victory point for being one of the top six scorers in the league each week.

This isn't a "who should I draft" or whatever, and IBT "don't overreact to one week", etc. I'm talking general strategy for this type of league - how valuable is a single win? Note that I don't care where you think Holmes should have been drafted before last night - how much higher would you consider drafting Holmes now, knowing that you have a guaranteed 28+ points in your lineup this week? Is it worth it to reach for him, just for that security for one week?

On the flip side, would you let the game influence how you treat Chris Johnson? Would you pass on him now, solely because you know if you draft him early you're guaranteed a relative "dud" from your first round pick this week? If you did draft him, would you even start him or roll the dice with your RBs 2 and 3?

 

[milo66]

Hey, I'm in that Atlantic City RotoBowl draft, too. Good luck to ya.

I'm in three leagues this year, counting RotoBowl, and I have Santonio Holmes in the two leagues I've already drafted in. I was really high on Santonio going in this year, and I had him in the middle of my third WR tier (9 Bowe, 10 Colston, 11 Welker, 12 Holmes, 13 Ochocinco, 13 Marshall, 14 DeSean Jackson), and I got him at 6.10 in one (dumb) league and 5.3 in a high-stakes league.

Now, I see I'm going to have to go higher tomorrow. How high would I go? I'm in the ten spot, so I'm looking at 3.10, 4.3, 5.10, and 6.3. I REALLY don't want to go 3.10 (and probably won't). I jump at 4.3, though.

Roethlisberger threw the ball 43 times last night. Holmes looked great. Good hands, good awareness in traffic, he can run a fly, and has great body control. And Roethlisberger is always looking for him.

I'm a little sorry the story on him is common knowledge now.

What number league are you in?

 

[Kenny Powers]

hes a 5th rounder

 

[Crippler]

I think he is a 4th rounder before draft and is now in PPR leagues.

I know I had a deal in place in one league I was in for Ronnie Brown for the 4.9 plus if Holmes lasted that far but he went 4.8. I think he will go early 4th and might sneak up to late 3rd in such leagues like WCOFF in the end with the WR theory going on in most PPR leagues right now. It is RB's that drop

 

[milo66]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

 

[tomarken]

Good luck tomorrow! Unless you're in my league.

I've also owned him in other leagues before and was pretty high on him this year. I have the #6 pick so I'd be looking at 3.06, 4.07, 5.06. In the online drafts that happened on Tuesday and Wednesday, he went anywhere from 4.08 to 6.12, mostly clustered between the mid-5th and mid-6th. He won't fall to 5.06 now, which is where I wanted to get him, but if he's still there at 4.07 I'm all over it. I can't go as high as 3.06 though, that's just too much of a reach. (Or is it?)

I'm not really in the market for Chris Johnson unless he falls to the mid 2nd (the latest he went this week was 2.04), but my friend has the 8th overall pick in his league and Johnson was one of the players he was possibly targeting. Not that last night would really scare him away, but it does kind of suck taking a guy in the late first/early second knowing that in week one you either have to bench him, or take a guaranteed 7 points or so.

I imagine with the 10 slot you were looking at CJ with potentially one of your first two picks, does this change your thinking at all?

 

[Kenny Powers]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

 

[tomarken]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

You don't think an extra ~50 points a year makes a difference?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

You don't think an extra ~50 points a year makes a difference?

You realize that the whole PPR thing means all players get points for their receptions, and not just Holmes, right?

 

[milo66]

No, I agree, I wouldn't go as high as 3.06. Pittsburgh still has Baltimore twice, plus every good team in the NFC North (Minn, Chi, GB) and San Diego, too, so their point-scoring ceiling isn't high. Still, though, Holmes looks like a second tier (S.Smith, G. Jennings, Wayne, Roddy White) breakout talent to me this year, and a weekly 7, 8, or 9 reception guy, even if he doesn't score every week. (Again, 43 passes! I can remember games when Ben threw 18 passes.)

CJ? If he's there at 1.10, I'm probably looking at Andre Johnson, Moss, Forte maybe, LT maybe. 1.10's a weird spot this year, in a PPR. One reception for 11 yards (yes, I know, against the Steelers) doesn't fill me with confidence. 15 carries vs. 8 for LenDale. Maybe I hope CJ drops to 2.03.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

You don't think an extra ~50 points a year makes a difference?

You realize that the whole PPR thing means all players get points for their receptions, and not just Holmes, right?

My point exactly. If anything, I think PPR might decrease Holmes' value because he doesnt get a lot of catches comparatively

 

[milo66]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

Yes, sir, I understand that. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm taking a calculated risk, and saying he blows up this year. That's my feeling. Maybe he won't. Maybe last year's Top 8 receivers will be this year's Top 8 receivers.

 

[Kenny Powers]

No, I agree, I wouldn't go as high as 3.06. Pittsburgh still has Baltimore twice, plus every good team in the NFC North (Minn, Chi, GB) and San Diego, too, so their point-scoring ceiling isn't high. Still, though, Holmes looks like a second tier (S.Smith, G. Jennings, Wayne, Roddy White) breakout talent to me this year, and a weekly 7, 8, or 9 reception guy, even if he doesn't score every week. (Again, 43 passes! I can remember games when Ben threw 18 passes.)

