How long will Calvin be elite? (1 Viewer)

[Archer]

I am surprised that so many people are starting to say Calvin's value is declining, that he only has a few elite years left. My question is, what do we base that assessment off of? By all accounts, Calvin is the ultimate pro. He keeps himself in shape year round, he never gets into trouble, and he absolutely loves the game. I see him similar to the way I view Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and even Jerry Rice. These guys are/were all about football, all year long.

Rice played at a high level until his mid to late 30s. Wayne is still playing at a high level, as is Fitz (although his QB issues have hurt him recently) Even Boldin is a good example, the top end speed is gone, but he's still tough, has great hands, and runs routes beautifully. He still is a very good receiver.

Is there any reason to think Calvin won't still be dominant until at least his mid 30s? Even when he starts to lose a step one day, he runs every route there is, has the height and vertical jump to catch a ton of balls and cause problems for most DBs in the league, and he's motivated to get that SB ring. He also might be the best WR that has ever played in the NFL. That should count for something.

Seems to me he's got at least 5+ years of elite football left. Would most agree with that? If so, why start treating him like he's on the decline? And if the consensus is that he's trending down, why does anyone keep RBs past the age of 25? Because most will be done by the time they are 30, if not sooner.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

3-5 years of top-5 production is what I'm banking on, if he stays relatively healthy.

I think the field catches up with him over that time, though. He won't be head and shoulders better than the other top guys, with how young and talented WR is now.

 

[KellysHeroes]

thing is he always seems injuried, I've only owned him for 2 or 3 yrs now and I swear hes always on the injury report even though he almost always plays and produces elite numbers it does worry me. Fitz, Wayne and I don't recall Jerry having this many injuries every season. Calvin has the body and talent to produce till his mid 30s but if you want to cash in and still get a 1.01 plus sugar now is the time to do it.

 

[Soulfly3]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

 

[squistion]

I am surprised that so many people are starting to say Calvin's value is declining, that he only has a few elite years left. My question is, what do we base that assessment off of? By all accounts, Calvin is the ultimate pro. He keeps himself in shape year round, he never gets into trouble, and he absolutely loves the game. I see him similar to the way I view Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and even Jerry Rice. These guys are/were all about football, all year long.

Personally, I think he has 3-5 solid years left, but WRs can very suddenly lose it at any point from age 28 forward, so that may be the thinking. Adam Harstad, posting as SSOG, touched on this in a 2012 post (sorry I don't have a link to the thread):

I think the "WRs start to decline at age __________" trope is the wrong way of looking at it. I think a much better way of looking at it is "every year after age 28, WRs have an X% chance of seeing a major decline in NFL talent".

In other words, a WR's chances of still being elite at 29 are (1-X), while his chances of still being elite at 30 are (1-X)^2, and his chances at age 31 are (1-X)^3, and so on down the line.

I believe this model more accurately reflects real-world NFL trends, where elite WRs experience their dropoffs at wildly disparate times- 28 for Andre Rison, 30 for Amani Toomer and Eric Moulds, 32 for Torry Holt, 33 for Joe Horn and Randy Moss, 34 for Hines Ward, 35 for Marvin Harrison, 36 for Rod Smith, 37 for Isaac Bruce and Joey Galloway, 38 for Terrell Owens, 41 for Jerry Rice, etc.

Instead of envisioning WRs as smooth and predictable trend lines (we envision young players' future careers as a steady upward slope, followed by a plateau, followed by a steady downward slope),I think it's more instructive to think of WRs as ticking time bombs.

You know at some point there is going to be a sudden and unpredictable erosion in their skills which will decimate their fantasy value. You have no idea when this erosion will come.

Therefore, holding onto WRs becomes a game of craps, where you roll the dice every season and hope they don't come up snake eyes. Andre Johnson might continue being productive until well after his 35th birthday, like Terrell Owens... or he might wind up imploding in 2 years, like Torry Holt. At this point, we have no idea which shape his career will take, but we can be certain that dismissing his age as irrelevant essentially amounts to failing to accurately price risk into our evaluation of him, which is not a good thing.
Of course, at the same time, similar risks apply to young players like Jones. It's easy for us to anticipate steady improvement, but the simple fact is that a lot of young WRs simply don't improve in a straight line like you'd expect. Guys like Brandon Lloyd, Michael Clayton, Michael Crabtree, Roy Williams, Rod Gardner, etc. have all failed to show the improvements that dynasty owners assumed were essentially their birthrights early in their careers. And even some guys who have grown into their full potential such as Andre Johnson have done so in major fits and starts.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It would be nice if the Lions found a good #2 to line up across him to take some of the pressure off. Also continue to involve the TEs & as well as Bush out of the backfield.

