How Long Will Twitter Survive With Musk? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

@Runkle recently posted:

A Last-Longer over/under bet on Liz Truss as England's PM vs. how long Twitter survives with Elon running it would have been an amazing bet. "My money's on the lettuce".

She lasted 49 days.

What's your guess on how long Twitter will survive with Musk?

The assumption is he does what he's already said he'll do and appoints a CEO as I don't think anyone reasonably expects him to remain CEO of three big companies. But it also seems pretty clear he'll be leading regardless of who the CEO is.

What's your take on how long Twitter survives?

 

[AAABatteries]

I don’t see this really mattering long term - he’ll eventually get bored and go back to other stuff and Twitter will continue.

 

[bigbottom]

This should be a landslide.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

3+ but who knows what traffic will look like. Keep in mind that AOL still exists.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Not posting in this one. I'll be on ICQ if you want my answer
-QG

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He'll appoint a CEO soon and it'll be business as usual.

 

[The General]

If it’s not around in 3 years the internet tubes must have been severed by Bigfoot.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Not posting in this one. I'll be on ICQ if you want my answer
-QG

We're good. But thanks.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

”With Musk” qualifier complicates it a bit as he may sell within 3 years but otherwise I’m about 90% on 3+.

 

[Ilov80s]

3+ but who knows what traffic will look like. Keep in mind that AOL still exists.

Exactly my thoughts

 

[Joe Bryant]

”With Musk” qualifier complicates it a bit as he may sell within 3 years but otherwise I’m about 90% on 3+.

Agreed. I just wanted to be consistent as that's how the poster described it.

 

[ChicoCat]

IF Musk has some angle....it's some sort of alien angle that our mathmaticians and physicists haven't figured out yet.

 

[Insomniac]

Does Musk sell it to someone else at a huge loss count as surviving? He can afford to run it for a long time losing a couple of billion a year if he wants to.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think his ego will prevent him from selling/bailing anytime soon. 3+ years seems likely

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks @BeTheMatch for the vote. Can you elaborate on why you think it only survives 50-100 more days?

 

[The Z Machine]

I think Musk as CEO may last less than 6 mo, but Twitter as a company will survive.

 

[SWC]

3+ but who knows what traffic will look like. Keep in mind that AOL still exists.

this is what i was thinking it might live a long time but heck myspace is still around take that to the bank brohans

 

[BeTheMatch]

Thanks @BeTheMatch for the vote. Can you elaborate on why you think it only survives 50-100 more days?

"With Musk" is the key for me. Twitter will exist in some fashion, but he'll bow out within 100 days. He just needs to find an exit that will allow him to claim persecution or cancel culture or whatever he thinks will allow him to preserve some measure of his fading stature.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What's your take on how long Twitter survives?

Why would Twitter die?

Better question would be... How long will it be until Twitter is worth more than Musk paid?

 

[Joe Bryant]

"With Musk" is the key for me. Twitter will exist in some fashion, but he'll bow out within 100 days. He just needs to find an exit that will allow him to claim persecution or cancel culture or whatever he thinks will allow him to preserve some measure of his fading stature.

Interesting. Thanks.

 

[jon_mx]

Twitter will not only be around but will be as strong as ever.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think Musk as CEO may last less than 6 mo, but Twitter as a company will survive.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't have a CEO in place in 6 weeks. He's already said he'd do that. Trying to be CEO of 3 big companies is not reasonable.

 

[Van Dyman]

Thanks @BeTheMatch for the vote. Can you elaborate on why you think it only survives 50-100 more days?

"With Musk" is the key for me. Twitter will exist in some fashion, but he'll bow out within 100 days. He just needs to find an exit that will allow him to claim persecution or cancel culture or whatever he thinks will allow him to preserve some measure of his fading stature.

Ha, maybe. Even Elon says "How do you make a small fortune in social media? Start out with a large one."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1593415171149791232

ETA: why is my link not showing up correctly?
ETA2: Derp. Weird being back on FBG again after PSF moved to discord.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Why would Twitter die?