If you think Holmes will produce like these guys, he's not. I think he's arguably as talented as all of them, but besides Wayne, none of those guys are in offenses with as many weapons as Pittsburgh. And you cant expect 40 attempts/game from Roeth.

I like Holmes, Ive had his jersey since he was a rookie, but Im just trying to temper your expectations back to reality.

I would be ecstatic if Holmes has a huge year, but I see around 1100 and 9 as his ceiling. Thats about those 4 guys you listed floor point-wise, and they all will get more receptions than Holmes.

 

[tomarken]

Yeah, I should clarify, RotoBowl is PPR. Holmes is not a 4th-rounder in a non-PPR.

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

You don't think an extra ~50 points a year makes a difference?

You realize that the whole PPR thing means all players get points for their receptions, and not just Holmes, right?

My point exactly. If anything, I think PPR might decrease Holmes' value because he doesnt get a lot of catches comparatively

Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

An extra 50 points for WR20 could absolutely move him up a round in the draft, comparative to the other positions you would otherwise draft in that spot (e.g. RBs and QBs). I'm surprised more than one FBG don't understand that.

ETA: I just changed the scoring in Draft Dominator for my Rotobowl league from 1 PPR to 0 PPR. Left everything else exactly the same. Holmes fell from 52 overall to 79 overall. So that's actually two rounds worth of value.

 

[milo66]

No, I agree, I wouldn't go as high as 3.06. Pittsburgh still has Baltimore twice, plus every good team in the NFC North (Minn, Chi, GB) and San Diego, too, so their point-scoring ceiling isn't high. Still, though, Holmes looks like a second tier (S.Smith, G. Jennings, Wayne, Roddy White) breakout talent to me this year, and a weekly 7, 8, or 9 reception guy, even if he doesn't score every week. (Again, 43 passes! I can remember games when Ben threw 18 passes.)

If you think Holmes will produce like these guys, he's not. I think he's arguably as talented as all of them, but besides Wayne, none of those guys are in offenses with as many weapons as Pittsburgh. And you cant expect 40 attempts/game from Roeth.

I like Holmes, Ive had his jersey since he was a rookie, but Im just trying to temper your expectations back to reality.

I would be ecstatic if Holmes has a huge year, but I see around 1100 and 9 as his ceiling. Thats about those 4 guys you listed floor point-wise, and they all will get more receptions than Holmes.

Point taken, Kenny. I'm not drafting Holmes in that 2nd-to-3rd round area where Jennings-White-Wayne-Smith are going, but I believe he gets there for 2010 Fantasy drafts. I'm delighted with him at the 5.3 and 6.10 spots where I've gotten him up to now.

If Eli Manning doesn't collapse like a wet paper bag at home to Philly in last year's playoffs, the Giants easily punch out the Cards at frigid Giants Stadium last year, and that Super Bowl, Pitt V NYG is a game for the ages. Didn't happen though, and good one for the Steelers.

Good luck this year.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

An extra 50 points for WR20 could absolutely move him up a round in the draft, comparative to the other positions you would otherwise draft in that spot (e.g. RBs and QBs). I'm surprised more than one FBG don't understand that.

ETA: I just changed the scoring in Draft Dominator for my Rotobowl league from 1 PPR to 0 PPR. Left everything else exactly the same. Holmes fell from 52 overall to 79 overall. So that's actually two rounds worth of value.

Comparatively to other Top 30 WR's. Im not going to crunch #'s here, but 50 catches is not a lot for a WR you plan on having as your #2, or even #3.He gets drafted around guys like Royal (91 catches last year) and Housh (90+ the last 3 years). 50 catches isnt helping him

 

[Kenny Powers]

No, I agree, I wouldn't go as high as 3.06. Pittsburgh still has Baltimore twice, plus every good team in the NFC North (Minn, Chi, GB) and San Diego, too, so their point-scoring ceiling isn't high. Still, though, Holmes looks like a second tier (S.Smith, G. Jennings, Wayne, Roddy White) breakout talent to me this year, and a weekly 7, 8, or 9 reception guy, even if he doesn't score every week. (Again, 43 passes! I can remember games when Ben threw 18 passes.)

If you think Holmes will produce like these guys, he's not. I think he's arguably as talented as all of them, but besides Wayne, none of those guys are in offenses with as many weapons as Pittsburgh. And you cant expect 40 attempts/game from Roeth.

I like Holmes, Ive had his jersey since he was a rookie, but Im just trying to temper your expectations back to reality.

I would be ecstatic if Holmes has a huge year, but I see around 1100 and 9 as his ceiling. Thats about those 4 guys you listed floor point-wise, and they all will get more receptions than Holmes.

Point taken, Kenny. I'm not drafting Holmes in that 2nd-to-3rd round area where Jennings-White-Wayne-Smith are going, but I believe he gets there for 2010 Fantasy drafts. I'm delighted with him at the 5.3 and 6.10 spots where I've gotten him up to now.



If Eli Manning doesn't collapse like a wet paper bag at home to Philly in last year's playoffs, the Giants easily punch out the Cards at frigid Giants Stadium last year, and that Super Bowl, Pitt V NYG is a game for the ages. Didn't happen though, and good one for the Steelers.

Good luck this year.

Where did this come from?!

 

[tomarken]

Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

An extra 50 points for WR20 could absolutely move him up a round in the draft, comparative to the other positions you would otherwise draft in that spot (e.g. RBs and QBs). I'm surprised more than one FBG don't understand that.