 

[Ed Wood]

How long will Calvin be elite?

For as long as he wants to be.

 

[Tau837]

I am surprised that so many people are starting to say Calvin's value is declining, that he only has a few elite years left. My question is, what do we base that assessment off of? By all accounts, Calvin is the ultimate pro. He keeps himself in shape year round, he never gets into trouble, and he absolutely loves the game. I see him similar to the way I view Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and even Jerry Rice. These guys are/were all about football, all year long.

Personally, I think he has 3-5 solid years left, but WRs can very suddenly lose it at any point from age 28 forward, so that may be the thinking. Adam Harstad, posting as SSOG, touched on this in a 2012 post (sorry I don't have a link to the thread):

I think the "WRs start to decline at age __________" trope is the wrong way of looking at it. I think a much better way of looking at it is "every year after age 28, WRs have an X% chance of seeing a major decline in NFL talent".

In other words, a WR's chances of still being elite at 29 are (1-X), while his chances of still being elite at 30 are (1-X)^2, and his chances at age 31 are (1-X)^3, and so on down the line.

I believe this model more accurately reflects real-world NFL trends, where elite WRs experience their dropoffs at wildly disparate times- 28 for Andre Rison, 30 for Amani Toomer and Eric Moulds, 32 for Torry Holt, 33 for Joe Horn and Randy Moss, 34 for Hines Ward, 35 for Marvin Harrison, 36 for Rod Smith, 37 for Isaac Bruce and Joey Galloway, 38 for Terrell Owens, 41 for Jerry Rice, etc.

Instead of envisioning WRs as smooth and predictable trend lines (we envision young players' future careers as a steady upward slope, followed by a plateau, followed by a steady downward slope),I think it's more instructive to think of WRs as ticking time bombs.

You know at some point there is going to be a sudden and unpredictable erosion in their skills which will decimate their fantasy value. You have no idea when this erosion will come.

Therefore, holding onto WRs becomes a game of craps, where you roll the dice every season and hope they don't come up snake eyes. Andre Johnson might continue being productive until well after his 35th birthday, like Terrell Owens... or he might wind up imploding in 2 years, like Torry Holt. At this point, we have no idea which shape his career will take, but we can be certain that dismissing his age as irrelevant essentially amounts to failing to accurately price risk into our evaluation of him, which is not a good thing.
Of course, at the same time, similar risks apply to young players like Jones. It's easy for us to anticipate steady improvement, but the simple fact is that a lot of young WRs simply don't improve in a straight line like you'd expect. Guys like Brandon Lloyd, Michael Clayton, Michael Crabtree, Roy Williams, Rod Gardner, etc. have all failed to show the improvements that dynasty owners assumed were essentially their birthrights early in their careers. And even some guys who have grown into their full potential such as Andre Johnson have done so in major fits and starts.

The problem with Adam's post is that he named a number of WRs (Rison, Moulds, Toomer, Rod Smith, and Galloway, at minimum) who aren't really valid comps for someone like Calvin. The sample size for WRs who are valid comps to Calvin is very small, and thus unlikely to be predictive. Plus, the further back you go, the more different training methods, treatments, etc. were, which could have caused older comps to decline sooner than Calvin will.

IMO it is too early to consider trading him due to concerns over age, and it may never be the right thing to do.

 

[Shutout]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I agree with all of this. I think it all comes down to which side of the Andre Johnson coined does he land on? Sometimes these big great wrs can be Terrell Owens and the size helps them keep on keeping on. At other times, they are like Andre and are great, but as they get older, those injuries kill entire seasons. Then there are the guys that seem like they age ten years in one off season when they are that size. Like Antonio gates, they go from unstoppable to what happened in one year.

I love Calvin but remembering his long history of small injuries and combining that with the very hush hush knee issue and the loss of an offense that basically said "throw it to Calvin 29 times a game", I think I am a seller right now instead of a buyer.

Not that he can't or won't be great for a while now but I think when he falls, he falls fast and his age right now is the optimum time to sell for the biggest return.

