How important is the points per game stat to you? (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

It means that I think you are a Steven Jackson fan and that whatever analysis I present, you will find a way to poke holes in it.

To the contrary, I'm more than willing to listen. I'm just waiting for you to come up with something other than "his team is bad", which has been the case for the last two years where he was still top 5 in PPG.I think you're underestimating just how bad StL was last year. You said you could see them being the '08 Lions next year, and I think that proves it. From a fantasy standpoint, the '08 Lions would be a H-U-G-E improvement for Jackson's situation.

I think that the Rams' offense as a whole is a travesty.

Same as the last two years, where Jackson was top 5 in PPG.

I think that the OL may be worse this year than last, depending on how "NFL ready" Jason Smith is.

I'm not sure Jason Smith could be any worse than what they had. Pace has played in only half the games the last two years, and when he has played he's been but a minor shadow of his former self. Also, the line immediately gets a huge upgrade because all the injured players come back, at least early on.

I think that Marc Bulger may get spammed sheltering behind that pathetic line (he was QB22 in 2007 and QB27 during 2008, largely due to extremely poor line play)

Same as the last two years, when Jackson was top 5 PPG.

defensive coordinators opposing the Rams will routinely put 7-8 in the box and shut down the one legit weapon that the Rams DO have, Steven Jackson.

Same as last year, when Jackson was top 5 PPG.

Steven Jackson is likely to be priority #1 for every defense that he faces, and that the rest of the Rams' offense is not likely going to take that intense pressure off of Jackson

Same as last year, when Jackson was top 5 PPG.

LB's are going to be headhunting Jackson all year long. I have no faith that the rest of the Rams' offense will be able to offer a credible enough threat to keep Jackson from getting routinely gang-tackled/spammed.

Same as last year, when Jackson was top 5 PPG.

This offensive unit is likely to produce the same, or fewer, red zone opportunities to Jackson this year than they did in '07 or '08.

Last year Jackson had 19 Redzone carries....the whole year. THREE players on the Patriots team alone had more than that, and I could not find a single starting RB with fewer. Kevin Smith, of that horrible Lions team, had almost twice as many. Nobodies like Warrick Dunn, Fred Jackson, Leon Washington, and Mewelde Moore all had more than that. There is almost no way possible he could get fewer than that. Yet again, Jackson still put up solid numbers.

The point is this. Other than maybe the Raiders of a few years back when Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter were starting, I cannot recall seeing a team that was a worse situation for a RB than last year's StL team in my entire history of watching football. Yet, even in that situation, the guy put up solid numbers.

Your entire argument boils down to "his team will be bad, so he will too". His team was already one of the worst I've ever seen from a fantasy standpoint, and he was still a good fantasy player. This is the NFL, where things change fast for no visible reason. If StL becomes even simply a bad team rather than god-awful, his ceiling is huge. If they remain a horrible team, then you're still ok because he's already produced in that situation twice before, unlike all of the guys being drafted around him.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The point is this. Other than maybe the Raiders of a few years back when Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter were starting, I cannot recall seeing a team that was a worse situation for a RB than last year's StL team in my entire history of watching football. Yet, even in that situation, the guy put up solid numbers.

JJ Arrington got an even worse deal his first two years in AZ.Not that it changes your (good) point

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I'd like to thank Freebagel and the others who have taken up the Steven jackson cause.. you guys are saving me a lot of typing.

Excellent points about Wimer's rankings of other "injury prone" RBs... I guess "injury prone" only matters if the team is bad as well. Never mind that whole top 5 production on said bad team...

Some more points to consider about the Rams:

~ They were among the league's worst in starter games missed last year, and many of those games missed were on the O-line. That doesn't include 2nd string O-linemen injuries. Injuries, especially across an entire team, are borderline random. The terrible injury luck the Rams endured last year cannot be predicted for this year. That alone is a tick in their favor compared to last season.

~ I agree that it is not a given that rookie OL Smith is an upgrade over Pace. Pace was solid last year. However, the return of their starting O-linemen will help, as will the signing of Jason Brown (a very significant upgrade). If their 5 starters remain healthy, it's not a bad unit. Smith projects to be a good LT. Barron is about average at RT. Brown is a very good C. Incognito and Bell are about average at G, though Bell could be better with the added muscle he put on this offseason (he was undersized and overpowered last year). Incognito is only 25 and still can improve.

~ Jackson's injuries are not degenerative or lingering. He's not rehabbing a surgically repaired knee, he doesn't have a bulging disk in his back, he doesn't have a shoulder popping in and out of socket.... he enters camp healthy.

Also, how many of the consensus top 30 RBs in 2008 played a full slate of games? Answer