ETA: I just changed the scoring in Draft Dominator for my Rotobowl league from 1 PPR to 0 PPR. Left everything else exactly the same. Holmes fell from 52 overall to 79 overall. So that's actually two rounds worth of value.

Comparatively to other Top 30 WR's. Im not going to crunch #'s here, but 50 catches is not a lot for a WR you plan on having as your #2, or even #3.

He gets drafted around guys like Royal (91 catches last year) and Housh (90+ the last 3 years). 50 catches isnt helping him

Per FBG's Consensus ADP for PPR leagues, Housh = 34, Royal = 43, Holmes = 60. Explain why, all else being equal, adding 1 PPR moves Holmes up from #79 overall to #52 overall according to DD, if those 50 catches add nothing to his value, and according to you actually decrease his value.

(Feel free to make up more stats or something, but keep in mind I will probably look them up.)

 

[Kenny Powers]

Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

An extra 50 points for WR20 could absolutely move him up a round in the draft, comparative to the other positions you would otherwise draft in that spot (e.g. RBs and QBs). I'm surprised more than one FBG don't understand that.

ETA: I just changed the scoring in Draft Dominator for my Rotobowl league from 1 PPR to 0 PPR. Left everything else exactly the same. Holmes fell from 52 overall to 79 overall. So that's actually two rounds worth of value.

Comparatively to other Top 30 WR's. Im not going to crunch #'s here, but 50 catches is not a lot for a WR you plan on having as your #2, or even #3.

He gets drafted around guys like Royal (91 catches last year) and Housh (90+ the last 3 years). 50 catches isnt helping him

Per FBG's Consensus ADP for PPR leagues, Housh = 34, Royal = 43, Holmes = 60. Explain why, all else being equal, adding 1 PPR moves Holmes up from #79 overall to #52 overall according to DD, if those 50 catches add nothing to his value, and according to you actually decrease his value.

(Feel free to make up more stats or something, but keep in mind I will probably look them up.)

Between Royal and Holmes, here are the WR's they have between the 2:Edwards: 55 rec in 08 (80 in 2007)

Anthony Gonzalez: 57 rec in 08 (bigger role this year)

Roy Williams: 63 rec in 07 (in 12 games, clear #1 this yr)

Vince Jackson: 59 rec last year (clear #1 WR)

DeSean Jackson: 62 rec last year (as a rookie)

So when Holmes' career high in receptions is less than all of these guy's most recent typical year, how does that increase his value?

I personally like DeSean Jackson and Gonzalez better than Holmes in this group, but like Holmes better than the other 3.

Holmes ADP according to this is 60. Youre saying youre all over him at 47. Thats nearly a round and a half, that makes a difference.

He might not be a bad pick at 47, but youre also picking him there based on stats he's never produced before.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

I took Holmes at 5.2 in a 16 team league as my WR#2. That's right about where he belongs, IMO.

 

[tomarken]

Between Royal and Holmes, here are the WR's they have between the 2:

Edwards: 55 rec in 08 (80 in 2007)

Anthony Gonzalez: 57 rec in 08 (bigger role this year)

Roy Williams: 63 rec in 07 (in 12 games, clear #1 this yr)

Vince Jackson: 59 rec last year (clear #1 WR)

DeSean Jackson: 62 rec last year (as a rookie)

So when Holmes' career high in receptions is less than all of these guy's most recent typical year, how does that increase his value?

Stop comparing him to other WRs. I already explained it once and won't do it again. Since you seem stuck on it though, I'll repeat: "Explain why, all else being equal, adding 1 PPR moves Holmes up from #79 overall to #52 overall according to DD, if those 50 catches add nothing to his value, and according to you actually decrease his value." Don't bring in other WRs or any other irrelevant information, just answer that quesiton.

Holmes ADP according to this is 60. Youre saying youre all over him at 47. Thats nearly a round and a half, that makes a difference.

He might not be a bad pick at 47, but youre also picking him there based on stats he's never produced before.

And if I did reach for him at 4.07, it would be based on stats he produced last night (please reread the title and/or the first half the thread). Not stats he's never produced before. Aside from picking apart Kenny's silly arguments against the effect of PPR on value, I am still interested in other opinions on the intended topic of this thread - how much do the points Holmes scored last night, which can be used in the week one starting lineup, influence his draft position tomorrow? Is it worth reaching to get guaranteed WR1 production out of your WR2 or WR3 just for one week?

 

[FUBAR]

No, I agree, I wouldn't go as high as 3.06. Pittsburgh still has Baltimore twice, plus every good team in the NFC North (Minn, Chi, GB) and San Diego, too, so their point-scoring ceiling isn't high. Still, though, Holmes looks like a second tier (S.Smith, G. Jennings, Wayne, Roddy White) breakout talent to me this year, and a weekly 7, 8, or 9 reception guy, even if he doesn't score every week. (Again, 43 passes! I can remember games when Ben threw 18 passes.)

If you think Holmes will produce like these guys, he's not. I think he's arguably as talented as all of them, but besides Wayne, none of those guys are in offenses with as many weapons as Pittsburgh. And you cant expect 40 attempts/game from Roeth.

I like Holmes, Ive had his jersey since he was a rookie, but Im just trying to temper your expectations back to reality.