 

[False Start]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I too would rather have a guy like Gordon who had one good year and personal issues a new coach who is not Norv Turner calling plays and no QB over a guy who has proven year after year he is the #1 WR and shuts up and just plays. Before you bring up last year, he had pass happy Turner calling his plays and Campbell threw it to him every time, do you see that happening again and every year for the next 5-6 years? Not sure, I can see Calvin doing it for the next three easily. How do I see it? Because he has done it consistently for years. Carefully of trying to catch the next big thing while passing up the biggest thing.

I love Gordon, but putting him ahead of Calvin is criminal in any format for any reason. Dez and Green are great too, but careful comparing anyone to Calvin or rating them better.

 

[Donsmith753]

[ESPN Poll] Is Calvin even elite?[/ESPN Poll]

 

[msudaisy26]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I agree with all of this. I think it all comes down to which side of the Andre Johnson coined does he land on? Sometimes these big great wrs can be Terrell Owens and the size helps them keep on keeping on. At other times, they are like Andre and are great, but as they get older, those injuries kill entire seasons. Then there are the guys that seem like they age ten years in one off season when they are that size. Like Antonio gates, they go from unstoppable to what happened in one year. I love Calvin but remembering his long history of small injuries and combining that with the very hush hush knee issue and the loss of an offense that basically said "throw it to Calvin 29 times a game", I think I am a seller right now instead of a buyer.

Not that he can't or won't be great for a while now but I think when he falls, he falls fast and his age right now is the optimum time to sell for the biggest return.

How is age killing Andre? The last 2 years he has been a top receiver and played all 16 games. If anything he is getting healthier as he gets older.

 

[Sweet Love]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I agree with all of this. I think it all comes down to which side of the Andre Johnson coined does he land on? Sometimes these big great wrs can be Terrell Owens and the size helps them keep on keeping on. At other times, they are like Andre and are great, but as they get older, those injuries kill entire seasons. Then there are the guys that seem like they age ten years in one off season when they are that size. Like Antonio gates, they go from unstoppable to what happened in one year.I love Calvin but remembering his long history of small injuries and combining that with the very hush hush knee issue and the loss of an offense that basically said "throw it to Calvin 29 times a game", I think I am a seller right now instead of a buyer.

Not that he can't or won't be great for a while now but I think when he falls, he falls fast and his age right now is the optimum time to sell for the biggest return.

How is age killing Andre? The last 2 years he has been a top receiver and played all 16 games. If anything he is getting healthier as he gets older.

Absolutely, which is why this is all a guesstimate...but I do think you have to consider body size/type along with all the other factors (injuries, touches, etc.) when assessing the career arch for any WR. Calvin has a very big body, and truth is, it is easier to carry around a smaller frame than a larger one as people get older. In every day life, I feel as though every time I see a male in their 50s who is over 6'3/6'4, they are walking with some kind of hitch or gingerly...now, we are not asking Calvin to play until he is in his 50s, but the question is, with the beating any WR takes (and especially him), at what point does the body deteriorate on someone with that frame?

 

[False Start]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I agree with all of this. I think it all comes down to which side of the Andre Johnson coined does he land on? Sometimes these big great wrs can be Terrell Owens and the size helps them keep on keeping on. At other times, they are like Andre and are great, but as they get older, those injuries kill entire seasons. Then there are the guys that seem like they age ten years in one off season when they are that size. Like Antonio gates, they go from unstoppable to what happened in one year.I love Calvin but remembering his long history of small injuries and combining that with the very hush hush knee issue and the loss of an offense that basically said "throw it to Calvin 29 times a game", I think I am a seller right now instead of a buyer.

Not that he can't or won't be great for a while now but I think when he falls, he falls fast and his age right now is the optimum time to sell for the biggest return.

How is age killing Andre? The last 2 years he has been a top receiver and played all 16 games. If anything he is getting healthier as he gets older.

Not hurting him at all.

Andre Johnson said he's not thinking about retiring anytime soon.

Johnson will turn 33 years old in July, but continues to play at an elite level. Despite suffering through poor quarterback play last season, he ranked third in catches (109), seventh in yards (1407), sixth in catches of 20+ yards (20) and second in catches for a first down (69). "Everybody knows that day when it's over," he said. "When that day comes, I'll have no problem stepping away. But right now I feel fine. I feel like I still have a few more years left in me." Johnson is under contract through the 2016 season.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As others have said, this is not an "all or nothing" thing. Every single year, he has less value than he did the year before - just like nearly all good, non-rookie players. He has too many positive qualities to just drop off a cliff any time soon. He has unbelievable top end speed, but even when that goes, he'll still be a huge target with a nice overall skill set. In fact, as he was never a remarkable technician, it is possible he continues to slowly develop in those areas he never had to lean on before when the massive disparity in athleticism he enjoys over his opponents starts to diminish.