That's a question for @Runkle.

 

[massraider]

but

Hey if Tom from MySpace came out of nowhere to buy Twitter out of bankruptcy that might be kinda cool.

He used to be a friend of mine.

 

[The General]

Hi new CEO. I fired or laid off 70% of your staff, set up the company for lawsuits throughout the EU, I will be watching your every move and live blogging about it. Here are the keys!

 

[Joe Bryant]

Between the World Cup, a busy NFL Sunday and reinstating the person we're not talking about here, I have to think today was about as stressful a workload for the servers as Twitter's had in a little while. I don't know how it was everywhere, and I'm certain with that many users there were some issues in some places, but servers seemed to be fine for me all day. Performance was totally normal.

 

[Van Dyman]

I voted <50 because "with Musk" seemed like it could be understood a few different ways. I think he'll have somebody else running the show by then.

 

[snogger]

I closed my account today. Between the no moderating of hate and racist tweets, and now bringing back tweeters he likes regardless of the reason they were banned, while banning those that dare call him out..

 

[mr. furley]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

 

[Da Guru]

Between the World Cup, a busy NFL Sunday and reinstating the person we're not talking about here, I have to think today was about as stressful a workload for the servers as Twitter's had in a little while. I don't know how it was everywhere, and I'm certain with that many users there were some issues in some places, but servers seemed to be fine for me all day. Performance was totally normal.

If nobody knew Musk took over, it would just be business as usual. Same if Facebook changed hands. Use it or don`t use it is up the individual

 

[Desert_Power]

Does Musk sell it to someone else at a huge loss count as surviving? He can afford to run it for a long time losing a couple of billion a year if he wants to.

Yeah. This thing is lighting cash on fire right now, but he has a pretty big pile of it.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Not posting in this one. I'll be on ICQ if you want my answer
-QG

As a coda to this non-post, as impossible as it sounds ICQ still exists btw with 11 million monthly users around the world

Linky

Eh-oh! Indeed
-QG

 

[Captain Cranks]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

 

[jon_mx]

feels like he understands that people will participate MORE if they hate him. it works for people like Howard Stern, etc. and has for forever.

twitter will be around a good long while i assume considering it's widely used outside of the US and it feels like no one outside the US really cares about Elon Musk trolling.

I don't think Stern was ever striving to be hated. Controversial? Sure. Not hated.

Musk has no desire to ne hated. He is trying to provide a platform where different viewpoints can be heard without getting shutdown by the gatekeepers. Musk haters believe in gatekeepers.

 

[fatness]

Why would Twitter die?

That's a question for @Runkle.

Joe, I don't understand why you're calling out @Runkle. You asked him about his comment one or more times in the Twitter thread. Now you've quoted him in opening this thread, and now you're mentioning him again. Seems a bit fixated on him. This topic is just as valid and will get get as many replies without repeatedly mentioning another member's name. I don't think you want us to start topics based on quotes from someone else in another topic. Just my 2 cents. I have no opinion in this poll and I don't know @Runkle btw.

 

[Judge Smails]

It’ll be around well after 3 years. But I despise what he’s done. He wildly overpaid for Twitter and when he couldn’t get out of it the writing was on the wall. They had to cut costs with that debt service. But no reason to treat people the way he did. They will be doing Harvard Business Review case studies using him as what not to do as a leader. Stripe CEO will be the case study of how to do cuts the right way. Elon the opposite.

 

[[scooter]]

I didn't vote because there are too many variables behind the phrase "With Musk":

- with Musk as hands-on owner and de facto CEO?
- with Musk as Jerry Jones-style owner, with a puppet CEO who takes care of the boring stuff but doesn't actually run the company?
- with Musk as hands-off owner who gives full control to the CEO?

 

[jon_mx]

It’ll be around well after 3 years. But I despise what he’s done. He wildly overpaid for Twitter and when he couldn’t get out of it the writing was on the wall. They had to cut costs with that debt service. But no reason to treat people the way he did. They will be doing Harvard Business Review case studies using him as what not to do as a leader. Stripe CEO will be the case study of how to do cuts the right way. Elon the opposite.