I would be ecstatic if Holmes has a huge year, but I see around 1100 and 9 as his ceiling. Thats about those 4 guys you listed floor point-wise, and they all will get more receptions than Holmes.

gonna have to disagree with you there. Green Bay has better "weapons" than Pittsburgh. They just pass more, so there's more to spread to the WRs. I agree with the rest of your post, so I'm just quibbling.

 

[NF300]

Not to overreact to one game but, if the Steelers run offense is going to be this poor, that should boost Holmes up a bit by itself. Probably Big Ben as well. They were 23rd in rush offense last year and early indications look as if this will not get better, maybe worse.

I could certainly see a scenario like New England (to a lesser extent) where this becomes a pass first offense by neccesity, not design.

If you can guarantee 28 points with Holmes and somehow get Ben as your second QB, it almost gives you a win for week one and a decent chance at points for high score as well. It is a risk, but Holmes in the early fourth is a gamble worth taking, IMO, especially if you can somehow get Ben later. Kind of nice drafting some real game info though

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He's had 49, 52, and 55 receptions his 1st 3 years. I dont think PPR really boosts him up any.

You don't think an extra ~50 points a year makes a difference?

You realize that the whole PPR thing means all players get points for their receptions, and not just Holmes, right?

My point exactly. If anything, I think PPR might decrease Holmes' value because he doesnt get a lot of catches comparatively

:X Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

If he's WR20 without PPR, he is absolutely NOT necessarily WR20 with PPR.Sure, Santonio Holmes got 50 more points for his receptions. Whoopdee-doo.

Derrick Mason got 80 more points.

Santana Moss got 79 more.

Donald Driver got 74 more.

Lance Moore got 79 more.

Jerricho Cotchery got 71 more.

Even the top TEs got more.

These are all guys ranked around or behind Holmes that gain an advantage on him in PPR leagues. And I only just started looking.

Sure, WRs generally move up in PPR leagues, but not when they're 50 catch WRs, not by much at least. Even the RBs around that area often catch nearly that many balls, and the TEs gain on him as well (Dallas Clark had 77 catches).

Adding 50 bonus points doesn't do a whole lot when most of the people around him are getting the same, and many of them are getting significantly more.

 

[KingEl]

i think holmes moves up to 70+ catches...

50 catches is in the past....

 

[Kenny Powers]

Comparatively to what? If he's, say, WR20 without PPR, he's still roughly WR20 with PPR. Do either of you realize that has nothing to do with his draft value?

If he's WR20 without PPR, he is absolutely NOT necessarily WR20 with PPR.Sure, Santonio Holmes got 50 more points for his receptions. Whoopdee-doo.

Derrick Mason got 80 more points.

Santana Moss got 79 more.

Donald Driver got 74 more.

Lance Moore got 79 more.

Jerricho Cotchery got 71 more.

Even the top TEs got more.

These are all guys ranked around or behind Holmes that gain an advantage on him in PPR leagues. And I only just started looking.

Sure, WRs generally move up in PPR leagues, but not when they're 50 catch WRs, not by much at least. Even the RBs around that area often catch nearly that many balls, and the TEs gain on him as well (Dallas Clark had 77 catches).

Adding 50 bonus points doesn't do a whole lot when most of the people around him are getting the same, and many of them are getting significantly more.

TY BagelMy argument isnt "silly" tomarken. I have no idea why he moves up that much in PPR according to DD (which I dont use), my point is there are plenty of players who will catch more balls than him, so this league being PPR does not make him significantly more valuable. PPR makes WR's - IN GENERAL - more valuable, but when you have a guy like Holmes who isnt known to make a lot of catches, the scoring system isnt helping.

 

[plastik]

Adding 50 bonus points doesn't do a whole lot when most of the people around him are getting the same, and many of them are getting significantly more.

The problem with this is that Holmes already has 9 receptions on the year. For him to exceed the '50 bonus points' that you're talking about he'd only need to average 2.8 receptions per game from here on out. Over the last half of 2008 he averaged about 3.7 receptions per game and over 4 in the playoffs. Based on these most recent performances, coupled with the lack of an effective running game, and I think its reasonable to expect him to improve on the yearly reception totals that you keep referencing. I could see Holmes topping out around 70 this year - and the result would have him most likely outplaying his ADP, and if his TD totals rise he could do so by a significant margin. In a ppr league I'd certainly still take players like Housh and Royal over him, but if I were drafting today I'd think hard about Holmes ahead of players like Owens, Braylon, and Santana Moss.

 

[milo66]

Adding 50 bonus points doesn't do a whole lot when most of the people around him are getting the same, and many of them are getting significantly more.

The problem with this is that Holmes already has 9 receptions on the year. For him to exceed the '50 bonus points' that you're talking about he'd only need to average 2.8 receptions per game from here on out. Over the last half of 2008 he averaged about 3.7 receptions per game and over 4 in the playoffs. Based on these most recent performances, coupled with the lack of an effective running game, and I think its reasonable to expect him to improve on the yearly reception totals that you keep referencing. I could see Holmes topping out around 70 this year - and the result would have him most likely outplaying his ADP, and if his TD totals rise he could do so by a significant margin. In a ppr league I'd certainly still take players like Housh and Royal over him, but if I were drafting today I'd think hard about Holmes ahead of players like Owens, Braylon, and Santana Moss.