On the other hand, he does take an absolute beating each and every week, which could lead to shorter career than some other receivers might enjoy.

But the big problem with all of this speculation is there are very few scenarios in which I could envision trading him anyway. He's too damn good to move if you are in contention, whether your team is young or old. Who are you going to replace him with that would improve your team? Possible I guess, but tough. If you have a team that is devoid of talent OTHER than Calvin, then yeah, I guess you could cash out now while his value is still very high and get a quick start on a rebuild. But even then, many folks would try to build around him with whatever they could cobble together.

As an owner, I have been tempted at times and have even looked around at what might be possible. But it's really really hard to give this guy up in his prime considering what I would hope to get in return is probably more than most teams are going to be willing/able to give up.

 

[T with T]

I am surprised that so many people are starting to say Calvin's value is declining, that he only has a few elite years left. My question is, what do we base that assessment off of? By all accounts, Calvin is the ultimate pro. He keeps himself in shape year round, he never gets into trouble, and he absolutely loves the game. I see him similar to the way I view Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and even Jerry Rice. These guys are/were all about football, all year long.

Rice played at a high level until his mid to late 30s. Wayne is still playing at a high level, as is Fitz (although his QB issues have hurt him recently) Even Boldin is a good example, the top end speed is gone, but he's still tough, has great hands, and runs routes beautifully. He still is a very good receiver.

Is there any reason to think Calvin won't still be dominant until at least his mid 30s? Even when he starts to lose a step one day, he runs every route there is, has the height and vertical jump to catch a ton of balls and cause problems for most DBs in the league, and he's motivated to get that SB ring. He also might be the best WR that has ever played in the NFL. That should count for something.

Seems to me he's got at least 5+ years of elite football left. Would most agree with that? If so, why start treating him like he's on the decline? And if the consensus is that he's trending down, why does anyone keep RBs past the age of 25? Because most will be done by the time they are 30, if not sooner.

good post... I like that thinking.. The way Calvin is he could have 7 more elite years left and 2-3 pretty good years...

 

[Ted Mullins]

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

Don't necessarily agree with all of these ahead of him but I do think they are all moving into the same/similar tier, whereas for a few years it seemed like there was a big gap between Calvin and everyone else. Seems to always have some nagging injuries, yet I wouldn't be surprised if he is still having double digit TD seasons in 2018-19 either. Maybe stating the obvious here, but I view TO/Rice going into their late 30s at a high level being very much an anomaly.

 

[Mene]

If you watch many Lion's games, it'll greatly reduce your estimate on how long he can maintain his elite production. He is always battling nagging injuries because he takes a ridiculous number of hard shots due to Stafford. Calvin's endless highlight reel is partially because Stafford is so inaccurate. Calvin is constantly having to leap, contort, stretch, etc.. to make catches. Some applaud Stafford's willingness to just toss it up and let Calvin figure it out, but I believe it is robbing Calvin of longevity.

 

[False Start]

If you watch many Lion's games, it'll greatly reduce your estimate on how long he can maintain his elite production. He is always battling nagging injuries because he takes a ridiculous number of hard shots due to Stafford. Calvin's endless highlight reel is partially because Stafford is so inaccurate. Calvin is constantly having to leap, contort, stretch, etc.. to make catches. Some applaud Stafford's willingness to just toss it up and let Calvin figure it out, but I believe it is robbing Calvin of longevity.

Thats an interesting outlook. Predicting injury is tough and when a guy like Calvin plays through most of them anyways, I am OK with the risk.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I tried doing a Dez for Calvin swap last off-season, not go... that was the lowest I was going

 

[Shutout]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I agree with all of this. I think it all comes down to which side of the Andre Johnson coined does he land on? Sometimes these big great wrs can be Terrell Owens and the size helps them keep on keeping on. At other times, they are like Andre and are great, but as they get older, those injuries kill entire seasons. Then there are the guys that seem like they age ten years in one off season when they are that size. Like Antonio gates, they go from unstoppable to what happened in one year.I love Calvin but remembering his long history of small injuries and combining that with the very hush hush knee issue and the loss of an offense that basically said "throw it to Calvin 29 times a game", I think I am a seller right now instead of a buyer.

