How important are QBs in the playoffs? (1 Viewer)

[Frenchy Fuqua]

FWIW...2007 Playoff QB Ratings

QB Rating of AFC Winners (Manningx2 & Bradyx2): 67.7

QB Rating of AFC Losers (McNair, Rivers, Green, Pennington/Ramsey): 60.6

QB Rating of All AFC QB in playoffs: 64.5

QB Rating of NFC Winners (Hasselbeck, Garcia, Brees & Grossman): 74.0

QB Rating of NFC Losers (Romo, Eli, Garcia & Hasselbeck): 82.7

QB Rating of All NFC QB in playoffs: 77.9

QB Rating of NFL Playoff Winners: 70.8

QB Rating of NFL Playoff Losers: 71.4

Winners have thrown 11 INT, Losers have thrown 8. I'd bet that this year is an anomaly but so much for the playoffs coming down to QB play and protecting the football.

 

[videoguy505]

Trent Dilfer has a ring.

 

[Chase Stuart]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4

Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

 

[Bri]

yesterday, I didn't feel neither Brady nor Rivers had a good game.

4th Q, game on the line, get your team in a position to score is a tough position to be in and they both got it done.

The FG didn't work for Kaeding. Brady threw an INT+Brown's strip. There's nothing to sugarcoat here. I'm just saying those two really hung in there with a good attitude even though they were struggling. That's not easy and shows the importance of their play IMO. Team morale often feeds off the QB.

 

[H.K.]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

Just for kicks, can you compare Manning's career rating in the regular season vs. the playoffs?TIA

 

[sinatravolta]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

Just for kicks, can you compare Manning's career rating in the regular season vs. the playoffs?TIA

H.K. - this favorite stat of yours would be a lot better if you also trotted out the average QB rating of playoff team QBs in the regular season vs. postseason. As this postseason shows (although this one is probably more over-the-top than most) - a lot of the QBs who had great QB ratings in the regular season have fared a lot worse in the playoffs. Playoff teams have better D's on average. It stands to reason that QB ratings would be lower in the playoffs. Manning's may have gone down more than others (although it also probably started higher). You need to add the general info of all playoff QB's regular season avg. QB rating vs. their playoff rating if you want your argument to really hold water.

 

[H.K.]

H.K. - this favorite stat of yours would be a lot better if you also trotted out the average QB rating of playoff team QBs in the regular season vs. postseason. As this postseason shows (although this one is probably more over-the-top than most) - a lot of the QBs who had great QB ratings in the regular season have fared a lot worse in the playoffs. Playoff teams have better D's on average. It stands to reason that QB ratings would be lower in the playoffs. Manning's may have gone down more than others (although it also probably started higher). You need to add the general info of all playoff QB's regular season avg. QB rating vs. their playoff rating if you want your argument to really hold water.

I agree with everything you've said. I'd love to see all the playoff QB's compared. I believe the information would be quite telling. Chase provided a very good piece of data for analysis, lets see if people can learn from it, myself included.

 

[sinatravolta]

H.K. - this favorite stat of yours would be a lot better if you also trotted out the average QB rating of playoff team QBs in the regular season vs. postseason. As this postseason shows (although this one is probably more over-the-top than most) - a lot of the QBs who had great QB ratings in the regular season have fared a lot worse in the playoffs. Playoff teams have better D's on average. It stands to reason that QB ratings would be lower in the playoffs. Manning's may have gone down more than others (although it also probably started higher). You need to add the general info of all playoff QB's regular season avg. QB rating vs. their playoff rating if you want your argument to really hold water.

I agree with everything you've said. I'd love to see all the playoff QB's compared. I believe the information would be quite telling. Chase provided a very good piece of data for analysis, lets see if people can learn from it, myself included.

Alright - cool. Well - if I just average the average winning and losing QB ratings over the last 30 years - I get 76.75 as the average QB rating in the playoffs. That was the easy part. Now we just need someone (Chase?) (Doug?) to tell us what the average QB rating was for those same QBs during their regular season. I expect it to be higher. How much higher would then make a good comparison for the Manning situation.I don't really like Manning (don't really dislike him either) - but am still somehow tired of all the Manning-is-a-choker talk. I think the Colts get over the hump this year, but who knows. It is pretty sweet that they get to play New England again for the chance to make the Super Bowl. It would also be very interesting if the Colts somehow won this game the same way they did the last 2 games - with Manning not playing that well and with the D really stepping up (I doubt this will happen against NE).

 

[H.K.]

I don't really like Manning (don't really dislike him either) - but am still somehow tired of all the Manning-is-a-choker talk. I think the Colts get over the hump this year, but who knows. It is pretty sweet that they get to play New England again for the chance to make the Super Bowl. It would also be very interesting if the Colts somehow won this game the same way they did the last 2 games - with Manning not playing that well and with the D really stepping up (I doubt this will happen against NE).

Per Wiki: Peyton Manning's career 94.4 passing rating in the NFL ranks first among active QB's with at least 1,500 passing attempts, and second all-time to Steve Young's 96.8.

 

[BGP]

Well, when a QB has a really bad day in a playoff game, its pretty rare for a team to overcome that, and it probably involved some extenuating circumstances in cases where that team still won.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good topic.

I've brought up several times on this board how Tom Brady aka Mr. Playoff's play has had very little statistical impact on the Patriots' winning or not winning the Super Bowl the last 5 years, whereas there is a HUGE linear correlation between the success of New England's defense and their Super Bowl victories (top defense each of the 3 years they won the SB, bottom half of the league on defense the other two).