The primary motivation to fire people was not to cut cost. Musk was cleaning house to eliminate the culture there. Musk wants people there who support his vision. Getting a leaner meaner organization is a secondary goal. Musk is very particular about who works for him and when he bought Twitter much of the existing workforce openly talked about quitting. The existing workforce and Musk ate not a match and Musk knew that even before he bought it.

 

[jon_mx]

I didn't vote because there are too many variables behind the phrase "With Musk":

- with Musk as hands-on owner and de facto CEO?
- with Musk as Jerry Jones-style owner, with a puppet CEO who takes care of the boring stuff but doesn't actually run the company?
- with Musk as hands-off owner who gives full control to the CEO?

Musk has no interest in being a hands off owner. He is very much going to direct Twitter into implementing his vision with whomever he chooses as a CEO. That is why he bought Twitter. It was not to make money.

 

[Mrs. Rannous]

That is why he bought Twitter. It was not to make money.

Well, he succeeded at one thing.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don’t think Elon wants to be hated. Actually the total opposite. He sees himself as a hero and liberator. When he put out his poll for reinstating you know who, he pretty much said most of the “No” votes had to be from bots that need to be eliminated.

 

[Joe Bryant]

If nobody knew Musk took over, it would just be business as usual. Same if Facebook changed hands. Use it or don`t use it is up the individual

That's how it feels to me as well. But with the predictions of doom with all the people fired, I wondered how it would hold up to what had to be a high-traffic weekend with the events going on.

I'm super interested in this as we operate the forums here in a similar structure trying to accommodate traffic at peak times and such, even if it's microscopic in comparison.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think it’s much less likely to crash than it it was lose money from sponsors, slowly lose some of its core users and turn into a Facebook/Reddit. That’s still a big successful business but it lacks the “credibility” and “prestige” of Twitter. I’m not saying Twitter ever deserved those things but there is not doubt that Twitter drives much more in the world of news and entertainment than FB or Reddit.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think it’s much less likely to crash than it it was lose money from sponsors, slowly lose some of its core users and turn into a Facebook/Reddit. That’s still a big successful business but it lacks the “credibility” and “prestige” of Twitter. I’m not saying Twitter ever deserved those things but there is not doubt that Twitter drives much more in the world of news and entertainment than FB or Reddit.

Interesting. I thought the worry was very much about crashing and not being able to functionally operate without the staff that was cut.

My understanding is Twitter has been pretty awful with sponsor advertising for years.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Why would Twitter die?

That's a question for @Runkle.

I think he was making a joke, that you’re taking to heart. The joke was also a play on how short the last British PM lasted.

It’s pretty obvious that even if Musk was a complete moron (and he’s very much the opposite) something as established as Twitter isn’t going to crash and burn so quickly.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don’t think Elon wants to be hated. Actually the total opposite. He sees himself as a hero and liberator.

I think that's an interesting point and one that makes the topic interesting. I'm not sure what he wants from this.

 

[bigbottom]

Between the World Cup, a busy NFL Sunday and reinstating the person we're not talking about here, I have to think today was about as stressful a workload for the servers as Twitter's had in a little while. I don't know how it was everywhere, and I'm certain with that many users there were some issues in some places, but servers seemed to be fine for me all day. Performance was totally normal.

If nobody knew Musk took over, it would just be business as usual. Same if Facebook changed hands. Use it or don`t use it is up the individual

I would think the whole Twitter Blue change with paying a monthly charge for premium features and being deprioritized if you don’t pay, and people losing verified status, etc. will be noticeable to Twitter users. Those seem to be more than business as usual.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I would think the whole Twitter Blue change with paying a monthly charge for premium features and being deprioritized if you don’t pay, and people losing verified status, etc. will be noticeable to Twitter users. Those seem to be more than business as usual.

Agreed. That would be a significant change. Will be interesting to see if that happens and how it goes.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Another made up narrative bought into hook, line, and sinker. How many times are people going to fall for this stuff?