Not that he can't or won't be great for a while now but I think when he falls, he falls fast and his age right now is the optimum time to sell for the biggest return.

How is age killing Andre? The last 2 years he has been a top receiver and played all 16 games. If anything he is getting healthier as he gets older.

Absolutely, which is why this is all a guesstimate...but I do think you have to consider body size/type along with all the other factors (injuries, touches, etc.) when assessing the career arch for any WR. Calvin has a very big body, and truth is, it is easier to carry around a smaller frame than a larger one as people get older. In every day life, I feel as though every time I see a male in their 50s who is over 6'3/6'4, they are walking with some kind of hitch or gingerly...now, we are not asking Calvin to play until he is in his 50s, but the question is, with the beating any WR takes (and especially him), at what point does the body deteriorate on someone with that frame?

What iwastalking about was mostly just as example when a few years ago AJ lost the season on that hammy tear. He was 30-31 then and a lot of people were saying that was it. Then of course he comes back and has good years again so I used him as an example to say you never know which side of this you get and people will build their case on the recent data.

 

[Soulfly3]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I too would rather have a guy like Gordon who had one good year and personal issues a new coach who is not Norv Turner calling plays and no QB over a guy who has proven year after year he is the #1 WR and shuts up and just plays. Before you bring up last year, he had pass happy Turner calling his plays and Campbell threw it to him every time, do you see that happening again and every year for the next 5-6 years? Not sure, I can see Calvin doing it for the next three easily. How do I see it? Because he has done it consistently for years. Carefully of trying to catch the next big thing while passing up the biggest thing.

I love Gordon, but putting him ahead of Calvin is criminal in any format for any reason. Dez and Green are great too, but careful comparing anyone to Calvin or rating them better.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

 

[False Start]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I too would rather have a guy like Gordon who had one good year and personal issues a new coach who is not Norv Turner calling plays and no QB over a guy who has proven year after year he is the #1 WR and shuts up and just plays. Before you bring up last year, he had pass happy Turner calling his plays and Campbell threw it to him every time, do you see that happening again and every year for the next 5-6 years? Not sure, I can see Calvin doing it for the next three easily. How do I see it? Because he has done it consistently for years. Carefully of trying to catch the next big thing while passing up the biggest thing.

I love Gordon, but putting him ahead of Calvin is criminal in any format for any reason. Dez and Green are great too, but careful comparing anyone to Calvin or rating them better.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

 

[Soulfly3]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I too would rather have a guy like Gordon who had one good year and personal issues a new coach who is not Norv Turner calling plays and no QB over a guy who has proven year after year he is the #1 WR and shuts up and just plays. Before you bring up last year, he had pass happy Turner calling his plays and Campbell threw it to him every time, do you see that happening again and every year for the next 5-6 years? Not sure, I can see Calvin doing it for the next three easily. How do I see it? Because he has done it consistently for years. Carefully of trying to catch the next big thing while passing up the biggest thing.

I love Gordon, but putting him ahead of Calvin is criminal in any format for any reason. Dez and Green are great too, but careful comparing anyone to Calvin or rating them better.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

I dont think you understand what Im saying...

 

[False Start]

If I owned him, Id be selling. I absolutely love Calvin. Joy to watch. But for dynasty, Id sell if Im looking 2-3yrs down the road.

Big, big boy, and the types of injuries he's been dealing with can really slow him down.

Right now, I have all of Gordon, Dez, D Thomas and AJ Green ahead

I too would rather have a guy like Gordon who had one good year and personal issues a new coach who is not Norv Turner calling plays and no QB over a guy who has proven year after year he is the #1 WR and shuts up and just plays. Before you bring up last year, he had pass happy Turner calling his plays and Campbell threw it to him every time, do you see that happening again and every year for the next 5-6 years? Not sure, I can see Calvin doing it for the next three easily. How do I see it? Because he has done it consistently for years. Carefully of trying to catch the next big thing while passing up the biggest thing.

I love Gordon, but putting him ahead of Calvin is criminal in any format for any reason. Dez and Green are great too, but careful comparing anyone to Calvin or rating them better.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

I highlighted and underlined the most important part of my statement.

I dont think you understand what Im saying...

I do. Just a little fun is all. Quite simply I am not putting any player in front of Calvin while he is still elite.