 

[Liquid Tension]

I don't really like Manning (don't really dislike him either) - but am still somehow tired of all the Manning-is-a-choker talk. I think the Colts get over the hump this year, but who knows. It is pretty sweet that they get to play New England again for the chance to make the Super Bowl. It would also be very interesting if the Colts somehow won this game the same way they did the last 2 games - with Manning not playing that well and with the D really stepping up (I doubt this will happen against NE).

Per Wiki: Peyton Manning's career 94.4 passing rating in the NFL ranks first among active QB's with at least 1,500 passing attempts, and second all-time to Steve Young's 96.8.

HK, put your hard-on for Manning away...it takes away from anything logical you might say.I too am tired of the Manning choking in the playoffs comments. The problem people have is that they don't have statistical validity on their side most of the time. 10 games does not make someone great or poor. Quick example of clutchness, or lack thereof, coming from a sport that is MUCH easier to pull everything out and see how an individual did. Baseball, people talk about how clutch certain players are. Anyone in the NY area "knows" that Andy Pettitte was such a clutch pitcher for the Yankees and not having in the postseason has hurt the Yanks the last few years. When you look at the numbers his ERA in the postseason and regular season were identical. The more stats you have the more your play comes to its normal level. 76.7 is the average QB rating in the playoffs. So what is Manning's in the playoffs? As was said earlier, you would expect a lower QB rating when playing nothing but the top defenses. Also, and this is very important, one really great game or one really bad game can REALLY skew the numbers when you are dealing with such a small sample size.BTW, both Manning and Brady played very poorly last week and they are both in the Conference Championship Game. Why? Football is a team game and the QB makes up no more than 15% of the team and the number is really less because the coaching is not even part of that number.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Trent Dilfer has a ring.

And Dan Marino does not. I guess that makes Dilfer > Marino.

 

[H.K.]

Trent Dilfer has a ring.

And Dan Marino does not. I guess that makes Dilfer > Marino.

Brad Johnson

 

[parasaurolophus]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

chase, could you tell me what site you got that from?

 

[Chase Stuart]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

chase, could you tell me what site you got that from?

Ran the numbers myself, but all the raw data is from www.pro-football-reference.com.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Well, when a QB has a really bad day in a playoff game, its pretty rare for a team to overcome that, and it probably involved some extenuating circumstances in cases where that team still won.

The mirror argument could substituting the word bad for good and making the counter argument that one really 'good' performance by a QB in the post season makes it pretty rare for the opposition to overcome. The hard numbers culled by Chase denote an undeniable significantly higher W/L percentage by QBs with the higher passer rating advancing in the post season. The goal of every NFL team is to get to the Super Bowl and their is an even greater correllation.

Of the 80 possible Super Bowl QB starts, 36 came from quarterbacks already in the Hall of Fame. A QB in the HOF is undeniably superior over his career life compared to a QB who not deemed worthy for induction. The above show only those SB/QB starts already in the HOF but add in the five starts from Tom Brady and Brett Farve, shoe-ins for the HOF, then the HOF QB starts in the SB goes to 41 or over half. The HOF SB/QB start data is a statistically significant correllations that never gets discussed.

The statistically positive correllation to getting to the SB is with a superior QB is backed by hard evidence but as Chase cautions, correllation does not equal cuasation.

I've poured over numbers and personnell looking for any hard statistical correllation to post season victories connecet to superior play to any specific position and found the only single position with a statistically significant bearing to post season victory is QB. Intuitive yet widely overlooked and once again, high correllation does not equate to cuasation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Of the 80 possible Super Bowl QB starts, 36 came from quarterbacks already in the Hall of Fame. A QB in the HOF is undeniably superior over his career life compared to a QB who not deemed worthy for induction. The above show only those SB/QB starts already in the HOF but add in the five starts from Tom Brady and Brett Farve, shoe-ins for the HOF, then the HOF QB starts in the SB goes to 41 or over half. The HOF SB/QB start data is a statistically significant correllations that never gets discussed.

Using these two facts together is a bit of a catch-22. A significant part of why many HoF QBs are in the HoF is BECAUSE of their Super Bowl victories, not necessarily always the other way around.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Of the 80 possible Super Bowl QB starts, 36 came from quarterbacks already in the Hall of Fame. A QB in the HOF is undeniably superior over his career life compared to a QB who not deemed worthy for induction. The above show only those SB/QB starts already in the HOF but add in the five starts from Tom Brady and Brett Farve, shoe-ins for the HOF, then the HOF QB starts in the SB goes to 41 or over half. The HOF SB/QB start data is a statistically significant correllations that never gets discussed.

Using these two facts together is a bit of a catch-22. A significant part of why many HoF QBs are in the HoF is BECAUSE of their Super Bowl victories, not necessarily always the other way around.

Yes while still good info, these are retro-fitted stats.

 

[Liquid Tension]

QB Rating of all QBs in playoff losses, 1975-2005: 59.1QB Rating of all QBs in playoff wins, 1975-2005: 94.4Please remember that correlation does not equal causation. HTH.

chase, could you tell me what site you got that from?

Ran the numbers myself, but all the raw data is from www.pro-football-reference.com.

The QB position is worth about 15% of the teams outcome (not including the coaches worth), so it would make sense that the highest correlation would be among the position with the highest %.That being said, this weekend was a first ior at least a VERY rare outcome... Two teams that went on the road to a team coming off the bye week, in the playoffs, both had QB's who played very poorly and both won!