Well, I guess that's the point. Some people are saying the light has gone on for Santonio and the Pittsburgh offense is morphing to the point where a 43-pass scenario exists in some cases. Every year, some receiver (Wes Welker, Roddy White) goes from mid-level to elite. If you want to suggest that Santonio is always going to be a 50-catch guy, because he has been in the past, then you might as well be suggesting that he'll never get past Plax. We're just speculating about the future, that's all.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Adding 50 bonus points doesn't do a whole lot when most of the people around him are getting the same, and many of them are getting significantly more.

The problem with this is that Holmes already has 9 receptions on the year. For him to exceed the '50 bonus points' that you're talking about he'd only need to average 2.8 receptions per game from here on out. Over the last half of 2008 he averaged about 3.7 receptions per game and over 4 in the playoffs. Based on these most recent performances, coupled with the lack of an effective running game, and I think its reasonable to expect him to improve on the yearly reception totals that you keep referencing. I could see Holmes topping out around 70 this year - and the result would have him most likely outplaying his ADP, and if his TD totals rise he could do so by a significant margin. In a ppr league I'd certainly still take players like Housh and Royal over him, but if I were drafting today I'd think hard about Holmes ahead of players like Owens, Braylon, and Santana Moss.

Well, I guess that's the point. Some people are saying the light has gone on for Santonio and the Pittsburgh offense is morphing to the point where a 43-pass scenario exists in some cases. Every year, some receiver (Wes Welker, Roddy White) goes from mid-level to elite. If you want to suggest that Santonio is always going to be a 50-catch guy, because he has been in the past, then you might as well be suggesting that he'll never get past Plax. We're just speculating about the future, that's all.

Im not sure how Burress relates to Holmes, but Holmes is a decent gamble.Based on what plastik said, Housh and Royal I think are easily better picks than Holmes. I'd def takes Holmes over Braylon or Santana. It when you take Holmes over someone like Owens where you could put yourself in a hole

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

That may sounds stupid to many of you, but them's the rules by which the RotoBowl operates. I'm participating in the live Atlantic City draft tomorrow, and any players from last night's game can be drafted and inserted into your week one starting lineup.

It's fairly standard PPR scoring, so Santonio Holmes scored 28.1 points last night (9 catches, 131 yards, TD).

It's an 11 week regular season, and you get 2 "victory points" for a head-to-head win and 1 victory point for being one of the top six scorers in the league each week.

This isn't a "who should I draft" or whatever, and IBT "don't overreact to one week", etc. I'm talking general strategy for this type of league - how valuable is a single win? Note that I don't care where you think Holmes should have been drafted before last night - how much higher would you consider drafting Holmes now, knowing that you have a guaranteed 28+ points in your lineup this week? Is it worth it to reach for him, just for that security for one week?

On the flip side, would you let the game influence how you treat Chris Johnson? Would you pass on him now, solely because you know if you draft him early you're guaranteed a relative "dud" from your first round pick this week? If you did draft him, would you even start him or roll the dice with your RBs 2 and 3?

I think that being reactionary is a fantasy disaster. Stick to the plan and let somebody else overbid / draft.

 

[BIGGjohnny]

I got him at 4.08 or 44 overall in FFPC. I was shocked he was still there. I was considering him at 3.05 or 29 but went Portis instead.

Kindly

Johnny

 

[two_dollars]

Between Royal and Holmes, here are the WR's they have between the 2:

Edwards: 55 rec in 08 (80 in 2007)

Anthony Gonzalez: 57 rec in 08 (bigger role this year)

Roy Williams: 63 rec in 07 (in 12 games, clear #1 this yr)

Vince Jackson: 59 rec last year (clear #1 WR)

DeSean Jackson: 62 rec last year (as a rookie)

So when Holmes' career high in receptions is less than all of these guy's most recent typical year, how does that increase his value?

Stop comparing him to other WRs. I already explained it once and won't do it again. Since you seem stuck on it though, I'll repeat: "Explain why, all else being equal, adding 1 PPR moves Holmes up from #79 overall to #52 overall according to DD, if those 50 catches add nothing to his value, and according to you actually decrease his value." Don't bring in other WRs or any other irrelevant information, just answer that quesiton.

Holmes ADP according to this is 60. Youre saying youre all over him at 47. Thats nearly a round and a half, that makes a difference.

He might not be a bad pick at 47, but youre also picking him there based on stats he's never produced before.

And if I did reach for him at 4.07, it would be based on stats he produced last night (please reread the title and/or the first half the thread). Not stats he's never produced before. Aside from picking apart Kenny's silly arguments against the effect of PPR on value, I am still interested in other opinions on the intended topic of this thread - how much do the points Holmes scored last night, which can be used in the week one starting lineup, influence his draft position tomorrow? Is it worth reaching to get guaranteed WR1 production out of your WR2 or WR3 just for one week?

I'm not sure you understand how PPR works vs ADP. NOT comparing him to other WR's is what's irrelevant! You're looking at overall rankings. You need to look at WR rankings. ALL WR'S AND PASS CATCHERS ARE GOING TO MOVE UP IN OVERALL PPR RANKINGS VS NON-PPR RANKINGS!!! Did Holmes suddenly go from WR20 to WR15? NO!!!! He was MORE likely to go from WR20 to WR25 because of his low reception total. THAT is why PPR lowers his value!!

