How Important to have a Big 3 QB in a 6TD/25 yd per point leauge? (1 Viewer)

[LabelMan]

How important is it to own one of the Big 3 QBs (Manning, Brady, Palmer) in a 12 team League that offers 6 points per Passing TD & 1 point per 25 passing yards.

Does this scoring system just DRAMATICALLY change the weight of the QB position? I'm always the guy the last guy to take a QB. Thinking this year may grab one of the Big 3 in the 3rd round. I'm picking 9th.

Thoughts?

 

[Spartans Rule]

It's not a dramatic change.

I drafted in a league with these same rules today and based on my projections (as well as those here at FBG), there isn't a significant dropoff until after 9 QBs are off the board.

I've got 29 TDs projected for Palmer and 28 for Brady. But I've also got many other players like Brees and Romo in the mid-20s. Going from 4 point to 6 point pass TDs only gives Palmer or Brady an extra 6-8 points of value over that next clump, which changes very little.

 

[SSOG]

How important is it to own one of the Big 3 QBs (Manning, Brady, Palmer) in a 12 team League that offers 6 points per Passing TD & 1 point per 25 passing yards.Does this scoring system just DRAMATICALLY change the weight of the QB position? I'm always the guy the last guy to take a QB. Thinking this year may grab one of the Big 3 in the 3rd round. I'm picking 9th.Thoughts?

Big 3? What about Bulger, Brees, and McNabb? I think there's much more of a "Big 6" than a "Big 3" this year. Or a "Big 1 and then 5 more very closely packed substitutes".With that said, there's virtually no difference between 4 pt passing TDs and 6 pt passing TDs. You're looking at maybe an 8-10 point difference. The difference between 1 pt per 20 passing and 1 pt per 25 passing is DRASTICALLY bigger (40 points @ 4,000 yards). A 4 per TD, 1 per 20 passing league is more QB-heavy than a 6 per TD, 1 per 25 passing league.

 

[-OZ-]

With that said, there's virtually no difference between 4 pt passing TDs and 6 pt passing TDs. You're looking at maybe an 8-10 point difference. The difference between 1 pt per 20 passing and 1 pt per 25 passing is DRASTICALLY bigger (40 points @ 4,000 yards). A 4 per TD, 1 per 20 passing league is more QB-heavy than a 6 per TD, 1 per 25 passing league.

How's that work? With 30 TDs, you're looking at a 60 point difference if you use 6 pts per TD instead of 4. (180 vs. 120)

With 4,000 yards, it's a 40 point difference between 20 y/pt and 25. (200 vs. 160)

You're usually good at this, but seem to be missing something here.

 

[Snotbubbles]

With that said, there's virtually no difference between 4 pt passing TDs and 6 pt passing TDs. You're looking at maybe an 8-10 point difference. The difference between 1 pt per 20 passing and 1 pt per 25 passing is DRASTICALLY bigger (40 points @ 4,000 yards). A 4 per TD, 1 per 20 passing league is more QB-heavy than a 6 per TD, 1 per 25 passing league.

How's that work? With 30 TDs, you're looking at a 60 point difference if you use 6 pts per TD instead of 4. (180 vs. 120)

With 4,000 yards, it's a 40 point difference between 20 y/pt and 25. (200 vs. 160)

You're usually good at this, but seem to be missing something here.

Because the difference between going from 4pts to 6pts only adds 2 pts to the projection. So the difference is 2 times whatever amount of TDs you think player X will have over player Y.So if you project Player X with 4000 yards and 30 TDs and Player Y with 3800 yards and 25 TDs your difference is:

1pt/20 + 4pt/TD

Player X: 320

Player Y: 290

Difference is 30.

1pt/25 + 6pt/TD

Player X: 340

Player Y: 302

Difference is 38.

So the difference is 8 pts from one system to the other.

If you did 4000 and 30, vs. 3500 and 20

1pt/20 + 4pt/TD the difference is 65.

1pt/25 + 6pt/TD the difference is 80.

A difference of 15.

 

[SSOG]

With that said, there's virtually no difference between 4 pt passing TDs and 6 pt passing TDs. You're looking at maybe an 8-10 point difference. The difference between 1 pt per 20 passing and 1 pt per 25 passing is DRASTICALLY bigger (40 points @ 4,000 yards). A 4 per TD, 1 per 20 passing league is more QB-heavy than a 6 per TD, 1 per 25 passing league.

How's that work? With 30 TDs, you're looking at a 60 point difference if you use 6 pts per TD instead of 4. (180 vs. 120)

With 4,000 yards, it's a 40 point difference between 20 y/pt and 25. (200 vs. 160)

You're usually good at this, but seem to be missing something here.

Snotbubbles already got it. I'm not talking about the difference between Player A in 4/TD vs. Player A in 6/TD, because that's completely irrelevant- you'll never have a player who gets 6 per TD playing against a different player who gets 4 per TD, so comparisons across different scoring systems are entirely useless. You want to compare different players within one scoring system to the same players within another scoring system (so no cross-system comparisons). I'm talking about the difference between QB1 and QB2 in 4/TD and the difference between QB1 in QB2 in 6/TD. If you expect QB1 to outscore QB2 by 40 points in 4/TD, then he's probably going to outscore QB2 by ~50 points in 6/TD. If you expect QB2 to outscore QB3 by 10 points in 4/TD, then he'll probably outscore QB3 by ~14 points in 6/TD. The difference in VBD values between QBs in 4/TD and 6/TD are going to be very small- basically, take the TD difference between QB1 and QB2 and multiply it by 2, and that's about the VBD boost QB1 gets in relation to QB2 in the new system. As you can see, the VBD boost that QBs get when you switch from 4/TD to 6/TD is really relatively small.To use some real world numbers... let's say you think Manning's going to go for 4000/30 and Palmer is going to go for 3800/28. In 6 per TD, 1 per 25 passing leagues, Manning will score 340 points while Palmer will put up 320- which means that Manning is 20 points better than Palmer in this system. In a 4 per TD, 1 per 25 passing league, Manning will score 280 points while Palmer will put up 264- meaning that Manning is only 16 points better than Palmer in this system. In this example, moving from 4/TD to 6/TD means Manning only outscored Palmer by FOUR POINTS more than he was already going to. A four point difference is minimal at best. As a result, the ranking differences between a 4/TD and 6/TD league should likewise be minimal, at best.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think its imperative in 6 point passing TD leagues with 1 pt per 20/25 pass that you have a top QB and take them a little earlier than you would in the 4 pt passing TD leagues.

I have 1 redraft league that is 6 pts per passing TD and the years I make the playoffs and/or win the league I usually have a very strong QB to lead the way. Years I missed the playoffs I usually am struggling at QB.

One thing to take into account is how often some of the top QBs like a McNabb can almost win you the game on their own when they have a 4 or 5 TD performance...really covers up holes or guys that underperform that week. Sure at the end of the season they may only show a 5 point per week difference over the QB12-20 group but they have these explosive weeks that a lot of other QBs do not have.