 

[Kenny Powers]

^^^

If 1 of us can get OP to understand this facet of PPR, I'll consider my endeavors a success

 

[TwinTurbo]

I got him at 4.08 or 44 overall in FFPC. I was shocked he was still there. I was considering him at 3.05 or 29 but went Portis instead. KindlyJohnny

Holmes went 4.08 in the draft I was in last night as well. I was going to pull the trigger at 4.12 but he didn't make it.

 

[tomarken]

I'm not sure you understand how PPR works vs ADP. NOT comparing him to other WR's is what's irrelevant! You're looking at overall rankings. You need to look at WR rankings. ALL WR'S AND PASS CATCHERS ARE GOING TO MOVE UP IN OVERALL PPR RANKINGS VS NON-PPR RANKINGS!!! Did Holmes suddenly go from WR20 to WR15? NO!!!! He was MORE likely to go from WR20 to WR25 because of his low reception total. THAT is why PPR lowers his value!!

^^^

If 1 of us can get OP to understand this facet of PPR, I'll consider my endeavors a success

More people agreeing with your point <> More validity for your point. Typing in all caps with exclamation points also does not make it more correct. Since the point is incorrect, your endeavors will continue to be a failure.Does any one of you understand the concept of draft value? There are two ways for a guy's value to increase, with everything else being held constant - he can increase his projected point total relative to everyone else at his position (e.g. moving from WR20 to WR15) which is NOT what I'm talking about, despite two_dollars' eloquent misinformation. You can also increase the dropoff in points at a position, relative to every other position. That is the effect of PPR on Santonio Holmes. The addition of PPR, according to DD, moves Holmes from 79 overall value to 52 overall value.

And re: the "I don't use DD lol" rebuttal, I don't care. That's immaterial. DD is a tool that calculates the relative value of players, and it's an acceptable standard for this discussion.

So now that you have even more people backing your point, I'll repeat the question again that has been dismissed so far: Why does the addition of 1 PPR move Holmes from 79 to 52 in DD, if the PPR doesn't increase his value, and according to you it actually decreases his value? (Keep in mind, so you don't all make the same point again, that I'm not saying he moves up 27 spots within the WR rankings.)

Obviously you think there is a serious flaw in DD, so please explain why. Don't give me a list of other WRs or anything else. Just explain the fundamental flaw in the way DD calculates player values - because you're saying PPR should make Holmes's value go down, and DD is making it go way up.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm not sure you understand how PPR works vs ADP. NOT comparing him to other WR's is what's irrelevant! You're looking at overall rankings. You need to look at WR rankings. ALL WR'S AND PASS CATCHERS ARE GOING TO MOVE UP IN OVERALL PPR RANKINGS VS NON-PPR RANKINGS!!! Did Holmes suddenly go from WR20 to WR15? NO!!!! He was MORE likely to go from WR20 to WR25 because of his low reception total. THAT is why PPR lowers his value!!

^^^

If 1 of us can get OP to understand this facet of PPR, I'll consider my endeavors a success

More people agreeing with your point <> More validity for your point. Typing in all caps with exclamation points also does not make it more correct. Since the point is incorrect, your endeavors will continue to be a failure.Does any one of you understand the concept of draft value? There are two ways for a guy's value to increase, with everything else being held constant - he can increase his projected point total relative to everyone else at his position (e.g. moving from WR20 to WR15) which is NOT what I'm talking about, despite two_dollars' eloquent misinformation. You can also increase the dropoff in points at a position, relative to every other position. That is the effect of PPR on Santonio Holmes. The addition of PPR, according to DD, moves Holmes from 79 overall value to 52 overall value.

And re: the "I don't use DD lol" rebuttal, I don't care. That's immaterial. DD is a tool that calculates the relative value of players, and it's an acceptable standard for this discussion.

So now that you have even more people backing your point, I'll repeat the question again that has been dismissed so far: Why does the addition of 1 PPR move Holmes from 79 to 52 in DD, if the PPR doesn't increase his value, and according to you it actually decreases his value? (Keep in mind, so you don't all make the same point again, that I'm not saying he moves up 27 spots within the WR rankings.)

Obviously you think there is a serious flaw in DD, so please explain why. Don't give me a list of other WRs or anything else. Just explain the fundamental flaw in the way DD calculates player values - because you're saying PPR should make Holmes's value go down, and DD is making it go way up.

What is your lineup setting?I assume you're using flex positions which will generally increase the value of a WR or TE when you add PPR. I'm still not sure that Holmes should be making a 27 slot jump.

I figure Holmes should be ranked around WR20; with no PPR, there are 59 other players that rank above the #20 WR (have to figure around 32 of those are RB, 15 QBs and 12 TE?) - which FWIW just seems wrong. With PPR, there are only 32 other players that rank above the #20 WR (probably 20 RB, 6 QBs and 6 TE?) This seems more in line of where I would take him, PPR or not.

 

[aerolaw]

That may sounds stupid to many of you, but them's the rules by which the RotoBowl operates. I'm participating in the live Atlantic City draft tomorrow, and any players from last night's game can be drafted and inserted into your week one starting lineup.

It's fairly standard PPR scoring, so Santonio Holmes scored 28.1 points last night (9 catches, 131 yards, TD).

It's an 11 week regular season, and you get 2 "victory points" for a head-to-head win and 1 victory point for being one of the top six scorers in the league each week.

This isn't a "who should I draft" or whatever, and IBT "don't overreact to one week", etc. I'm talking general strategy for this type of league - how valuable is a single win? Note that I don't care where you think Holmes should have been drafted before last night - how much higher would you consider drafting Holmes now, knowing that you have a guaranteed 28+ points in your lineup this week? Is it worth it to reach for him, just for that security for one week?

On the flip side, would you let the game influence how you treat Chris Johnson? Would you pass on him now, solely because you know if you draft him early you're guaranteed a relative "dud" from your first round pick this week? If you did draft him, would you even start him or roll the dice with your RBs 2 and 3?

We drafted WCOFF last night and we took him at 2:12. 12th receiver off the board. From reading this thread, sounds like the consensus is that it was a big reach. We are very experienced WCOFF players (4th overall,2 league titles in last 3 years.) were able to get Welker with 3:1 and TO at 4:12. we're very pleased the way it worked out, and with Heath Miller in the 14th, have a nice 42 point lead. Early wins in this format are very critical.On the other hand W Parker fell from about a 4th round ADP to 7th round. What do you think about that?

 

[fourd]

That may sounds stupid to many of you, but them's the rules by which the RotoBowl operates. I'm participating in the live Atlantic City draft tomorrow, and any players from last night's game can be drafted and inserted into your week one starting lineup.

It's fairly standard PPR scoring, so Santonio Holmes scored 28.1 points last night (9 catches, 131 yards, TD).

It's an 11 week regular season, and you get 2 "victory points" for a head-to-head win and 1 victory point for being one of the top six scorers in the league each week.

This isn't a "who should I draft" or whatever, and IBT "don't overreact to one week", etc. I'm talking general strategy for this type of league - how valuable is a single win? Note that I don't care where you think Holmes should have been drafted before last night - how much higher would you consider drafting Holmes now, knowing that you have a guaranteed 28+ points in your lineup this week? Is it worth it to reach for him, just for that security for one week?

On the flip side, would you let the game influence how you treat Chris Johnson? Would you pass on him now, solely because you know if you draft him early you're guaranteed a relative "dud" from your first round pick this week? If you did draft him, would you even start him or roll the dice with your RBs 2 and 3?

We drafted WCOFF last night and we took him at 2:12. 12th receiver off the board. From reading this thread, sounds like the consensus is that it was a big reach. We are very experienced WCOFF players (4th overall,2 league titles in last 3 years.) were able to get Welker with 3:1 and TO at 4:12. we're very pleased the way it worked out, and with Heath Miller in the 14th, have a nice 42 point lead. Early wins in this format are very critical.On the other hand W Parker fell from about a 4th round ADP to 7th round. What do you think about that?

I think a lot of the people on this thread don't understand how important it is to start hot in an 11-week regular season and a player like Holmes, where you get to plug in his 28.1, does that. BTW, took Holmes at 3.11 in my FFPC draft last night.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I'm not sure you understand how PPR works vs ADP. NOT comparing him to other WR's is what's irrelevant! You're looking at overall rankings. You need to look at WR rankings. ALL WR'S AND PASS CATCHERS ARE GOING TO MOVE UP IN OVERALL PPR RANKINGS VS NON-PPR RANKINGS!!! Did Holmes suddenly go from WR20 to WR15? NO!!!! He was MORE likely to go from WR20 to WR25 because of his low reception total. THAT is why PPR lowers his value!!

^^^

If 1 of us can get OP to understand this facet of PPR, I'll consider my endeavors a success

More people agreeing with your point <> More validity for your point. Typing in all caps with exclamation points also does not make it more correct. Since the point is incorrect, your endeavors will continue to be a failure.Does any one of you understand the concept of draft value? There are two ways for a guy's value to increase, with everything else being held constant - he can increase his projected point total relative to everyone else at his position (e.g. moving from WR20 to WR15) which is NOT what I'm talking about, despite two_dollars' eloquent misinformation. You can also increase the dropoff in points at a position, relative to every other position. That is the effect of PPR on Santonio Holmes. The addition of PPR, according to DD, moves Holmes from 79 overall value to 52 overall value.

And re: the "I don't use DD lol" rebuttal, I don't care. That's immaterial. DD is a tool that calculates the relative value of players, and it's an acceptable standard for this discussion.

So now that you have even more people backing your point, I'll repeat the question again that has been dismissed so far: Why does the addition of 1 PPR move Holmes from 79 to 52 in DD, if the PPR doesn't increase his value, and according to you it actually decreases his value? (Keep in mind, so you don't all make the same point again, that I'm not saying he moves up 27 spots within the WR rankings.)

Obviously you think there is a serious flaw in DD, so please explain why. Don't give me a list of other WRs or anything else. Just explain the fundamental flaw in the way DD calculates player values - because you're saying PPR should make Holmes's value go down, and DD is making it go way up.

Ok, Holmes moves up from 79 to 52 in PPR because:-QBs are dropping because they lose value (and this is a range where quite a few QBs will go)

-RBs who dont get many receptions are dropping because they lose value

Still, that jump seems like too much to me.

When you look at Dodds/Joe's rankings, Holmes is ranked 43th overall in non-PPR, and 58th in PPR. When you use all the experts rankings, he is 54th overall in non-PPR, and 57th in PPR

Based on that, I dont see how Holmes becomes more significantly more valuable in PPR. Even these guru's rankings are telling me that he slides overall in the rankings.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Steelers' Holmes shines under NFL spotlight

Saturday, September 12, 2009

By Ron Cook, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

A Michael Vick No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles jersey did what the Tennessee Titans' defense couldn't do Thursday night.

It covered Santonio Holmes.

We can spend the weekend debating the merits of Holmes' postgame attire and his showy public support of the NFL's most notorious dog-killing felon, but this point is inarguable: The Steelers' young wide receiver has turned into a star.

Seriously, Vick might want to be trendy and start wearing Holmes' No. 10 jersey.

"Santonio is a different player," teammate Hines Ward said this week. "The light has come on for him."

Certainly, the bright lights are shining on Holmes these days. I'm talking about the brightest lights that the NFL has to offer.

They zeroed in on Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII in February when he made a spectacular catch for the winning touchdown in a 27-23 victory against the Arizona Cardinals. That 6-yard reception with 35 seconds to go, along with his eight other catches for 125 yards that night, earned him membership in one of the most exclusive clubs in sports -- the Super Bowl MVP club. He became just the 38th member.

"I don't think there's any question that game made him a better, more confident player," Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said.

The bright lights were back on Holmes when the Steelers and Titans opened the new season at Heinz Field. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger aside, he was the best offensive player on the lawn. On a night the Steelers did squat with their running game, they needed all of his nine catches for 131 yards and a touchdown to squeak out a 13-10 win in overtime.

Super Bowl hangover?

What Super Bowl hangover?

"My confidence is sky-high," Holmes said, echoing Arians. "I have no fear of anyone or anything on the field. I'm on fire right now."

It certainly looked as if the Titans' defenders were afraid to get too close to Holmes because of the potential for serious burns and permanent scars. Safety Michael Griffin was nowhere near him on his 34-yard touchdown catch late in the second quarter. Cornerback Nick Harper wasn't much closer when Roethlisberger threw an 11-yard slant to him on third-and-1 in overtime three plays before kicker Jeff Reed booted the pig through the uprights for the winning field goal.

"He didn't even practice for 2 1/2 weeks [because of a minor back problem]," Arians said of Holmes. "I was a little worried the speed of this first game would be a problem for him. Shows what I know."

Good thing Roethlisberger knew better.

"He's my guy and I'm his guy," Holmes gushed. "He always comes to me and says, 'You've got to make plays for me. I'm going to keep coming to you.' "

Can you blame Roethlisberger?

After the two took their place in Super Bowl lore with that play for the ages to beat the Cardinals?

If your glass is half-empty, you're probably thinking Roethlisberger is cursed to be playing behind an offensive line that did nothing against the Titans to ease the simmering concerns about it. The pass protection was mostly OK -- when your quarterback heaves it 43 times, you're going to give up a few sacks and hurries -- but the run blocking was abysmal. The line couldn't budge the Titans' pile all night. The Steelers ran for just 36 yards, a lame 19 on 13 carries by Willie Parker.

But if you are a half-full person, you have to be thinking Roethlisberger is blessed to have such terrific receivers. Besides Holmes, there's Ward (8 catches for 103 yards against the Titans), who is headed to the Hall of Fame. There's tight end Heath Miller (8 for 64), who might be the most reliable player in the NFL. There's running back Mewelde Moore (4 for 28), always a favorite target on third downs. There's even rookie Mike Wallace, who appears to have moved ahead of Limas Sweed as the No. 3 wideout and caught a 22-yard pass to set up Reed's winning kick.

Choices, choices, wonderful choices.

Roethlisberger needed to use all of 'em to beat the Titans.

He completed 33 of those 43 passes for 363 yards, giving the Steelers a 300-yard passer and two 100-yard receivers in the same game for the first time in five years.

Of course, it's nice to think the Steelers won't have to throw the ball 43 times every game. If they do, they won't win another Super Bowl. As Ward put it, "We're always going to be a running team." The good news is the line will make adjustments and be better, hopefully before the next game Sept. 20 at Chicago. The better news is few defenses in the league will be as formidable as the Titans' defense, which Roethlisberger described as "Baltimore-esq."

Still, isn't it great to know the Steelers have Roethlisberger for those games when they can't run the ball? "When rubber meets the road, he's at his best," coach Mike Tomlin said. "In those moments, he sees [the field] with great clarity."

And isn't it comforting to know the Steelers have those receivers? Especially Holmes, who looks to be the franchise's next great one? I'm thinking Roethlisberger will play an awful lot of pitch-and-catch with him this season.

It seems only right that the No. 10 Steelers jersey is going to be a really big seller.

No. 10 is a really good player.

"I have no fear of anyone or anything on the field. I'm on fire right now." -- Santonio Holmes

Ron Cook can be reached at rcook@post-gazette.com.

First published on September 12, 2009 at 12:00 am

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09255/99748...m#ixzz0QufwJqGM

 

[tomarken]

Holmes went at 4.04.

But I got Chris Johnson at 2.07.

And I grabbed Mike Bell in the 12th to start in his place this week.

 

[milo66]

Santonio was still there at 4.03, but I ended up grabbing Brandon Marshall at that spot.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Both of you made some good moves and nice picks

 

[FUBAR]

Holmes went at 4.04.

But I got Chris Johnson at 2.07.

And I grabbed Mike Bell in the 12th to start in his place this week.

now that's some nice taking advantage of overreaction